Medvedev's resignation 2019: last news today is a chronicle of the removal of the Russian prime minister from power and how protests against his rule are taking place in Russia.
This is yet another epoch-making chronicle dedicated to Medvedev’s resignation. Millions of Russians are waiting for this event, so the article will be constantly updated as new information becomes available.
In this article:
The material is based exclusively on real information, reflects the mood of society, and has only one goal - to record recent changes in the history of Russia, analyze the situation and determine its consequences.
Last news
March 1. People on the Internet are in favor of appointing Grudinin to replace Medvedev. According to many users, the former presidential candidate and head of the Lenin State Farm will better solve Russia's internal problems.
February 22. The Americans called Medvedev a problem for Russia. An article about this was published in Politico. And the BBC laughed at the rise in prices in Russia, noting that over 19 years the government has achieved price reductions only for international phone calls.
12th of February. Experts continue to name candidates to replace Medvedev. Chuichenko, Sobyanin, Beglov and even Ksenia Sobchak are predicted to take over the successor post.
February 4. The majority of Russians (60%) are dissatisfied with the work of the Medvedev government. The data is published on the FOM website.
January 29. Deputy Valery Rashkin said that 60% of those who criticize Medvedev will go to prison after the adoption of the new law. It's about on criminal prosecution of people for criticizing the authorities in the new bill.
The 25th of January. Medvedev began reorganizing the Government. The truth is not as deep as voters would like - only departments that duplicate each other’s functions will be removed.
January 16. Medvedev switched to a Russian-made people's car, the Aurus Senat, the starting price of which is about 10 million rubles. It uses a domestic gearbox.
January 10. Medvedev's resignation may take place in March. This version was expressed by journalist and analyst Sergei Karaulov. According to his assumptions, Putin will replace Medvedev with Sobyanin, and Sergei Kiriyenko will be appointed mayor of Moscow.
January 2. Contrary to hopes, the Cabinet of Ministers did not resign Putin. Medvedev also continues to fulfill his duties, despite a trust rating of 6%. More and more political scientists are inclined to think that the current prime minister is simply convenient for Putin to blame all his failures on him.
December 18. Regular rallies for Medvedev’s resignation took place in Vladimir, Birobidzhan, and Kazan. The country is awaiting the resignation of the Cabinet of Ministers. Khodorkovsky spoke about nepotism in power, and that changes are impossible, since children and relatives of politicians work in the system.
December 6. Information flashed in the press that Medvedev will be replaced by Sobyanin. The basis for the upcoming personnel reshuffle was rumors on the sidelines of the Kremlin, as well as the postponement of Putin’s traditional message from December to 2019.
November 9. Medvedev was among the participants in the “Shameful Regiment”. He was accused of raising the retirement age.
October 15. Supporters of Medvedev's resignation are included in the Ministry of Internal Affairs' Watchdog database. Last Sunday in Chelyabinsk, a rally of supporters of Alexei Navalny, who planned to start an open-ended action against the resignation of the prime minister, was dispersed. One of the activists was detained; the reason for the detention was being included in the lists of the specified database.
October 8. Political ideologist Maxim Shevchenko said that Russians are waiting for Medvedev’s resignation. According to him, the reason for public sentiment lies in the anti-people decisions of the government.
The 4th of October. Medvedev banned caps in the army. Deep reform of the army involves issuing 1 white shirt to officers for 5 years, and the word “cap” in the documentation will be replaced with “hat”. Soldiers will also receive two pairs of underpants per year of service.
October 3. The communists continue to demand Medvedev's resignation. In the Oryol region, regular protests took place during which a resolution was adopted to remove the prime minister and change the economic course.
Prerequisites for resignation
According to VTsIOM, Medvedev’s trust rating at the beginning of 2019 is only 8.3%. According to the FOM rating - only 6%. According to the results of a Levada-Center survey, 62% of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the actions of the Russian Government, which is headed by Dmitry Anatolyevich.
During the invasion of Ukraine in 2014, approval of the Medvedev government's actions reached its second peak.
In 2017-2018, a drop in ratings was also provoked by a scandal against the backdrop of the film “He’s Not Dimon.” In addition, due to foreign sanctions, the economic situation in the country has deteriorated significantly, and all promises regarding import substitution turned out to be a lie.
When will Medvedev resign?
Over the years of his presidency, Putin has consistently covered the members of his team. Considering that the structure of the Russian oligarchy rests firmly on the boundless love of the president, he will sacrifice his prime minister only as a last resort. And even in this case, he will give him another bread position.
Like, for example, Usmanov, Rogozin, Serdyukov or Kozak. The same Chubais, having a super-negative rating, did not go hungry under Putin.
The growth of dissatisfaction with the prime minister and the chairman of United Russia is beneficial to Putin. A detailed study of the audience’s behavior shows that society blames Medvedev for all the mistakes of Putin’s policies.
The formula “good tsar – bad boyars” is confirmed by the relative stability of the president’s own rating. Thus, the well-known duet is a win-win method of political technology. And after the failure of United Russia in the local elections, the authorities will begin to rebrand, and, with a high degree of probability, Medvedev will soon be presented to Russians in a new image. Instead of a “plush liberal”, a “tough reformer” will appear on the stage.
However, the economy under the current oligarchic system, based on the theft of government purchases from oil money, is doomed to failure. They will finish it off with sanctions; it is not viable on its own.
Medvedev will be removed from power along with Putin, or sacrificed by him in the next 5-7 years. So resignation is inevitable.
What will Medvedev's resignation lead to?
If Putin nevertheless risks removing Medvedev from the post of prime minister, then the situation in the country will practically not change. Yes, some reforms will be undertaken, a series of promises and PR will begin, but it will last no more than 1-2 years. There is less and less faith in Putin’s team in the country, this can be seen from the general sentiments and results regional elections, and according to the same ratings.
If Medvedev’s resignation coincides with Putin’s removal, then with a high degree of probability the people will again vote for another king, albeit with less corruption ambitions, but with more authoritarian power.
Instead of civilized parliamentary government, Russians are now waiting for the newly-minted Stalin, who will imprison corrupt officials (and enemies of the people), develop war machine and expand boundaries. Putin has probably already chosen a similar successor for himself.
The oligarchy also benefits from a king. The system is built very firmly, they have nowhere to run, in their hands are the police, the National Guard, the state security system, money. What can a frightened people do to counter this?
On the other hand, this newly elected Stalin will be the last Russian dictator. Next the time will come for pro-Western politicians like Navalny. By that time, of course, he will already be out of prison, old and gray-haired, and 40-year-old schoolchildren will take his oath under their arms.
So Medvedev's resignation should be seen as a small step towards big changes in the future, but with a long delay. And there is no doubt that it will happen.
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev may resign as early as May. This is stated in the published report of the Minchenko Consulting group of experts, dedicated to the agenda of Vladimir Putin’s presidential campaign.
Experts note three dates when Medvedev’s resignation from the post of prime minister is most likely, but May 2017, in their opinion, is the most the best option. If this happens, the government will be headed by Alexei Kudrin.
The second opportunity will appear in August-September - before the start of the new financial year and the formation of a new budget. Putin’s last opportunity to change the prime minister will be in January 2018, the first month of the official presidential campaign. In addition to Kudrin, experts name Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin as candidates for prime minister.
The report notes that if the resignation does not occur within the specified time frame, then Medvedev will retain the post of prime minister. Analysts emphasize that since 2004, the president has consistently dismissed the government on the eve of elections.
The issue of Medvedev's resignation directly depends on the image in which Vladimir Putin plans to appear before Russian voters, experts add. They indicate the two most optimal ones. For the image of the Ruler-Sage, the best opponent in the elections is the leader of the LDPR Vladimir Zhirinovsky in the image of the Fighter-Rebel. For the election campaign under the slogan of the Ruler-Teacher, young politicians who grew up in the Putin era will be chosen as opponents.
IN election campaign Putin’s experts see risks; they counted nine of them. These include the age of the president, who will be 65 years old at the time of the elections, the deterioration of the economic and social situation in the country, the escalation of conflicts in Putin’s inner circle, the growing influence of the Internet on public opinion and the lack of interest among the electorate of the current president (why vote if Putin and will he win?).
IN Lately Rumors about the impending resignation of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev have intensified. Last week, Vladimir Putin said that “Dmitry Anatolyevich was not saved” and he was sick with the flu. This is how the president explained Medvedev’s absence at the government meeting on March 14. Later, the Prime Minister missed a meeting of the Russian Security Council. On the sidelines there were suggestions that Medvedev did not get sick, but was temporarily “removed” after the scandalous investigative film “He’s Not Dimon” by Alexei Navalny.
Last Thursday, March 23, Medvedev, at a meeting with representatives of small and medium-sized businesses in the field of road transportation, in response to congratulations on his recovery, said that he was not ill. “Yes, I wasn’t sick,” the prime minister replied, which made him start talking again about the existing confrontation between Putin and Medvedev.
On February 2, the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) of Alexei Navalny published an investigation into the real estate of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. The publication claims that the head of the Russian government owns plots of land in elite areas, manages yachts, apartments in old mansions, agricultural complexes and wineries in Russia and abroad.
This coming Sunday, March 26, protests will be held in cities across the country under the slogan “He is not Dimon to us,” demanding an official investigation into the facts discovered and calling on Medvedev to resign.
The number of political assets with a minus sign is growing at an unplanned pace.
Let's start, however, with the first one. Has Medvedev really become a burden for the regime?
There is no doubt about it. The Levada Center poll that worried him (45% of respondents were in favor of resignation, 33% were against) in all major parameters, including the breakdown of answers to other questions, is very close to the information from the weekly reports of the near-Kremlin FOM. All “Medvedev’s” indicators are worsening there with each new measurement, and the share of those who believe that the prime minister is “working poorly in his post” since mid-April has exceeded the number of those who believe that he is “good.”
Medvedev has never been perceived by our public as an independent figure. He shone with reflected light, and fluctuations in his popularity indices always followed fluctuations in those of Putin. Perhaps this is still the case. Putin's indices are also declining. But they still remain in the positive zone, while Medvedev’s have moved into the negative.
The prime minister’s reaction to the video “He’s not your Dimon” confirmed his lack of any political qualifications or simply the ability to take a punch. Until recently, the universal helplessness of the head of government created an atmosphere of comfort for Putin, but today it is desirable that people in his circle show other qualities to the people. There is not the slightest hope that Medvedev will find them. He became a clear political burden, which, when strong desire You can, of course, carry it further, but it would be more logical to throw it off your shoulders.
However, the logic of the highest decisions cannot be so straightforward.
Who will replace Medvedev? Another figurehead? But premieres of the caliber of Mikhail Fradkov looked like something normal in completely different times. The reaction from below, and not only from below, to someone strange and weak is now completely unpredictable, and instead of releasing it, it can also increase tension.
And the elevation to prime minister of a person perceived as a strong figure is too similar to the appointment of an heir. So, at least, it will be understood and even, perhaps, interpreted as Putin’s most important strategic decision in the last ten years. Also risky and does not increase comfort.
You can, of course, choose a middle ground and appoint as first minister some technocrat programmed for so-called unpopular measures, in order to then please the people with his shameful expulsion. But events can easily spin out of control. The system is rusty and can crumble from any shock.
The fate of the so-called Medvedev government is no less important. “So-called” because this is not one structure, but several departmental alliances, and they are not led by Medvedev at all, but partly by Putin, and partly they act autonomously - both according to their own understanding and in the interests of competing lobbying teams.
But while the prime minister is merely a symbol of government, his political disappearance would call into question all these intertwined ambitions, established governance practices and hard-won balances.
For example, does Putin want the “economic bloc” to fall (the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development and related departments, which, albeit with difficulty, work in conjunction with the Central Bank, which is nominally not part of the government)? After all, he is ideologically close to them, albeit not on all points. Connoisseurs economic history It’s not for nothing that Putin is recognized as a spontaneous adherent of mercantilism. There was a doctrine in past centuries that prescribed accumulating cash reserves in the treasury, preventing the import of goods, relying on government business and not allow expenses to exceed income significantly.
The “economic bloc”’s ideas about what it would be desirable to do are somewhat more sophisticated, but in reality it is pursuing exactly this course. Which the leader likes, but is not particularly popular in court circles, where many magnates feel deprived, and at the same time irritates the people more and more, since the burden of the austerity regime has shifted to him.
They say that United Russia will praise Putin at the May Day events, expressively keeping silent about both Medvedev and the government, and the state-owned trade unions working with it will begin to defame the “economic bloc.” The suspended state of the former prime minister is already being exploited with might and main by fighters for tasty positions in the executive branch, without any signal from above.
Promoting this insignificant person in ancient times, Vladimir Putin, of course, did not imagine that the system would spontaneously turn him into its most important unit, the replacement of which promised so many problems, and, moreover, at the most inopportune time.
Sergey Shelin
https://www.site/2017-03-17/mozhet_li_dmitriy_medvedev_uyti_v_otstavku
Political flu
Can Dmitry Medvedev resign?
Komsomolskaya Pravda/Global Look Press
In recent weeks, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has found himself at the center of a major scandal caused by the publication of an investigation into politician Alexei Navalny. Then, according to Vladimir Putin, he caught the flu and because of this he missed a government meeting. Today Medvedev did not come to the meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. This gave reason to say that Medvedev’s problems are really serious. Experts with whom the site spoke note that the prime minister and his entourage chose ineffective defense tactics. However, Medvedev is likely to retain his post until the 2018 elections.
"Protection for three plus"
It is impossible to react “head-on” to attacks like those carried out by Navalny, political scientist Abbas Gallyamov told the site. “Any reaction from Medvedev would only become an additional source of information on a topic that is unfavorable to him and would create a feeling of equality of the debating parties,” he believes. — Any conflict equalizes the parties. For Navalny this would be a victory, and for Medvedev a defeat. However, one cannot simply remain silent either. You need to impose your agenda. Directly push it with all your weight. That did not happen. Medvedev just got sick. To call this an adequate reaction can only be a mockery,” the expert believes. In his opinion, Medvedev’s entourage needed to organize “a wave of comments from experts who would say that now the prime minister’s position will be strengthened, because the attack turned out to be meaningless, and in general Putin does not like it when his people are touched.” However, this was not done.
Former deputy presidential envoy to the Urals Federal District, political scientist Andrei Kolyadin believes that Medvedev had no defense tactics at all. “Unfortunately, our government and presidential team for many years operated in a situation where political opponents were tied up and bolted to a chair,” he says. “And when they start striking, it’s amazing.” An information attack from Navalny is not something surprising that is impossible to fight. For example, a video of live babies being eaten at a government meeting was not published. At the same time, people are trying to pretend that nothing happened, although more than 13 million people watched the video. And it looks strange,” says the former official. He says that in Russia there are specialists in information warfare who could be involved in the situation instead of banning Navalny on Instagram or trying to interrupt the agenda with a myrrh-streaming bust of Nicholas II.
“I respect the government team, however, unfortunately, it is not adapted to the pre-election period, and such a period is always information war“adds the expert.
Kremlin Pool / Global Look Press
The head of the International Institute of Political Expertise, Evgeny Minchenko, believes that Medvedev’s defense was worked out with a “C plus”.
“Answers with an emphasis on Navalny’s criminal record were not very successful, given that there is an archetype of a “convicted person who suffered for the truth.” This strengthens it, not weakens it. But translating the question into the plane of which of the elite groups benefits from an attack on Medvedev has justified itself. There was no fatal damage,” says Minchenko.
Political scientist Vitaly Ivanov says that the effectiveness of the tactics chosen by the Prime Minister and his entourage after the release of Navalny’s materials is questionable, but the basic stability of the government does not depend on the quality of the information policy.
“Weakened, but won’t go away”
Experts say that the government's position has weakened after the events of the last week and a half. In a democratic country, serious questions would arise for the cabinet of ministers, but the Russian prime minister will most likely remain in office until the end of Vladimir Putin’s current presidential term.
“Of course, Medvedev’s position has weakened. Putin, of course, will not dismiss him now, but the prime minister’s influence on the country’s affairs will decrease. People don’t really listen to him anyway, but now the feeling of a “lame duck” has strengthened even more,” says Abbas Gallyamov.
In any society where democratic principles prevail, talk about the resignation of the government after latest events would become possible, but in the current conditions this issue is being resolved in one office, argues Andrei Kolyadin.
“If Vladimir Putin gives his word, he keeps it - this is an important trait of his character. There are promises that the president makes for a certain period of time, and he fulfills them. The government’s term may expire with the election cycle,” notes Kolyadin.
By the way, there is a popular rumor in the establishment that at the end of 2011, Vladimir Putin gave Dmitry Medvedev his word: in exchange for Dmitry Anatolyevich refusing a second presidential term, he was guaranteed the position of prime minister until 2018.
Zamir Usmanov/Global Look Press
Political strategist Vitaly Ivanov also believes that there is not a single reason to expect that the government will not complete its work before the end of Putin’s third term. Navalny’s current attack on Medvedev is likely to strengthen him, since Putin does not like to make decisions under pressure, recalls Evgeny Minchenko in turn. Recently, Medvedev has repositioned himself towards “Deputy Prime Minister for Social Issues and the Agrarian Complex”, showing his own niche, the expert says.
Minchenko recalls that in the 2000s, before every election, except for the 2012 elections with an announced reshuffle, the government resigned to regroup the elites, and that on the eve of the 2017 elections, such a new regrouping would also look logical, for example, the new prime minister could even be a fairly young man under the age of 40, with experience at the federal level with the most unexpected surname.
MGIMO professor, head of the department of public relations Valery Solovey notes that now the government is under attack from a variety of elite groups, but his early resignation is impossible, since Putin at a recent meeting with the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs made it clear that the new government will be formed by a new president.
According to Solovy, there are two broad coalitions that are monitoring the weakening of Medvedev’s positions; at the center of one of them, according to him, is the head of the presidential administration Anton Vaino, at the center of the other is the first deputy head of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko. The coalition around Medvedvev himself, which includes Deputy Prime Ministers Arkady Dvorkovich and Igor Shuvalov, is now in a defensive position, Solovey says.
The absence of the Prime Minister at a meeting with permanent members of the Security Council is not a reason to bury him, the head of the Political Expert Group, Konstantin Kalachev, optimistically believes. “As for Navalny’s investigation, we can at least remember that some time ago Navalny’s target was the Prosecutor General. But Chaika not only retained his position, but even strengthened it. I am sure that there is no need to worry about Medvedev’s fate. He will still work,” says the expert.