A military clash arose here, since the vast majority of the inhabitants inhabiting the area have Armenian roots. The essence of the conflict is that Azerbaijan makes well-founded demands on this territory, but the inhabitants of the region gravitate more towards Armenia. On May 12, 1994, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh ratified a protocol establishing a truce, resulting in an unconditional ceasefire in the conflict zone.

Excursion into history

Armenian historical sources claim that Artsakh (the ancient Armenian name) was first mentioned in the 8th century BC. If you believe these sources, then Nagorno-Karabakh was part of Armenia back in the early Middle Ages. As a result of the wars of conquest between Turkey and Iran in this era, a significant part of Armenia came under the control of these countries. The Armenian principalities, or melikties, at that time located on the territory of modern Karabakh, retained a semi-independent status.

Azerbaijan takes its own point of view on this issue. According to local researchers, Karabakh is one of the most ancient historical regions of their country. The word “Karabakh” in Azerbaijani is translated as follows: “gara” means black, and “bagh” means garden. Already in the 16th century, together with other provinces, Karabakh was part of the Safavid state, and after that it became an independent khanate.

Nagorno-Karabakh during the Russian Empire

In 1805, the Karabakh Khanate was subordinated to the Russian Empire, and in 1813, according to the Gulistan Peace Treaty, Nagorno-Karabakh also became part of Russia. Then, according to the Turkmenchay Treaty, as well as the agreement concluded in the city of Edirne, Armenians were resettled from Turkey and Iran and settled in the territories of Northern Azerbaijan, including Karabakh. Thus, the population of these lands is predominantly of Armenian origin.

As part of the USSR

In 1918, the newly created Azerbaijan Democratic Republic gained control over Karabakh. Almost simultaneously, the Armenian Republic makes claims to this area, but the ADR made these claims. In 1921, the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh with the rights of broad autonomy was included in the Azerbaijan SSR. After another two years, Karabakh receives the status of (NKAO).

In 1988, the Council of Deputies of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Okrug petitioned the authorities of the AzSSR and Armenian SSR republics and proposed to transfer the disputed territory to Armenia. was not satisfied, as a result of which a wave of protest swept through the cities of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Okrug. Demonstrations of solidarity were also held in Yerevan.

Declaration of Independence

In the early autumn of 1991, when Soviet Union has already begun to fall apart, the Declaration is adopted in NKAO, proclaiming the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Moreover, in addition to the NKAO, it included part of the territories of the former AzSSR. According to the results of a referendum held on December 10 of the same year in Nagorno-Karabakh, more than 99% of the region's population voted for complete independence from Azerbaijan.

It is quite obvious that the Azerbaijani authorities did not recognize this referendum, and the act of proclamation itself was designated as illegal. Moreover, Baku decided to abolish the autonomy of Karabakh, which it had in Soviet time. However, the destructive process has already been launched.

Karabakh conflict

Armenian troops stood up for the independence of the self-proclaimed republic, which Azerbaijan tried to resist. Nagorno-Karabakh received support from official Yerevan, as well as from the national diaspora in other countries, so the militia managed to defend the region. However, the Azerbaijani authorities still managed to establish control over several areas that were initially declared part of the NKR.

Each of the warring parties provides its own statistics of losses in the Karabakh conflict. Comparing these data, we can conclude that during the three years of the showdown, 15-25 thousand people died. At least 25 thousand were wounded, and more than 100 thousand civilians were forced to leave their places of residence.

Peaceful settlement

Negotiations, during which the parties tried to resolve the conflict peacefully, began almost immediately after the independent NKR was proclaimed. For example, on September 23, 1991, a meeting was held, which was attended by the presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia, as well as Russia and Kazakhstan. In the spring of 1992, the OSCE established a group to resolve the Karabakh conflict.

Despite all the efforts of the international community to stop the bloodshed, a ceasefire was achieved only in the spring of 1994. On May 5, the Bishkek Protocol was signed, after which the participants ceased fire a week later.

The parties to the conflict were unable to agree on the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan demands respect for its sovereignty and insists on preserving territorial integrity. The interests of the self-proclaimed republic are protected by Armenia. Nagorno-Karabakh stands for peaceful resolution controversial issues, while the republican authorities emphasize that the NKR is capable of standing up for its independence.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Armenians prefer to use old name Artsakh) is a small territory in Transcaucasia. Mountains cut by deep gorges, turning into valleys in the east, small fast rivers, forests below and steppes higher up the mountain slopes, cool climate without sudden temperature changes. Since ancient times, this territory was inhabited by Armenians, was part of various Armenian states and principalities, and there are numerous monuments of Armenian history and culture on its territory.

At the same time, since the 18th century, a significant Turkic population has penetrated here (the term “Azerbaijanis” was not yet accepted); the territory is part of the Karabakh Khanate, which was ruled by a Turkic dynasty, and the majority of the population were Muslim Turks.

In the first half of the 19th century, as a result of wars with Turkey, Persia and individual khanates, the entire Transcaucasus, including Nagorno-Karabakh, went to Russia. Somewhat later it was divided into provinces without taking into account ethnicity. Thus, at the beginning of the 20th century, Nagorno-Karabakh was part of the Elizavetpol province, most of which was inhabited by Azerbaijanis.

By 1918, the Russian Empire collapsed as a result of well-known revolutionary events. Transcaucasia became the arena of bloody interethnic struggle, which was contained for the time being Russian authorities(It is worth noting that during the previous weakening of imperial power during the revolution of 1905-1907, Karabakh had already become an arena of clashes between Armenians and Azerbaijanis.). The newly formed state of Azerbaijan laid claim to the entire territory of the former Elizavetpol province. The Armenians, who formed the majority in Nagorno-Karabakh, wanted either to be independent or to join the Armenian Republic. The situation was accompanied by military clashes. Even when both states, Armenia and Azerbaijan, became Soviet republics, the territorial dispute between them continued. It was decided in favor of Azerbaijan, but with reservations: most of the territories with an Armenian population were allocated to the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region (NKAO) as part of the Azerbaijan SSR. The reasons why the Union leadership made this decision are unclear. Assumptions include the influence of Turkey (in favor of Azerbaijan), the greater influence of the Azerbaijani “lobby” in the union leadership compared to the Armenian one, Moscow’s desire to maintain a hotbed of tension in order to act as the supreme arbiter, etc.

In Soviet times, the conflict quietly smoldered, breaking through either through petitions from the Armenian public for the transfer of Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia, or through measures of the Azerbaijani leadership to creepingly oust the Armenian population from the areas adjacent to the autonomous region. The abscess broke out as soon as the union power weakened during “perestroika”.

The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh became significant for the Soviet Union. It clearly showed the growing helplessness of the central leadership. He demonstrated for the first time that the Union, which seemed indestructible in accordance with the words of its anthem, could be destroyed. In some ways, it was the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that became the catalyst for the collapse of the Soviet Union. Thus, its significance extends far beyond the region. It is difficult to say what path the history of the USSR, and therefore the whole world, would have taken if Moscow had found the strength to quickly resolve this dispute.

The conflict began in 1987 with mass rallies of the Armenian population under the slogans of reunification with Armenia. The Azerbaijani leadership, with the support of the Union, unequivocally rejects these demands. Attempts to resolve the situation boil down to holding meetings and issuing documents. In the same year, the first Azerbaijani refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh appeared. In 1988, the first blood was shed - two Azerbaijanis died in a clash with Armenians and the police in the village of Askeran. Information about this incident leads to an Armenian pogrom in Azerbaijani Sumgait. This is the first case of mass ethnic violence in the Soviet Union in several decades and the first sound of the death bell for Soviet unity. Then the violence increases, the flow of refugees from both sides increases. The central government demonstrates helplessness; making real decisions is left to the republican authorities. The actions of the latter (deportations of the Armenian population and the economic blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan, the declaration of Nagorno-Karabakh as part of the Armenian SSR by Armenia) are heating up the situation.

Azerbaijani refugees from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict region, 1993.

Since 1990, the conflict has escalated into a war with the use of artillery. Illegal ones are active armed forces. The leadership of the USSR is trying to use force (mainly against the Armenian side), but it is too late - the Soviet Union itself ceases to exist. Independent Azerbaijan declares Nagorno-Karabakh its part. NKAO proclaims independence within the borders of the autonomous region and the Shaumyan region of the Azerbaijan SSR.

The war lasted until 1994, accompanied by war crimes and great sacrifices civilians on both sides. Many cities were reduced to ruins. On the one hand, the armies of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia took part in it, on the other, the armies of Azerbaijan with the support of Muslim volunteers from different countries peace (usually mentioning the Afghan Mujahideen and Chechen militants). The war ended after decisive victories of the Armenian side, which established control over most of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent regions of Azerbaijan. After this, the parties agreed to mediation by the CIS (primarily Russia). Since then, Nagorno-Karabakh has maintained a fragile peace, sometimes broken by skirmishes along the border.

The war is over, but the problem is far from resolved.

Azerbaijan firmly insists on its territorial integrity, agreeing to discuss only the autonomy of the republic. The Armenian side equally firmly insists on the independence of Karabakh. The main obstacle to constructive negotiations is the mutual bitterness of the parties. By pitting nations against each other (or at least not preventing the incitement of hatred), the authorities have fallen into a trap - now it is impossible for them to take a step towards the other side without being accused of treason.

The fourth building of the Shusha sanatorium. In 1988, this building housed the 3217 Infantry Regiment to ensure order and peace in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The depth of the gap between peoples is clearly visible in the coverage of the conflict by both sides. There is not even a hint of objectivity. The parties unanimously keep silent about pages of history that are unfavorable for themselves and immensely inflate the crimes of the enemy.

The Armenian side focuses on the historical belonging of the region to Armenia, on the illegality of the inclusion of Nagorno-Karabakh into the Azerbaijan SSR, and on the right of peoples to self-determination. The crimes of Azerbaijanis against the civilian population are depicted - such as pogroms in Sumgait, Baku, etc. Wherein real events acquire clearly exaggerated features - such as the story about mass cannibalism in Sumgait. Azerbaijan's connection with international Islamic terrorism is rising. From the conflict, accusations shift to the structure of the Azerbaijani state in general.

The Azerbaijani side, in turn, emphasizes the long-standing ties between Karabakh and Azerbaijan (remembering the Turkic Karabakh Khanate) and the principle of the inviolability of borders. The crimes of Armenian militants are also remembered, while their own people are completely forgotten. The connection between Armenia and international Armenian terrorism is indicated. Unflattering conclusions are drawn about the world's Armenians as a whole.

In such a situation, it is extremely difficult for international mediators to act, especially considering the fact that the mediators themselves represent different world forces and act in different interests.

Basic international group trying to resolve the conflict is the so-called OSCE Minsk Group, chaired by Russia, France and the United States.

In general, the group proposed a choice of three settlement plans - a package, a phased one and a comprehensive settlement plan based on the concept of a “common state”. According to the latter, “Nagorno-Karabakh is a state and territorial entity in the form of a Republic and forms a common state with Azerbaijan within its internationally recognized borders” (Quoted from A. Jilavyan, “Karabakh boom.” // “Nezavisimaya Gazeta” dated 02/23/2003). It was assumed that Nagorno-Karabakh would be given broad autonomy, including the right to direct foreign economic activity, the right to security forces (in fact, the army), its own constitution and the issue of its own banknotes. The borders of the republic were established within the NKAO, the border between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan was declared open. Karabakh's budget was to be formed from its own sources.

Such autonomy sounded suspiciously like independence, and Azerbaijan rejected the plan, while Armenia and the NKR accepted it.

The United States proposed its plan in 2006, represented by OSCE Minsk Group co-chair Matthew Bryza. It was based on the following principles:

Armenian forces leave occupied Azerbaijani territories outside the former NKAO;

Diplomatic relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are being normalized;

International peacekeeping forces are stationed in these territories;

A referendum on independence is being held on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Despite the apparent benefits, this plan raised many questions on the Armenian side.

Firstly, the occupied areas create a “security belt” around the NKR. They contain strategically important heights that allow them to shoot through the territory of the unrecognized republic.

Secondly, the territory of the Lachin and Kelbajar regions, which the Armenians must also leave according to Bryza’s plan, is wedged between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. By giving them away, the Karabakh Armenians risk being surrounded.

Thirdly, Armenia stimulated resettlement in the territories of these two regions. What to do with displaced people?

Fourthly, Armenians are interested in the composition peacekeeping forces and their actual ability to deter parties from violence.

Azerbaijanis are not satisfied with the lack of an obligation to return refugees, as well as the ambiguity in holding a referendum - will the votes of Azerbaijanis who left Karabakh as a result of the conflict be taken into account?

Thus, this plan could not reconcile the parties.

The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan met face to face several times to discuss the problem. This happened in 2001 in Paris, and then in Key West (USA) and in 2006 in Paris (Rambouillet Castle). But even in these cases, no agreements could be reached.

IN Lately Hope for progress in resolving the conflict once again rose. Analysts attribute the increased activity of the parties to the Five-Day War in South Ossetia, which changed the balance of power in the Caucasus (primarily the role of Russia) and clearly demonstrated how “frozen” conflicts could end. Since the end of 2008, Russia has been taking measures to bring the parties together at the negotiating table. In November, Russia managed to achieve the signing of a Declaration on the Non-Use of Force at negotiations in the Moscow region. The document states the readiness of the parties “to contribute to the improvement of the situation in the South Caucasus and the establishment of an environment of stability and security in the region through a political settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on the principles and norms international law". An agreement was also reached to hold direct negotiations in June 2009 between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Another regional player is also showing activity - Turkey, which previously spoke from an extremely pro-Azerbaijani position. Last year, Türkiye made some contacts with the Armenian side for the first time.

Celebration of the 20th anniversary of the independence day of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic / Leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia, clergy. September 2, 2011

At the same time, the parties declare their determination to defend principled positions - the integrity of Azerbaijan and the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, respectively. Given the incompatibility of these positions, it is not very clear what the presidents will talk about in June. Perhaps this conflict will be resolved only when generations change and the intensity of hatred between peoples subsides.

It's hard to believe, but Armenians and Azerbaijanis have been killing and hating each other for decades over a small geographical area totaling just under four and a half thousand square kilometers. This region is divided into a mountainous region, where the majority of the population was Armenians, and a lowland region, where Azerbaijanis predominated. The peak of clashes between nations occurred at the time of the collapse Russian Empire And civil war. After the Bolsheviks won, and Armenia and Azerbaijan became part of the USSR, the conflict was frozen for many years.

Nagorno-Karabakh has a total area of ​​just under four and a half thousand square kilometers // Photo: inosmi.ru

By the decision of the Soviet government, Nagorno-Karabakh became part of Azerbaijan. The Armenian population could not come to terms with this for a long time, but resist this decision it was not decided. All manifestations of nationalism were harshly suppressed. And yet, the local population always said that they were part of the USSR, and not the Azerbaijan SSR.

Perestroika and Chardakhlu

Even during Soviet times, clashes on ethnic grounds occurred in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the Kremlin did not attach any importance to this. After all, there was no nationalism in the USSR, and Soviet citizens were a single people. Mikhail Gorbachev's perestroika, with its democratization and glasnost, thawed the conflict.

In the disputed territory itself, no dramatic events took place, unlike the village of Chardakhlu in the Azerbaijan SSR, where a local party leader decided to replace the head of the collective farm. Former head the Armenian was shown the door and an Azerbaijani was appointed instead. This did not suit the residents of Chardakhlu. They refused to recognize the new boss, for which they were beaten, and some were arrested on false charges. This situation again did not cause any reaction from the center, but the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh began to be indignant at what the Azerbaijanis were doing to the Armenians. After this, demands to annex Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia began to sound very loudly and persistently.

The position of the authorities and first blood

At the end of the eighties, Armenian delegations flocked to Moscow, trying to explain to the center that Nagorno-Karabakh is a primordially Armenian territory, which, by a huge mistake, was annexed to Azerbaijan. The leadership was asked to correct historical injustice and return the region to its homeland. These requests were supported by mass rallies in which the Armenian intelligentsia participated. The center listened attentively, but was in no hurry to make any decisions.

Requests to return Nagorno-Karabakh to their homeland were reinforced by mass rallies in which the Armenian intelligentsia participated. The center listened carefully, but was in no hurry to make any decisions // Photo: kavkaz-uzel.eu

Meanwhile, in Nagorno-Karabakh, aggressive sentiment against its neighbor grew by leaps and bounds, especially among young people. The last straw was the march of the Azerbaijanis to Stepanakert. Its participants sincerely believed that largest city In Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenians brutally kill Azerbaijanis, which in fact was not even close to the truth. A crowd of distraught avengers was met by a police cordon near Askeran. Two Azerbaijanis were killed during the suppression of the riot. These events led to mass pogroms in Sumgait, a satellite city of Baku. Azerbaijani nationalists killed twenty-six Armenians and inflicted various injuries on hundreds. The pogrom was stopped only after troops were brought into the city. After this, war became inevitable.

A crisis

The pogrom in Sumgait led to the fact that Azerbaijanis abandoned everything they had acquired and fled from Armenia, fearing death. The Armenians, who by the will of fate ended up in Azerbaijan, did the same. Real military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh began in 1991 after the collapse of the USSR and the declaration of independence by Azerbaijan and Armenia. Nagorno-Karabakh also declared itself sovereign state but his independence is none of foreign countries I was in no hurry to admit.

In the nineties, gangs began open war in Nagorno-Karabakh, and the number of victims moved from dozens to hundreds. The Karabakh war flared up with renewed vigor after the troops of the defunct USSR Ministry of Internal Affairs, which had prevented the massacre from beginning until the very end, were withdrawn from the disputed territory. Armed conflict lasted for three years and was stopped by the signing of an armistice agreement. More than thirty thousand people became victims in this war.

Our days

Despite the truce, clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh did not stop. Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan wanted to cede the disputed territory. This situation led to an extraordinary rise in nationalism. A neutral, rather than hateful, comment about a neighbor was viewed with suspicion.

London and Ankara prepared the next act of Karabakh bloodshed for exactly 100 days. Everything went like clockwork. Under New Year the heads of the defense departments of Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan signed a trilateral defense memorandum with pomp, then, a month later, the British staged a scandalous demarche in PACE with the aim of “cutting the Karabakh knot” in favor of Baku, and now - the third act, in which, according to the laws of the genre, a gun, hanging on the wall, shoots.

Nagorno-Karabakh is bleeding again, there are more than a hundred victims on both sides, and, it seems, not far from new war– in the soft underbelly of Russia. What is happening and how should we react to what is happening?

And the following is happening: in Turkey they are extremely dissatisfied with the “pro-Russian”, as they consider, President Ilham Aliyev. They are so dissatisfied that they are even ready to remove him, either by organizing a “Baku spring” for Aliyev, or by inciting frondeurs from the Azerbaijani military elite. The latter is both more accurate and much cheaper. Please note: when the shooting began in Karabakh, Aliyev was not in Azerbaijan. So who gave the order to shoot in the absence of the president? It turns out that the decision to strike at Armenian settlements was made by Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov, big friend Ankara and, one might say, a protégé of Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. The story of Hasanov’s appointment as minister is little known and clearly worth telling. Because, knowing this history, the current aggravation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict can be seen with completely different eyes.

Azerbaijani Defense Minister - Turkey's protégé

So, Hasanov’s predecessor, Safar Abiyev, was appointed by the father of the current Azerbaijani president, Heydar Aliyev. The experience and managerial sense of a seasoned party functionary and a high-ranking KGB officer allowed Aliyev Sr. to avoid military and near-military coups several times. In 1995, Heydar Aliyev had the opportunity to try his luck twice: in March there was a rebellion inspired by the former Minister of Internal Affairs Iskander Hamidov, and in August there was a “case of the generals” that thundered throughout the country. A group of conspirators, which included two deputy defense ministers, intended to shoot down the presidential plane using a portable air defense system. In general, the famous “fad” of Aliyev Sr. regarding the impending military conspiracy had its own clear explanation (also keeping in mind the betrayal of ex-Minister of Defense Rahim Gaziev, which happened a little earlier). Therefore, it is not surprising that, transferring power to his son, Heydar Agha commanded the heir: beware of a military putsch! At the same time, how could he protect Ilham, because since 1995, the military department has been permanently headed by Safar Abiyev, loyal to the Aliyev family.

On this topic

Last but not least, it was thanks to the personal participation of Minister Abiyev that the Armenian-Azerbaijani military confrontation in Nagorno-Karabakh ended. The shrewd and extremely cautious military man did his best to restrain his subordinates, who were constantly trying to show a hot temper in an explosive region. But such a defense minister became extremely disadvantageous for Ankara, which was constantly trying to fan the embers of the former conflagration in the Caucasus. And in 2013, the Turks detonated an information bomb. What is noteworthy is that with the help of the radically “anti-Aliyev” Azerbaijani publication “Yeni Musavat”. They say that an assassination attempt was being prepared on the president and his son-in-law. At the same time, the journalists hinted very “thickly”: the conspiracy was organized by the military. Of course, no evidence was presented, as is usual in such cases. But even this slightest suspicion was enough for Ilham Aliyev to remove the faithful Abiyev from the leadership of the ministry.

Throughout his career, Abiyev fought against the Musavatists in the army - against the “Azerbaijani Turks,” as, deliberately confusing the uninitiated, they call themselves in their publications, such as “Yeni Musavat.” For almost two decades, the Musavatists have been hammering the minister for “harassment and pressure on Azeri Turks in the army,” and now – what luck! – the then Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, an ethnic Crimean Tatar, Ahmet Davutoglu, came to the rescue. It is unknown what he “poured into the ears” of Ilham Aliyev, but Abiyev was replaced in the ministerial post by the very person Ankara nominated – General Zakir Hasanov. Ethnic Azeri Turk. And a fierce hater of Armenians - unlike his predecessor Abiev.

REFERENCE

Washington traditionally remains neutral in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Meanwhile seven American states– Hawaii, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Maine, Louisiana, Georgia and California officially recognize the independence of Artsakh. It is believed that behind these local recognitions there is a very, very wealthy Armenian diaspora of 2 million.

But London is clearly on the side of Azerbaijan.

And the positions of others European countries on the Karabakh issue differ significantly. “For Baku” – Germany and “new Europe” (Poland, the Baltic countries and Romania). “For Stepanakert” – France and Italy.

Ankara and London are provoking the situation in Karabakh, not Baku

Of course, Hasanov’s nomination immediately provoked new clashes in Artsakh-Nagorno-Karabakh. Since the year before last, the situation in the region has deteriorated several times - and each time the Russian president had to resolve it. And it’s an amazing thing! – it was Defense Minister Hasanov who provoked the shooting with his orders, taking advantage of the head of state’s absences from Baku. But if only the activity of the Minister of War was limited to provocations on the borders of Artsakh! Last December, Hasanov, after several bilateral and trilateral meetings in Istanbul between the defense ministers of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia, initiated the signing of a defense pact with Ankara and Tbilisi. Ministers Ismet Yilmaz and Tina Khidasheli agreed that in the event of another escalation on the borders with the Armenian enclave, they undertake to enter into the conflict on the side of the Azerbaijanis. And the document was signed - despite the fact that the North Atlantic Alliance did not stand behind Georgia and Azerbaijan, as in the case of Turkey. Neither Khidasheli nor, of course, Hasanov were embarrassed by this circumstance. Probably, they really counted on the fact that, if something happened, not only Turkey, but the entire NATO bloc was ready to “sign up” for them.

And this calculation, apparently, was not based on speculation and fantasy alone. There were also more compelling reasons to rely on NATO. London guaranteed political support for the Ankara-Baku-Tbilisi military axis. This is confirmed by the January speech of British parliamentarian Robert Walter at the PACE session. There had not yet been any escalation of the conflict in Artsakh, but Walter apparently already knew something like that for sure, proposing that parliamentarians adopt a resolution on the “escalation of violence” in the region. It has always been this way: the British invariably ordered the Turks to set fire to the Caucasus, and they themselves invariably stood behind them. Let us remember Imam Shamil - the Ottomans incited the mountaineers, but the ideologists of what was happening were the politicians of Albion. So, nothing has changed today. That is why Robert Walter from the PACE rostrum demanded “the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Nagorno-Karabakh” and “the establishment of complete control of Azerbaijan in these territories.”

On this topic

Recently, economists High school economies compared salaries in dollars in Russia, the CIS countries and Eastern Europe using purchasing power parity (PPP) - this indicator equalizes the purchasing powers of currencies of different countries. The study's authors used World Bank data on 2011 PPP, data on exchange rates and inflation rates in the countries under consideration in subsequent years.

It is unlikely that the reason for Turkey’s intensified actions can be explained solely by the desire to symmetrically respond to Moscow for the actual recognition of Kurdistan. The explanation is most likely different: Ankara is preparing a “color revolution” for President Ilham Aliyev - at the hands of the Azerbaijani military.

In February-March, Turkish military specialists began frequenting trips from Ankara to Baku. Compared to the Armenians, the Azerbaijanis are unimportant fighters. They would not risk attacking themselves. What is noteworthy is that the former Minister of Defense of Azerbaijan and head General Staff unanimously testified: the army in its current form is not able to return Artsakh. Well, with the promised help from the Turks, why not try your luck? Fortunately, the minister is already different. By the way, a most interesting touch: as soon as the conflict in Karabakh escalated, a considerable detachment moved to the aid of the Azerbaijanis Crimean Tatars from the Kherson region of Ukraine. Either 300 bayonets, or more. Of course, this could not have happened without Ankara. It is noteworthy that both Yerevan and Stepanakert were informed in advance about the possible provocation. And it is no coincidence that Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, at a meeting with the ambassadors of the OSCE member countries, emphasized that it was not Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev who provoked the bloodshed. The bloody provocation was prepared by the leadership of Turkey and carried out by the Minister of Defense of Azerbaijan in the absence of the country's president.

Anatoly NESMIYAN, orientalist:

– Militarily, Baku has no chance of returning Karabakh. But Azerbaijani generals have the opportunity to move forward locally in a short period of time - in the hope that external players will stop the war at the moment when Azerbaijan can no longer advance further. The maximum that the Azerbaijanis can achieve with this is to establish control over a couple of villages. And this will be presented as a victory. Baku is not able to return all of Karabakh in its entirety. It is not possible to cope even with the army of Karabakh, and yet there is also the army of Armenia. But Baku is not afraid to lose, knowing full well that it simply will not be allowed to lose - the same Moscow, which will immediately intervene. In my opinion, the current aggravation of the situation is caused by the fact that the West and Turkey have finally decided on future fate Ilham Aliyev - they are preparing a “Baku revolution” for him with original script. This “revolution” will have four stages: the conflict in Karabakh, the defeat of Azerbaijan, recognition of Artsakh by Washington (seven states have already been decided) and a coup in Baku. The first step has already been completed, the second is almost completed. Half the journey has been completed in just a few days. Aliyev should have been more careful.

How will Moscow respond to Ankara’s provocations?

What are you waiting for? Some military experts, such as Franz Klintsevich, believe that the escalation in Artsakh will develop further. Moreover, the situation, in his words, is this: Armenia, they say, is part of the CSTO, but Azerbaijan is not, and this means that Russia will inevitably have to take the Armenian side in the conflict. In reality, it's not that simple. Armenia – like Russia – is not a party to the Karabakh conflict. Its sides are Azerbaijan and the Republic of Artsakh, although not recognized even by Yerevan, but a completely independent state the size of half of Armenia. Artsakh is not represented in the CSTO. So one should hardly make hasty conclusions that, if the conflict escalates, Russia will have to send troops into the unrecognized republic. You won't have to.

And one more important point. There is a myth that if Nagorno-Karabakh is “pushed” back into Azerbaijan, the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict will inevitably be settled. Alas, this is not true. Take a look at the map. Azerbaijan has an exclave in the south - Nakhichevan Autonomy. It is shared with Azerbaijan not only by Artsakh, the emergence of which after the collapse of the USSR, they say, is the whole essence of the conflict. Between Nakhichevan and the rest of the country there is a large piece of Armenia. Should it also be given to Baku - for the final settlement of the peace process, because, as follows from the Azerbaijani agenda, the conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis will be settled only if Azerbaijan is finally completely reunited? Thus, today there is no geopolitical solution that could bring the conflict to naught.

However, it should be recognized that neither the President of Armenia, nor his Azerbaijani counterpart, nor the leadership of Artsakh are ready to unleash big war in the Caucasus. Only the Turkish lobby in Baku, headed by Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov, is ready to shed blood. By the way, Turkey, which through Prime Minister Davutoglu promised to certainly come to the rescue if the situation on the borders worsened, somehow never showed up on the battlefield, leaving the Azerbaijanis to die there alone.

In general, Moscow, as always, will have to resolve the situation. Using not weapons at all, but diplomacy alone. Even more rudely - using the hundredfold criticized, but perfectly working “telephone right”. President Putin, as always in such cases, will call the heads of Armenia and Azerbaijan, and then the Armenian leader will call his counterpart from Artsakh. And the firing will subside, even if a short time. And the fact is that Russian President will find the right words to reason with his Azerbaijani colleague Ilham Aliyev, there is no doubt. It will be much more interesting to observe how the Russian leadership will “thank” the Turks. You can dream up a lot here. And about the beginning of the supply of humanitarian supplies to the areas of Syria bordering Turkey. The experience of Donbass suggests that the bodies Russian trucks with humanitarian aid is much more voluminous than is commonly thought. There will be a place there for all sorts of things that the Kurds cannot do without. Today Ankara is unsuccessfully trying to pacify the Kurdish cities on its territory - tanks and attack aircraft are being used. Against practically unarmed Kurds! And if the Kurds are lucky enough to find some useful tool among the cans of stew and medicine - purely by chance, of course? Will Erdogan cope? Very, very doubtful. Turkey will not get away with tomatoes now, Putin correctly warned them. And England will not help them - however, this has always been the case.

It happens that Artsakh politicians continue their careers in the “metropolis,” so to speak. For example, the first president of Nagorno-Karabakh, Robert Kocharyan, became the second president of Armenia. But often outright political adventurers are brought into the echelons of power in Stepanakert - to the complete misunderstanding of official Yerevan. Thus, in 1999, the government of Artsakh was headed by the odious Anushavan Danielyan, a politician who had fled Crimea the day before and was convicted of collaborating with an organized crime group. criminal group"Salem." In Stepanakert, he surfaced together with his Simferopol accomplice Vladimir Shevyev (Gasparyan), and this couple ruled the economy of the unrecognized republic for eight years. Moreover, the then President of Artsakh Arkady Ghukasyan was informed in detail about the criminal background of Danielyan’s activities with Shevyev in Crimea. Thus, some of the statements of official Baku that crime bosses are in charge of Stepanakert actually have certain grounds.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a region in Transcaucasia, in the eastern part of the Armenian Highlands. Eighty percent of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh are Armenians.

The armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh flared up in the early 90s of the last century. Active fighting 1991-1994 led to numerous casualties and destruction, about 1 million inhabitants became refugees.

1987 – 1988

In the region, dissatisfaction of the Armenian population with its socio-economic situation has increased. In October, a protest demonstration took place in Yerevan against incidents with the Armenian population of the village of Chardakhlu. On December 1, several dozen protesting residents were beaten and detained by the police, in connection with which the victims contacted General Prosecutor's Office THE USSR.

During the same period, a massive collection of signatures was carried out in Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia demanding the transfer of Nagorno-Karabakh to the Armenian SSR.
The delegation of Karabakh Armenians submitted signatures, letters and demands to the reception of the CPSU Central Committee in Moscow.

February 13, 1988

The first protest demonstration on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue took place in Stepanakert. Its participants demand the annexation of Nagorno-Karabakh to the Armenian SSR.

February 20, 1988

An extraordinary session of people's deputies of the NKAO, at the request of the Armenian deputies, addressed the Supreme Soviets of the Armenian SSR, the Azerbaijan SSR and the USSR with a request to consider and positively resolve the issue of transferring the NKAO from Azerbaijan to Armenia. Azerbaijani deputies refused to participate in the vote.

February 22, 1988

A clash occurred near the Armenian village of Askeran on the territory of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Okrug with the use of firearms between the Azerbaijanis, the police and military cordons placed on their way, and the local population.

February 22-23, 1988

The first rallies were held in Baku and other cities of the Azerbaijan SSR in support of the decision of the Politburo of the CPSU Central Committee on the inadmissibility of revising the existing national-territorial structure. In Armenia, meanwhile, a movement to support the Armenian population of NKAO grew.

February 26, 1988

A mass rally took place in Yerevan in support of the transfer of Nagorno-Karabakh to the Armenian SSR.

February 27-29, 1988

Pogroms in Sumgait, accompanied by mass violence against the Armenian population, robberies, murders, arson and destruction of property.

June 15, 1988

June 17, 1988

The Supreme Council of the Azerbaijan SSR stated that the solution to this issue could not fall within the competence of the Armenian SSR and considered the transfer of NKAO from the AzSSR to the Armenian SSR impossible.

June 21, 1988

At the session of the regional council of the NKAO, the issue of secession from the Azerbaijan SSR was again raised.

July 18, 1988

The Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR decides that Karabakh remains part of Azerbaijan.

September 21, 1988

Moscow announces the introduction of martial law in the NKAO.

August 1989

Azerbaijan begins an economic blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh. Tens of thousands of people are leaving their homes.

January 13-20, 1990

Armenian pogroms in Baku.

April 1991

Divisions Soviet troops and riot police launched “Operation Ring,” officially aimed at disarming militants in the Armenian village of Chaykend (Getashen).

December 19, 1991

January 26, 1992

The first serious defeat of the Azerbaijani army.
Dozens of soldiers are killed during an attack on the village of Dashalty (Karintak).

February 25-26, 1992

Hundreds of Azerbaijanis were killed as a result of the Armenian assault on Khojaly.

June 12, 1992

Advance of Azerbaijani troops. The Shaumyanovsky district was taken under the control of the military.

May 1994

On May 5, 1994, in the capital of Kyrgyzstan, through the mediation of Russia and the CIS Interparliamentary Assembly, a
ceasefire agreement since May 12, 1994 in the region of the Karabakh conflict. Moreover, the ceasefire regime is observed without interference
peacekeepers and participation of third countries.

Sources:

• Human Rights Watch
• Reuters
• Web site of Nagorno Karabakh Republic office in Washington Sumgait.info
• Chronology of the conflict prepared in August of 1990 by CIA
• Chronology prepared by the “Memorial” Society (Russia)