Sun. Due to the uneven heating of the earth's surface, winds and ocean currents arise. Increased solar activity is accompanied by magnetic storms and a noticeable increase in air temperature on the planet. Climate also depends on changes occurring in the Earth's orbit and its magnetic field. The seismic activity of the planet is increasing, volcanic activity is intensifying, and the outlines of continents and oceans are changing. All of the above are natural causes of climate change. Until some time, only these factors were decisive. This also includes long-term cycles such as ice ages. Focusing on solar and volcanic activity, given that the former leads to an increase in temperature and the latter to a decrease, one can find an explanation for half of the temperature shifts before 1950. But over the past two centuries, another factor has been added to the natural causes of the changes taking place. It is anthropogenic, i.e. resulting from human activity. Its main impact is the progressive greenhouse effect. Its influence is estimated to be 8 times stronger than the influence of solar activity fluctuations. This is exactly what scientists, the public and heads of state are so concerned about. The greenhouse effect is easy to observe in greenhouses or greenhouses. The inside of these rooms is much warmer and more humid than the outside. The same thing happens on a planetary scale. Solar energy passes through the atmosphere and heats the Earth's surface. But the thermal energy that the planet emits cannot penetrate into the planet in a timely manner, because the atmosphere traps it, like polyethylene in a greenhouse. This is where the greenhouse effect occurs. The reason for this phenomenon is the presence of gases in the atmosphere of the planet, which are called “greenhouse” or “greenhouse”. Greenhouse gases have been present in the atmosphere since its formation. They amounted to only about 0.1%. This turned out to be sufficient for a natural greenhouse effect to arise, affecting the Earth's heat balance and providing a level suitable for . If it were not for him, the average temperature of the Earth's surface would be 30°C lower, i.e. not +14°C, as at the moment, but -17°C. The natural greenhouse effect and the water cycle in nature support life on the planet. The anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to an intensification of this phenomenon and an imbalance in the heat balance on Earth. This has happened over the last two hundred years of the development of civilization and is happening now. The industry it created, car exhaust and much more emit a huge amount of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, more precisely about 22 billion tons per year. In this regard, global warming occurs, which causes a change in the average annual air temperature. Over the past hundred years, the average temperature of the Earth has increased by 1°C. It doesn't seem like much. But this degree turned out to be quite sufficient for the melting of polar ice and a significant rise in the level of the world's oceans, which, naturally, leads to certain consequences. There are processes that can be easily started, but subsequently difficult to stop. For example, the melting of subarctic permafrost resulted in the release of huge amounts of methane into the planet’s atmosphere. The greenhouse effect is increasing. And fresh water from melting ice changes the warm Gulf Stream, which in turn will change the climate of Europe. It is clear that all these processes cannot be local in nature. This will affect all of humanity. The moment has come to understand that the planet is Living being. It breathes and develops, radiates and interacts with other elements of the Universe. You cannot deplete its depths and pollute the ocean, you cannot cut down virgin forests and divide the indivisible for the sake of dubious pleasure!

The geological age of our planet is approximately 4.5 billion years. During this period, the Earth changed dramatically. The composition of the atmosphere, the mass of the planet itself, the climate - at the beginning of its existence everything was completely different. The hot ball very slowly became the way we are used to seeing it now. Tectonic plates collided, forming ever new mountain systems. Seas and oceans formed on the gradually cooling planet. Continents appeared and disappeared, their outlines and sizes changed. The earth began to rotate more slowly. The first plants appeared, and then life itself. Accordingly, over the past billions of years, the planet has undergone dramatic changes in moisture circulation, heat circulation and atmospheric composition. Climate changes have occurred throughout the existence of the Earth.

Holocene Epoch

The Holocene is part of the Quaternary period. In other words, this is an era that began approximately 12 thousand years ago and continues to the present day. The Holocene began with the end of the Ice Age, and since then climate change on the planet has been moving towards global warming. This era is often called interglacial, since there have already been several ice ages throughout the entire climatic history of the planet.

The last global cooling occurred approximately 110 thousand years ago. About 14 thousand years ago, warming began, gradually sweeping the entire planet. The glaciers that covered most of the Northern Hemisphere at that time began to melt and collapse. Naturally, all this did not happen overnight. For a very long period, the planet was shaken by strong temperature fluctuations, glaciers either advanced or retreated again. All this influenced the level of the World Ocean.

Holocene periods

During numerous studies, scientists decided to divide the Holocene into several time periods depending on climate. Approximately 12-10 thousand years ago, the ice sheets disappeared, and the post-glacial period began. In Europe, the tundra began to disappear, replaced by birch, pine and taiga forests. This time is usually called the Arctic and subarctic period.

Then came the Boreal Epoch. The taiga pushed the tundra further and further north. IN Southern Europe broad-leaved forests appeared. At this time the climate was predominantly cool and dry.

Approximately 6 thousand years ago, the Atlantic era began, during which the air became warm and humid, much warmer than today. This period of time is considered the climatic optimum of the entire Holocene. Half was covered with birch forests. Europe abounded in a wide variety of heat-loving plants. At the same time, the extent of temperate forests was much further to the north. Dark coniferous forests grew on the shores of the Barents Sea, and the taiga reached Cape Chelyuskin. On the site of the modern Sahara there was a savannah, and the water level in Lake Chad was 40 meters higher than the modern one.

Then climate change happened again. A cold snap occurred that lasted approximately 2 thousand years. This time period is called the subboreal. Mountain ranges in Alaska, Iceland, and the Alps acquired glaciers. Landscape zones have shifted closer to the equator.

Approximately 2.5 thousand years ago, the last period of the modern Holocene began - the Sub-Atlantic. The climate of this era became cooler and wetter. Peat swamps began to appear, the tundra gradually began to encroach on the forests, and the forests on the steppe. Around the 14th century, a cooling of the climate began, leading to the Little Ice Age, which lasted until the mid-19th century. At this time, glacier invasions were recorded in the mountain ranges of Northern Europe, Iceland, Alaska and the Andes. In different parts of the globe, the climate did not change synchronously. The reasons for the onset of the Little Ice Age still remain unknown. According to scientists, the climate could change due to an increase in volcanic eruptions and a decrease in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Beginning of meteorological observations

The first appeared at the end of the 18th century. Since then, constant observations of climate fluctuations have been carried out. It can be reliably stated that the warming that began after the Little Ice Age continues to this day.

Since the end of the 19th century, an increase in the average global temperature of the planet has been recorded. In the middle of the 20th century there was a slight cooling, which did not affect the climate as a whole. Since the mid-70s it has become warmer again. According to scientists, over the last century the global temperature of the Earth has increased by 0.74 degrees. The greatest increase in this indicator has been recorded in the last 30 years.

Climate change invariably affects the state of the world's oceans. Rising global temperatures lead to the expansion of water, which means rising water levels. There are also changes in the distribution of precipitation, which, in turn, can affect the flow of rivers and glaciers.

According to observational data, the level of the World Ocean over the past 100 years has increased by 5 cm. Scientists associate climate warming with an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide and a significant increase in the greenhouse effect.

Climate-forming factors

Scientists have conducted many archaeological studies and come to the conclusion that the planet’s climate has changed dramatically more than once. Many hypotheses have been put forward in this regard. According to one opinion, if the distance between the Earth and the Sun remains the same, as well as the planet's rotation speed and axis tilt, then the climate will remain stable.

External factors of climate change:

1. A change in solar radiation leads to a transformation of solar radiation fluxes.
2. Movements of tectonic plates influence the orography of land as well as ocean levels and circulation.
3. The gas composition of the atmosphere, in particular the concentration of methane and carbon dioxide.
4. Changing the tilt of the Earth's rotation axis.
5. Changes in the parameters of the planet's orbit relative to the Sun.
6. Earth and space disasters.

Human activity and its impact on climate

The causes of climate change are also related to the fact that humanity has interfered with nature throughout its existence. Deforestation, plowing, etc. lead to transformations in humidity and wind regimes.

When people make changes to the surrounding nature, draining swamps, creating artificial reservoirs, cutting down forests or planting new ones, building cities, etc., the microclimate changes. The forest greatly influences the wind regime, which determines how the snow cover will fall and how much the soil will freeze.

Green spaces in cities reduce the influence of solar radiation, increase air humidity, reduce the difference in temperatures during the day and evening time, reduce air dust.

If people cut down forests at higher elevations, this later leads to soil loss. Fewer trees also reduce global temperatures. However, this means an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air, which is not only not absorbed by the trees, but is also additionally released during the decomposition of wood. All this compensates for the decrease in global temperature and leads to its increase.

Industry and its impact on climate

The causes of climate change lie not only in general warming, but also in human activities. People have increased the concentration in the air of substances such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, and chlorofluorocarbons. All this ultimately leads to an increase in the greenhouse effect, and the consequences may be irreversible.

Every day, industrial enterprises emit many dangerous gases into the air. Transport is used everywhere, polluting the atmosphere with its emissions. A lot of carbon dioxide is produced by burning oil and coal. Even agriculture causes considerable damage to the atmosphere. Approximately 14% of all emissions come from this area. This includes plowing fields, burning waste, burning savannah, manure, fertilizers, animal husbandry, etc. The greenhouse effect helps maintain temperature balance on the planet, but human activity enhances this effect significantly. And this could lead to disaster.

Why should we be concerned about climate change?

97% of the world's climate scientists are confident that everything has changed dramatically in the last 100 years. AND the main problem Climate change is a man-made activity. There is no way to say for certain how serious this situation is, but there are many reasons for concern:

UN Convention

The governments of most countries on the planet are seriously afraid of what the consequences of climate change may be. More than 20 years ago, an international treaty was created - the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All possible measures to prevent global warming are discussed here. The convention has now been ratified by 186 countries, including Russia. All participants are differentiated into 3 groups: industrial with economic development and developing countries.

The UN Climate Change Convention is fighting to reduce the growth of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and further stabilize levels. This can be achieved either by increasing the flow of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere or by reducing their emissions. For the first option you need a large number of young forests that will absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and the second option will be achieved by reducing the consumption of fossil fuels. All ratified countries agree that the world is experiencing global climate change. The UN is ready to do everything possible to mitigate the impact of the impending strike.

Many countries participating in the convention have concluded that joint projects and programs will be most effective. There are currently more than 150 such projects. Officially, there are 9 similar programs in Russia, and unofficially there are more than 40.

At the end of 1997, the Climate Change Convention signed the Kyoto Protocol, which stipulated that countries with economies in transition undertake obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The protocol has been ratified by 35 countries.

Our country also took part in the implementation of this protocol. Climate change in Russia has led to the fact that the number natural Disasters has doubled. Even if we take into account that boreal forests are located on the territory of the state forested areas, they do not cope with all greenhouse gas emissions. Forest ecosystems should be improved and expanded, and large-scale measures should be taken to reduce emissions from industrial enterprises.

Projections of the consequences of global warming

The essence of climate change in the last century is global warming. According to the worst forecasts, further irrational human activity could increase the Earth's temperature by 11 degrees. Climate change will be irreversible. The rotation of the planet will slow down, many species of animals and plants will die. The level of the World Ocean will rise so much that many islands and most of the coastal areas will be flooded. The Gulf Stream will change its course, leading to a new Little Ice Age in Europe. Widespread cataclysms, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, droughts, tsunamis, etc. will occur. The ice of the Arctic and Antarctica will begin to melt.

The consequences for humanity will be catastrophic. In addition to the need to survive in conditions of strong natural anomalies, people will have many other problems. In particular, the number will increase cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, psychological disorders, outbreaks of epidemics will begin. There will be an acute shortage of food and drinking water.

What to do?

To avoid the consequences of climate change, we first need to reduce the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Humanity should switch to new energy sources, which should be low-carbohydrate and renewable. Sooner or later, this issue will be acutely faced by the world community, since the resource currently used - mineral fuel - is non-renewable. Someday scientists will have to create new, more efficient technologies.

It is also necessary to reduce the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and only restoration of forest areas can help with this.

It is necessary to apply maximum efforts to stabilize the global temperature on Earth. But even if this fails, humanity must try to achieve minimal consequences of global warming.

IN modern world Humanity is increasingly concerned about the issue of global climate change on Earth. In the last quarter of the twentieth century, sharp warming began to be observed. The number of winters with very low temperatures has decreased significantly, and the average surface air temperature has increased by 0.7 °C. The climate has changed naturally over millions of years. Now these processes are happening much faster. It is worth considering that global climate change can lead to dangerous consequences for all humanity. We will talk further about what factors provoke climate change and what the consequences may be.

Earth's climate

The climate on Earth was not constant. It has changed over the years. Changes in dynamic processes on Earth, the influence of external influences and solar radiation on the planet have led to climate changes.

We have known since school that the climate on our planet is divided into several types. Namely, there are four climate zones:

• Equatorial.
• Tropical.
• Moderate.
• Polar.

Each type is characterized by certain value parameters:

• Temperatures.
• Amount of precipitation in winter and summer.

It is also known that climate significantly affects the life of plants and animals, as well as the soil, water regime. It is the climate that prevails in a given region that determines what crops can be grown in the fields and on farmsteads. The settlement of people, the development of agriculture, the health and life of the population, as well as the development of industry and energy are inextricably linked.

Any climate change significantly affects our lives. Let's look at how climate can change.

Manifestations of a changing climate

Global climate change is manifested in deviations of weather indicators from long-term values ​​over a long period of time. This includes not only changes in temperatures, but also the frequency of weather events that go beyond normal and are considered extreme.

There are processes on Earth that directly provoke all kinds of changes climatic conditions, and also indicate to us that global climate change is taking place.

It is worth noting that climate change on the planet is currently occurring very quickly. Thus, the planetary temperature has increased by half a degree in just about half a century.

What factors influence climate

Based on the processes listed above, which indicate climate change, we can identify several factors influencing these processes:

• Changing orbit and changing the Earth's tilt.
• Decrease or increase in the amount of heat in the depths of the ocean.
• Change in solar radiation intensity.
• Changes in relief and location of continents and oceans, as well as changes in their sizes.
• Changes in the composition of the atmosphere, a significant increase in the amount of greenhouse gases.
• Change in albedo of the earth's surface.

All these factors influence the planet's climate. Climate change occurs for a number of reasons, which can be natural and anthropogenic.

Reasons that provoke changes in climatic conditions

Let's consider what causes of climate change are considered by scientists around the world.

1. Radiation coming from the Sun. Scientists believe that the changing activity of the hottest star may be one of the main causes of climate change. The sun develops and from being young and cold it slowly moves into the stage of aging. Solar activity was one of the reasons for the onset of the Ice Age, as well as periods of warming.
2. Greenhouse gases. They provoke a rise in temperature in the lower layers of the atmosphere. The main greenhouse gases are:

3. Changing Earth's orbit leads to a change and redistribution of solar radiation on the surface. Our planet is influenced by the gravity of the moon and other planets.

4. Impact of volcanoes. It is as follows:

• Environmental impact of volcanic products.
• The impact of gases and ash on the atmosphere, and as a consequence on the climate.
• The influence of ash and gases on snow and ice on the peaks, which leads to mudflows, avalanches, and floods.

Passively degassing volcanoes have a global impact on the atmosphere, just like an active eruption. It can cause a global decrease in temperatures, and as a result, crop failure or drought.

Human activity is one of the causes of global climate change

Scientists have long found main reason climate warming. This is an increase in greenhouse gases that are released and accumulated in the atmosphere. As a result, the ability of land and ocean ecosystems to absorb carbon dioxide decreases as it increases in the atmosphere.

Human activities affecting global climate change:

Scientists, based on their research, have concluded that if natural causes influenced the climate, the temperature on earth would be lower. It is human influence that contributes to rising temperatures, which leads to global climate change.

Having considered the causes of climate change, let's move on to the consequences of such processes.

Are there positive sides global warming.

Looking for the positives in a changing climate

Given how much progress has been made, increasing temperatures can be used to increase yields cultivated plants. At the same time creating favorable conditions for them. But this will be possible only in temperate climate zones.

The advantages of the greenhouse effect include an increase in the productivity of natural forest biogeocenoses.

Global consequences of climate change

What will be the consequences on a global scale? Scientists believe that:

Earth's climate change will have an impact significant influence and on human health. The incidence of cardiovascular and other diseases may increase.

• A decrease in food production can lead to hunger, especially among the poor.
• The problem of global climate change will, of course, affect political question. Conflicts over the right to own fresh water sources may intensify.

We can already see some of the effects of climate change. How will the climate on our planet continue to change?

Forecasts for the development of global climate change

Experts believe that there may be several scenarios for the development of global changes.

1. Global changes, namely, the increase in temperature will not be sharp. The Earth has a moving atmosphere; thermal energy is distributed throughout the planet due to the movement of air masses. The world's oceans accumulate more heat than the atmosphere. On such a big planet with its complex system change cannot happen too quickly. Significant changes will take millennia.
2. Rapid global warming. This scenario is considered much more often. Temperatures have increased by half a degree over the last century, the amount of carbon dioxide has increased by 20%, and methane by 100%. The melting of the Arctic and Antarctic ice. The water level in the oceans and seas will become significantly higher. The number of disasters on the planet will increase. The amount of precipitation on Earth will be distributed unevenly, which will increase the areas suffering from drought.
3. In some parts of the Earth, warming will be replaced by short-term cooling. Scientists calculated this scenario based on the fact that the warm Gulf Stream has become 30% slower and can completely stop if the temperature rises a couple of degrees. This may be reflected in severe cooling in Northern Europe, as well as in the Netherlands, Belgium, Scandinavia and in the northern regions of the European part of Russia. But this is only possible for a short period of time, and then warming will return to Europe. And everything will develop according to scenario 2.
4. Global warming will be replaced by global cooling. This is possible when not only the Gulf Stream stops, but also other ocean currents. This is fraught with the onset of a new ice age.
5. The worst scenario is a greenhouse disaster. An increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will contribute to an increase in temperature. This will lead to the fact that carbon dioxide from the world's oceans will begin to move into the atmosphere. Carbonate sedimentary rocks will decompose with an even greater release of carbon dioxide, which will lead to an even greater increase in temperature and decomposition of carbonate rocks in deeper layers. Glaciers will melt quickly, reducing the Earth's albedo. The amount of methane will increase and the temperature will rise, which will lead to disaster. An increase in temperature on earth by 50 degrees will lead to the death of human civilization, and by 150 degrees it will cause the death of all living organisms.

Global climate change on Earth, as we see, can pose a danger to all humanity. Therefore, it is necessary to pay great attention to this issue. It is necessary to study how we can reduce human influence on these global processes.

Climate change in Russia

Global climate change in Russia will not fail to affect all regions of the country. It will reflect both positively and negatively. The residential area will move closer to the north. Heating costs will be significantly reduced, and cargo transportation along the Arctic coast on large rivers will be simplified. In northern regions, melting snow in areas where there was permafrost can lead to serious damage to communications and buildings. Population migration will begin. Already in last years The number of phenomena such as drought, storm winds, heat, floods, and extreme cold has increased significantly. Say specifically how warming will affect different industries, no possibility. The essence of climate change must be studied comprehensively. It is important to reduce the impact of human activities on our planet. More on this later.

How to avoid disaster?

As we saw earlier, the consequences of global climate change can be simply catastrophic. Humanity should already understand that we are able to stop the approaching catastrophe. What needs to be done to save our planet:

Global climate change must not be allowed to get out of control.

The large world community at the UN conference on climate change adopted the UN Framework Convention (1992) and the Kyoto Protocol (1999). What a pity that some countries put their well-being above solving global climate change issues.

The international scientific community has a huge responsibility to determine the trends of climate change in the future and the development of the main directions of the consequences of this change will save humanity from catastrophic consequences. And taking costly measures without scientific justification will lead to huge economic losses. The problems of climate change concern all of humanity, and they must be solved together.

Scientists around the world have reached a consensus: last decades Due to the influence of people, the climate is changing faster. This position is held by the authors of over 97% of publications in peer-reviewed scientific journals. It is also shared by the Russian Hydrometeorological Service.

In "Climate Doctrine" Russian Federation"(approved by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated December 17, 2009 No. 861-rp) it is said that human economic activity, primarily associated with greenhouse gas emissions as a result of the combustion of fossil fuels, has a significant impact on the climate.

How does humanity influence climate change?

The climate is changing because over the past century and a half there have been significantly more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which trap heat near the Earth's surface (like a blanket) and warm the planet.

There are several main reasons why greenhouse gases are increasing:

• combustion of fossil fuels (oil, coal and gas) in power plants and internal combustion engines;
• reduction of forest area (including due to fires);
• decomposition of organic waste in landfills;
• agriculture (especially livestock farming).

From 1999 to 2017, the number of hazardous weather events in Russia increased by more than three and a half times.

Roshydromet

And what's wrong with that?

Climate change is destroying the favorable conditions in which our civilization developed. Everything on which our lives depend is under threat: weather, agriculture, biodiversity, infrastructure. Some parts of the world experience hurricanes and floods much more often, while others experience droughts. Due to rising sea levels, entire cities and countries may go under water, and other territories will become uninhabitable due to the heat. Due to food problems and drinking water the number of refugees and armed conflicts may increase.

Russia may be hit harder by climate change than other countries. In our country, the average annual temperature is growing two and a half times faster than the world average. This is not enough to grow bananas, but it was enough for the number of dangerous weather events to increase more than three and a half times from 1999 to 2017 (according to Roshydromet). More than 60% Russian territory located in the permafrost zone. Due to climate change, permafrost is melting, causing buildings and strategic infrastructure in these areas to rapidly deteriorate. In addition, aridity is increasing in most of the agricultural zone of Russia. People's health is being harmed by more frequent heat waves and decreased air quality due to wildfires.

What to do?

Russia is the fourth country in the world in terms of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions Therefore, it is unlikely that it will be possible to solve the problem of climate change without us. To do this, our country must ratify the Paris Climate Agreement, implement a program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, abandon direct and hidden subsidies for fossil fuels, begin the transition to renewable energy and the introduction of energy-saving technologies, take adequate measures to preserve forests, and limit the use of disposable packaging and organize waste recycling.

Wind power park in the Philippines.

What is Greenpeace doing in Russia for this?

Greenpeace works to ensure that companies that extract oil in Russia comply with required environmental and social standards. Due to insufficiently strict legislation, oil companies often do not care about nature and people: for example, they save on replacing dilapidated oil pipelines, which is why thousands of oil spills occur in Russia every year, according to the oil companies themselves. If oil companies will be forced to meet high standards, the industry will become less attractive to investors. This is one of the necessary conditions for the development of “green” energy.

Two thirds of oil is burned in internal combustion engines. Transport is the source of 80–90% of air pollution in many major Russian cities. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect people from toxic air pollution, Greenpeace advocates for reduced travel by private vehicle. Cars should have more environmentally friendly alternatives: first of all, affordable and comfortable public transport. Thanks to good infrastructure, cycling can become a full-fledged mode of transport, as has already happened in Northern Europe.

To save Russian forests, Greenpeace protects their pristine areas and promotes effective forest management where the forest has already been developed. The main damage to forests in our country is caused by fires: 2–3 million hectares are burned annually, which is twice as much as all legal and illegal logging. Humans are the cause of 90% of fires in natural areas, so Greenpeace does a lot of work educational work. The easiest way to control a fire is at an early stage. With the support of Greenpeace, volunteer groups across the country, from Ladoga to Lake Baikal, are doing this.

Greenpeace stands for careful attitude to natural resources and their rational use. When making new things, most of the energy and resources are spent not on their production, but on the extraction and transportation of raw materials. That's why Greenpeace promotes separate collection and making things from recycled waste. But in order to save the planet from climate change, it is not enough to recycle: we need to reduce consumption and abandon disposable items. For example, they should disappear from stores plastic bags, which are used for their intended purpose for only a few minutes, and then end up in landfills, and other disposable plastic packaging.

Unfortunately, this is not a solution...

Nuclear energy

Greenhouse gas emissions from nuclear power indeed less than from coal, but it will not be possible to save the planet from climate change. Even if the power of reactors around the world quadrupled, this would reduce carbon dioxide emissions by only 6%. But the construction of so many nuclear power plants will take many years and will require very high costs. These funds can be much more effectively invested in the development of renewable energy, which is growing much faster and does not carry the dangers associated with nuclear power plants (this is not only the risk of accidents, but also problems with storing radioactive waste).

Gas

Gas is a type of fossil fuel whose combustion also causes climate change. Specific greenhouse gas emissions from its combustion are approximately two times lower than from coal. But at the same time, there is a problem of leaks during gas production and transportation: methane enters the atmosphere, which affects the climate tens of times more strongly than the same volume of carbon dioxide.

For now, gas is seen as a “transition fuel” on the way to an energy sector based entirely on renewable energy sources. However, major investments in gas infrastructure today could leave us hostage to burning fossil fuels for decades to come. With renewable energy becoming cheaper every year, we can move to a better future immediately without making the wrong decisions.

Introduction

1. Causes of climate change

2. The concept and essence of the greenhouse effect

3. Global warming and human impact on it

4. Consequences of global warming

5. Measures necessary to prevent global warming

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

The world is getting warmer, and humanity is largely responsible for it, experts say. But many factors influencing climate change have not yet been studied, and others have not been studied at all.

Some dry places in Africa have become drier over the past 25 years. The rare lakes that bring water to people are drying up. Sandy winds are intensifying. The rains stopped there in the 1970s. The problem of drinking water is becoming more and more acute. According to computer models, such areas will continue to dry out and become completely uninhabitable.

Coal mining is widespread throughout the planet. Huge amounts of carbon dioxide (CO 2) are released into the atmosphere when coal is burned. As developing countries follow in the footsteps of their industrial neighbors, the volume of CO 2 will double during the 21st century.

Most experts, studying the complexity of the Earth's climate system, associate the increase in global temperature and future climate changes with an increase in the level of CO 2 in the atmospheric air.

Life has flourished on the planet for about four billion years. During this time, climate fluctuations were radical, from the Ice Age - which lasted 10,000 years - to an era of rapid warming. With each change, an indefinite number of species of life forms changed, evolved and survived. Others weakened or simply died out.

Now many experts believe that humanity is endangering the global ecological system due to global warming caused by the so-called greenhouse effect. The evaporation of civilization's products in the form of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) trapped enough heat reflected from the Earth's surface to cause the average temperature at the Earth's surface to rise by half a degree Celsius during the 20th century. If this direction of modern industry continues, the climate system will change everywhere - melting ice, rising sea levels, destruction of plants by droughts, turning areas into deserts, moving green areas.

But this may not be the case. The planet's climate depends on a combination of many factors, interacting individually with each other and in complex ways that are not yet fully understood. It is possible that the warming observed over the past century was due to natural fluctuations, although its rates were significantly higher than those observed during the last ten centuries. Moreover, computer simulations may not be accurate.

However, in 1995, after many years of intensive study international Conference on Climate Change, sponsored by the United Nations, tentatively concluded that "much evidence suggests that human impacts on the global climate are enormous." The extent of these influences, as experts note, is unknown, since a key factor has not been determined, including the degree to which clouds and oceans influence changes in global temperature. It may take a decade or more of additional research to rule out these uncertainties.

In the meantime, much is already known. And although the specific circumstances of human economic activity remain unclear, our ability to change the composition of the atmosphere is undeniable.

The purpose of this work is to study the problem of climate change on Earth.

Objectives of this work:

1. study the causes of climate change;

2. consider the concept and essence of the greenhouse effect;

3. define the concept of “global warming” and show the influence of humanity on it;

4. show the consequences awaiting humanity as a result of global warming; 5. consider the measures needed to prevent global warming.

1. CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

What is global climate change and why is it often called "global warming"?

One cannot but agree that the climate on Earth is changing and this is becoming a global problem for all humanity. The fact of global climate change is confirmed by scientific observations and is not disputed by most scientists. And yet there are constant discussions around this topic. Some use the term “global warming” and make apocalyptic predictions. Others predict the onset of a new “ice age” - and also make apocalyptic predictions. Still others consider climate change to be natural, and the evidence from both sides about the inevitability of the catastrophic consequences of climate change is controversial... Let's try to figure it out....

What evidence is there of climate change?

They are well known to everyone (this is noticeable even without instruments): an increase in average global temperatures (milder winters, hotter and drier summer months), melting glaciers and rising sea levels, as well as increasingly frequent and increasingly destructive typhoons and hurricanes, floods in Europe and droughts in Australia...(see also “5 climate prophecies that came true”). And in some places, for example, in Antarctica, cooling is observed.

If the climate has changed before, why is it a problem now?

Indeed, the climate of our planet is constantly changing. Everyone knows about ice ages (they are small and large), the global flood, etc. According to geological data, the average global temperature in different geological periods ranged from +7 to +27 degrees Celsius. Now the average temperature on Earth is approximately +14 o C and is still quite far from the maximum. So, what are scientists, heads of state and the public concerned about? In short, the concern is that in addition to the natural causes of climate change that have always existed, another factor is being added - anthropogenic (the result of human activity), the influence of which on climate change, according to a number of researchers, is becoming stronger every year.

What are the causes of climate change?

The main driving force of climate is the Sun. For example, uneven heating of the earth's surface (stronger near the equator) is one of the main causes of winds and ocean currents, and periods of increased solar activity are accompanied by warming and magnetic storms.

In addition, climate is affected by changes in the Earth's orbit, its magnetic field, the size of continents and oceans, and volcanic eruptions. All these are natural causes of climate change. Until recently, they, and only they, determined climate change, including the beginning and end of long-term climate cycles such as ice ages. Solar and volcanic activity can explain half of the temperature changes before 1950 (solar activity leads to higher temperatures, volcanic activity leads to lower temperatures).

IN Lately To the natural factors, another one was added - anthropogenic, i.e. caused by human activity. The main anthropogenic impact is the strengthening of the greenhouse effect, the influence of which on climate change in the last two centuries is 8 times higher than the influence of changes in solar activity.

2. CONCEPT AND ESSENCE OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT

The greenhouse effect is the delay of the planet's thermal radiation by the Earth's atmosphere. Any of us has observed the greenhouse effect: in greenhouses or greenhouses the temperature is always higher than outside. The same thing is observed on a global scale: solar energy, passing through the atmosphere, heats the surface of the Earth, but is emitted by the Earth thermal energy cannot escape back into space because the Earth's atmosphere traps it, acting like polyethylene in a greenhouse: it transmits short light waves from the Sun to the Earth and traps long thermal (or infrared) waves emitted by the Earth's surface. A greenhouse effect occurs. The greenhouse effect occurs due to the presence of gases in the Earth's atmosphere that have the ability to trap long waves. They are called “greenhouse” or “greenhouse” gases.

Greenhouse gases have been present in the atmosphere in small quantities (about 0.1%) since its formation. This amount was enough to maintain the Earth's thermal balance at a level suitable for life due to the greenhouse effect. This is the so-called natural greenhouse effect; if it weren’t for it, the average temperature of the Earth’s surface would be 30°C lower, i.e. not +14° C, as it is now, but -17° C.

The natural greenhouse effect does not threaten either the Earth or humanity, since the total amount of greenhouse gases was maintained at the same level due to the cycle of nature, moreover, we owe our lives to it.

But an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to an increase in the greenhouse effect and disruption heat balance Earth. This is exactly what happened in the last two centuries of civilization. Coal-fired power plants, car exhaust, factory chimneys and other human-made sources of pollution emit about 22 billion tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere each year.

What gases are called “greenhouse” gases?

The most well-known and widespread greenhouse gases include water vapor(H 2 O), carbon dioxide(CO2), methane(CH 4) and laughing gas or nitrous oxide (N 2 O). These are direct greenhouse gases. Most of them are formed during the combustion of organic fuel.

In addition, there are two more groups of direct greenhouse gases, these are halocarbons And sulfur hexafluoride(SF6). Their emissions into the atmosphere are associated with modern technologies and industrial processes (electronics and refrigeration). Their quantity in the atmosphere is absolutely negligible, but their influence on the greenhouse effect (the so-called global warming potential/GWP) is tens of thousands of times stronger than CO 2 .

Water vapor is the main greenhouse gas, responsible for more than 60% of the natural greenhouse effect. An anthropogenic increase in its concentration in the atmosphere has not yet been observed. However, an increase in the Earth's temperature, caused by other factors, increases the evaporation of ocean water, which can lead to an increase in the concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere and to an increase in the greenhouse effect. On the other hand, clouds in the atmosphere reflect direct sunlight, which reduces the energy input to the Earth and, accordingly, reduces the greenhouse effect.

Carbon dioxide is the best known of the greenhouse gases. Natural sources of CO 2 are volcanic emissions and the vital activity of organisms. Anthropogenic sources include the combustion of fossil fuels (including forest fires), as well as a number of industrial processes (for example, cement production, glass production). Carbon dioxide, according to most researchers, is primarily responsible for global warming caused by the greenhouse effect. CO 2 concentrations have increased by more than 30% over two centuries of industrialization and are correlated with changes in average global temperature.

Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. Released due to leakage during coal mining and natural gas, from pipelines, during biomass combustion, in landfills (as a component of biogas), as well as in agriculture (cattle breeding, rice farming), etc. Livestock farming, fertilizer use, coal combustion and other sources produce about 250 million tons of methane per year. The amount of methane in the atmosphere is small, but its greenhouse effect, or global warming potential (GWP), is 21 times greater than CO 2.

Nitrous oxide is the third most important greenhouse gas: its impact is 310 times stronger than CO 2, but it is found in very small quantities in the atmosphere. It enters the atmosphere as a result of the vital activity of plants and animals, as well as during the production and use of mineral fertilizers, and the operation of chemical industry enterprises.

Halocarbons (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) are gases created to replace ozone-depleting substances. Mainly used in refrigeration equipment. They have exceptionally high coefficients of influence on the greenhouse effect: 140-11,700 times higher than that of CO 2. Their emissions (release into the environment) are small, but are increasing rapidly.

Sulfur hexafluoride – its release into the atmosphere is associated with electronics and the production of insulating materials. While it is small, the volume is constantly increasing. The global warming potential is 23,900 units.

3. GLOBAL WARMING AND HUMAN IMPACT ON IT

Global warming is a gradual increase average temperature on our planet, caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere.

According to direct climate observations (temperature changes over the past two hundred years), average temperatures on Earth have increased, and although the reasons for this increase are still the subject of debate, one of the most widely discussed is the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. An anthropogenic increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere disrupts the natural thermal balance of the planet, enhances the greenhouse effect, and, as a result, causes global warming.

This is a slow and gradual process. Thus, over the past 100 years the average temperature The Earth increased by only 1 o C. It would seem not much. What, then, is alarming the world community and forcing the governments of many countries to take measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?

Firstly, this was enough to cause the melting of polar ice and a rise in sea levels with all the ensuing consequences.

And secondly, some processes are easier to start than to stop. For example, as a result of the melting of permafrost rocks in the subarctic, huge amounts of methane enter the atmosphere, which further enhances the greenhouse effect. And the desalination of the ocean due to melting ice will cause changes warm current Gulf Stream, which will affect the climate of Europe. Thus, global warming will trigger changes that will in turn accelerate climate change. We started a chain reaction...

How big is the human impact on global warming?

The idea of ​​humanity's significant contribution to the greenhouse effect (and therefore to global warming) is supported by most governments, scientists, public organizations and the media, but is not yet a definitively established truth.

Some argue that: the concentration of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere since the pre-industrial period (since 1750) has increased by 34% and 160%, respectively. Moreover, it has not reached this level for hundreds of thousands of years. This is clearly related to the increase in consumption of fuel resources and the development of industry. And it is confirmed by the coincidence of the graph of the increase in carbon dioxide concentration with the graph of the increase in temperature.

Others object: 50-60 times more carbon dioxide is dissolved in the surface layer of the World Ocean than in the atmosphere. Compared to this, the human impact is simply negligible. In addition, the ocean has the ability to absorb CO 2 and thereby compensate for human impacts.

However, recently more and more evidence has emerged in favor of the influence of human activities on global climate change. Here are just a few of them.

1. The southern part of the world's oceans has lost its ability to absorb significant quantities carbon dioxide, and this will further accelerate global warming on the planet

2. The flow of heat coming to the Earth from the Sun has been decreasing in the last five years, but the earth is experiencing not cooling, but warming...

How much will the temperature rise?

According to some climate change scenarios, by 2100 the average global temperature could rise by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius - unless steps are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, periods of hot weather may become longer and more extreme in temperature. However, the development of the situation will vary greatly depending on the region of the Earth, and these differences are extremely difficult to predict. For example, for Europe, a not very long period of cooling is predicted at first due to the slowdown and possible change in the Gulf Stream.

4. CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBAL WARMING

Global warming will greatly affect the lives of some animals. For example, polar bears, seals and penguins will be forced to change their habitats because polar ice will disappear. Many species of animals and plants will also disappear without having time to adapt to the rapidly changing environment. 250 million years ago, global warming killed three-quarters of all life on Earth

Global warming will change the climate on a global scale. An increase in the number of climate disasters, an increase in the number of floods due to hurricanes, desertification and a reduction in summer precipitation by 15-20% in major agricultural areas, increases in ocean levels and temperatures, borders are expected natural areas will move north.

Moreover, according to some forecasts, global warming will cause the onset of the Little Ice Age. In the 19th century, the cause of such cooling was volcanic eruptions, in our century the cause is already different - desalination of the world's oceans as a result of melting glaciers

How will global warming affect humans?

In the short term: a shortage of drinking water, an increase in the number of infectious diseases, problems in agriculture due to droughts, an increase in the number of deaths due to floods, hurricanes, heat and drought.

The biggest blow may fall on the poorest countries, which are least responsible for exacerbating the problem and least prepared for climate change. Warming and rising temperatures may ultimately reverse the gains of previous generations.

Destruction of established and customary agricultural systems under the influence of droughts, irregular rainfall, etc. could actually bring about 600 million people to the brink of famine. By 2080, 1.8 billion people will experience severe water shortages. And in Asia and China, due to melting glaciers and changes in precipitation patterns, an environmental crisis may occur.

An increase in temperature by 1.5-4.5°C will lead to a rise in sea level by 40-120 cm (according to some calculations, up to 5 meters). This means the inundation of many small islands and flooding in coastal areas. About 100 million people will be in flood-prone areas, more than 300 million people will be forced to migrate, and some states will disappear (for example, the Netherlands, Denmark, part of Germany).

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the health of hundreds of millions of people could be at risk as a result of the spread of malaria (due to an increase in the number of mosquitoes in flooded areas), intestinal infections (due to disruption of water supply systems), etc.

In the long term, this may lead to the next stage of human evolution. Our ancestors faced a similar problem when the temperature rose sharply by 10°C after the Ice Age, but this is what led to the creation of our civilization.

Experts do not have accurate data on what humanity’s contribution to the observed increase in temperatures on Earth is and what the chain reaction may be.

The exact relationship between rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising temperatures is also unknown. This is one reason temperature forecasts vary so widely. And this gives food to skeptics: some scientists consider the problem of global warming to be somewhat exaggerated, as are the data on the increase in average temperature on Earth.

Scientists do not have a consensus on what the final balance of positive and negative effects of climate change may be, and according to which scenario the situation will develop further.

Some scientists believe that several factors may reduce the effect of global warming: As temperatures rise, plant growth will accelerate, which will allow plants to take more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Others believe that the possible negative consequences of global climate change are underestimated:

· droughts, cyclones, storms and floods will become more frequent,

An increase in the temperature of the world's oceans also causes an increase in the strength of hurricanes,

· the rate of glacier melting and sea level rise will also be faster…. And this is confirmed by the latest research data.

· Already, the ocean level has increased by 4 cm instead of the predicted 2 cm, the rate of glacier melting has increased 3 times (the thickness of the ice cover has decreased by 60-70 cm, and the area of ​​non-melting ice of the Arctic Ocean has decreased by 14% in 2005 alone).

· It is possible that human activity has already doomed the ice cover to complete disappearance, which could result in a several times greater increase in sea level (by 5-7 meters instead of 40-60 cm).

· Moreover, according to some data, global warming may occur much faster than previously thought due to the release of carbon dioxide from ecosystems, including from the World Ocean.

· And finally, we must not forget that global warming may be followed by global cooling.

However, whatever the scenario, everything suggests that we must stop playing dangerous games with the planet and reduce our impact on it. It is better to overestimate the danger than to underestimate it. It’s better to do everything possible to prevent it than to bite yourself later. He who is forewarned is forearmed.

5. MEASURES NEEDED TO PREVENT GLOBAL WARMING

The international community, recognizing the dangers associated with the continued increase in greenhouse gas emissions at the 1992 UN Conference on environment and Development agreed to sign the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

In December 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto (Japan), which obliges industrialized countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5% from 1990 levels by 2008-2012, including European Union should reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 8%, the USA - by 7%, Japan - by 6%. Russia and Ukraine are content to keep their emissions below 1990 levels, and 3 countries (Australia, Iceland and Norway) may even increase their emissions because they have forests that absorb CO 2 .

For the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force, it must be ratified by states that account for at least 55% of greenhouse gas emissions. To date, the protocol has been ratified by 161 countries (more than 61% of global emissions). In Russia, the Kyoto Protocol was ratified in 2004. Notable exceptions were the United States and Australia, which make a significant contribution to the greenhouse effect, but refused to ratify the protocol.

In 2007, a new protocol was signed in Bali, expanding the list of measures that need to be taken to reduce the anthropogenic impact on climate change.

Here are some of them:

1. Reduce burning of fossil fuels

Today, 80% of our energy comes from fossil fuels, the combustion of which is the main source of greenhouse gases.

2. Use renewable energy sources more widely.

Solar and wind energy, biomass energy and geothermal energy, tidal energy - today the use of alternative energy sources is becoming a key factor for the long-term sustainable development of humanity.

3. Stop destroying ecosystems!

All attacks on pristine ecosystems must stop. Natural ecosystems absorb CO 2 and are important element in maintaining CO 2 balance. Forests are especially good at this. But in many regions of the world, forests continue to be destroyed at catastrophic rates.

4. Reduce energy losses during energy production and transportation

The transition from large-scale energy (hydroelectric power plants, thermal power plants, nuclear power plants) to small local power plants will reduce energy losses. When transporting energy over long distances, up to 50% of the energy can be lost along the way!

5. Use new energy-efficient technologies in industry

Currently, the efficiency of most technologies used is about 30%! It is necessary to introduce new energy-efficient production technologies.

6. Reduce energy consumption in the construction and housing sector.

Regulations should be adopted requiring the use of energy-efficient materials and technologies in the construction of new buildings, which will reduce energy consumption in homes by several times.

7. New laws and incentives.

Laws should be adopted that impose higher taxes on enterprises that exceed CO 2 emission limits and provide tax incentives for producers of energy from renewable sources and energy-efficient products. Redirect financial flows to the development of these technologies and industries.

8. New ways to travel

Today at big cities Vehicle emissions account for 60-80% of all emissions. The use of new environmentally friendly safe species transport, support public transport, develop infrastructure for cyclists.

9. Promote and encourage energy conservation and careful use natural resources residents of all countries

These measures will reduce greenhouse gas emissions developed countries by 80% by 2050, and by 30% by 2030 for developing countries.

Z CONCLUSION

Recently, the problem of the greenhouse effect has become more and more acute. The global climate situation requires urgent action. Proof of this can be seen in some of the consequences of the greenhouse effect that are already evident today.

Wet areas become even wetter. Continuous rains, which cause a sharp increase in the level of rivers and lakes, are becoming more frequent. Overflowing rivers are flooding coastal settlements, forcing residents to flee their homes to save their lives.

Intense rains occurred in March 1997 in the United States. Many people died, and damage was estimated at $400 million. This continuous rainfall is becoming more intense and is caused by global warming. Warm air may contain more moisture, and there is already much more moisture in Europe's atmosphere than there was 25 years ago. Where will the new rains fall? Experts say areas prone to flooding should prepare for further disasters.

In contrast, dry areas have become drier. The world is experiencing droughts as intense as they have not been seen for 69 years. Drought is destroying corn fields in America. In 1998, corn, which typically grows two meters or more, only grew to a person's waist.

However, despite these natural warnings, humanity does not take measures to reduce emissions into the atmosphere. If humanity continues to behave so irresponsibly towards its planet, then no one knows what other disasters this will result in.

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