© Valery Afanasyev, 2017

ISBN 978-5-4485-4472-9

Created in the intellectual publishing system Ridero

European seers predicted big problems for Europe: from meteor showers to floods. At the same time, the collapse of the EU and the economic crisis can be considered minor negative factors. It's about about sudden extinction and the coming war.

Decisive for the future of Europe will be the spread of an unknown epidemic by Islamists and the collapse of the banking system in the fall of 1919, which will lead to paralysis of power, rampant banditry, revolution and the coming to power of the communists in the spring of 2022. At the end of summer of the same year a short period will begin nuclear war, and in the fall of the same year there will be a three-day eclipse with huge casualties.

The book contains predictions about the future fate of Europe. Based on the philosophy of history, an attempt is made to comprehend the events predicted in the prophecies. The collection will be of interest to both the general reading public and specialists wishing to broaden their horizons.

Preface

“Europe will be empty. This will happen as a result of a war between the United States and a Muslim country, which will use chemical weapon. Terrible diseases, blindness, ulcers, ulcers will strike Europeans. Cold and empty Europe will coexist with a strong Russia.”

Vanga

A dangerous event for Europe could be the emergence of an unknown contagious disease. The collapse of the dollar and the world banking system in the fall of 1919 could lead to paralysis of power, rampant banditry and the rise of communists to power in the spring of 2022. At the end of the summer of the same year, the war will begin, and in the fall of the same year there will be solar eclipse, from which many people will die. Ruben Stein writes about this in his book “The Third World War is Coming!” .

Stein is trying to understand the sequence of future events. In his opinion, the banking collapse in Europe will be preceded by the spread of an unknown disease brought by migrants from Africa. The authorities will try to contain the economic collapse by raising taxes, which will put the majority of the population on the brink of poverty.

In Germany, Merkel will be replaced by communists. They will take measures to remove savings from the population. The struggle between Islam and Christianity will intensify. Migrants will begin to be expelled. German dissatisfaction with Merkel's policy of forced Islamization has already provoked numerous protests.

According to Stein, since 2000, Germany has become a victim of the global financial mafia, when the media began to promote left-wing socialist ideology. Honest journalists began to be persecuted, and alternative media appeared on the Internet. State media promoted hatred of Russia and the slogan “Islam belongs to Germany!”, despite protests (Pegida). The police were forced to hide the crimes of visiting Muslims. For Germans accustomed to order, this was a real shock that Merkel will never be forgiven for.

The SPD, a party of bureaucrats who support socialism, will give not only taxpayers’ money, but also private savings to support banks, as was the case in 2008, but this time the banks will collapse and destroy the entire economy. The rich will go abroad, and the poor will be required to pay taxes, interest on loans and insurance, which will lead to increased poverty. Against the backdrop of an epidemic, famine, depreciation of money and the severity of the authorities, the preconditions for revolution will appear. By this time, military service had already been abolished and fewer and fewer people wanted to work for the state.

The collapse of banks will cause a chain reaction of non-fulfillment of contracts for the supply of vital goods and services. The state will stop social payments, food will be distributed on ration cards, crime will increase, and epidemics will begin. Many will try to leave, and the poor will gradually die out, that is, the situation in Germany will resemble the current situation in Ukraine. Considering that today Germany is the locomotive of European integration, it is not difficult to imagine the situation in other European countries.

Features of oral prophecies

Among the European prophecies of the future, there are several that are quite comparable with each other and give a fairly specific picture of events. These predictions are made, as a rule, by mediums - people with extrasensory abilities. Thanks to their senses, they are able to perceive pictures that are invisible to ordinary people. They enter a trance state and see pictures that they interpret in their own way.

The main problem with such predictions is their interpretation. Despite the fact that the pictures are often seen as correct, there is not enough knowledge, words, and experience to interpret them. Psychics more often “see” events in their country, in the place where they are this moment are located. Powerful emotions and the experiences of people leave traces in the ether that seers are able to perceive. There are many false prophets who distort forecasts and deliberately mislead people. Another difficulty is that many predictions, like a game of broken telephone, move from one prophecy to another and are distorted in the process.

Predictions belong to the genre of oral statements; mistakes are permissible in them; even deliberate falsification is permissible. Therefore, you cannot limit yourself to one prediction, but rather compare several similar prophecies. True, even in this case it is impossible to guarantee the reliability of a particular prophecy. An error that crept into one famous prediction, can move into others and multiply.

When analyzing divinations, you should pay attention to where the divination is made. As a rule, future events can only be predicted in the place where the seer is located, but there may be exceptions.

The earlier the events were predicted, the more blurred the picture and, conversely, the closer the predicted event, the more clearly and with many details it can be described. This can be seen if you compare the predictions in chronological order.

Strange as it may seem, the weakest point in the prophecies is the exact dates of the forecasts. Since the prophets are always asked when this or that event will happen, they give some dates that are approximate and, as a rule, are not fulfilled. This is evidenced by at least numerous exact dates for the end of the world, which have not yet materialized. Mediums see a picture of the future, which does not indicate the date of the event, as on modern cameras. For them, preceding and accompanying events are important - unique markers indicating the proximity of another event.

Considering that any war is a religious war, it would be correct to divide all forecasts into Catholic (European) and Orthodox (Russian). If Catholic prophecies are replete with pictures reminiscent of the End of the World, then Orthodox Christians often talk about the coming of the Antichrist. If Orthodox forecasts predict a historic victory for Russia, despite many bitter defeats, then Catholic forecasts speak of a victory for Europe, but predict the end of the Catholic Church as world organization. All this shows that in prophecies we are dealing with a “desired future”, which may differ significantly from the real state of affairs.

European seers predicted:

America will start a war in the Middle East. (Waldviertler, Teresa Musco). The collapse of the world economy (Pierre Frobert). Protests and uprisings in many countries, left-wing radicals are provoking an escalation. Strong waves in Italy and France (La Salette, Don Bosco, Kugelbeer, Marie Mesmin, Sri Babaji). In Italy there is a hunt for priests. The Pope with two (four) cardinals flees to Switzerland, Cologne (Waldviertler, Lied der Linde, Don Bosco, Pfarrer von Baden, Bruder Adam). The fleet (Irlmaier) is concentrated in the Mediterranean Sea. New conflict in the Balkans (Bruder Adam, Waldviertler). Peace talks (Budapest?) on the fate of the Balkans. Two hired killers - a small African and a white one - kill a representative of Russia (America?) (van Rensburg, Papst Johannes XXIII.). Israel is being destroyed (Waldviertler, van Rensburg).

The first to apply atomic weapons Chinese (Jüngling von Prag, Waldviertler, Onit, Erna Stieglitz, Parravinci). After the destruction of Prague, American drones disperse chemical and biological munitions from Prague to the Baltic Sea coast, creating an impassable zone and thereby cutting off supplies Russian army(Erna Stieglitz).

The German army, using space lasers under the leadership of the “Great Kaiser,” finishes off the remnants of the Russian army (Düsseldorfer Kapuzinerpater, Pfarrer von Baden, van Rensburg, Bruder Adam). The French (Waldviertler) join it. Between Ulm and Lyon, as well as in Westphalia, a large number of Russian troops are destroyed (Spielbähn, Bauer Jasper, Mönch aus Werl, Erna Stieglitz, Pfarrr von Baden). The population kills the remaining Russian soldiers (Waldviertler).

In October-December, a three-day blackout due to a comet, death on earth (Lied der Linde, Kugelbeer, Anna Maria Taigi, Seher von Vorarlberg, Johannes Friede, Elena Aiello, Marie Julie Jahenny de la Faudais, Sepp Wudy, Fatima, Sajaha, Ilu-Tani, Hopi). In the Czech Republic, the explosion of a nuclear weapons depot will cause a fracture of the earth's crust, ash emission and an earthquake (Waldviertler, Lied der Linde, Seher aus Hessen, Pater Johannides, Leon Theunis).

The Earth will change its orbit, the poles will change (Waldviertler, Josef Stockert, Lied der Linde, Nostradamus, Edgar Cayce, De la Vega, Leon Theunis). Meteorite fall (Veronika Lueken). The earth will be covered with ashes (Frau aus Ostbayern, Johannes Friede). Darkening and shifting the center of the earth will bring more victims than war (Johannes Friede, Josef Stockert). Heat (Garabandal, Veronika Lueken). The war will last three months (Mühlhiasl, Jasper, Sepp Wudy, Andreas Rill, Ilu-Tani).

Cities destroyed, especially Prague, Paris, Marseilles, Antwerp, Hamburg and London (Blinder Jüngling von Prag, Sibylle von Prag, La Salette, Anton Johansson). Flooding in northern Germany will reach Cologne (Anton Johansson). Half the population will die (Josef Stockert, Mühlhiasl, Lied der Linde). England and the USA will lose their influence. The USA will fall into five parts (Anton Johansson, van Rensburg, Sybillen). France, Poland and Hungary will become monarchies (Bauer Jasper, Waldviertler, Jeanne-Louise Ramonet). The Scandinavian countries, Portugal and Spain will unite. Africa will become Christian (van Rensburg, Lied der Linde).

Germany will become an empire leading in Europe and the world (van Rensburg, Nostradamus, Templeroffenbarungen, Sajaha, Sybillische Bücher). It will include all former territories, Switzerland and Austria (van Rensburg, Waldviertler, Feldpostbriefe, Lied der Linde, Sybillische). Holland, Belgium and Italy will unite (Sybillische Bücher, Lied der Linde). The new German Kaiser will be crowned by the Pope in Cologne. The Catholic Church will fall apart (Waldviertler, Lied der Linde, Malachias, Kugelbeer). It will get warmer in Europe. Tropical plants will grow (Waldviertler, Anna Henle). IN Atlantic Ocean A large island (Pierre Frobert) will appear.

Russian blogger Nero predicts the explosion of Yellowstone and Vesuvius, widespread flooding and a five-year “nuclear winter” due to toxic gases filling the atmosphere. Deteriorating economic situation in Western Europe up to revolutions. The collapse of the EU and the war between European partners, where states are on the verge of anarchy. Many fascists will appear to fight Arabs and Africans. Everyone is running away from Europe, there are military attempts to break through our border. Old diseases and new epidemics appear. The construction of border barriers along the border is intensifying. Something like a wall on both sides. Deterioration of the economic situation due to the inability to trade throughout Europe. Cracks and holes in the earth's crust. Flooding. Volcanic eruptions. European sea and European swamp. Japan doesn't. USA no. Canada is not. Mexico is torn. Africa has changed. Because of large quantity swamps and fogs one has to settle in mountainous areas.

And here are the words of the Polish monk Andrzeja Czeslawa (+1980): “I saw soldiers crossing the sea in such small round boats, but it was clear from their faces that they were not Europeans. I saw destroyed houses and Italian children crying. It looked like an infidel attack on Europe. It seems to me that some big tragedy will begin in Italy, part of the Italian boot will be under water. Volcano or earthquake? I saw scenes of great trouble. When missiles from the other side of the ocean hit the water, the huge waves will be like mountains. Mountains of water are moving towards Europe. People are drowning and suffocating in Gibraltar, Spain! The Sahara, the valley of the Italian peninsula, on the Po River is flooded. Rome disappears under water with all the museums, with all the beautiful buildings... In Poland, ten percent of the population will die. I know it's millions, but France and Germany will lose more. Italy will suffer the most. This applies to all of Europe. Poverty is coming."

Agree, these glories inspire little optimism. And here are the words of an unknown French nun from the city of Tours about the events in Paris: “The revolution will begin in Italy, almost at the same time as in France. The church will be without a Pope for some time. The revolution will spread to every city in France. This revolution will only last a few months, but it will be very scary because blood will flow everywhere. Paris will look like a slaughterhouse. All churches will be closed. Many bishops and priests will be put to death. The Archbishop of Paris will be killed. Many other priests in Paris will have their throats cut. The wicked will be masters for a year and several months."

The greatest drama can be heard in the prophecies of the German Franz Kugelber (1922): “Strong earthquakes will destroy many European countries. Tsunami waves will hit the mainland. Many people will die. A general famine will begin. Uprisings will begin in Europe, after which many rebels will be thrown into prison or executed.

A surprise attack will come from the East. Soldiers with red stars will attack Germany, France, Italy and England. There is unrest and destruction everywhere. The areas around the Rhine would be heavily destroyed by the air and subsequent military invasion.

Paris is destroyed by fire. Marcel will fall into the abyss that will appear in the sea at night. Massacre in Rome and mountains of corpses. The Pope will escape. Three days of darkness will begin during a terrible thunderstorm and earthquake. There is a smell of sulfur in the air. The earth will be empty and become a huge cemetery. The few surviving people leave their homes. They collect the dead and bury them in mass graves. There is silence on the streets, factories and cars stand idle because no one can put them into operation.”

Migrants bring Europe to its kneesPhoto: REUTERS

Russian scientist Vladimir Shalak conducted his own Internet investigation

WELCOME TO GERMANY!

I read a very interesting article by Ulyana Skoybeda in Komsomolskaya Pravda - “Chronicle of the death of Germany,” says Vladimir Shalak, Doctor of Philosophy. - She amazed me. I wanted to check for myself what was really happening there, where the flow of migrants came from. I chose the microblogging network Twitter as a source of information.

- Why, Vladimir Ivanovich?

He reacts most quickly to all events in the world. Literally within a minute of each other after what happened. It presents many different points of view. And, among other things, it is possible to find out a lot of additional information. Who specifically wrote, where from, etc. Following in the footsteps of Komsomolskaya Pravda, I began my investigation using the method of content analysis.

- What kind of method?

Indeed, there are still heated debates surrounding Skoybeda’s “German chronicle”. Some of our former citizens write from there that everything is calm in Vaterland, this, they say, Russian media hysteria is being whipped up, Kremlin propaganda. Although the reaction of the head of the UN, the Chancellor of Germany, and other European leaders shows that the matter smells of kerosene...

There is a completely strict method of analysis based on the frequency of occurrence of words or phrases in texts, headlines, etc. I've been doing this for 22 years. A logician by profession, after graduate school I worked for seven years at the Research Center for Artificial Intelligence in Pereslavl-Zalessky, where I became interested in content analysis of texts. Including on the Internet. For this purpose I created special computer programs. Content analysis is a rigorous method. If anyone suddenly has questions, you can always refer to specific sources and prove that these are not my fantasies, but a harsh reality.

Using the computer system, SKAI launched a search and collection of messages for the request "refugees" (REFUGEES). I searched Twitter only for original messages. It was necessary for the person to actually write a tweet using this word. For the purity of the investigation, it is the original that is important. If we also take retweets into account, there will be hundreds of thousands of messages, which will only muddy the picture.

Quickly collected more than 19 thousand texts on Twitter. It became interesting to know the names of which European countries are most often mentioned in messages. The countries I chose for analysis were Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Great Britain, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Sweden. Well, and Ukraine.

It turned out that Germany is mentioned in the same context as refugees in half of all messages. Those. two and a half times more often than its neighbor Austria, and almost five times more often than Hungary, through which tens of thousands of refugees transit. England, with a modest 6%, is in fourth place. It’s not worth talking about other countries.

So what is happening to Germany? If we limit ourselves to tweets in which only she is mentioned, then the overwhelming majority of them - 93% - are admiration for the hospitality and humane policy of the Germans towards refugees.

Germany Yes! Leftists spray a graffiti on a train sayin "Welcome, refugees" in Arabic

Lovely people - video of Germans welcoming Syrian refugees to their community

Respect! Football fans saying "Welcome Refugees" across stadiums in Germany.

This Arabic Graffiti train is running in Dresden welcoming refugees: (ahlan wa sahlan - a warm welcome).

"We love Germany!" cry relieved refugees at Munich railway station

Thousands welcome refugees to Germany - Sky News Australia

Wherever this German town is that welcomed a coach of Syrian refugees with welcome signs and flowers -thank you.

Germany Yes! Graffiti on the train "Welcome" to refugees in Arabic.

Wonderful people (video) Germans invite Syrian refugees into their communities.

Respect! Football fans say "Welcome" to refugees in Germany.

Thousands welcome refugees to Germany, etc.

I noticed the extraordinary popularity of the slogan “Welcome, refugees!” I decided to repeat the collection of information, this time specifically with this invitation. I collected 5704 original, I emphasize, tweets containing the phrase “Welcome, refugees.” Again, excluding all retweets, which would greatly increase the volume of analyzed data, but would not bring clarity.

The first three places: Germany - 76.8%, Austria - 12.4%, and England only 4.6%.

- Impressive statistics!

So I had a suspicion that not everything was all right with Germany. As my friend Mikhail Dymshits likes to joke, even if you are paranoid, this does not mean that no one is stalking you.

Of course, life in Germany is prosperous, with high benefits for migrants, but there are other rich countries in Europe. The same England, France, Sweden, Norway...

But Twitter invites mainly to Germany! Intrigued. I continue my investigation without leaving the computer. I’m assessing which accounts publish messages with “Welcome, refugees” and mentions of Germany. Having selected only those accounts that indicated their regional affiliation, I built a rating. The following chart shows the percentages of the top eight countries that invite refugees to visit welcoming Germany.

Oddly enough, Germany itself, with 6.4%, was only in third place. The first two places were divided between them faithful friends- England with 19.2% and the USA with 17.0%.

It is interesting that in the initial study the percentages of England and the USA were almost half as much as they are now.

The moral is that Germany itself is not particularly keen on being overrun by hordes of unfortunate refugees. But the rest of the world, led by the USA and England, is tearfully persuading them to take advantage of traditional German hospitality.

What happens? The two Anglo-Saxon allied countries have been deliberately inviting refugees in recent weeks to... the Germans! Amazing discovery you did it, Vladimir Ivanovich, congratulations! This is where the ears of the humanitarian catastrophe with migrants in Europe are sticking out.

Thanks to the analysis, it became clear to me that the current invasion of refugees, already called the great migration of peoples, is a purposeful campaign.

Let's dig deeper!

- Who gave the command? Obama? Cameron? Head of State Department Kerry?

These figures themselves, of course, will not appear on Twitter. But interesting are the performers who, clearly on someone’s command, began simultaneously inviting refugees to join the Germans.

1) On August 30 at 10:25:11, the message “Wonderful “#REFUGEES WELCOME” was posted in the @LotteLeicht1 account feed. Banners draped across football stadiums in #Germany this weekend. Via @markito0171 http://t.co/8Nhyi7Ujfy "(" Wonderful "#REFUGEES WELCOME." Banners at football stadiums in Germany this weekend.") It immediately received more than 2,000 retweets. Now there are many more of them.

Lotte Leicht is not an ordinary lady. Director of the European bureau of the famous human rights organization Human Rights Watch (HRW) headquartered in the United States. Lotte’s office is in Brussels, the capital of the European Union. But, as we see, refugees are being invited not to Belgium but to Germany.

2) On August 30 at 08:08:37, the message ""REFUGEES WELCOME" was posted in the @JfxM account feed. Banners draped across Germany"s football stadiums this weekend. (@markito0171) http://t.co/fJYq0xXrXe", (similar to Lotte Leicht's message), which received more than 1,600 retweets.

This is Jack Moore, a journalist from England. World Reporter @NewsweekEurope. Founded @WorldOutline. Formerly at The Times/King's College. London, England.

3) On August 31 at 23:59:06, the message “In Germany, tabloids welcome refugees. In Britain, they propose sending the army to keep them out. http://t.co/gKMdQX4UDt” was posted on the @WashingtonPost account feed. (In Germany, the tabloids welcome refugees. In Britain, they propose sending the army to keep them out.) The Washington Post newspaper is known all over the world. Washington, you know, is overseas.

There have been a lot of such messages, each of which receives hundreds and thousands of retweets, in recent weeks.

BOTS FROM TEXAS

Further analysis showed that the matter is not limited to individual enthusiasts, Vladimir Shalak continues the story. - Entire squads of bots came to help. There are various methods to determine whether the owners of the accounts from which messages are coming are real people or are computer programs controlled from outside. So-called bots.

- You can't hide anything on Twitter!

That's why he's good.

Here are just a few examples.

1) On August 27, forty bots @changing_news, @changing_news1,…, @changing_news39 from the USA simultaneously at 08:00:33 - the working day has begun! - publish the message "A new welcome: Activists launch home placement service for refugees in Germany and Austria http://t.co/jA3MX1J6ak #News #Change #Help" (Welcome: Activists launch home placement service for refugees in Germany and Austria) . All forty tweets were gone in one second!

This group of bots belongs to the resource "Your News Will Never Be The Same!" the same message, changing only the lowercase letters of the beginning of the words to uppercase ones. To make it look like a new tweet: "A New Welcome: Activists Launch Home Placement Service For Refugees In Germany And Austria http://t.co/C2J4QiTvoY #News #Change #Help."

2) Another group, 50 bots, which are united by the fact that they were all created on February 14, 2014 in the time interval from 06:02:00 to 06:24:00, publish the same message on August 31 at 17:26:08 " #hot Football Fans in Germany Unite with "Refugees Welcome" Message http://t.co/aNfawL0Ogd #prebreak #best". (Football fans in Germany support the slogan "Refugees! Welcome"). Their location could not be determined.

Two Anglo-Saxon allied countries have been deliberately inviting refugees in recent weeks to... the Germans! Photo: REUTERS

- Well disguised!

3) 95 bots on September 1 at 07:29 publish the message “German Soccer Fans Welcome Refugees Amid Ongoing Crisis: As Europe faces the challenge of a wave of migration… http://t.co/9F74YFGPyJ”. (German football fans: Welcome, Refugees!"

All these bots come from the United States, Texas, Dallas. They belong to a very interesting resource "Media for Social and Cultural Impact" - Media for Social and Cultural Impact.

4) On August 29 at 23:02, another group of 80 bots publishes the same message “Thousands Welcome Refugees to Germany at Dresden Rally: Thousands of people took to the streets of the German city of Dresden on Satu...”. It is impossible to determine the regional affiliation of this group of bots.

Examples of bots again can be continued and continued. The most curious readers of Komsomolskaya Pravda can try their detective skills on Twitter.

It is important to note that every original tweet about refugees is exponentially more retweeted. Like a nuclear reaction. The topic is top-notch, as Twitter kindly suggests!

There is an illusion that Twitter is harmless. Well, just think, only 140 characters, what can I say here?! This is a big misconception. Twitter is a serious weapon for influencing people. It was massively used in the “color revolutions”, in the same “Arab Spring”, to rouse the people, especially the youth, to overthrow the government. And in Tunisia, and in Egypt, Yemen, Libya...

- To bring people to the streets, to specific addresses, 140 characters are more than enough.

In Libya, by the way, NATO used Twitter to coordinate military operations against Gaddafi. A number of special accounts were created where information was sent. An inconspicuous man rides a camel and sees several Gaddafi government tanks. Immediately sends a georeferenced tweet with an accuracy of several meters. And he goes home. And soon the tanks are hit by NATO missiles.

This time, Twitter is being used as one of the tools to bring people to other countries en masse. With its help they are organizing a new Great Migration of Peoples.

A GERMAN LOCOMOTIVE IS BRAKED

- Why are they organizing a great “relocation”, “invasion”?

It's difficult to give a definite answer here. I can only guess.

On the one hand, there are the Germans, who are still tormented by a guilt complex over the Second World War. Wanting to atone for the sins of their parents and grandfathers, they create truly hothouse conditions for the unfortunate from the hot spots of Africa and the Middle East. To once again prove to the world community that they are not Nazis.

- Yes, a sense of guilt was deeply driven into them!

Refugees should not be confused with migrants, as they are different categories of people. Refugees are subject to simplified forms of registration, receipt of social benefits and housing.

In short, they take advantage of the German guilt complex.

Against this background, the messages that “US to admit 1,500 Syrian refugees by end of September” or “U.S. to Accept 5,000 to 8,000 Syrian Refugees Next Year” (US will accept from 5,000 to 8,000 Syrian refugees next year). After all, today several thousand refugees cross the German border every day.

New arrivals declare their rights. They require comfortable housing. Refugees thrive on the benefits paid to them and do not strive to get a job or integrate into German culture.

Crime is growing - rape, theft, murder, robbery, drug trafficking. Along with the wave of refugees, ISIS fighters are also arriving...

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EUROPE IS INVADED BY 20 THOUSAND ISIS FIGHTERS UNDER THE CASE OF REFUGEES

The Lebanese minister claims that more than 20 thousand Islamic State militants have entered Europe under the guise of refugees. They intend to transfer the fighting to EU territory.

Lebanese Education Minister Elias Bou Saab said that among the 1.1 million refugees who have flooded Europe, tens of thousands of militants from the Islamic State group (banned in the Russian Federation) are hiding. According to him, approximately one in fifty refugees is a member of a terrorist organization. The Lebanese warned British Prime Minister David Cameron about this during his trip to Lebanon.

Saab admitted that he does not have specific data on the number of terrorists among refugees, but his “sixth sense” tells him that this is exactly what is happening. He worries that Islamists are exploiting the desperate plight of refugees to achieve their own goals.

“My sixth sense tells me that ISIS is conducting an operation to penetrate Europe and other regions. Let’s assume that (among the refugees,” editor’s note) only two percent are radicals. But this is more than enough,” Saab said, according to The Daily Express.

He noted that trained groups of militants are infiltrating Europe with refugees, and even outwardly they stand out from the general flow of migrants. In addition, Islamists are recruiting new militants among refugees.

Earlier, Pope Francis also warned that terrorists are flooding Europe along with refugees. In an interview with Portuguese Radio Renascenca, the pontiff admitted that the Vatican could be one of the targets of the Islamists.

In recent months, Europe has seen a huge influx of illegal migrants from North Africa and the Middle East. Most of them are fleeing war and mass terror unleashed by Islamic State militants in the territories under their control.

The situation is threatening to get out of control. EU countries are arguing over who should accept refugees and in what volume while they illegally cross their borders in the thousands. Experts warn that the migration crisis could turn into a disaster and the collapse of Europe. This was stated, in particular, by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. There has been talk in Europe about revising the Schengen Agreement and calls to abandon the free movement of citizens.

Some countries are using troops to stem the flow of migrants. Hungary is building a wall on the border with Serbia. Denmark temporarily stopped rail connections with Germany. In Germany itself, clashes are taking place between opponents of mass migration and anti-fascists. Radicals set fire to refugee shelters.

Against this background, warnings are increasingly heard about the penetration of terrorist groups into the territory of European states. British counterintelligence warned back in the summer that Islamic State militants were preparing for major terrorist attacks in Europe, including using quadcopters filled with explosives. Intelligence agencies say ISIS leaders are obsessed with the idea of ​​a major terrorist attack that would eclipse the September 11, 2001, attacks on the Twin Towers in New York.

There is no need for a highly developed imagination to extrapolate this trend into the future.

We can say goodbye to Germany as we knew it forever. None of those who arrived there and began receiving benefits will ever return to Libya, Syria, Iraq and further on the list.

Just recently they said that the German authorities would accept 800 thousand by the end of the year. Now the forecast has been increased to a million! Only this year.

This will inevitably lead and is already leading to an increase in the influence of right-wing parties. The number of their supporters is growing, arson of refugee accommodation sites and beatings begin. Since the refugees are mostly young people who are good, much better than the German aborigines, in using knives and other weapons, they will resist. They are already blocking roads and declaring their rights. Further more. We can expect destabilization of the internal situation in Germany. Conflicts on religious, national and cultural grounds are inevitable. How not to recall Elena Chudinova’s prophetic book “The Mosque of Notre Dame of Paris”.

Germany is called the locomotive of the EU, which is going through difficult times today. The destruction of Germany is the destruction of the EU and all of Europe. Isn’t this the goal of the hegemon from across the ocean and his faithful ally - England, which, although Europe, is on an island? In the end, the weakening of Europe is beneficial to the United States, as it will lead to a flow of capital, will allow it to support its economy and retain world leadership for some time. At the same time, this will be a blow to Russia, since the adventure with Ukraine failed.

One can only wish that the predictions would not come true, but it’s all too close to one point.

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The German magazine Der Spiegel published a secret report from the Bundeswehr in the event of the “collapse of Europe.” It contains several scenarios, one more pessimistic than the other. The darkest ones are the disintegration of the EU, the gradual transformation into a caliphate, or the regime of a besieged fortress.

There are options there with cooperation with Russia and the split of Europe on this basis. But perhaps the most pessimistic thing for European officials and experts is that this document is called “Strategic Perspective 2040”. That is, this “hell and apocalypse” are the most realistic strategic prospects that German government analysts see.

There is, however, a version that this is not so much an “accidental leak of information” as a deliberate leak in order to “spur” the European bureaucracy to take decisive action, and at the same time to ensure that Germany leads and coordinates these decisive actions. In general, it may turn out that this is another attempt by the Germans to officially lead the European Union. This is something that Russian experts generally agree with.

On the other hand, these forecasts cannot be called “fake” at all. Centrifugal processes have indeed been observed in the European Union in recent years. Catalonia, Brexit, Greece with the constant “if we don’t give you money, we’ll leave”; you can also remember Hungary with their demonstrative pro-Russian policy, despite the entire European Union.

However, objectively speaking, it is not primarily pro-Russian, but pro-Hungarian. And this is very important for understanding that European experts and society are coming to the conclusion that cooperation with Russia is not a concession to Russia, but a strategy for the peaceful existence of the European Union itself and its member states that is adequate to geography, history and geopolitics.

In order not to make such statements unfounded, it is worth quoting Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the magazine “Russia in Global Affairs,” who saw and heard all these comments from the European expertocracy at the conference “Talk about NATO near the Brandenburg Gate.”

So, in his words, “former Minister of Defense and Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic Alexander Vondra, from the generation of old anti-communist dissidents, a staunch supporter of NATO, said: “You know, I definitely cannot be classified as a ‘Russophile’; there are big problems with Russia. But what is going on in Europe and especially in America now? Have you moved at all? Will shaking hands with Russians soon be banned? During the Cold War, we had a bitter rivalry, but that didn't stop us from doing business with the Soviets to improve security? What have we come to now?” Interestingly, it seems that some people are starting to feel that they have completely overdone it.”

Here, of course, the point is not “overzealous,” but the fact that after all this liberal idealism, ideological pumping for friendship with the United States and sanctions against Russia, more and more Europeans are starting to count money. Which are lost, and which could be gained from cooperation with the Russian Federation.

This, by the way, is the case when it is clearly visible that “history teaches that it teaches nothing.” Because in all this politics recent years When the EU followed in the footsteps of the United States, the Europeans had hope for active support from the United States. But if you look at the history of the 20th century, you can clearly see that all assistance from the States to anyone comes down to the acquisition of political and economic profits by the States themselves.

The good news is that it seems that this simple idea began to reach Europeans just three years after the geopolitical aggravation.

By the way, American experts, according to Lukyanov, were also at the conference and behaved very uncertainly and “stiffly,” although they poured out “victorious reports.” Here, by the way, you need to move away from politics and delve into the American mentality. If an American behaves insecurely, it means that he is trying to put on a positive face not just when the game is bad, but when the game is catastrophic.

Where does this disaster come from? And, in fact, because the political elites are at war with Trump. And no, we are not talking about “Russian hackers” or Trumpian rednecks here. And about the very fact of the conflict, which creates internal political chaos in the United States, which in turn affects foreign policy. In relation to the EU as well. These same experts and officials, roughly speaking, do not know what to promise the Europeans, because tomorrow, due to the confrontation around the White House, Donald Trump may do something “to harm” the American elites, and this will affect European politics, for example.

By the way, again regardless of Russia, these moments of instability with a chain reaction “from Washington to the very outskirts” are one of the global shortcomings of the notorious unipolar system of the world. So far, everything is stable in the United States, everything is stable in its satellites, but if stability in Washington is disrupted, then... Read the “Strategy 2040” from the Bundeswehr, as they say.

The desire for rapprochement with Russia in European society is confirmed by the latest sociological surveys of the Körber Foundation. These sociologists asked Germans, Poles and Russians about the desire for rapprochement between Russia and Europe. And it turned out that Russia is considered Europe by 57% of Germans, 56% of Poles and only 49% of Russians. And the most important thing is that 95% and 80% of Germans and Poles, respectively, want rapprochement, but in Russia only 66% of respondents think about such a course of rapprochement. And here again there is no need to sing panegyrics on the topic “this is how they love us in Europe.” They don’t like it, but they know how to count money. And, by the way, in Russia too.

Because over the years of “diverging in corners,” we not only withdrew from the global European market thanks to their sanctions and our counter-sanctions, but also organized our own full-fledged infrastructure at an accelerated pace. And now many citizens are simply afraid to return to this global market, but how will it again be cheaper to buy Polish apples than those grown in our latitudes, and again our agricultural business will “curl up”? And such fears, naturally, not only in the agricultural sector.

It is clear that there is also a political reason: our expansion, European expansion, sovereign greatness, which, by the way, has not been canceled in Europe, it is simply customary to talk only about “Russian imperial ambitions,” but there is a lot of that there too. And with our greatness, everything is much better at the moment, but the sense of national pride among the peoples of Europe is somewhat humiliated. Because we look at the US foreign policy strategy towards Europe and remember what a unipolar world model is. By the way, there is also the factor of migrants, who simply every day and clearly, under the auspices of the current European bureaucracy, show European nations, in traditionally national European countries, what is their national dignity worth?

In this regard, Russia, with its multipolarity, some slowness and introversion, suddenly turned out to be much more preferable. In addition, Russian tourists, even of the Tagil format! – these are not Middle Eastern migrants at all. If only because tourists spend, and migrants soak up the European economy, the very “money of honest taxpayers.”

In general, to summarize, we can express cautious optimism in terms of some sobering up of the Europeans. If such trends continue to be observed, then in a few years, it is quite possible that a rapprochement will occur. Only, it is important to understand that it should happen exclusively on our terms and for the greater good of the Russian state. And no, not at all because of some “imperial ambitions,” but because of typical European pragmatism. In the end, they themselves consider us Europe, so we need to conform.

European victory in the Cold War

After the fall of the Berlin Wall a quarter of a century ago, it collapsed Soviet Union, squandered all the funds freed up as a result of the reduction of the arms race in order to maintain their world dominance, and Europe quietly began to prosper, began the process of integration and became an important player on the international stage. From 1989 to 2014, it practically doubled its population and reached third place after China and India. Today, the EU is proud of its status as the world's largest economy and tops the list of global trading powers. In 2012, the EU became a laureate Nobel Prize for transforming Europe “from a continent of war into a continent of peace.”

China is losing ground in the race to become the “true world superpower” due to the impoverishment of peasants and a corrupt illiberal bureaucracy in the cities. The United States is also losing ground due to collapsing infrastructure and a hypertrophied military-industrial complex, which can bankrupt the economy. Europe comes out on top thanks to its political prosperity and its status as a superpower based on the rule of law, despite, or perhaps even because, it lacks the military power to act as the world's policeman.

But despite all these successes, the European project is on the verge of collapse. Economic growth is rather weak, and socio-economic inequality is only gaining momentum. Countries of Central and of Eastern Europe, including prosperous Poland, have failed to reach the income levels of the rich part of the continent. And the debtor countries on the periphery may soon rebel.

The EU authorities cannot keep other countries within the EU and everything may fall apart. On the left are parties like Syriza in Greece, which are resisting European Union austerity measures. On the right are Eurosceptics who put the entire system of quasi-federalism at risk. Racism and xenophobia are gaining more and more supporters in previously calm regions such as Scandinavia.

At the moment, perhaps the most pressing problem for Europe is the growing popularity of Islamophobia and “socialism for fools.”

The wars in the Middle East have led to many tragic events in Europe, from the killings at the Munich Olympics in 1972 to the attacks on Charlie Hebdo and a kosher supermarket in Paris. Today Europe is a continent divided into two camps: those who follow real Islam and those who believe that Islam (any kind) has no place in Europe.

The fragmented European Union of 2015 is not at all what Francis Fukuyama imagined in 1989, when he predicted the “end of history” and the final triumph liberal democracy and the bureaucracy in Brussels, the EU headquarters, which manages all the affairs of the continent. And it’s not at all what British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher imagined when back in 1980 she said “there is no alternative” and about the brand of market liberalism. Instead, Europe returns to the period between the First and Second World Wars, when far-right and far-left politicians split public opinion, as the economy went into a tailspin, anti-Semitism resurfaced and clouds began to gather over Europe.

There may not be another war, but Europe will certainly face another regime collapse: the collapse of the eurozone and the end of regional integration. If you pay attention to the events on the eastern borders of the EU, you can see the bleak future of Europe itself. There, the federal structures that connected the multicultural people among themselves have a lousy achievement list over the past 25 years. The Soviet Union collapsed in 1991; Czechoslovakia in 1993, and Yugoslavia was torn to pieces after a series of wars in the 90s.

If economic, political and social structures If the EU undergoes fragmentation, the European Union may well suffer the same fate as the USSR and Yugoslavia. As a continent, Europe will survive and states will still develop and prosper together, but the idea of ​​a united Europe will die. If Europe ultimately loses after its victory in the Cold War, it will have no one to blame but itself.

The Rise and Fall of the Thatcher Concept

The Cold War was an era of alternatives. The United States offered its own version of unlimited capitalism. And the Soviet Union promoted its brand central planning. In the middle was the project of the social market economy of continental Europe - capitalism with elements of central planning and in-depth concern for the well-being of all members of society.

Cooperation, not competition, has become the epitome of the European alternative. The Americans could keep their principle of “man is a wolf to man.” The Europeans instead opted for greater coordination between labor and management, and the European Community (predecessor of the European Union) decided to make efforts to bring all new member countries up to the standard of living of the core countries.

Then, in the 1980s, when the USSR model ceased to influence the world, the concept of no alternative (TINA) came along.

At this time, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and American President Ronald Reagan began their campaigns to reduce government, which would later become known as globalization, namely the removal of trade barriers and the creation of new opportunities for the financial sector. Thatcher called this brave new world her concept of “no alternative”: the planet no longer had an alternative but a globalized market democracy.

It is not surprising then that after the Cold War era, European integration shifted its emphasis towards removing barriers to capital inflows. As a result, European expansion no longer meant equality. What Ireland (in 1973) and Portugal (in 1986) received for joining now looks like artifacts of a bygone era, the era of the Marshall Plan. The huge number of potential new EU members has a serious impact on the financial resources of the European Union, in particular countries such as Romania and Bulgaria, whose standard of living was much lower than the European average. And even if the EU had almost unlimited funds, they would not matter, since the neoliberal spirit of capitalism, which is now embodied in Brussels policy, would insist on smaller government and free markets.

At the heart of Europe, as well as in this new tradition, is Germany, the model of continental tax integrity. Back in the 90s, this united nation exceeded spending to raise East Germany's standard of living to that of the rest of the country. However, this method was not applied to the rest of the Soviet bloc countries. Germany, acting as an effective central bank for European Union, on the contrary, demanded balanced budgets and austerity measures from all new EU members (and even some old ones), as the only effective response to national debt and fears of a future depression.

The remaining former Warsaw Pact members did not have access to EU funds for infrastructure reconstruction and were not offered anything comparable to what they received East Germany. As such, they remain somewhat in an economic halfway house. Living standards in Hungary, 25 years after the fall of communism, remain half those in neighboring Austria. The situation is similar in Romania, which took 14 years to raise its GDP to 1989 levels and remains one of the lowest living standards in the EU. People who have only visited the central cities of Eastern and Central Europe leave with a distorted view of the economic situation there, because Warsaw and Bratislava are richer than Vienna and they are almost on par with Budapest, however, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary are economically far behind from Austria.

The countries of Eastern and Central Europe after 1989 experienced one course of shock therapy after another, this was the path chosen by the EU authorities for all countries under the threat of default during the financial crisis of 2007 and the sovereign debt crisis in 2009. Forgetting about deficit spending, which would help countries get out of the economic crisis themselves, and forgetting about renegotiating debt obligations. The unemployment rate in Spain has reached 25%, among young people 50%. All EU members that have undergone austerity measures have seen an increase in the number of people living below the poverty line. The ECB recently announced “quantitative easing” (a ploy to pump more money into the Eurozone), but it is too little and too late.

The basic principle of European integration has changed radically. Instead of allowing the countries of Eastern and Central Europe to rise to the same level as the rest of the EU, the countries of the “West” began to lag behind the countries of the “East”. For example, Greece's GDP per capita fell below that of Slovenia, and in terms of purchasing power, even below that of Slovakia (both former communist countries).

Axis of “illiberalism”

Europeans are beginning to realize that Margaret Thatcher was wrong, and that there are alternatives to both liberalism and European integration. The most striking example of illiberalism is Hungary.

On July 26, 2014, Prime Minister Viktor Orban admitted in a speech that he was going to reorganize the country. However, the reform model has nothing in common with the US, UK or France. Most likely, he seeks to create what he explicitly called an “illiberal state” in the very center of Europe, based on Christian values ​​on the one hand and Western libertinism on the other. In other words, he wants to turn Hungary into mini-Russia or mini-China.

Orbán said: “Societies created according to liberal principles are not able to be competitive and in the future they will suffer one setback after another until they are able to reform themselves.” He also sought to reorient himself from Brussels to more profitable markets and investments from Russia, China and the Middle East.

In July, Orbán was ready to drive a stake into the heart of the ideology that gave birth to him. 25 years ago, while still young, he headed the Fidesz Alliance of Young Democrats, one of the most promising liberal parties. Over the years, he has steered Fidesz away from the Liberal International towards the European People's Party, along with German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats, sensing more promising political possibilities.

However, he has now changed his position and moved away from the Merkel model to the ruthless model of President Vladimir Putin. Given the poor results of liberal reforms and EU policies, it was not surprising that he decided to turn his attention to the East.

The European Court has harshly criticized Orban's government for constitutional changes that restrict the media and threaten the judiciary. Currently, Hungary is experiencing a surge in racism and xenophobia, in particular, an increase in anti-Semitism and anti-Gypsy sentiment. And the state has taken steps to take control of the economy and foreign investment.

Some believe that relations between Hungary and the rest of Europe are reminiscent of the 1960s, when Albania broke away from the Soviet bloc and joined communist China. But Albania was then a minor political player, and China was still an underdeveloped country. Hungary is an important member of the European Union, and the illiberal development model of the PRC, which brought China to the top of the world economy, is gaining strength in the international arena. In other words, this is not Albania. The illiberal axis that connects Budapest, Moscow and Beijing will have far-reaching consequences.

Moreover, the Hungarian prime minister has many allies in his Eurosceptic project. Far-right parties are leading polls across the continent. For example, Marine Le Pen's National Front led the French elections to the European Parliament last May. In the local elections in 2014, he won 12 mayoralties, and polls showed that if presidential elections were held this year, and not in 2017, then the National Front won them too. As a result of the attack on Charlie Hebdo, the National Front is promoting initiatives to reintroduce the death penalty and close borders, which challenges the European project.

In Denmark, the far-right People's Party won a majority of votes in the European Parliament elections. In November, she topped the polls for the first time. The People's Party called for abandoning the policy of " open doors» towards refugees and introduce border controls. Just as the Green Party did in Germany in the 1970s, the UK Independence Party, the True Finns Party, and even the Sweden Democrats are breaking up the social-conservative power duopoly that existed in Europe throughout the Cold War.

Islamophobia, which has become widespread after the killings in France, only helps such mainstream parties. Anti-Islamic sentiments, manifested both in demonstrations and in the media, are reminiscent of old Europe, when armed pilgrims went on crusades against Muslims, when nascent states mobilized against Ottoman Empire and, when European unity was based not on economic interests and political goals, but on a “civilizational” answer to the wrong one.

Europe today is a much more multicultural place, and regional integration is based on “unity in diversity”, as the motto of the European Union. As a result, the rise of anti-Islamic sentiment is fundamentally contrary to the European project. If the EU fails to come to terms with Islam, it will lead to ethnic, religious and cultural problems.

Euroscepticism does not only come from the right. In Greece, the Syriza party opposes the austerity measures imposed by the EU and ECB, which have plunged the country into recession and the people are ready to revolt. As across Europe, the far right would have benefited from the economic crisis if the government had not arrested Golden Dawn members on charges of murder and other offenses. In the parliamentary elections this Sunday, Syriza won a landslide victory and now the party is only a couple of seats short of an absolute majority. As a sign that Syriza intends to change its policy towards the EU, it entered into a coalition not with the center-left party, but with the right-wing Independent Greeks party, which is also skeptical of the European Union and advocates control over illegal immigration.

European integration remains a bipartisan project for parties in the middle of the political spectrum, but Eurosceptics are gaining more and more votes thanks to their anti-federalist rhetoric. Although they have toned down their rhetoric about “oppressive Brussels” once they have moved closer to power, they still pose a threat to the European project.

When Virtue Becomes Vice

For decades, European integration has been a vicious circle - political support that promotes integration, which in turn grows the European economy. This was the formula for success in the modern world. However, the European model is now associated with austerity measures, and the vicious circle of EU prosperity has become vicious. One country is challenging the eurozone, another is closing its borders, and a third is reintroducing the death penalty. The European Union is going into a tailspin, even if no state tries to leave it.

In Eastern and Central Europe, a growing group of people who distrust EU authorities believe that Brussels has only taken the place of Moscow in the post-Soviet era (Eurosceptics from the former Yugoslavia put Belgrade in this place). In their opinion, Brussels sets the parameters economic policy for the EU countries, ignoring the risks, and the eurozone countries completely lose control over their finances. Even if the decrees coming from Brussels are economically justified and legitimate, for Eurosceptics they still pose a threat to the legitimacy of their countries.

Thus, what destroyed the USSR and Yugoslavia began to destroy the European Union. Apart from Poland and Germany, where they still believe in the European project, there are too few countries left where the attitude towards the EU is positive. The popularity of the European project fluctuates around 50%, and in countries such as Italy and Greece it is even lower.

The EU was without a doubt a remarkable achievement of modern nationhood. He turned a region that seemed mired in "tribal hatred" into the most peaceful region on the planet. But as happened with the USSR, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia, the EU federal project cracked in the absence of a strong external enemy, as was the case during the Cold War. One more economic blow or political challenge and the system will fail.

Unity in diversity is a good concept, but the EU needs more than just rhetoric and good intentions. If the EU authorities do not figure out how to deal with economic inequality, political extremism and social intolerance, then the opponents of the EU will soon gain enough power to change the situation in their favor. The collapse of the European Union will not only be a tragedy for the whole of Europe, but also for those who hope to overcome all the conflicts of the past and find refuge from the conflicts of the present.

From the failed attempt to clear the Calais jungle to the dire situation on the Greek-Macedonian border, the EU is bursting at the seams under the strain of a massive refugee crisis. Even the Kafkaesque Brussels Eurocrats admit this - unofficially, of course, since officially the EU must demonstrate a mythical image of unity: “We are on the edge of the abyss.”

Scenarios of the inevitable collapse of Western civilization are spreading throughout the EU and among Russia's intellectual elites as the vast numbers of refugees cannot be properly assimilated. In Russia, this process is viewed with great concern, because all this is happening not far from Russia’s western border and affects those whom the Kremlin traditionally defines as our partners.

But what if the slow-motion fiasco of the Europeans was not caused by a dystopia like Mad Max, but brought in with a tsunami of Muslims effectively driven out by Western-initiated wars?

Consider the citadel of Europe

Just six months ago, Angela Merkel's government went big with its so-called "humanitarian" refugee policy; you could call it, so to speak, the civilized face of the politically tainted R2P (Responsibility to Protect) concept through which the invasion and destruction of Libya was brutally manipulated.

Six months later, a swarm of refugees has emerged, stretching along the entire Balkan route - and increasingly surrounded/trapped by tight border controls, the disappearance of social privileges, the construction of fences and walls and the virtual destruction of the Schengen agreement. Merkel's gambit is over, citadel Europe is back with a thirst for revenge.

Have you already heard the crash of a basket of destroyed myths? Here are a few for you. The idea of ​​“European Solidarity”, not to mention equality and fraternity. The idea that EU members will accept a reasonable, harmonious, proportionate number of refugees. The idea that Europe will not reject, deport or repatriate people fleeing war-torn regions. The idea that Türkiye will protect the EU from the crisis.

The Balkan route is essentially now closed to refugees, and Ankara, for its part, is slowly building a wall along the Turkish-Syrian border - not so much to actually contain them (after all, Ankara must preserve open corridor for jihadists), as much as propaganda.

Germany's humane refugee policy is in tatters and riddled with self-doubt; just two weeks ago, Chancellor Merkel was questioning whether she should stick to “our Euro-Turkish approach” or whether the EU should do nothing less than completely close the Greek-Macedonian border.

And this brings us to the heart of the matter - of course, to Turkey.

Most conservative German politicians want Merkel to close Germany's borders to refugees, and Merkel herself still believes in the Hand of Providence, in the help of “European partners” - which will not come - and most of all in the help of Ankara.

And this is exactly what Sultan Erdogan expects from her - to be a supplicant, and not the leader of the No. 1 European economic power.

Ankara's power play

One of the main myths of the entire refugee crisis is that Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) government is doing everything it can to contain the refugees.

Nonsense. The crisis itself was created by Ankara in 2015 - when refugees were released from the camps in Turkey where they were being held, under the threat that they would no longer be cared for. The flow of refugees was not “spontaneous” - as if Syrians, Iraqis and/or Afghans suddenly decided to flee to the EU - they were directly encouraged by Ankara. And from the very beginning Erdogan was already thinking through the Big Prize: to bribe the EU, in particular Merkel, so that they would pay - at least 3 billion euros - so that most of the refugees would not remain on Turkish soil, but - in accordance with one of the neo- Ottoman secondary plans - a “safe harbor” was created on Syrian territory.

Further evidence pointing to Ankara's design was the fact that Turkey did not increase patrols along the Mediterranean coast - a place from which dozens of refugees were trying their luck on the way to safety by boat. Greek islands. For Ankara, the priority was to close the Turkish-Syrian border. But not to actually “close” it, because free passage remained guaranteed to selected “moderate rebels.”

The Warsaw-based European Agency for the Management of Operational Cooperation at the External Borders of Member States of the European Union, Frontex, is absolutely convinced that the Turkey-EU power game with refugees will continue. Fronttech director Fabrice Leggeri diplomatically states that Turkey must make it more difficult for smugglers to transport migrants.

But this will not happen. And Germany - not the EU as a whole - will continue to remain hostage to Turkey's political maneuvers.

The EU-Türkiye summit took place in November 2015. Erdogan then promised that the Aegean coast would be more secure and there would be more raids against migrant smuggling. Too little, too late. The Turkish coast of the Aegean Sea stretches for 2800 km. Ankara does not have the resources to properly control it.

So smuggling on a huge scale continues unabated. Smuggler circles with the right contacts - in the Turkish police and among AKP-linked politicians - only have to pay approximately 3,000 euros for each group of refugees that leaves the border for the sea.

At the same time, Ankara is openly waging war in the southeast of Anatolia against the PKK Kurds. This is priority number 1, and not the smuggling of refugees, not to mention the fight against ISIS/IS/Daesh ( organization banned in Russia). Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu could not have been clearer when he was in Berlin last year: Erdogan/Davutoglu's Plan A is to destroy the Kurdish PKK. There is no plan B.

Chaos created and approved

No one in Brussels will do this. So Frau Merkel should ultimately be the only EU leader who will confront Erdogan and give him a stern warning. The point is not to politely ask Ankara to reduce the number of refugees. We need to order him to do this, ask him why he released them en masse last year, and withhold any future package financial assistance, including for the construction of refugee camps in Syria.

The naked fact is that the entire refugee crisis - and this crisis threatens the existence of Europe - is being used by Ankara as a bargaining chip for an extortion racket. Erdogan wants EU funds and a tsunami of concessions in Turkey's EU accession negotiations.

At the same time, there is no coherent EU policy towards refugees. There is not even a balance between humanitarian concerns and containment, altruism and rial politics. Not a single EU political leader will resist NATO wars (supported by petrodollars from the Commonwealth Council Persian Gulf), creating this whole crisis. The vast majority of refugees are Syrians, Afghans and Africans who left the continent through Libya destroyed by NATO.

Opinion polls consistently show that a majority of EU citizens no longer welcome refugees. As the author of “Humanitarian Imperialism” Jean Brillmont, who lives in Belgium, rightly noted, EU citizens, with whom the refugee problem has never been discussed and constantly asked to make sacrifices because “there is no money,” no longer accept these moral reasoning, which is understandable .

Bricmont is one of the few in Europe who connect cause and effect: the very people who encouraged “humanitarian” interventions and “supported” armed insurgencies abroad leading to endless wars creating a constant stream of refugees are now demanding that the populations of their own countries "welcomed refugees." They first create chaos there and then applaud the chaos here.

Well, well, this is essentially the whole logic of the Empire of Chaos.

Pepe Escobar