La Niña

Southern Oscillation And El Niño(Spanish) El Niño- Baby, Boy) is a global ocean-atmospheric phenomenon. Being characteristic feature Pacific Ocean, El Niño and La Niña(Spanish) La Nina- Baby, Girl) represent temperature fluctuations of surface waters in the tropics of the eastern Pacific Ocean. The names for these phenomena, borrowed from the native Spanish and first coined in 1923 by Gilbert Thomas Walker, mean "baby" and "little one," respectively. Their influence on the climate of the southern hemisphere is difficult to overestimate. The Southern Oscillation (the atmospheric component of the phenomenon) reflects monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the difference in air pressure between the island of Tahiti and the city of Darwin in Australia.

The circulation named after Walker is a significant aspect of the Pacific phenomenon ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation). ENSO is many interacting parts of one global system of ocean-atmospheric climate fluctuations that occur as a sequence of oceanic and atmospheric circulations. ENSO is the world's best known source of interannual weather and climate variability (3 to 8 years). ENSO has signatures in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans.

IN Pacific Ocean During significant warm events, El Niño warms up and expands across much of the Pacific tropics and becomes directly correlated with SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) intensity. While ENSO events occur primarily between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, ENSO events in the Atlantic Ocean lag behind the former by 12 to 18 months. Most of the countries that experience ENSO events are developing ones, with economies that are heavily dependent on the agricultural and fishing sectors. New capabilities to predict the onset of ENSO events in three oceans could have global socioeconomic implications. Since ENSO is a global and natural part of the Earth's climate, it is important to know whether changes in intensity and frequency could be a result of global warming. Low frequency changes have already been detected. Interdecadal ENSO modulations may also exist.

El Niño and La Niña

El Niño and La Niña are officially defined as long-lasting marine surface temperature anomalies greater than 0.5°C crossing the central tropical Pacific Ocean. When a condition of +0.5 °C (-0.5 °C) is observed for a period of up to five months, it is classified as an El Niño (La Niña) condition. If the anomaly persists for five months or longer, it is classified as an El Niño (La Niña) episode. The latter occurs at irregular intervals of 2-7 years and usually lasts one or two years.

The first signs of El Niño are as follows:

1. Increase in air pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia.
2. A drop in air pressure over Tahiti and the rest of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
3. Trade winds in the South Pacific are weakening or heading east.
4. Warm air appears near Peru, causing rain in the deserts.
5. Warm water spreads from the western part of the Pacific Ocean to the eastern. It brings rain with it, causing it to occur in areas that are usually dry.

The warm El Niño current, composed of plankton-poor tropical water and heated by its easterly flow in the Equatorial Current, replaces the cold, plankton-rich waters of the Humboldt Current, also known as the Peruvian Current, which contains large populations commercial fish. Most years, the warming lasts only a few weeks or months, after which weather patterns return to normal and fish catches increase. However, when El Niño conditions last for several months, more extensive ocean warming occurs and its economic impact on local fisheries for the external market can be severe.

The Volcker circulation is visible on the surface as easterly trade winds, which move water and air heated by the sun westward. It also creates oceanic upwelling off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, bringing cold plankton-rich waters to the surface, increasing fish populations. The western equatorial Pacific Ocean is characterized by warm, humid weather and low atmospheric pressure. The accumulated moisture falls in the form of typhoons and storms. As a result, in this place the ocean is 60 cm higher than in its eastern part.

In the Pacific Ocean, La Niña is characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the eastern equatorial region compared to El Niño, which in turn is characterized by unusually warm temperatures in the same region. Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in general case intensifies during La Niña. A La Niña condition often occurs after an El Niño, especially when the latter is very strong.

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

The Southern Oscillation Index is calculated from monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.

Long-lasting negative SOI values ​​often signal El Niño episodes. These negative values ​​typically accompany continued warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, decreased strength of the Pacific trade winds, and decreased rainfall in eastern and northern Australia.

Positive SOI values ​​are associated with strong Pacific trade winds and warming water temperatures in northern Australia, well known as a La Niña episode. The waters of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become colder during this time. Together this increases the likelihood of more rainfall than normal in eastern and northern Australia.

Extensive influence of El Niño conditions

As El Niño's warm waters fuel storms, it creates increased precipitation in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

In South America, the El Niño effect is more pronounced than in North America. El Niño is associated with warm and very wet summer periods (December-February) along the coasts of northern Peru and Ecuador, causing severe flooding whenever the event is severe. The effects during February, March, April may become critical. Southern Brazil and northern Argentina also experience wetter than normal conditions, but mainly during the spring and early summer. The central region of Chile receives mild winters with plenty of rain, and the Peruvian-Bolivian Plateau sometimes experiences winter snowfall, which is unusual for the region. Drier and warmer weather is observed in the Amazon Basin, Colombia and Central America.

The direct effects of El Niño are reducing humidity in Indonesia, increasing the likelihood of wildfires, in the Philippines and northern Australia. Also in June-August, dry weather is observed in the regions of Australia: Queensland, Victoria, New South Wales and eastern Tasmania.

The western Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Land, Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas are covered with large amounts of snow and ice during El Niño. The latter two and the Wedell Sea become warmer and are under higher atmospheric pressure.

In North America, winters are generally warmer than normal in the Midwest and Canada, while central and southern California, northwestern Mexico and the southeastern United States are getting wetter. The Pacific Northwest states, in other words, dry out during El Niño. Conversely, during La Niña, the US Midwest dries out. El Niño is also associated with decreased hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

Eastern Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania and the White Nile Basin, experiences long periods of rain from March to May. Droughts plague southern and central Africa from December to February, mainly Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana.

Warm Pool of the Western Hemisphere

A study of climate data showed that approximately half of the post-El Niño summers experienced unusual warming in the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool. This influences the weather in the region and appears to have a connection to the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Atlantic effect

An El Niño-like effect is sometimes observed in the Atlantic Ocean, where water along the equatorial African coast becomes warmer and water off the coast of Brazil becomes colder. This can be attributed to Volcker circulations over South America.

Non-climatic effects

Along the east coast of South America, El Niño reduces the upwelling of cold, plankton-rich water that supports large populations of fish, which in turn support an abundance of seabirds, whose droppings support the fertilizer industry.

Local fishing industries along coastlines may experience shortages of fish during prolonged El Niño events. The world's largest fisheries collapse due to overfishing, which occurred in 1972 during El Niño, led to a decline in the Peruvian anchovy population. During the events of 1982-83, populations of southern horse mackerel and anchovies declined. Although the number of shells in warm water increased, hake went deeper into cold water, and shrimp and sardines went south. But the catch of some other fish species was increased, for example, the common horse mackerel increased its population during warm events.

Changing locations and types of fish due to changing conditions have presented challenges for the fishing industry. The Peruvian sardine has moved towards the Chilean coast due to El Niño. Other conditions have only led to further complications, such as the Chilean government creating fishing restrictions in 1991.

It is postulated that El Niño led to the extinction of the Mochico Indian tribe and other tribes of the pre-Columbian Peruvian culture.

Causes that give rise to El Niño

The mechanisms that may cause El Niño events are still being researched. It is difficult to find patterns that can reveal causes or allow predictions to be made.

History of the theory

The first mention of the term "El Niño" dates back to the year when Captain Camilo Carrilo reported at the Congress of the Geographical Society in Lima that Peruvian sailors called the warm northerly current "El Niño" because it was most noticeable around Christmas. However, even then the phenomenon was interesting only because of its biological impact on the efficiency of the fertilizer industry.

Normal conditions along the western Peruvian coast are a cold southerly current (Peru Current) with upwelling water; plankton upwelling leads to active ocean productivity; cold currents lead to a very dry climate on earth. Similar conditions exist everywhere (California Current, Bengal Current). So replacing it with a warm northern current leads to a decrease in biological activity in the ocean and to heavy rains, leading to flooding, on land. An association with flooding was reported in Pezet and Eguiguren.

Towards the end of the nineteenth century there was increased interest in predicting climate anomalies (for food production) in India and Australia. Charles Todd suggested that droughts in India and Australia occur at the same time. Norman Lockyer pointed out the same thing in Gilbert Volcker who first coined the term "Southern Oscillation".

For most of the twentieth century, El Niño was considered a large local phenomenon.

History of the phenomenon

ENSO conditions have occurred every 2-7 years for at least the last 300 years, but most of them have been weak.

Large ENSO events occurred in - , , - , , - , - and - 1998 .

The last El Niño events occurred in -, -, , , 1997-1998 and -2003.

The 1997-1998 El Niño in particular was strong and brought international attention to the phenomenon, while the 1997-1998 El Niño was unusual in that El Niño occurred very frequently (but mostly weakly).

El Niño in the history of civilization

Scientists tried to establish why, at the turn of the 10th century AD, the two largest civilizations of that time ceased to exist almost simultaneously on opposite ends of the earth. It's about about the Mayan Indians and the fall of the Chinese Tang Dynasty, which was followed by a period of internecine strife.

Both civilizations were located in monsoon regions, the moisture of which depends on seasonal precipitation. However, at this time, apparently, the rainy season was not able to provide enough moisture for the development of agriculture.

The ensuing drought and subsequent famine led to the decline of these civilizations, researchers believe. They link climate change to natural phenomenon"El Niño", which refers to temperature fluctuations in the surface waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean in tropical latitudes. This leads to large-scale disturbances in atmospheric circulation, causing droughts in traditionally wet regions and floods in dry ones.

Scientists came to these conclusions by studying the nature of sedimentary deposits in China and Mesoamerica dating back to this period. The last emperor of the Tang dynasty died in 907 AD, and the last known Mayan calendar dates back to 903.

Links

• The El Nino Theme Page Explains El Nino and La Nina, provides real time data, forecasts, animations, FAQ, impacts and more.
• The International Meteorological Organization announced the detection of the beginning of the event La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. (Reuters/YahooNews)

Literature

• Cesar N. Caviedes, 2001. El Niño in History: Storming Through the Ages(University Press of Florida)
• Brian Fagan, 1999. Floods, Famines, and Emperors: El Niño and the Fate of Civilizations(Basic Books)
• Michael H. Glantz, 2001. Currents of change, ISBN 0-521-78672-X
• Mike Davis Late Victorian Holocausts: El Niño Famines and the Making of the Third World(2001), ISBN 1-85984-739-0

Climate, Climatology

Must retreat. It is being replaced by a diametrically opposite phenomenon - La Niña. And if the first phenomenon can be translated from Spanish as “child” or “boy,” then La Niña means “girl.” Scientists hope that the phenomenon will help somewhat balance the climate in both hemispheres, lowering the average annual temperature, which is now rapidly rising.

What are El Nino and La Nina

El Niño and La Niña are warm and cold currents or opposing extremes of water temperature and atmospheric pressure characteristic of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that last about six months.

Phenomenon El Niño consists of a sharp increase in temperature (by 5-9 degrees) of the surface layer of water in the eastern Pacific Ocean over an area of ​​about 10 million square meters. km.

La Niña- the opposite of El Niño - manifests itself as a decrease in surface water temperature below the climate norm in the eastern tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean.

Together they constitute the so-called Southern Oscillation.

How does El Niño form? Near the Pacific coast of South America there is a cold Peruvian Current, which arises due to the trade winds. About once every 5-10 years, the trade winds weaken for 1-6 months. As a result, the cold current stops its “work”, and warm waters shift to the shores of South America. This phenomenon is called El Niño. El Niño energy can lead to disturbances in the entire atmosphere of the Earth, provokes environmental disasters, the phenomenon is involved in numerous weather anomalies in the tropics, which often lead to material losses and even human casualties.

What will La Niña bring to the planet?

Just like El Niño, La Niña appears with a certain cyclicity from 2 to 7 years and lasts from 9 months to a year. Residents of the Northern Hemisphere are threatened with a decrease in the phenomenon winter temperature by 1-2 degrees, which in current conditions is not so bad. Considering that the Earth has shifted, and now spring comes 10 years earlier than 40 years ago.

It should also be noted that El Niño and La Niña do not necessarily have to succeed each other - there can often be several “neutral” years between them.

But don't expect La Niña to come quickly. Judging by observations, this year will be under the rule of El Niño, as evidenced by monthly data on both a planetary and local scale. “Girl” will begin to bear fruit no earlier than 2017.

07.12.2007 14:23

Fires and floods, droughts and hurricanes - all hit our Earth in 1997. Fires turned the forests of Indonesia to ashes, then raged across the vast expanses of Australia. Showers have become frequent over the Chilean Atacama Desert, which is particularly dry. Torrential rains and floods did not spare South America. The total damage from the willfulness of the disaster amounted to about $50 billion. Meteorologists believe that the El Niño phenomenon is the cause of all these disasters.

El Niño means "baby" in Spanish. This is the name given to the abnormal warming of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Ecuador and Peru, which occurs every few years. This affectionate name only reflects the fact that the onset of El Niño most often occurs around the Christmas holidays, and fishermen on the west coast of South America associated it with the name of Jesus in infancy.

In normal years, along the entire Pacific coast of South America, due to the coastal upwelling of cold deep waters caused by the cold surface Peruvian Current, ocean surface temperatures fluctuate within a narrow seasonal range of 15°C to 19°C. During the El Niño period, ocean surface temperatures in the coastal zone increase by 6-10°C. As geological and paleoclimatic studies have shown, the phenomenon mentioned has existed for at least 100 thousand years. Fluctuations in the temperature of the surface layer of the ocean from extremely warm to neutral or cold occur with periods of 2 to 10 years. Currently, the term "El Niño" is used to refer to situations where abnormally warm surface waters occupy not only the coastal region near South America, but also most of the tropical Pacific Ocean up to the 180th meridian.

There is a constant warm current originating from the coast of Peru and extending to the archipelago lying southeast of the Asian continent. It is an elongated tongue of heated water, with an area equal to the territory of the United States. The heated water intensively evaporates and “pumps” the atmosphere with energy. Clouds form over the warming ocean. Typically, trade winds (constantly blowing easterly winds in the tropical zone) drive a layer of this warm water from the American coast towards Asia. Around Indonesia, the current stops and monsoon rains begin to fall over southern Asia.

During El Niño near the equator, this current warms up more than usual, so the trade winds weaken or do not blow at all. The heated water spreads to the sides and goes back to the American coast. Arises anomalous zone convection. Rain and hurricanes hit Central and South America. Over the past 20 years, there have been five active El Niño cycles: 1982-83, 1986-87, 1991-1993, 1994-95 and 1997-98.

The La Niño phenomenon, the opposite of El Niño, manifests itself as a decrease in surface water temperature below the climate norm in the eastern tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean. Such cycles were observed in 1984-85, 1988-89 and 1995-96. Unusually cold weather sets in in the eastern Pacific Ocean during this period. During the formation of La Niño, trade winds (easterly) winds from the west coast of the Americas increase significantly. Winds shift the zone of warm water and the “tongue” of cold water stretches for 5000 km, exactly in the place (Ecuador - Samoa Islands) where during El Niño there should be a belt of warm waters. During this period, heavy monsoon rains are observed in Indochina, India and Australia. The countries of the Caribbean and the United States are suffering from droughts and tornadoes. La Niño, like El Niño, most often occurs from December to March. The difference is that El Niño occurs on average once every three to four years, while La Niño occurs once every six to seven years. Both events bring with them an increased number of hurricanes, but La Niño has three to four times as many hurricanes as El Niño.

According to recent observations, the reliability of the onset of El Niño or La Niño can be determined if:

1. Near the equator, in the eastern Pacific Ocean, a patch of warmer than normal water (El Niño) and colder water (La Niño) forms.

2. The atmospheric pressure trend between the port of Darwin (Australia) and the island of Tahiti is compared. During an El Niño, pressure will be high in Tahiti and low in Darwin. During La Niño it is the other way around.

Research over the past 50 years has established that El Niño is more than just coordinated fluctuations in surface pressure and ocean temperature. El Niño and La Niño are the most pronounced manifestations of interannual climate variability on a global scale. These phenomena represent large-scale changes in ocean temperatures, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and vertical air movements over the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Abnormal weather conditions on the globe during El Niño years

In the tropics, there is an increase in precipitation over areas east of the central Pacific Ocean and a decrease from normal over northern Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines. In December-February, precipitation above normal is observed along the coast of Ecuador, in northwestern Peru, over southern Brazil, central Argentina and over the equatorial, eastern part of Africa, during June-August in the western United States and over central Chile.

El Niño events are also responsible for large-scale air temperature anomalies around the world. During these years there are outstanding temperature rises. Warmer than normal conditions in December-February were over south-east Asia, over Primorye, Japan, Sea of ​​Japan, over southeastern Africa and Brazil, southeastern Australia. Warmer than normal temperatures occur in June-August along the western coast of South America and over southeastern Brazil. Colder winters (December-February) occur along the southwest coast of the United States.

Abnormal weather conditions on the globe during La Niño years

During La Niño periods, precipitation increases over the western equatorial Pacific, Indonesia and the Philippines, and is almost completely absent over the eastern part. More precipitation falls in December-February over northern South America and over South Africa, and in June-August over southeastern Australia. Drier than normal conditions occur over the coast of Ecuador, over northwestern Peru and equatorial eastern Africa during December-February, and over southern Brazil and central Argentina during June-August. There are large-scale abnormalities occurring around the world, with the largest number areas experiencing abnormally cool conditions. Cold winters in Japan and the Maritimes, over southern Alaska and western, central Canada. Cool summer seasons over southeast Africa, India and southeast Asia. Warmer winters over the southwestern United States.

Some aspects of teleconnection

Despite the fact that the main events associated with El Niño occur in the tropical zone, they are closely related to processes occurring in other regions of the globe. This can be seen in long-distance communications across territory and time - teleconnections. During El Niño years, energy transfer into the troposphere of tropical and temperate latitudes increases. This is manifested in an increase in thermal contrasts between tropical and polar latitudes, and intensification of cyclonic and anticyclonic activity in temperate latitudes. The DVNIIGMI carried out calculations of the frequency of cyclones and anticyclones in the northern part of the Pacific Ocean from 120° east. up to 120° W It turned out that cyclones in the band 40°-60° N. and anticyclones in the band 25°-40° N. is formed in subsequent winters after El Niño more than in previous ones, i.e. processes in the winter months after El Niño are characterized by greater activity than before this period.

During El Niño years:

1. the Honolulu and Asian anticyclones are weakened;

2. the summer depression over southern Eurasia is filled, which is main reason weakening of the monsoon over India;

3. The summer depression over the Amur basin is more developed than usual, as well as the winter Aleutian and Icelandic depressions.

On the territory of Russia during El Niño years, areas of significant air temperature anomalies are identified. In spring, the temperature field is characterized by negative anomalies, that is, spring in El Niño years is usually cold in most of Russia. In summer, a center of negative anomalies remains over the Far East and Eastern Siberia, and centers of positive air temperature anomalies appear over Western Siberia and the European part of Russia. In the autumn months, no significant air temperature anomalies were identified over the territory of Russia. It should only be noted that in the European part of the country the temperature background is slightly lower than usual. El Niño years experience warm winters over most of the area. The focus of negative anomalies can be traced only over the northeast of Eurasia.

We are currently in a weakening period of the El Niño cycle - a period of average ocean surface temperature distribution. (El Niño and La Niño represent opposite extremes of ocean water pressure and temperature cycles.)

Over the past few years, great strides have been made in the comprehensive study of the El Niño phenomenon. Scientists believe that the key issues in this problem are the oscillations of the atmosphere-ocean-Earth system. In this case, the atmospheric oscillations are the so-called Southern Oscillation (coordinated fluctuations in surface pressure in the subtropical anticyclone in the southeast Pacific Ocean and in the trough stretching from northern Australia to Indonesia), ocean oscillations - the El Niño and La Niño phenomena and the Earth oscillations - movement of geographic poles. Also of great importance when studying the El Niño phenomenon is the study of the impact of external cosmic factors on the Earth’s atmosphere.

Especially for Primpogoda, the leading weather forecasters of the Weather Forecast Department of the Primorsky UGMS T. D. Mikhailenko and E. Yu. Leonova

Phenomenon La Nina ("girl" in Spanish)) is characterized by an anomalous decrease in water surface temperature in the central and eastern part of the tropical Pacific Ocean. This process is the reverse of El Nino ("boy"), which, on the contrary, is associated with warming in the same zone. These states replace each other with a frequency of about a year.

Both El Niño and La Niña influence circulation patterns of ocean and atmospheric currents, which in turn influence weather and climate across the globe, causing droughts in some regions and hurricanes and heavy rainfall in others.

Following a period of neutrality in the El Niño-La Niña cycle observed in mid-2011, the tropical Pacific began to cool in August, with weak to moderate La Niña observed from October to date.

"Mathematical model forecasts and their expert interpretation indicate that La Niña is close to maximum strength and is likely to begin to slowly weaken in the coming months. However, current methods cannot forecast beyond May, so it is unclear what the situation will be will develop in the Pacific Ocean - whether it will be El Niño, La Niña or a neutral situation,” the report says.

Scientists note that La Niña 2011-2012 was significantly weaker than in 2010-2011. Models predict that temperatures in the Pacific Ocean will approach neutral levels between March and May 2012.

La Niña 2010 was accompanied by a decrease in cloud cover and increased trade winds. The decrease in pressure led to heavy rain in Australia, Indonesia and countries South-East Asia. In addition, according to meteorologists, it is La Niña that is responsible for heavy rains in southern and drought in eastern equatorial Africa, as well as for the drought situation in central regions southwest Asia and South America.

El Niño(Spanish) El Niño— Baby, Boy) or Southern Oscillation(English) El Niño/La Niña - Southern Oscillation, ENSO ) is a fluctuation in the temperature of the surface layer of water in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, which has a noticeable effect on the climate. In more in the narrow sense El Niño — phase of the Southern Oscillation, in which the area of ​​heated surface waters shifts to the east. At the same time, trade winds weaken or stop altogether, and upwelling slows down in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, off the coast of Peru. The opposite phase of oscillation is called La Niña(Spanish) La Nina— Baby, Girl). The characteristic oscillation time is from 3 to 8 years, but the strength and duration of El Niño in reality varies greatly. Thus, in 1790-1793, 1828, 1876-1878, 1891, 1925-1926, 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, powerful phases of El Niño were recorded, while, for example, in 1991-1992, 1993, 1994 this phenomenon , often repeating, was weakly expressed. El Niño 1997-1998 was so strong that it attracted the attention of the world community and the press. At the same time, theories about the connection of the Southern Oscillation with global climate change spread. Since the early 1980s, El Niño also occurred in 1986–1987 and 2002–2003.

Normal conditions along the western coast of Peru are determined by the cold Peruvian Current, which carries water from the south. Where the current turns to the west, along the equator, cold and plankton-rich waters rise from deep depressions, which contributes to the active development of life in the ocean. The cold current itself determines the aridity of the climate in this part of Peru, forming deserts. Trade winds drive the heated surface layer of water into the western zone of the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the so-called tropical warm pool (TTB) is formed. In it, the water is heated to depths of 100-200 m. The Walker atmospheric circulation, manifested in the form of trade winds, coupled with low pressure over the Indonesian region, leads to the fact that in this place the level of the Pacific Ocean is 60 cm higher than in its eastern part . And the water temperature here reaches 29 - 30 °C versus 22 - 24 °C off the coast of Peru. However, everything changes with the onset of El Niño. The trade winds are weakening, the TTB is spreading, and water temperatures are rising across a vast area of ​​the Pacific Ocean. In the region of Peru, the cold current is replaced by a warm water mass moving from the west to the coast of Peru, upwelling weakens, fish die without food, and westerly winds bring moist air masses and rainfall to the deserts, even causing floods. The onset of El Niño reduces the activity of Atlantic tropical cyclones.

The first mention of the term "El Niño" dates back to 1892, when Captain Camilo Carrilo reported at the Congress of the Geographical Society in Lima that Peruvian sailors called the warm northerly current "El Niño" because it was most noticeable around Christmas. In 1893, Charles Todd suggested that droughts in India and Australia were occurring at the same time. Norman Lockyer also pointed out the same thing in 1904. The connection between the warm northerly current off the coast of Peru and floods in that country was reported in 1895 by Peset and Eguiguren. The phenomena of the Southern Oscillation were first described in 1923 by Gilbert Thomas Walker. He introduced the terms Southern Oscillation, El Niño and La Niña, and examined the zonal convection circulation in the atmosphere in the equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean, which now received his name. For a long time, almost no attention was paid to the phenomenon, considering it regional. Only towards the end of the 20th century. The connection between El Niño and the planet’s climate has been clarified.

El Niño 1997 (TOPEX)

Quantitative description

Currently, for a quantitative description of the phenomena, El Niño and La Niña are defined as temperature anomalies of the surface layer of the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean lasting at least 5 months, expressed in a deviation of water temperature by 0.5 °C higher (El Niño) or lower (La Niña) side.

First signs of El Niño:

1. Increase in air pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia.
2. A drop in pressure over Tahiti, over the central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean.
3. Weakening of the trade winds in the South Pacific until they cease and the wind direction changes to the westerly.
4. Warm air mass in Peru, rain in the Peruvian deserts.

In itself, an increase in water temperature off the coast of Peru by 0.5 °C is considered only a condition for the occurrence of El Niño. Typically, such an anomaly can exist for several weeks and then disappear safely. But only five-month anomaly classified as an El Niño event, can cause significant damage to the region’s economy due to a drop in fish catches.

Also used to describe El Niño Southern Oscillation Index(English) Southern Oscillation Index, SOI ). It is calculated as the difference in pressure over Tahiti and over Darwin (Australia). Negative index values ​​indicate about the El Niño phase, and positive ones - about La Niña .

The influence of El Niño on the climate of various regions

In South America, the El Niño effect is most pronounced. This phenomenon typically causes warm and very humid summer periods (December to February) along the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador. When El Niño is strong, it causes severe flooding. This, for example, happened in January 2011. Southern Brazil and northern Argentina also experience wetter than usual periods, but mainly in the spring and early summer. Central Chile experiences mild winters with plenty of rain, while Peru and Bolivia occasionally experience unusual winter snowfalls for the region. Drier and warmer weather is observed in the Amazon, Colombia and Central America. Humidity is falling in Indonesia, increasing the likelihood of forest fires. This also applies to the Philippines and northern Australia. From June to August, dry weather occurs in Queensland, Victoria, New South Wales and eastern Tasmania. In Antarctica, the western Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Land, Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas are covered with large amounts of snow and ice. At the same time, the pressure increases and becomes warmer. In North America, winters generally become warmer in the Midwest and Canada. Central and southern California, northwestern Mexico and the southeastern United States are becoming wetter, while the Pacific Northwest states are becoming drier. During La Niña, on the other hand, the Midwest becomes drier. El Niño also leads to reduced Atlantic hurricane activity. Eastern Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania and the White Nile Basin, experiences long rainy seasons from March to May. Droughts plague southern and central Africa from December to February, mainly Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana.

An El Niño-like effect is sometimes observed in the Atlantic Ocean, where water along the equatorial coast of Africa becomes warmer and water off the coast of Brazil becomes colder. Moreover, there is a connection between this circulation and El Niño.

Impact of El Niño on health and society

El Niño causes extreme weather conditions associated with cycles in the incidence of epidemic diseases. El Niño is associated with an increased risk of mosquito-borne diseases: malaria, dengue fever, and Rift Valley fever. Malaria cycles are associated with El Niño in India, Venezuela and Colombia. There has been an association with outbreaks of Australian encephalitis (Murray Valley Encephalitis - MVE) occurring in south-eastern Australia following heavy rainfall and flooding caused by La Niña. A notable example is the severe outbreak of Rift Valley fever that occurred due to El Niño following extreme rainfall events in northeastern Kenya and southern Somalia in 1997-98.

It is also believed that El Niño may be associated with the cyclical nature of wars and the emergence of civil conflicts in countries whose climate is influenced by El Niño. A study of data from 1950 to 2004 found that El Niño was associated with 21% of all civil conflicts during that period. At the same time, the risk of civil war in El Niño years it is twice as high as in La Niña years. It is likely that the connection between climate and military action is mediated by crop failures, which often occur in hot years.

The La Niña phenomenon is an anomalous cooling of the surface in the central and eastern parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean in winter. As Japanese meteorologists reported, the lowest temperatures were recorded in mid-February, but by early March the indicators had returned to normal levels. According to weather forecasters, this is a sign of the imminent final approach to the fall - at least in Japan, located in the Pacific Ocean. Experts are currently studying the possibility of an opposite phenomenon, El Niño, occurring in the coming summer, which is characterized by an anomalous increase in water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

La Niña typically results in heavy rainfall and tropical storms on the west coast of South America, south-east Asia and eastern equatorial Africa. Nevertheless, this phenomenon can influence the weather on a global scale. In particular, this winter the phenomenon became one of the factors that led to severe cold in Europe, ITAR-TASS reports.

http://news.rambler.ru/13104180/33618609/

The climate phenomenon La Niña, associated with a drop in water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and influencing weather patterns across almost the entire globe, has disappeared and is not likely to return until the end of 2012, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.

The La Nina phenomenon (La Nina, "girl" in Spanish) is characterized by an anomalous decrease in surface water temperature in the central and eastern part of the tropical Pacific Ocean. This process is the opposite of El Niño (El Nino, “the boy”), which, on the contrary, is associated with warming in the same zone. These states replace each other with a frequency of about a year.

Following a period of neutrality in the El Niño–La Niña cycle observed in mid-2011, the tropical Pacific began to cool in August and has experienced weak to moderate La Niña from October to date. By early April, La Niña had completely disappeared, and neutral conditions are still observed in the equatorial Pacific, experts write.

“(Analysis of modeling results) suggests that La Niña is unlikely to return this year, while the probabilities of remaining neutral and El Niño occurring in the second half of the year are approximately equal,” the WMO said.

Both El Niño and La Niña influence circulation patterns of ocean and atmospheric currents, which in turn influence weather and climate across the globe, causing droughts in some regions and hurricanes and heavy rainfall in others.
Message from 05/17/2012

The La Niña climate phenomenon that occurred in 2011 was so strong that it ultimately caused global sea levels to drop by as much as 5mm. With the advent of La Niña, there was a shift in Pacific surface temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns around the world, as terrestrial moisture began to leave the ocean and be directed to land in the form of rain in Australia, northern South America, and Southeast Asia .

The alternating dominance of the warm oceanic phase of the Southern Oscillation, El Niño, and the cold phase, La Niña, can change global sea levels so dramatically, but satellite data inexorably indicates that global levels have The waters still rise to a height of about 3 mm.

As soon as El Niño arrives, the rise in water levels begins to occur faster, but with a change in phases almost every five years, a diametrically opposite phenomenon is observed. The strength of the effect of a particular phase also depends on other factors and clearly reflects the general climate change towards its harshness. Many scientists around the world are studying both phases of the southern oscillation, as they contain many clues to what is happening on Earth and what awaits it.

A moderate to strong La Niña atmospheric phenomenon will continue in the tropical Pacific until April 2011. This is according to an El Niño/La Niña advisory issued on Monday by the World Meteorological Organization.

As the document highlights, all model-based forecasts predict a continuation or possible intensification of the La Niña phenomenon over the next 4-6 months, ITAR-TASS reports.

La Niña, which this year formed in June-July, replacing the El Niño phenomenon that ended in April, is characterized by unusually low water temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial parts of the Pacific Ocean. This disrupts normal tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns. El Niño is exactly the opposite phenomenon, which is characterized by unusual high temperatures waters in the Pacific Ocean.

The effects of these phenomena can be felt in many parts of the planet, expressed in floods, storms, droughts, increases or, conversely, decreases in temperatures. Typically, La Niña results in heavy winter rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific, Indonesia, and the Philippines, and severe droughts in Ecuador, northwestern Peru, and eastern equatorial Africa.

La Niña, which may increase in intensity and continue until the end of this year or the beginning of next year.

The latest DoD report on El Niño and La Niña phenomena states that the current La Niña event will peak later this year, but the intensity will be less than it was in the second half of 2010. Due to its uncertainty, the MoD invites the countries of the Pacific Ocean basin to closely monitor its development and promptly report possible droughts and floods due to it.

The La Niña phenomenon refers to the phenomenon of an anomalous long-term large-scale cooling of the waters in the eastern and central parts of the Pacific Ocean near the equator, which gives rise to a global climate anomaly. The previous La Niña event resulted in spring drought along the western Pacific coast, including China.

The natural phenomenon El Niño, which took place in 1997-1998, had no equal in scale in the entire history of observations. What is this mysterious phenomenon, which caused so much noise and attracted intense media attention?

In scientific terms, El Niño is a complex of interdependent changes in thermobaric and chemical parameters of the ocean and atmosphere, taking on the character natural Disasters. According to reference literature, it is a warm current that sometimes occurs for unknown reasons off the coast of Ecuador, Peru and Chile. Translated from Spanish, "El Niño" means "baby". Peruvian fishermen gave it this name because warming waters and associated mass fish kills usually occur at the end of December and coincide with Christmas. Our magazine already wrote about this phenomenon in No. 1 in 1993, but since that time researchers have accumulated a lot of new information.

NORMAL SITUATION

To understand the anomalous nature of the phenomenon, let us first consider the usual (standard) climate situation off the South American coast of the Pacific Ocean. It is quite peculiar and is determined by the Peruvian Current, which carries cold waters from Antarctica along the western coast of South America to the Galapagos Islands lying on the equator. Usually the trade winds blowing here from the Atlantic, crossing the high-mountain barrier of the Andes, leave moisture on their eastern slopes. And therefore the western coast of South America is a dry rocky desert, where rain is extremely rare - sometimes it does not fall for years. When the trade winds collect so much moisture that they carry it to the western shores of the Pacific Ocean, they form here the predominant westerly direction of surface currents, causing a surge of water off the coast. It is unloaded by the counter-trade Cromwell Current in the equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean, which covers a 400-kilometer strip here and, at depths of 50-300 m, transports huge masses of water back to the east.

The attention of specialists is attracted by the colossal biological productivity of coastal Peruvian-Chilean waters. Here, in a small space, constituting a fraction of a percent of the entire water area of ​​the World Ocean, the annual production of fish (mainly anchovy) exceeds 20% of the global total. Its abundance attracts huge flocks of fish-eating birds - cormorants, gannets, pelicans. And in areas where they accumulate, colossal masses of guano (bird droppings) - a valuable nitrogen-phosphorus fertilizer - are concentrated; its deposits, ranging in thickness from 50 to 100 m, became the object of industrial development and export.

CATASTROPHE

During El Niño years, the situation changes dramatically. First, the water temperature rises by several degrees and mass death or departure of fish from this water area begins, and as a result, birds disappear. Then, in the eastern part of the Pacific, atmospheric pressure drops, clouds appear above it, trade winds subside, and air flows over the entire equatorial zone oceans change direction. Now they go from west to east, carrying moisture from Pacific region and bringing it down on the Peruvian-Chilean coast.

Events are developing especially catastrophically at the foot of the Andes, which now block the path of the western winds and receive all their moisture onto their slopes. As a result, floods, mudflows, and floods are raging in a narrow strip of rocky coastal deserts on the western coast (at the same time, the territories of the Western Pacific region are suffering from terrible drought: tropical forests are burning in Indonesia and New Guinea, and agricultural yields are sharply falling in Australia). To top it all off, so-called “red tides” are developing from the Chilean coast to California, caused by the rapid growth of microscopic algae.

So, the chain of catastrophic events begins with a noticeable warming of surface waters in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, which Lately successfully used to predict El Niño. A network of buoy stations has been installed in this water area; with their help, the temperature of ocean water is constantly measured, and the data obtained is promptly transmitted via satellites to research centers. As a result, it was possible to warn in advance about the onset of the most powerful El Niño known to date - in 1997-98.

At the same time, the reason for the heating of ocean water, and therefore the occurrence of El Niño itself, is still not completely clear. Oceanographers explain the appearance of warm water south of the equator by a change in the direction of the prevailing winds, while meteorologists consider the change in winds to be a consequence of heating the water. Thus, a kind of vicious circle is created.

To get closer to understanding the genesis of El Niño, let us pay attention to a number of circumstances that are usually overlooked by climate specialists.

EL NINO DEGASION SCENARIO

For geologists, the following fact is absolutely obvious: El Niño develops over one of the most geologically active areas of the world rift system - the East Pacific Rise, where the maximum spreading rate (spreading of the ocean floor) reaches 12-15 cm/year. In the axial zone of this underwater ridge, a very high heat flow from the earth’s interior is noted, manifestations of modern basaltic volcanism are known here, and outcrops have been discovered thermal waters and traces of the intensive process of modern ore formation in the form of numerous black and white “smokers”.

In the water area between 20 and 35 south. w. Nine hydrogen jets were recorded at the bottom - the release of this gas from the bowels of the earth. In 1994, an international expedition discovered the world's most powerful hydrothermal system here. In its gas emanations, the 3 He/4 He isotope ratios turned out to be abnormally high, which means that the source of degassing is located at great depths.

A similar situation is typical for other “hot spots” on the planet - Iceland, Hawaii, and the Red Sea. There, at the bottom there are powerful centers of hydrogen-methane degassing and above them, most often in the Northern Hemisphere, the ozone layer is destroyed
, which gives grounds to apply the model I created for the destruction of the ozone layer by hydrogen and methane flows to El Niño.

This is roughly how this process begins and develops. Hydrogen, released from the ocean floor from the rift valley of the East Pacific Rise (its sources were instrumentally discovered there) and reaching the surface, reacts with oxygen. As a result, heat is generated, which begins to warm up the water. The conditions here are very favorable for oxidative reactions: the surface layer of water is enriched with oxygen during wave interaction with the atmosphere.

However, the question arises: can hydrogen coming from the bottom reach the ocean surface in noticeable quantities? A positive answer was given by the results of American researchers who discovered twice the content of this gas in the air over the Gulf of California, compared to the background level. But here at the bottom there are hydrogen-methane sources with a total flow rate of 1.6 x 10 8 m 3 /year.

Hydrogen, rising from the depths of water into the stratosphere, forms an ozone hole into which ultraviolet and infrared solar radiation “falls”. Falling onto the surface of the ocean, it intensifies the heating of its upper layer that has begun (due to the oxidation of hydrogen). Most likely, it is the additional energy of the Sun that is the main and determining factor in this process. The role of oxidative reactions in heating is more problematic. This could not be discussed if it were not for the significant (from 36 to 32.7% o) desalination of ocean water that occurs simultaneously with it. The latter is probably accomplished by the very addition of water that is formed during the oxidation of hydrogen.

Due to the heating of the surface layer of the ocean, the solubility of CO 2 in it decreases, and it is released into the atmosphere. For example, during the El Niño of 1982-83. An additional 6 billion tons of carbon dioxide entered the air. Water evaporation also increases, and clouds appear over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Both water vapor and CO 2 are greenhouse gases; they absorb thermal radiation and become an excellent accumulator of additional energy coming through the ozone hole.

Gradually the process is gaining momentum. Anomalous heating of the air leads to a decrease in pressure, and a cyclonic region forms over the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. It is this that breaks the standard trade wind pattern of atmospheric dynamics in the area and “sucks” air from the western part of the Pacific Ocean. Following the subsidence of the trade winds, the surge of water off the Peruvian-Chilean coast decreases and the equatorial Cromwell countercurrent ceases to operate. Strong heating of the water leads to the formation of typhoons, which is very rare in normal years (due to the cooling influence of the Peruvian Current). From 1980 to 1989, ten typhoons occurred here, seven of them in 1982-83, when El Niño raged.

BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTIVITY

Why is biological productivity so high off the west coast of South America? According to experts, it is the same as in the abundantly “fertilized” fish ponds of Asia, and 50 thousand times higher (!) than in other parts of the Pacific Ocean, if calculated by the number of fish caught. Traditionally, this phenomenon is explained by upwelling - a wind-driven movement of warm water from the shore, forcing cold water enriched with nutritional components, mainly nitrogen and phosphorus, to rise from the depths. During El Niño years, when the wind changes direction, upwelling is interrupted, and therefore, the flow of nutrient water stops. As a result, fish and birds die or migrate due to starvation.

All this resembles a perpetual motion machine: the abundance of life in surface waters is explained by the supply of nutrients from below, and their excess below is explained by the abundance of life above, because dying organic matter settles to the bottom. However, what is primary here, what gives impetus to such a cycle? Why does it not dry up, although, judging by the power of the guano deposits, it has been active for millennia?

The mechanism of wind upwelling itself is not very clear. The associated rise of deep water is usually determined by measuring its temperature on profiles of different levels oriented perpendicular to the coastline. Isotherms are then constructed that show the same low temperatures near the coast and at great depths away from it. And in the end they conclude that cold waters are rising. But it is known: the low temperature near the coast is caused by the Peruvian Current, so the described method for determining the rise of deep waters is hardly correct. Finally, another ambiguity: the profiles mentioned are built across the coastline, and the prevailing winds here blow along it.

I am by no means going to overthrow the concept of wind upwelling - it is based on an understandable physical phenomenon and has a right to life. However, upon closer acquaintance with it in this area of ​​the ocean, all of the listed problems inevitably arise. Therefore, I propose a different explanation for the anomalous biological productivity off the western coast of South America: it is again determined by the degassing of the earth’s interior.

In fact, not the entire Peruvian-Chilean coastal strip is equally productive, as it should be under the influence of climatic upwelling. There are two separate “spots” here - northern and southern, and their position is controlled by tectonic factors. The first is located above a powerful fault extending from the ocean to the continent south of the Mendana fault (6-8 o S) and parallel to it. The second spot, somewhat smaller in size, is located just north of the Nazca Ridge (13-14 S latitude). All of these oblique (diagonal) geological structures running from the East Pacific Rise towards South America are essentially degassing zones; through them, a huge number of different chemical compounds flow from the earth’s interior to the bottom and into the water column. Among them there is, of course, vital important elements- nitrogen, phosphorus, manganese, and enough microelements. In the thickness of the coastal Peruvian-Ecuadorian waters, the oxygen content is the lowest in the entire World Ocean, since the main volume here is made up of reduced gases - methane, hydrogen sulfide, hydrogen, ammonia. But the thin surface layer (20-30 m) is abnormally rich in oxygen due to the low temperature of the water brought here from Antarctica by the Peruvian Current. In this layer above fault zones - sources of endogenous nutrients - unique conditions for the development of life are created.

However, there is an area in the World Ocean that is not inferior in bioproductivity to the Peruvian one, and perhaps even superior to it - off the western coast of South Africa. It is also considered a wind upwelling zone. But the position of the most productive area here (Walvis Bay) is again controlled by tectonic factors: it is located above a powerful fault zone running from the Atlantic Ocean to the African continent somewhat north of the South Tropic. And the cold, oxygen-rich Benguela Current runs along the coast from Antarctica.

The region of the Southern Kuril Islands, where the cold current passes over the submeridional marginal ocean fault Jonah, is also distinguished by its colossal fish productivity. At the height of the saury season, literally the entire Far Eastern fishing fleet of Russia gathers in a small water area of ​​the South Kuril Strait. It is appropriate here to recall Kuril Lake in Southern Kamchatka, where one of the largest spawning grounds of sockeye salmon (a type of Far Eastern salmon) is located in our country. The reason for the very high biological productivity of the lake, according to experts, is the natural “fertilization” of its water with volcanic emanations (it is located between two volcanoes - Ilyinsky and Kambalny).

However, let's return to El Niño. During the period when degassing intensifies off the coast of South America, the thin, oxygenated and teeming with life surface layer of water is blown through with methane and hydrogen, oxygen disappears, and the mass death of all living things begins: a huge number of bones are lifted from the bottom of the sea by trawls large fish, seals are dying on the Galapagos Islands. However, it is unlikely that the fauna is dying due to a decrease in ocean bioproductivity, as the traditional version says. She is most likely poisoned by poisonous gases rising from the bottom. After all, death comes suddenly and overtakes the entire marine community - from phytoplankton to vertebrates. Only birds die from hunger, and even then mostly chicks - adults simply leave the danger zone.

"RED TIDES"

However, after the mass disappearance of the biota, the amazing riot of life off the western coast of South America does not stop. In oxygen-deprived waters blown with toxic gases, single-celled algae - dinoflagellates - begin to rapidly develop. This phenomenon is known as "red tide" and is so named because only intensely colored algae thrive in such conditions. Their color is a kind of protection from solar ultraviolet radiation, acquired back in the Proterozoic (over 2 billion years ago), when there was no ozone layer and the surface of reservoirs was subjected to intense ultraviolet irradiation. So during “red tides” the ocean seems to return to its “pre-oxygen” past. Due to the abundance of microscopic algae, some marine organisms that usually act as water filters, such as oysters, become poisonous at this time and their consumption can lead to severe poisoning.

Within the framework of the gas-geochemical model I developed for the anomalous bioproductivity of local areas of the ocean and the periodically rapid death of biota in it, other phenomena are also explained: the massive accumulation of fossil fauna in ancient shales of Germany or phosphorites of the Moscow region, overflowing with the remains of fish bones and cephalopod shells.

MODEL CONFIRMED

I will give some facts indicating the reality of the El Niño degassing scenario.

During the years of its manifestation, the seismic activity of the East Pacific Rise sharply increases - this was the conclusion made by the American researcher D. Walker, having analyzed the relevant observations from 1964 to 1992 in the area of ​​​​this underwater ridge between 20 and 40 degrees. w. But, as has long been established, seismic events are often accompanied by increased degassing of the earth’s interior. The model I developed is also supported by the fact that the waters off the western coast of South America literally boil with the release of gases during El Niño years. The hulls of ships are covered with black spots (the phenomenon is called “El Pintor”, translated from Spanish as “the painter”), and the foul smell of hydrogen sulfide spreads over large areas.

In the African Gulf of Walvis Bay (mentioned above as an area of ​​anomalous bioproductivity), environmental crises also periodically arise, following the same scenario as off the coast of South America. Emissions of gases begin in this bay, which leads to massive fish deaths, then “red tides” develop here, and the smell of hydrogen sulfide on land is felt even 40 miles from the coast. All this is traditionally associated with the abundant release of hydrogen sulfide, but its formation is explained by the decomposition of organic residues into seabed. Although it is much more logical to consider hydrogen sulfide as a common component of deep emanations - after all, it comes out here only above the fault zone. The penetration of gas far onto land is also easier to explain by its arrival from the same fault, tracing from the ocean to the interior of the continent.

It is important to note the following: when deep gases enter ocean water, they are separated due to sharply different (by several orders of magnitude) solubility. For hydrogen and helium it is 0.0181 and 0.0138 cm 3 in 1 cm 3 of water (at temperatures up to 20 C and a pressure of 0.1 MPa), and for hydrogen sulfide and ammonia it is incomparably greater: 2.6 and 700 cm, respectively 3 in 1 cm 3 . That is why the water above the degassing zones is greatly enriched with these gases.

A strong argument in favor of the El Niño degassing scenario is a map of the average monthly ozone deficiency over the equatorial region of the planet, compiled at the Central Aerological Observatory of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia using satellite data. It clearly shows a powerful ozone anomaly over the axial part of the East Pacific Rise slightly south of the equator. I note that by the time the map was published, I had published a qualitative model explaining the possibility of destruction of the ozone layer above this zone. By the way, this is not the first time that my forecasts of the possible occurrence of ozone anomalies have been confirmed by field observations.

LA NINA

This is the name of the final phase of El Niño - a sharp cooling of water in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, when for a long period its temperature drops several degrees below normal. A natural explanation for this is the simultaneous destruction of the ozone layer both over the equator and over Antarctica. But if in the first case it causes heating of the water (El Niño), then in the second it causes a strong melting of ice in Antarctica. The latter increases the influx of cold water into the Antarctic waters. As a result, the temperature gradient between the equatorial and southern parts of the Pacific Ocean sharply increases, and this leads to an intensification of the cold Peruvian Current, which cools the equatorial waters after the weakening of degassing and restoration of the ozone layer.

THE RIGITAL CAUSE IS IN SPACE

First, I would like to say a few “justifying” words about El Niño. The media, to put it mildly, are not entirely right when they accuse him of causing disasters such as floods in South Korea or unprecedented frosts in Europe. After all, deep degassing can simultaneously increase in many areas of the planet, which leads there to the destruction of the ozonosphere and the appearance of anomalous natural phenomena, which have already been mentioned. For example, the heating of water that precedes the occurrence of El Niño occurs under ozone anomalies not only in the Pacific, but also in other oceans.

As for the intensification of deep degassing, it is determined, in my opinion, by cosmic factors, mainly by the gravitational effect on the liquid core of the Earth, where the main planetary reserves of hydrogen are contained. An important role in this case is probably played by the relative position of the planets and, first of all, interactions in the Earth - Moon - Sun system. G.I. Voitov and his colleagues from the Joint Institute of Physics of the Earth named after. O. Yu. Schmidt of the Russian Academy of Sciences established long ago: degassing of the subsoil noticeably increases during periods close to the full moon and new moon. It is also influenced by the position of the Earth in its circumsolar orbit and by changes in its rotation speed. The complex combination of all these external factors with processes in the depths of the planet (for example, the crystallization of its inner core) determines the pulses of increased planetary degassing, and hence the El Niño phenomenon. Its 2-7-year quasi-periodicity was revealed by domestic researcher N. S. Sidorenko (Hydrometeorological Center of Russia), having analyzed a continuous series of atmospheric pressure differences between the stations of Tahiti (on the island of the same name in the Pacific Ocean) and Darwin (northern coast of Australia) over a long period - since 1866 to the present time.

Candidate of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences V. L. SYVOROTKIN, Moscow State University them. M. V. Lomonosova