https://www.site/2018-05-08/uchenyy_uro_ran_chego_zhdat_ot_pogody_etim_letom_i_v_blizhayshie_gody

“Normal Ural cold”

Scientist of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences: what to expect from the weather this summer and in the coming years

Jaromir Romanov

Today, Ural weather forecasters issued a new storm warning that on May 9 in the Sverdlovsk region there will be very heavy rains with winds up to 15-20 meters per second. At the same time, wet snow is expected in the mountains and in the north of the region. When to the Middle Urals the warmth will come, still unknown. Residents of the region call this spring one of the most unpredictable and coldest in history. last years. However, scientists say that this is not the case. Leading Researcher Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Biological Sciences Rashit Khantemirov told the site why this spring is better than the spring of 1898, whether the Urals can hope for a hot summer and what surprises the weather will throw at us in the coming years.

— Ordinary people, not related to science, note that this spring is colder than previous ones. And weather forecasters agree with this: in March, according to the Ural State Hydrometeorological Service, the region experienced cold temperatures 2-4 degrees (in some places up to 6) below the climate norm. And on May 4, snow fell in the cities of the Sverdlovsk region. How can this be explained and how normal is this weather for spring in the Urals?

— March 2018 was really cold, if we look at it from the point of view of the last 40-50 years. average temperature in March in Yekaterinburg it was minus 7.6 degrees. And it's cold because the average last decades- minus 3.5 degrees.

But if we take the entire observation period in Yekaterinburg, we can see that in 1898 the average temperature in March was minus 15 degrees. Even in 2013, March was slightly colder than this year - minus 7.8 degrees. And before that, similar temperatures were in 1999 - minus 8.7 degrees.

At the same time, the previous March was warm (in 2017 - on average minus 1.6 degrees) and somewhat before it. People get used to the warmth.

The main factor influencing weather, in a global sense, is the high content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But other factors continue to influence. Let's say solar activity is now at its minimum. That is, natural factors should lead to the fact that there should be a cooling. But nevertheless, the trend remains towards global warming.

— Does last April fit into the Ural norm?

— April is no longer so unusual, although it was also colder than usual. If we take the entire observation period, then this April was the most average. And if you look at the last 50 years, it really is colder.

The average air temperature in April 2018 was 2.8 degrees Celsius. In 2017 it was 4.9 degrees, in 2016 - a total of 7.5 degrees. But in 2014, April was even colder - 2.6 degrees, in 2009 - 2.1, and in 1998 - the coldest in recent years: minus 1.5 degrees.

The temperature changes from year to year, this is visible, but the long-term average values ​​are still moving upward.

If we talk about the average annual temperature, then in Yekaterinburg over the past 30 years, compared to the first 30 years of observations (starting from 1836), the average annual temperature has increased by 2.8 degrees.

Although even average annual temperature fluctuations from year to year can be by 3-4 degrees. Therefore, a person cannot subjectively feel this warming - only if you ask old-timers, they will tell you that it is getting warmer. And against the backdrop of this warming, normal March and April seem cold.

— Is it too early to analyze any data for May?

— May on average is also still below average. Let's say on May 7 the average temperature was 7.9 degrees, and in 1996 on that day it was 27 degrees. But exactly 100 years ago - in 1918 - on the same day it was minus 8.9.

Last year May was cold, and this year is off to a cold start so far. But nevertheless, if you look at spring as a whole, even if May is cold, the temperatures will not be lower than in 2013 (then it was an average of 3 degrees).

The schedule was compiled by Rashit Khantemirov

Everything is relative. What cold springs there were! They were below 0 degrees very often. And now it almost never happens below plus 3 in the spring. And if it does happen, then people complain: “Where is it so cold!” Normal Ural cold. (Smiles.)

The last 150 years have been much colder than the last 30 years.

— What temperatures in May in the Urals can be considered normal?

— The average temperature for May for the entire observation period is 10 degrees. Last year's May, which everyone thought was cold, was just average. And so in recent years it was 12-13 degrees average monthly temperature in May.

These 7 days in Yekaterinburg the average temperature is 7 degrees. But this is only the beginning of the month.

— Last winter was also somewhat anomalous: there were few snowfalls, the largest ones occurred closer to spring. How can this be explained?

— Yes, there was less precipitation than usual, but again within the range of variability of winter precipitation. Moreover, we still caught up at the end of the season.

- But this doesn’t mean that now there will be less snow all the time in winter than we are used to?

— While it’s still possible to make at least some forecasts based on temperature, it’s more difficult with precipitation. The general trend is that where there was a lot of precipitation, there will be more, and where there was little, there will be less. It seems that based on these general considerations, we should have less rainfall, because we have little precipitation compared to, say, the western macroslope of the Urals. But this is such a general conclusion that cannot be called a forecast.

— Is it possible to make any forecast about what summer will be like in the Urals this year?

- The only thing I can say is that I began to compare what kind of summer it was after the same spring. I looked at several past cold March and Aprils - what July was like then. It turned out that the summer was either average or above average.

For example, March 2013 was very cold, with an average of minus 7.8 degrees. And July 2013 was above average - 19.7 degrees Celsius. March was even colder in 1999 - minus 8.7. And in July of that year - 20.1 degrees.

That is, in past years, when March was cold, July was warm. This means we can hope for a warm summer.

But, for example, in 2014 July was very cold - an average of 14.4 degrees Celsius. And March was almost record warm - minus 1.3 degrees.

- If climate change largely related to global warming, are there any long-term forecasts? For example, what will the next winters be like? Will they be warmer than the previous ones? Will summers get warmer in the coming decades?

— Yes, in the next 50 years, at least, it will only get warmer. The main factor of action is completely clear - the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will not decrease for several decades. And even if it suddenly begins to decrease, its influence on the climate will continue for several decades. Even with the implementation of the Paris Agreements, global warming will continue for many decades to come.

The schedule was compiled by Rashit Khantemirov

Already, there is practically no area on Earth where it has not become warm in recent decades. Although there are different patterns. Say, in Siberia in the middle of the 20th century winter temperatures grew very quickly. In Yakutia they increased by almost 10 degrees. And in the last 30 years they have begun to fall. That is, there is a counterbalance to the trend. It seems that according to the models, winter temperatures should rise first, and summer temperatures not so much, but in the north it now turns out that summer temperatures are rising even faster than winter ones. There are such mysteries, now all sorts of models and versions are being built. Not everything is clear, but nevertheless the general trend is the same - it will get warmer.

— Is it possible to assume specifically for the Urals: when will it warm up faster - in winter or in summer?

— Judging by the statistics, the fastest warming in our country is March (by 4.5 degrees over the last 30 years compared to the first 30 years of observations) and December (by 4.3 degrees), and the slowest is July (by 1.5 degrees ). That is, it warms mainly in winter and spring, and warms slowest in summer. Moreover, more and more often in recent years, August has become warmer than July, although it is believed that July is the warmest month.

— Doesn’t this mean that at some point the obvious boundaries between the seasons that existed before will be erased, and autumn, winter, and spring will become equal in temperature?

— In general, this is justified. Since winter is warming faster than summer, it means that the difference between winter and summer is decreasing. But nevertheless, the difference between the average temperatures of December and July 100 years ago was 33 degrees, and now it is 32 degrees. When this becomes equal, another millennium must pass! It's just that winters will be warmer, so the duration of permanent snow cover will decrease, in this sense, it will probably seem that the difference is decreasing.

Most accurate forecast The hydrometeorological center is already telling us what the summer of 2017 will be like in Russia. Forecasters promise moderately warm weather in June, hot July and cooling from mid-August throughout the state. The bulk of precipitation will fall at the beginning of summer in the Urals, Moscow and St. Petersburg, and in the Middle Zone and in the south the end of August will be rainier. The average temperature across the country in the first summer month will be about +23°C. By the middle of the season this figure will change to +30...32°C, and at the beginning of August it will reach +33°C. From August 15, the heat will subside and the air will clearly smell the rapidly approaching autumn.

Will the summer of 2017 in Russia be hot or cold - expert forecasts for each month

Mostly warm, dry and not rich in precipitation - this is what the summer of 2017 in Russia will be like, according to preliminary forecasts of experts. It will not be possible to call it definitely hot or cold, since in different regions of the state the season will have its own distinct shades.

Detailed and accurate forecast of the hydrometeorological center for the summer of 2017 for Russia by month

The beginning of June 2017 throughout Russia will be remembered for moderate warmth and partly cloudy weather. The thermometer column for this period of time in middle lane will not rise above +15…18°C. In the northern districts, the average daily temperature will be +10...13°C, and only in the south will thermometers record truly summer temperatures (+18...23°C).

Warming will come Russian land only around June 20th. The mercury throughout almost the entire country will finally reach +20...22°C, and in last days month will rise even higher (up to +28°C). Precipitation in the form of short-term rain and hail will occur in the first ten days of June, and in the following weeks dry, clear and rather hot weather will set in.

In July you should expect baking sun and suffocating heat. The summer heat will warm the air in the northern parts of Russia to +20...22°C, and in the southern regions the thermometer will cross the +30°C mark and stop between +33...35°C. This trend will continue until August 10, and by the 15th the heat will sharply subside. Regular rains and gusty winds will become characteristic feature the last month of summer and will bring with them cooler air and the distinct smell of rapidly approaching autumn.

Weather forecast for the capital - what summer 2017 will be like in Moscow

A preliminary weather forecast made by specialists from the Russian hydrometeorological center reports that, in general, the summer of 2017 in Moscow will not be swelteringly hot. At the beginning of June the air will warm up to only +18°C and only on the 20th a warm cyclone will radically change this situation, causing the mercury to jump sharply to +25°C. Short-term rains will fall only at the very beginning of summer, and the second part of June and July will be dry, clear and almost cloudless.

Real heat will cover the capital only in mid-July, and the end and beginning of August will be marked by very aggressive temperature indicators (+30...33°C in daytime day and about +25…27°C at night). Starting on August 15, cold weather will come to the city, and in the last days of the month, Muscovites and guests of the capital will have to observe short-term rains and a cloudy sky, clearly hinting at the approaching autumn.

What will summer 2017 be like in St. Petersburg - the weather according to weather forecasters

According to weather forecasters, in the summer of 2017 the weather in St. Petersburg will be quite traditional and in no way will it exceed the average statistical norms typical for this season in the region. The bulk of the rain will fall in June, and the daytime temperature in the first summer month will not rise above +22...23°C. Sharp heat will come to the city on the Neva only after June 25, when the mercury will reach +29°C during the day and about +21°C at dark time days.

July will delight you with stable warmth, clear skies and almost complete calm. Some days will surprise you with pronounced heat (up to +33°C), but it will not last long and by mid-August the temperature will begin to decline. Atmospheric fronts will bring with them regular precipitation and gusty winds, and walking along the picturesque streets without an umbrella and a windproof jacket will become very uncomfortable. The weather will finally deteriorate at the end of August and Northern Palmyra will greet the first month of autumn with cloudy skies and moderately cool temperatures (+13...16°C during the day and about +6...10°C at night).

What will summer 2017 be like in the Urals - weather forecasters' forecasts

According to weather forecasters, the summer of 2017 in the Urals will be very changeable and unstable. In June, the region is attacked by heavy rains, and the average daily temperature will not exceed +18...20°C. But in July the full-fledged heat will suddenly set in. The thermometer readings will instantly soar to +34...36°C and from the 1st to the 20th not a single drop of rain will fall. The suffocating heat will decrease slightly only towards the end of the month and at the same time intense downpours will begin in the Urals. The beginning of August will be quite comfortable. During the daytime the air will warm up to +27…30°C, and by night it will cool down to +20°C. Precipitation will completely stop and will no longer prevent residents and guests of the district from going out into nature and enjoying their vacation at forest camp sites. In the last days of August it will begin to get actively colder, and the temperature will drop by 1-2 degrees almost every day. This will be a full-fledged sign that summer has come to its natural end and the golden beauty of autumn will soon come into its own.

Many people look forward to summer, which brings warm days and the opportunity to enjoy an active lifestyle. At the same time, Russians are accustomed to taking vacations during the summer months, focusing on the weather forecast. At the same time, the hot season can be devoted to tourist trips, beach holiday, spending time at the dacha.

IN Lately People are increasingly asking what the summer of 2018 will be like in the Urals. Without a doubt, it is impossible to make a reliable weather forecast for every day, but people have the right to know approximate trends to determine weather conditions.

General forecast
Forecasters are in no hurry to please the residents of the Urals with forecasts. It is believed that there will be quite a lot of rainy days in 2018. At the same time, real heat with very high temperatures is not expected.

Next summer promises to be moderate, not hot. The only exception may be the last summer month, namely August. At this time you will be able to enjoy truly summer weather. On some days you will be able to feel the real heat, thanks to which all your plans for outdoor recreation will be able to come true.

Forecast for June
One of the most important superstitions has long been associated with the very first day of June. If the first day is warm, then the subsequent summer months will be the same. If the weather is cool and rainy, the subsequent summer will be disappointing low temperatures and heavy rainfall. In fact, it is difficult to say how accurate this weather forecast is. In order to confirm it, you need to survive the summer of 2018.

Forecasters are confident that June will start with rain. In this case, the air temperature will not exceed 20 degrees Celsius. Only in the second decade will warming begin and the rains will become less abundant and longer lasting. The end of the month may be sunnier: the sky will periodically clear and the thermometer will even show 25 degrees Celsius. Despite this gradual improvement in weather conditions, hot weather should not be expected. It can be assumed that the weather in the Urals for the summer of 2018 from the Hydrometeorological Center will be unstable, so the end of June will again be stormy.

Forecast for July
Forecasters note that mid-summer will enjoy beautiful weather. Hot days should alternate with stormy ones, but the month will not be too stifling or damp. The most comfortable weather is guaranteed, so all people can enjoy their time and take care of the implementation of their plans.

At the beginning of July it may be partly cloudy. In addition, periodic precipitation and occasional showers and thunderstorms are forecast. Despite such forecasts, the rains will go away quickly. In addition, the wind promises to be light. The weather will be quite warm.

The second decade will already delight you with hot weather. The clouds will go away for a while. This sunny weather can last for about two weeks, so this period will be ideal for a vacation.

Only at the end of July will the rainy period with showers begin again. The air temperature will be about 30 degrees. It can be assumed that this period will bring not only freshness, but also higher humidity, as a result of which weather-sensitive people will suffer from changes.

Forecast for August
Wondering what the summer of 2018 will be like in the Urals, you need to find out what it will be like weather in the last month of summer. This period promises to delight lovers of sunny and hot weather.

The air will warm up to 33 - 35 degrees. At the same time, the rains will again give way to the sun. It is on such days that you can fully enjoy an active lifestyle, walks, and spending time in the blooming and picturesque nature of the Urals.

At the beginning of the third decade, the stormy period will begin again. At the same time, the rains will become long and mournful, reminding that autumn is approaching. Despite this, the end of August and summer will still be quite pleasing warm weather, since the air will warm up to 25 degrees.

The Hydrometeorological Center of Russia has compiled a forecast for six months ahead - for everything warm months, from April to September 2018.

Forecasters give such preliminary forecasts every year, but call them probabilistic. Unlike usual weather forecasts for the coming days, here they predict not temperature or rain, but deviations from climate norms. Where it will be warmer, and where it will be colder than usual, where it will be too damp, and where it will be dry. And, of course, these norms are different for each region - an ordinary summer in Sochi and an equally ordinary one in Murmansk are not at all similar to each other.

Forecasts for such a long period are approximately 70% accurate, warn the Russian Hydrometeorological Center.

In general, the warm half of the year in Russia is expected to be quite normal and normal - with temperatures and precipitation within normal limits. But this is on average.

What should residents prepare for? different regions? In the forecast for each month, we indicate only areas where unusual weather conditions are expected, where weather forecasters predict deviations from climate norms.

APRIL

Very warm spring weather will be established in the north-west of Russia: in St. Petersburg and Leningrad region, Pskov region, Kaliningrad region, on the Kola Peninsula. April will also be warmer than climate norms in many areas Krasnoyarsk Territory and Yakutia.

Very dry - in Crimea, Rostov and Kursk regions, as well as in the Arctic - from Naryan-Mar to Tiksi, in Magadan region, in Kamchatka.

Rainy April is expected in the Volga region and the Urals: in Astrakhan, Samara, Volgograd, Kazan, Ufa, Yekaterinburg, Perm, Chelyabinsk. Many Siberian regions will also receive more precipitation than expected according to climate standards: Novosibirsk, Barnaul, Krasnoyarsk, Yakutsk.

Unusual warmth in May will delight residents of the northern regions: from Arkhangelsk and Syktyvkar to Perm, Salekhar and Khanty-Mansiysk.

Dry May - in the center of the Ural Federal District (in Yekaterinburg, Perm, Khanty-Mansiysk, Surgut), as well as in the Amur region.

A very wet month awaits the Murmansk region, part of Karelia and Arkhangelsk region, south of the Volga region - Volgograd and Astrakhan, Irkutsk region, Khabarovsk region, Primorye, Sakhalin.

JUNE

Abnormally warm start summer is expected only in the Far North, from Naryan-Mar to Khatanga.

There is a deficit of precipitation in June in Siberia, from Khatanga in the north to Yeniseisk in the south, and also in the Amur region.

Forecasters promise a rainy June in the middle zone: in Moscow, Tula, Kursk, Nizhny Novgorod; as well as in the Irkutsk region and part of Magadan.

JULY

July will be hotter than usual in many Volga and Ural regions: Tatarstan, Udmurtia, Bashkortostan, Perm region, Sverdlovsk region, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, Tyumen region.

Dry land - in some areas of the Krasnoyarsk and Khabarovsk territories.

A wet midsummer is expected in the south of the Ural Federal District, Transbaikal and the Magadan region.

AUGUST

Abnormally hot August can happen in the center of the Siberian Federal District: Krasnoyarsk, Kemerovo, Bratsk, Tomsk, Ust-Ilimsk...

Dry in Transbaikalia and Primorye. Residents of the Omsk and Novosibirsk regions, as well as Altai, will greet autumn with rain.

Studying weather forecasters for the summer allows every tourist to easily choose a time to travel. We have collected detailed information about what the summer of 2018 will be like in Russia. Data on precipitation and temperature in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and the Urals will help you get a complete picture of weather changes. Data about what summer will be like in the south and north will help you easily determine the city where travelers will go. We also recommend that before your trip you find out whether it will rain, heat or warm in the city where tourists will go.

What will the summer of 2018 in Russia be like, weather forecasters' forecasts for temperature, precipitation

According to weather forecasters, there will be no significant differences in the summer weather for this year and last year. The central regions will remain warm with only occasional rainfall. For the northern and southern regions, these data may differ slightly. To learn more about what the summer of 2018 will be like in Russia, the forecasts we have selected will help you.

Weather forecasts for the summer of 2018 for Russia - data on precipitation, temperature

Warming in Russia should be expected at the end of May. In June, the temperature in the central part will rise to +20 degrees, but in July it will already be about +27 degrees. The same heat will last until the end of August.

What will summer 2018 be like in Russia - weather forecasters for the south and north

Summer temperatures and precipitation vary significantly in different parts of the country. To learn more about what summer 2018 will be like for the south and north of Russia, the forecasts we have selected will help you.

What will summer be like in 2018 in the southern and northern parts of Russia?

Temperatures will be high in southern Russia. Therefore, residents of this region should prepare for the usual heat of about +30 degrees and above. In the northern part of the country the most heat in summer it will be about +25, +27 degrees. Occasional short periods of rain are possible.

What will the weather be like this summer in Russia - forecasts for Moscow, St. Petersburg, the Urals

Using the forecasts we have selected, readers can easily find out what the weather will be like this summer in the Urals, Moscow, and St. Petersburg. Accurate data will help you easily choose the optimal travel time.

What will the summer of 2018 be like in Moscow and St. Petersburg?

In June, Moscow and St. Petersburg will be quite warm, with only occasional rain. But in July and August it will be hot with temperatures of about +27 and +30 degrees.

What will summer be like in 2018 in the Urals - weather forecasts

In June there will be frequent rains in the Urals. In July, this region will be hot, stuffy and periodically rainy. But in August there will be pleasant warm weather.