On Monday, May 29, a yellow alert level was declared in Moscow and the Moscow region due to increased winds and an approaching thunderstorm. Experts told the site how to behave correctly in a storm and how to protect yourself from the consequences of sudden weather changes.

May 29 is warm. Wind gusts will reach 7-12 meters per second, in some places - 22 meters per second.

Atmospheric pressure will be 741 millimeters of mercury and may fall to a record level. As a result, weather-dependent people may feel unwell.

It is worth noting that in total four meteorological danger levels are determined: a green level means that no hazardous or adverse events are expected.
Yellow - weather Potentially hazardous, with possible precipitation, thunderstorms and squally winds.

Orange level - weather phenomena pose a real danger to people's lives (blizzards, hail, heat, frost, etc.).

A red level is declared when there is a threat of hurricanes, heavy rainfall, heavy snowfall, or extreme fire danger that could cause severe property damage and loss of life.

“Squally winds of up to 17 meters per second are possible near these thunderclouds.”

According to Leading specialist of the weather center "Phobos" Alexander Sinenkov, in Moscow on Monday short-term rains are expected, in some places with local thunderstorms.

“Near these thunderclouds, squally winds of up to 17 meters per second are possible, but such wind increases are short-term and will last about 10–15 minutes,” the meteorologist told the website.

He added that in areas of cumulonimbus clouds (thunderstorms – website), caution must be exercised, since “the channels of lightning shafts can range from several to several tens of centimeters,” which poses a danger to humans.

"If you are indoors, then you need to close all the windows and go deeper into the room. If you are outside, then you need to get away from metal objects, aimed at the sky. If a thunderstorm finds you near a body of water, you need to quickly leave it, since there is a high probability that lightning will strike where it is humid - here the electrical conductivity of the soil is higher. When fishing during a thunderstorm, it is best to reel in and put away your fishing rods because some, such as lightweight graphite rods, conduct electricity. Also, do not stand on the ground during a thunderstorm. open area and hide under the trees. For example, if a tree stands in a field, then there is a very high probability that it will be struck by lightning,” the expert concluded.

According to Head of the crisis management department of the situation center of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia Anatoly Tsygankov, a yellow danger level is introduced when wind gusts can reach 25 meters per second or more. On May 29, squally winds of up to 22 meters per second are expected, which is a threat to Muscovites.

"The yellow level is not so dangerous. It is determined by a thunderstorm and wind. An increase in wind is associated with a thunderstorm - this is the most dangerous for humans. Today in the region there will be gusts of wind up to 22 meters per second. Within the city limits, guy wires and cranes with a height of 15 meters. There is a possibility of falling trees and small structures, such as billboards.

"All people are weather sensitive and only 5-10 percent are weather dependent"

On May 29, weather-sensitive people may feel worse. Biometeorologist Marina Trubina noted that at this time, children under one year old and older people over the age of 60 are most susceptible to weather influences. In addition, “virtually all people are weather sensitive, and only 5–10 percent are weather dependent.”

"The cardiovascular, bronchopulmonary, and endocrinological systems always react to when the weather changes. First of all, the hypothalamus reacts, it adapts to the weather. If a person is athletic and eats right, then he will not react to the weather as much as a person who is unhealthy way of life. But everyone is sensitive to the weather - since we are all living organisms and adapt to changes. For weather-dependent people, it is very important to understand what exactly affects them - for some it is hot, for others it is cold, for others it is cloudy weather ". If a person is sick, then he needs to take certain medications, and do this six hours before the expected worsening of the weather. And you need to consult a doctor. In addition, you can take sedatives (calming - website) drugs, vitamin infusions, and you can also dress warmly and take a walk,” the biometeorologist recommended.

How to transfer correctly magnetic storms- website.

New temperature records are a fairly new phenomenon. However, scientists say: the temperature on Earth began to rise already in the 19th century. And the reason for this lies in the increasingly active economic activity person.

Note that according to AccuWeather, average temperature in May 2017 it was 10 degrees, with an average monthly norm of 13–14 degrees.

We present to the readers of our resource, which was first published by MK, and 10 days later it was mysteriously removed from the publication’s website.

Everything is calm in Russia. The triumph of the party in power in the last parliamentary elections tells us this, and continues to high rating president. Nevertheless, a number of political analysts are confident that the silence is deceptive, that this is nothing more than the calm before the imminent storm.

For reference: Valery Solovey, head of the department of public relations at Moscow University state institute international relations(University) Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, political scientist, historian and publicist, enjoys the reputation of a person who knows a little more than mere mortals about what is happening behind the battlements of the Kremlin wall.

An example of Nightingale’s awareness - or insight - can be seen in his post on Facebook, dated August 1 of this year: “The presidential administration will be headed by a particularly trusted person - Anton Vaino... Volodin will become chairman of the State Duma. According to the principle: whatever you choose, you lead.”

Let us recall that the amazed country learned about the resignation of Sergei Ivanov from the post of head of the Presidential Administration and the appointment of Anton Vaino to him on August 12. And about the fact that Volodin, at that time first deputy. head of the Presidential Administration, “recommended” by the president for the post of speaker of the lower house, only on September 23. In short, a conversation about the immediate political future of Russia can hardly do without such an interlocutor.

- Valery Dmitrievich, as far as I understand, asking you where you get information about the plans of the authorities is pointless. I know that you answer this traditional question by saying that you keep the “astral channel of communication with the cosmos” open. Therefore, let's immediately talk about what the stars are saying that is new. First of all: do they confirm the version of early presidential elections?

- Until recently, this was one of the most discussed topics in the corridors of power. However, the meetings of Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko with political scientists were held in the spirit that presidential elections will proceed as normal. However, I would cautiously suggest that early elections are not ruled out. In this case, they may pass next spring. One way or another, in December of this year we will have complete clarity on this matter.

- But is the game even worth the candle? No matter how thorough the preparations for early elections are, the political system will in any case be seriously overloaded. What unpleasant, dangerous for the authorities could happen between the spring of 2017 and the spring of 2018, what will give meaning to this emergency?

- Yes, you are right in your assumptions: the risks can significantly exceed the positive consequences.

But there are two considerations. The first is due to the fact that the socio-economic situation will worsen. This means that public sentiment will worsen. All analysts are talking about this today, including those who serve the authorities. They say that 2018 looks extremely unfavorable in this sense. And, therefore, it is not advisable to wait until 2018.

The second reason: due to certain circumstances - although the reliability of this information is not entirely clear - a situation cannot be ruled out in which the current president will have to be absent from public space for several months in 2017 or appear in it extremely rarely.

As you understand, such a hypothetical situation is very nervous from the point of view of the realities of Russian politics.

- Could you please explain this point? Does the President have health problems?

Let me not explain, I have said enough. And let me emphasize once again: this information is not absolutely reliable. Nevertheless, it cannot be discounted.

- That is, it is logical to hold elections before...

Yes, before this situation arises. And the most mind-blowing idea that has been discussed in this regard is that the current president may not run in this election.

- Because of “certain circumstances”?

Partly due to these circumstances, partly due to geostrategic circumstances. We are talking primarily about relations with the West: as long as Putin is president, it is unlikely that they will be radically improved.

- Even after Trump’s victory?

Nobody today knows what to expect from Trump. Apparently, the Russian leadership really associates certain positive expectations with his victory. But so far there is no reason to believe that after the advent of the Trump administration, relations between Russia and the West will radically warm up.

If we assume that Vladimir Vladimirovich considers improving relations with the West an important national need, then we can easily predict who will become his successor. And a counter-game is already being waged against this potential successor. Because many people don’t like his candidacy. First of all, what is called today the power lobby.

- And who is this peacemaker?

It’s not difficult to guess, since we have little choice. This is deja vu - Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev. The only status liberal on the list of potential successors.

It is still unclear which of the security forces. At first it was said that perhaps this was the current governor of the Tula region, Dyumin.

But it seems the president is disappointed in his military personnel reserve. Disappointment in the ability of these people to engage in, let's say, peaceful politics. They may have been brilliant guards and probably quite good soldiers. But they clearly cannot cope with solving economic and administrative problems. Nevertheless, the security forces expect that they will have their own candidate. But, besides Sergei Ivanov, there is no one yet.

- That is, the removal of Sergei Ivanov from the post of head of the Presidential Administration is not disgrace?

Those statements that Sergei Ivanov made in Lately, indicate that he retains the ambitions and authority to speak on behalf of the head of state. Notice how sharply Ivanov spoke about the possibility of uniting structures related to state security. He called the idea of ​​creating the MGB stupid. In order to make such a statement, you need to have confidence and know how the president feels about it.

- Does this mean that there will be no MGB?

At least for the foreseeable future. The reason is primarily national guard, the creation of which can hardly be considered a completely successful experience. As a result, the Ministry of Internal Affairs has weakened, and the guard exists largely in name only.

It turned out that it was impossible to quickly create such a structure, that the balance was upset, and elite communications were disrupted. For the same reason, the idea of ​​returning the Investigative Committee to the prosecutor’s office, which has been discussed a lot lately, is unlikely to be realized.

There was even more talk about Bastrykin’s resignation, which, however, also never happened. Were the rumors exaggerated?

Not really. You just need to resolve two important issues first. First: save investigative committee as an independent body or merge it with the prosecutor's office? Administrative logic suggests that it would be good to unite, but the experience of the National Guard suggests that it is better not to touch anything.

And the second, following from the first: if the Investigative Committee remains, who will replace Bastrykin? It is known that Poltavchenko, the current governor of St. Petersburg, is vying for this position.

Speaking about the recent information “attack” on Medvedev, it is impossible not to note that the prime minister was also attacked - or even primarily - by Alexei Navalny. Does this mean that Navalny and that part of the opposition that is grouped around him are playing on the side of one of the Kremlin parties?

I am convinced that Alexei Navalny is pursuing his own political goals. He sees himself as a politician with a future, and he has every reason for this. Navalny is interested in compromising the elites, no matter who initiates this. And in some cases, his interests may coincide with the interests of some of the Kremlin groups. By the way, the initiative to intrigue against Medvedev came, as far as I know, from the presidential administration and was supported by the security forces.

How high are Vyacheslav Volodin’s shares quoted today? To some experts, he seems to be the ideal successor.

Volodin is trying to maintain this reputation. He makes promises to his confidential people: everything will be not just good, but wonderful. But gossips they claim that Putin distrusts him. They say that it was Volodin’s ambition that bothered the president.

Many people have complained to Putin about him, including people whom Putin trusts. Very trusting. Either Volodin himself did not hide his far-reaching plans, or his competitors reported on him. More likely the second. And you can guess who “inflated” it.

They said that Volodin had built the following scheme: he leads United Russia to victory in the Duma elections and becomes the head of the Presidential Administration; then ensures the successful re-election of Vladimir Vladimirovich and becomes prime minister and successor.

Whether Volodin himself said this or it was attributed to him, I repeat, is unknown. But one way or another, the president became wary of him.

- And Volodin was “exiled” to the Duma.

Yes, despite big name new position, it’s still difficult to call it an increase.

The power and influence of the head of the Presidential Administration is incomparably greater than that of the speaker of the State Duma. Of course, Volodin is a strong and talented political manager and, under certain circumstances, can increase his political weight. But so far we haven’t seen anything fatal.

In addition, Volodin failed to maintain influence in the administration - Voronova, the former head of the department domestic policy, had to go to the Duma. True, the “Volodinskys” are now gloating over the fact that Kiriyenko failed to install his own man in this post. But gloating can hardly be considered a sign of strength.

- Well, do you think Kiriyenko came to the administration seriously and for a long time?

- Hard to say. They say he didn’t want to go there at all. He was simply persuaded. They prevailed because it was necessary to vacate the position of the head of Rosatom.

By the way, Kiriyenko was not the very first candidate for the post vacated by Volodin. There was another passing candidate. I won’t name him, but he is a very influential person in the media. Extremely influential. However, he managed to talk his way out of it and found reasons that were convincing to the president. But Kiriyenko failed to make an excuse.

But some believe that Kiriyenko, as a talented manager, was involved in solving problems related to the upcoming presidential elections.

I'm not entirely sure about this. There was no need to correct anything in the internal policy area. You can treat Volodin as you like, but everyone recognizes that he was effective in his field. He built a well-oiled machine, and this machine worked. I don’t really understand how Kiriyenko can improve it. And I'm not sure that he himself understands it.

Volodin and Surkov’s “sympathizers” comment on Kiriyenko’s first steps in his new position with sarcasm. There is already talk that he might not have to turn to Volodin for help. By the way, according to rumors, Kiriyenko’s first task is to solve the problem with the governor of the Nizhny Novgorod region, Shantsev.

- What's the problem? Is it difficult to “pick off”?

Come on! The problem is finding a replacement. Nowadays the personnel issue is very acute. You can talk to anyone high-ranking official, and he will complain to you first of all not about the lack of money, but about the lack of people capable of doing their job competently. It is no coincidence, it was not because of a good life that Putin began to appoint his guards as governors.

Recently, rumors have also been actively circulating about a large-scale constitutional reform allegedly being prepared by the authorities, which would involve either the complete abolition of the post of president or a radical reduction of its powers. And, as far as I understand, you also do not exclude this scenario.

Yes, I do not exclude this scenario - under the conditions that I told you: due to some force majeure circumstances, Vladimir Vladimirovich will be forced to go into the shadows for a while.

According to the new model being discussed, the president will perform ritual and representative functions. And perhaps he will try to improve relations with the West. And the real power will be with the head of the State Council, who, naturally, will be Putin. Currently, the State Council is an advisory and non-constitutional body, so constitutional reform will be required.

- That is, Deng Xiaoping's version?

Something like this. A variant of Deng Xiaoping or the Chief Ayatollah of Iran. Under the current arrangement Russian authorities constitutional reform is more a technical task than a substantive one. If the Kremlin wishes, it can be carried out at a Bolshevik pace.

The problem is different - to explain what is happening to the elite and society. After all, such changes are fraught with schizophrenia of mass consciousness. People will no longer understand who is in charge in our country, who is the real king, so to speak. All intra-elite communications that have been built over decades will be disrupted... That is, the risks are colossal. And this is probably the main obstacle to early elections and a change in the model of government.

Summing up parliamentary elections, you wrote a mysterious phrase on your Facebook page: “The electoral path to power is closed for the opposition. Which does not exclude other ways. In about a year, a qualitatively new dynamic will begin in the country and a window of opportunity will open.” What does this mean? Is there a revolution awaiting us?

Revolution is one of the forms of political change that exists in modern world. But what did I mean in this particular case?

There are at least two serious factors that can start in 2017. The first is related to the presidential election. If they are premature, and especially if a new configuration of power is proposed, this will inevitably provoke disorganization of the elites.

The second factor is related to mass sentiment. I believe that they will change faster than is currently expected. Now the changes are not very noticeable, they are not manifested in any social and political behavior. But they accumulate latently. To put it briefly, we're talking about It’s no longer just about society’s rejection of power, but about opposition to it.

There is a kind of axiom in political forecasting: we can predict the entry into a crisis, but not how it will develop and what its results will be. No one in the world has such predictive techniques. However, the onset of the crisis can be predicted with a very high degree of reliability.

And I have a feeling that next year we will enter such a political crisis. Most likely, it will not be immediate, but will take some time to unfold. It is this new dynamic that will open a window of opportunity for everyone who has the will, strength and desire to take advantage of the new situation.

- But, if you believe sociologists, the system still has a huge margin of safety. Don't you believe sociologists?

I believe sociologists. At least some of them. But I know what they're talking about beyond the polls.

I talked with sociologists whom I completely trust. Some of them work at VTsIOM, others at Levada Center. So they say approximately the same thing as I told you: changes are accumulating that will lead to a qualitative change in mass consciousness. This is the first.

Second: the results of surveys today cannot be completely trusted, because people are afraid to tell the truth.

And third: the axiom that everyone involved in political sociology knows is that mass dynamics are unpredictable. Today everyone, answering questions, declares their loyalty, and tomorrow you see these same people protesting in the streets and squares. This has happened more than once in history, including in our recent past.

In this regard, I cannot pass by your new book, the title of which will scare some, but may inspire others: “Fundamentals of the revolutionary struggle in modern era" Considering in it the experience of the so-called “color” revolutions, you include among them Russian events five years ago. You call the opposition's protests an attempt at revolution, which the authorities successfully stopped. How likely is it that Putin's team will cope with new similar challenges?

This depends on two circumstances. Not from the quality of Putin’s team - we know it and are unlikely to change. And firstly, from a coincidence of circumstances, or, to put it extremely simply, from luck or bad luck. And secondly, on the quality of the opposition.

If she is smart enough to understand that this is her only and last chance, that there may not be another, then she will behave differently than at the end of 2011 - beginning of 2012. The “White Ribboners” did not use the unique opportunity that they had at that time: they did not apply the necessary pressure in the right place and at the right time, when the authorities were ready to make serious concessions. Including parliamentary re-elections.

If the oppositionists again do not dare to challenge the authorities, then they will not have to clear the White Sea Canal later. Not figuratively, but literally words.

-Are you exaggerating?

Not at all. This is of course not Stalin's repressions, but the actions of the authorities are becoming tougher and becoming more and more brutal. The repressive machine is becoming more and more total. However, the authorities are also taking a big risk by increasing pressure. Remember Vladimir Vladimirovich’s famous story about an incident that happened to him in childhood. You shouldn’t drive anyone into a corner: not rats, and especially not people.

What will be the main driving forces a new surge of opposition activity? Again angry townspeople, like five years ago, or some other segments of society?

In my opinion, this will be similar to what happened in the USSR at the turn of the 1980-1990s, when angry citizens, the Soviet middle class represented by the engineering and technical workers, protested along with the industrial working class.

The fuse, as I imagine it, will be performances in industrial cities, caused by growing socio-economic problems. Old methods of response in this case will be inadequate. You can easily disperse the hipsters in Moscow, but you won’t be able to deal with Putin’s electorate this way.

It used to be simple - there was money. Now there is no money. Medvedev, by the way, turned out to be the only one in power who told the truth. For which he suffered.

At first, these protests will not be of a political nature; people will not demand democracy. But that doesn't matter. The main thing is that they will create an extremely favorable background for political speeches in the capitals. And, no less important, they will cause disappointment among the elite in the leader.

After all, from the point of view of the elite, Putin’s main task is to “keep” the electorate. As soon as she sees that society is getting out of control, her attitude towards Vladimir Vladimirovich will immediately change. Tension in relations between power groups will increase sharply, and potential lines of division will become actual. The “Kremlin towers” ​​will begin to turn into political factions.

- And the number of democrats in power will quickly begin to grow.

Moreover, they will explain to you that they have always been democrats, have always been on the side of the opposition, and have always extended a helping hand to it.

- About the same as what we observed during the years of perestroika?

Absolutely right. There will be nothing fundamentally new; such processes always follow the same pattern.

MOSCOW, March 2 – RIA Novosti. Warm start March in metropolitan region led to the first spring rain and thunderstorm in New Moscow; next week the temperature could rise to 8 degrees, reports the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia.

“The warm mood of March in the capital region continues. In the zone of an atmospheric front with waves, which in the first half of the day on March 2 moved across the Moscow region and Moscow, real rain fell. From 10 to 11:30 a thunderstorm was observed on the radar screens over New Moscow. Lightning "The discharges were also recorded by lightning direction finders. Perhaps some of the most attentive townspeople managed to hear the first clap of thunder," the message says.

“For the beginning of March, thunderstorms are uncharacteristic; such a phenomenon happens once every 10-15 years. A thunderstorm was observed in the area of ​​the Vnukovo airport, on the territory of New Moscow, at about 11 a.m.,” said Tatyana Pozdnyakova, chief specialist of the Meteorological Bureau of Moscow and the Moscow Region. According to her, on Thursday the temperature exceeded the climate norm by eight degrees, and the cold atmospheric front, which came to the Moscow region, caused the formation of powerful cumulus clouds. “Against this background, the conditions for a thunderstorm arose,” the specialist said. At the same time, according to Pozdnyakova, thunderstorms are no longer expected in Moscow in the coming days.

According to the weather department, in the coming days the average daily temperature will exceed the norm by 8-10 degrees. At the same time, maximum daytime temperatures will be close to records. However, the temperature at the surface of the earth may still be negative and therefore it is worth remembering for now about icy conditions, which will be observed in some places.

The Hydrometeorological Center reported that on Friday in the capital at night there will be light precipitation in places and there will be icy conditions. The temperature in Moscow is minus 1 - plus 1, in the region minus 2 - plus 3. Light precipitation during the day, the temperature in Moscow is 3-5 degrees, in the region 0 - plus 5 degrees. Wind 5-10 meters per second, gusts up to 15 meters per second in places. "On Saturday there will be light precipitation in places. At night in Moscow 0 - plus 2, in the region minus 2 - plus 3. During the day in Moscow 3-5 degrees, in the region 0 - plus 5. West, southwest wind 5-10 meters per second On Sunday night there will be light precipitation in places, in Moscow plus 1-3, in the region minus 2 - plus 3. During the day, light rain in places, in Moscow plus 5-7, in the region 2-7. Wind south-west, south 5-10 meters per second," the weather service said.

"At the beginning of a new week warm weather will continue. On Monday there will be light rain in places, at night 0 - plus 5, in the daytime 2-7. On Tuesday, no precipitation, at night 0 - plus 5, during the day the air will warm up to 3-8 degrees," the Hydrometeorological Center added.

Original taken from a_01z V

The article has already been removed from the Moskovsky Komsomolets website. This means that the right things are stated in it. Must read!

For reference: Valery Solovey, Head of the Department of Public Relations, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, a political scientist, historian and publicist, enjoys a reputation as a person who knows a little more than mere mortals about what is happening behind the battlements of the Kremlin wall.
An example of Nightingale’s awareness—or insight—is his Facebook post dated August 1 of this year: “ Presidential Administration will be headed by a specially trusted person - Anton Vaino...Volodin will become Chairman of the State Duma. According to the principle: whatever you choose, you lead.”
Let us remind you that about the resignation of Sergei IvanovThe astonished country learned from the post of head of the Presidential Administration and the appointment of Anton Vaino to it on August 12. And about the fact that Volodin, at that time first deputy. head of the Presidential Administration, “recommended” by the president for the post of speaker of the lower house, only on September 23. In short, a conversation about the immediate political future of Russia can hardly do without such an interlocutor.
— Valery Dmitrievich, as far as I understand, asking you where you get information about the plans of the authorities is pointless. I know that you answer this traditional question by saying that you keep the “astral channel of communication with the cosmos” open. Therefore, let's immediately talk about what the stars are saying that is new. First of all: do they confirm the version of early presidential elections?
“Until recently, this was one of the most discussed topics in the corridors of power. However, the meetings of Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko with political scientists were held in the spirit that the presidential elections would be held as usual. However, I would cautiously suggest that early elections are not ruled out. In this case, they may pass next spring. One way or another, in December of this year we will have complete clarity on this matter.
- But is the game even worth the candle? No matter how thorough the preparations for early elections are, the political system will in any case be seriously overloaded. What unpleasant, dangerous for the authorities could happen between the spring of 2017 and the spring of 2018, what will give meaning to this emergency?
- Yes, you are right in your assumptions: the risks can significantly exceed the positive consequences.
But there are two considerations. The first is due to the fact that the socio-economic situation will worsen. This means that public sentiment will worsen. All analysts are talking about this today, including those who serve the authorities. They say that 2018 looks extremely unfavorable in this sense. And, therefore, it is not advisable to wait until 2018.
The second reason: due to certain circumstances - although the reliability of this information is not entirely clear - a situation cannot be ruled out in which the current president will have to be absent from public space for several months in 2017 or appear in it extremely rarely.
As you understand, such a hypothetical situation is very nervous from the point of view of the realities of Russian politics.
— Could you please explain this point? Does the President have health problems?
- Let me not explain, I've said enough. And let me emphasize once again: this information is not absolutely reliable. Nevertheless, it cannot be discounted.
— That is, it is logical to hold elections before...
- Yes, before this situation arises. And the most mind-blowing idea that has been discussed in this regard is that the current president may not run in this election.
- Because of “certain circumstances”?
- Partly due to these circumstances, partly due to geostrategic circumstances.
Putin is convinced that as long as he is president, relations with the West will not be able to radically improve. Accordingly, in order to change this situation, it is necessary for another person to speak on the Russian side at the negotiations.
If we assume that Vladimir Vladimirovich considers improving relations with the West a national need, then we can easily predict who will become his successor. And a counter-game is already being waged against this potential successor. Because many people don’t like his candidacy. First of all, what is called today the power lobby.
- And who is this peacemaker?
- It’s not difficult to guess, since we have little choice. This is deja vu - Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev . The only status liberal on the list of potential successors.
It is not yet clear which of the security forces. At first it was said that perhaps this was the current governor of the Tula region, Dyumin.
But the president seems to be disappointed in his security personnel reserve. Disappointment in the ability of these people to engage in, let's say, peaceful politics. They may have been brilliant guards and probably quite good soldiers. But they clearly cannot cope with solving economic and administrative problems. Nevertheless, the security forces expect that they will have their own candidate. But, besides Sergei Ivanov, there is no one yet.
— So, the removal of Sergei Ivanov from the post of head of the Presidential Administration is not a disgrace?
“The statements that Sergei Ivanov has made recently indicate that he retains the ambitions and authority to speak on behalf of the head of state. Notice how sharply Ivanov spoke about the possibility of uniting structures related to state security. He called the idea of ​​creating the MGB stupid. In order to make such a statement, you need to have confidence and know how the president feels about it.
— Does this mean that there will be no MGB?
- At least for the foreseeable future. The reason is primarily the National Guard, the creation of which can hardly be considered a completely successful experience. Ministry of Internal Affairs as a result, it has weakened, and the guard exists largely in name only.
It turned out that it was impossible to quickly create such a structure, that the balance was upset, and elite communications were disrupted. For the same reason, the idea of ​​returning Investigative Committee to the prosecutor's office, which has been talked about a lot lately.
— They talked even more about Bastrykin’s resignation, which, however, still doesn’t happen. Were the rumors exaggerated?
- Not really. You just need to resolve two important issues first. First: maintain the Investigative Committee as an independent body or merge it with the prosecutor's office? Administrative logic suggests that it would be good to unite, but the experience of the Russian Guard suggests that it is better not to touch anything.
And the second, following from the first: if the Investigative Committee remains, who will replace Bastrykin? It is known that Poltavchenko, the current governor of St. Petersburg, is vying for this position.
— Speaking about the recent information “attack” on Medvedev, it is impossible not to note that the prime minister was attacked, including - or even primarily - Alexey Navalny . Does this mean that Navalny and that part of the opposition that is grouped around him are playing on the side of one of the Kremlin parties?
— I am convinced that Alexei Navalny is pursuing his own political goals. He sees himself as a politician with a future, and he has every reason for this. Navalny is interested in compromising the elites, no matter who initiates this. And in some cases, his interests may coincide with the interests of some of the Kremlin groups. By the way, the initiative to intrigue against Medvedev came, as far as I know, from the presidential administration and was supported by the security forces.
— How high are the shares quoted today? Vyacheslav Volodin ? To some experts, he seems to be the ideal successor.
- Volodin is trying to maintain this reputation. He makes promises to his confidential people: everything will be not just good, but wonderful. But evil tongues claim that Putin distrusts him. They say that it was Volodin’s ambition that bothered the president.
Many people have complained to Putin about him, including people whom Putin trusts. Very trusting. Either Volodin himself did not hide his far-reaching plans, or his competitors reported on him. More likely the second. And you can guess who “inflated” it.
They said that Volodin had built the following scheme: he brings United Russia to victory in the Duma elections and becomes the head of the Presidential Administration; then ensures the successful re-election of Vladimir Vladimirovich and becomes prime minister and successor.
Whether Volodin himself said this or it was attributed to him, I repeat, is unknown. But one way or another, the president became wary of him.
— And Volodin was “exiled” to the Duma.
- Yes, despite the loud name of the new position, it’s still difficult to call it a promotion.
The power and influence of the head of the Presidential Administration is incomparably greater than that of the speaker of the State Duma. Of course, Volodin is a strong and talented political manager and, under certain circumstances, can increase his political weight. But so far we haven’t seen anything fatal.
In addition, Volodin failed to maintain influence in the administration - Voronova, the former head of the internal policy department, had to leave for the Duma. True, the “Volodinskys” are now gloating over the fact that Kiriyenko failed to install his own man in this post. But gloating can hardly be considered a sign of strength.
— Well, do you think Kiriyenko came to the administration seriously and for a long time?
- Hard to say. They say he didn’t want to go there at all. He was simply persuaded. They prevailed because it was necessary to vacate the position of the head of Rosatom.
By the way, Kiriyenko was not the very first candidate for the post vacated by Volodin. There was another passing candidate. I won’t name him, but he is a very influential person in the media. Extremely influential. However, he managed to talk his way out of it and found reasons that were convincing to the president. But Kiriyenko failed to make an excuse.
— But some believe that Kiriyenko, as a talented manager, was involved in solving problems related to the upcoming presidential elections.
- I'm not entirely sure about this. There was no need to correct anything in the internal policy area. You can treat Volodin as you like, but everyone recognizes that he was effective in his field. He built a well-oiled machine, and this machine worked. I don’t really understand how Kiriyenko can improve it. And I'm not sure that he himself understands it.
Volodin and Surkov’s “sympathizers” comment on Kiriyenko’s first steps in his new position with sarcasm. There is already talk that he might not have to turn to Volodin for help. By the way, according to rumors, Kiriyenko’s first task is to solve the problem with the governor of the Nizhny Novgorod region, Shantsev.
- What's the problem? Is it difficult to “pick off”?
- Well, what are you talking about! The problem is finding a replacement. Nowadays the personnel issue is very acute. You can talk to any high-ranking official, and he will complain to you, first of all, not about the lack of money, but about the lack of people capable of doing their job competently. It is no coincidence, it was not because of a good life that Putin began to appoint his guards as governors.
— Recently, rumors have also been actively circulating about a large-scale constitutional reform allegedly being prepared by the authorities, which would involve either the complete abolition of the post of president or a radical reduction of its powers. And, as far as I understand, you also do not exclude this scenario.
- Yes, I do not exclude this scenario - under the conditions that I told you: due to some force majeure circumstances, Vladimir Vladimirovich will be forced to go into the shadows for a while.
According to the new model being discussed, the president will perform ritual and representative functions. And perhaps he will try to improve relations with the West. And the real power will be with the head of the State Council, who, naturally, will be Putin. Currently, the State Council is an advisory and non-constitutional body, so constitutional reform will be required.
— That is, Deng Xiaoping’s version?
- Approximately so. A variant of Deng Xiaoping or the Chief Ayatollah of Iran. Given the current structure of the Russian government, constitutional reform is more a technical task than a substantive one. If the Kremlin wishes, it can be carried out at a Bolshevik pace.
The problem is different - to explain what is happening to the elite and society. After all, such changes are fraught with schizophrenia of mass consciousness. People will no longer understand who is in charge in our country, who is the real king, so to speak. All intra-elite communications that have been built over decades will be disrupted... That is, the risks are colossal. And this is probably the main obstacle to early elections and a change in the model of government.
— Summing up the results of the parliamentary elections, you wrote a mysterious phrase on your Facebook page: “The electoral path to power is closed for the opposition. Which does not exclude other ways. In about a year, a qualitatively new dynamic will begin in the country and a window of opportunity will open.” What does this mean? Is there a revolution awaiting us?
- Revolution is one of the forms of political change that exists in the modern world. But what did I mean in this particular case?
There are at least two serious factors that can start in 2017. The first is related to the presidential election. If they are premature, and especially if a new configuration of power is proposed, this will inevitably provoke disorganization of the elites.
The second factor is related to mass sentiment. I believe that they will change faster than is currently expected. Now the changes are not very noticeable, they are not manifested in any social and political behavior. But they accumulate latently. To put it briefly, we are no longer just talking about society’s rejection of power, but about opposing it.
There is a kind of axiom in political forecasting: we can predict the entry into a crisis, but not how it will develop and what its results will be. No one in the world has such predictive techniques. However, the onset of the crisis can be predicted with a very high degree of reliability.
And I have a feeling that next year we will enter such a political crisis. Most likely, it will not be immediate, but will take some time to unfold. It is this new dynamic that will open a window of opportunity for everyone who has the will, strength and desire to take advantage of the new situation.
- But, if you believe sociologists, the system still has a huge margin of safety. Don't you believe sociologists?
- I believe sociologists. At least some of them. But I know what they're talking about beyond the polls.
I talked with sociologists whom I completely trust. Some of them work at VTsIOM, someone at Levada Center. So they say approximately the same thing as I told you: changes are accumulating that will lead to a qualitative change in the mass consciousness. This is the first.
Second: the results of surveys today cannot be completely trusted, because people are afraid to tell the truth.
And third: the axiom that everyone involved in political sociology knows is that mass dynamics are unpredictable. Today everyone, answering questions, declares their loyalty, and tomorrow you see these same people protesting in the streets and squares. This has happened more than once in history, including in our recent past.
— In this regard, I cannot pass by your new book, the title of which will scare some, but may inspire others: “Fundamentals of revolutionary struggle in the modern era.” Considering the experience of the so-called “color” revolutions, you include the Russian events of five years ago among them. You call the opposition's protests an attempt at revolution, which the authorities successfully stopped. How likely is it that Putin's team will cope with new similar challenges?
- It depends on two circumstances. Not from the quality of Putin’s team - we know it and are unlikely to change. And firstly, from a coincidence of circumstances, or, to put it extremely simply, from luck or bad luck. And secondly, on the quality of the opposition.
If she is smart enough to understand that this is her only and last chance, that there may not be another, then she will behave differently than at the end of 2011 - beginning of 2012. The “White Ribboners” did not use the unique opportunity that they had at that time: they did not apply the necessary pressure in the right place and at the right time, when the authorities were ready to make serious concessions. Including parliamentary re-elections.
If the oppositionists again do not dare to challenge the authorities, then they will not have to clear the White Sea Canal later. Not in the figurative, but in the literal sense of the word.
—Are you exaggerating?
- Not at all. These, of course, are not Stalinist repressions, but the actions of the authorities are becoming tougher and more brutal. The repressive machine is becoming more and more total. However, the authorities are also taking a big risk by increasing pressure. Remember Vladimir Vladimirovich’s famous story about an incident that happened to him in childhood. You shouldn’t drive anyone into a corner: not rats, and especially not people.
— What will be the main driving forces of a new surge of opposition activity? Again angry townspeople, like five years ago, or some other segments of society?
- In my opinion, this will be similar to what happened in the USSR in the late 1980s, when angry citizens, the Soviet middle class represented by the engineering and technical workers, protested along with the industrial working class.
The fuse, as I imagine it, will be performances in industrial cities, caused by growing socio-economic problems. Old methods of response in this case will be inadequate. You can easily disperse the hipsters in Moscow, but you won’t be able to deal with Putin’s electorate this way.
It used to be simple - there was money. Now there is no money. Medvedev, by the way, turned out to be the only one in power who told the truth. For which he suffered.
At first, these protests will not be of a political nature; people will not demand democracy. But that doesn't matter. The main thing is that they will create an extremely favorable background for political speeches in the capitals. And, no less important, they will cause disappointment among the elite in the leader.
After all, from the point of view of the elite, Putin’s main task is to “keep” the electorate. As soon as she sees that society is getting out of control, her attitude towards Vladimir Vladimirovich will immediately change. Tension in relations between power groups will increase sharply, and potential lines of division will become actual. The “Kremlin towers” ​​will begin to turn into political factions.
“And the number of democrats in power will quickly begin to grow.”
“Moreover, they will explain to you that they have always been democrats, have always been on the side of the opposition, have always extended a helping hand to it.
— About the same as what we saw in the late 1980s?
- Absolutely right. There will be nothing fundamentally new; such processes always follow the same pattern.

When will it get warm?

IN European Russia The weather turned bad again. The night before in the Tula region in the city of Donskoy there was heavy rain. The precipitation was accompanied by bright lightning strikes. Unexpectedly early, a thunderstorm thundered in Smolensk. Note that thunderstorms can only occur in powerful cumulonimbus clouds with a height of more than 8 kilometers. It is in this thickness of the cloud mass that an electric potential can accumulate that can break through the thickness of the dielectric, that is, the air separating the lower boundary of the clouds from the ground. Now such clouds can only form in the zone of the atmospheric front. Earth's surface it is still too cold and cannot become a source of a powerful upward flow.

April thunderstorms on the Russian Plain are an infrequent phenomenon. At least that's how it was before the era began. global warming. IN middle lane In Russia, thunderclaps could be heard in April approximately once every 5 years. In this century, the statistics have changed. In the first ten days of April, thunderstorms were observed in 2013 and 2016. However, 2017 was distinguished not only by an April thunderstorm, but also by the earliest April thunderstorm! Thunderstorms were provoked by the atmospheric front of a cyclone, which brought warm air to the Russian Plain in the first days of April.

Now this whirlwind has moved to Southern Urals. However, the flow of Atlantic air entering the center of the country has not decreased. Another cyclone intervened in the matter - the one that is now moving along the Arctic coast of Russia. The cloud fields of this cyclone will bring precipitation mainly to the northern half of the European part of Russia. Pomorie will be at the epicenter of bad weather. Here in some places up to 15 mm of precipitation will fall per day, which is about half the monthly norm. In the middle latitudes, the invasion of warm and humid air will respond with the formation of fogs in the morning and night hours.

Fogs began to form the day before - weather conditions at Khrabrovo airport worsened. Planes from St. Petersburg, Minsk and Moscow flying to Kaliningrad on evening flights were unable to land due to fog and returned to their departure airports. Haze also shrouded the capital region. Visibility the day before in some places deteriorated to 200 meters. Traffic on the roads has become difficult.

In the capital region, April is considered the foggiest month of spring. For example, at the VDNH weather station in March, 1 foggy day is recorded, and visibility is limited for 5 hours. In April there can be up to two fogs per month and last over 6 hours. And in May the frequency and duration of fogs begins to decline again. Along with fog and precipitation, warm air will continue to flow into the European territory of Russia. In the north, temperatures will be several degrees above normal in the coming days. Today and tomorrow the weather in the city will be cloudy and windy, there will be rain and snow, +4...+5° during the day. On Thursday the precipitation will weaken and the air temperature may reach +6°. From Friday the weather will get worse, snow and rain will resume, the temperature will drop to +3°.