The Earth's climate is changing rapidly. Scientists are trying to figure out what's causing climate change by gathering evidence to rule out the wrong causes and figure out who is responsible.

Based on over a hundred scientific research It is clear that humans are responsible for most of the climate change over the past 150 years.

People influence climate change

Humans are not the only factor influencing climate change. Weather has changed throughout Earth's history, long before humans evolved. The sun is the main climate factor. Roughly speaking, global temperatures will increase when more energy from the Sun enters the atmosphere than is returned to space through the atmosphere. The Earth cools at any time if more energy is returned to space than comes from the Sun, while humans can influence this balance. There are also other factors: from continental drift and changes in the shape of the Earth's orbit to changes in the activity and phenomena of the Sun, such as the El Niño process (fluctuations in water temperature in the equatorial part Pacific Ocean), all of which can affect the climate. Given the rate of climate change today, scientists can rule out some causes that are happening too slowly to explain current climate change, while others have short cycles rather than long-term trends in influencing the climate of a part of the planet. Scientists are aware of these factors and can take them into account when assessing human-caused weather changes.

Human influence on climate change was first described more than a hundred years ago, based on research in the 1850s by English physicist John Tyndall.

Light from the Sun heats the Earth's surface, which then emits energy in the form of infrared radiation, which is felt on a sunny day. Greenhouse gases such as water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2) absorb this radiated energy, warming the atmosphere and surface. This process causes the Earth's temperature to become warmer than if it were heated only by direct sunlight.

For more than 100 years, scientists have considered humans as the main cause of current climate change. At the turn of the 20th century, Swedish physical chemist Svante Arrhenius theorized that humans, by burning coal, had increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and enhanced the natural warming effect, causing the atmosphere to warm more than it would have otherwise. natural processes.

When people burn gasoline, coal, natural gas, and other fuels to generate electricity or drive a car, they release significant amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. When a liter of gasoline is burned, the volume of CO2 released will be 2 kg. Greenhouse gases are emitted from power plants and cars, landfills, farms and cleared forests, and through other subtle processes.

Since 1950, scientists have begun to methodically measure the global increase in carbon dioxide. They have since confirmed that the increase is caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels (and through other human activities such as land clearing). This increase, as well as changes in CO2, is added to the atmosphere and provides a “smoking gun” that shows that humans are responsible for increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Introduction

1. Causes of climate change

2. The concept and essence of the greenhouse effect

3. Global warming and human influence on it

4. Consequences of global warming

5. Measures necessary to prevent global warming

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

The world is getting warmer, and humanity is largely responsible for it, experts say. But many factors influencing climate change have not yet been studied, and others have not been studied at all.

Some dry places in Africa have become drier over the past 25 years. The rare lakes that bring water to people are drying up. Sandy winds are intensifying. The rains stopped there in the 1970s. The problem is becoming more and more acute drinking water. According to computer models, such areas will continue to dry out and become completely uninhabitable.

Coal mining is widespread throughout the planet. Huge amounts of carbon dioxide (CO 2) are released into the atmosphere when coal is burned. As developing countries follow in the footsteps of their industrial neighbors, the volume of CO 2 will double during the 21st century.

Most experts, studying the complexity of the Earth's climate system, associate the increase in global temperature and future climate changes with an increase in the level of CO 2 in the atmospheric air.

Life has flourished on the planet for about four billion years. During this time, climate fluctuations were radical, from the Ice Age - which lasted 10,000 years - to an era of rapid warming. With each change, an indefinite number of species of life forms changed, evolved and survived. Others weakened or simply died out.

Now many experts believe that humanity is endangering the world's ecological system due to global warming caused by the so-called greenhouse effect. The evaporation of civilization's products in the form of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) trapped enough heat reflected from the Earth's surface to cause the average temperature at the Earth's surface to rise by half a degree Celsius during the 20th century. If this direction of modern industry continues, the climate system will change everywhere - melting ice, rising sea levels, destruction of plants by droughts, turning areas into deserts, moving green areas.

But this may not be the case. The planet's climate depends on a combination of many factors, interacting individually with each other and in complex ways that are not yet fully understood. It is possible that the warming observed over the past century was due to natural fluctuations, although its rates were significantly higher than those observed during the last ten centuries. Moreover, computer simulations may not be accurate.

However, in 1995, after years of intensive study, the International Conference on Climate Change, sponsored by the United Nations, tentatively concluded that "much evidence suggests that human impacts on global climate are enormous." The extent of these influences, as experts note, is unknown, since a key factor has not been determined, including the degree to which clouds and oceans influence changes in global temperature. It may take a decade or more of additional research to rule out these uncertainties.

In the meantime, much is already known. And although the specific circumstances of human economic activity remain unclear, our ability to change the composition of the atmosphere is undeniable.

The purpose of this work is to study the problem of climate change on Earth.

Objectives of this work:

1. study the causes of climate change;

2. consider the concept and essence of the greenhouse effect;

3. define the concept of “global warming” and show the influence of humanity on it;

4. show the consequences awaiting humanity as a result of global warming; 5. consider the measures needed to prevent global warming.

1. CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

What is global climate change and why is it often called "global warming"?

One cannot but agree that the climate on Earth is changing and this is becoming a global problem for all humanity. The fact of global climate change is confirmed by scientific observations and is not disputed by most scientists. And yet there are constant discussions around this topic. Some use the term “global warming” and make apocalyptic predictions. Others predict the onset of a new “ice age” - and also make apocalyptic predictions. Still others consider climate change to be natural, and the evidence from both sides about the inevitability of the catastrophic consequences of climate change is controversial... Let's try to figure it out....

What evidence is there of climate change?

They are well known to everyone (this is noticeable even without instruments): an increase in average global temperatures (milder winters, hotter and drier summer months), melting glaciers and rising sea levels, as well as increasingly frequent and increasingly destructive typhoons and hurricanes, floods in Europe and droughts in Australia...(see also “5 climate prophecies that came true”). And in some places, for example, in Antarctica, cooling is observed.

If the climate has changed before, why is it a problem now?

Indeed, the climate of our planet is constantly changing. Everyone knows about ice ages (they are small and large), the global flood, etc. According to geological data, the average global temperature in different geological periods ranged from +7 to +27 degrees Celsius. Now the average temperature on Earth is approximately +14 o C and is still quite far from the maximum. So, what are scientists, heads of state and the public concerned about? In short, the concern is that in addition to the natural causes of climate change that have always existed, another factor is being added - anthropogenic (the result of human activity), the influence of which on climate change, according to a number of researchers, is becoming stronger every year.

What are the causes of climate change?

Home driving force climate is the Sun. For example, uneven heating of the earth's surface (stronger near the equator) is one of the main causes of winds and ocean currents, and periods of increased solar activity are accompanied by warming and magnetic storms.

In addition, climate is affected by changes in the Earth's orbit, its magnetic field, the size of continents and oceans, and volcanic eruptions. All these are natural causes of climate change. Until recently, they, and only they, determined climate change, including the beginning and end of long-term climate cycles such as ice ages. Solar and volcanic activity can explain half of the temperature changes before 1950 (solar activity leads to higher temperatures, volcanic activity leads to lower temperatures).

Recently, one more factor has been added to natural factors - anthropogenic, i.e. caused by human activity. The main anthropogenic impact is the strengthening of the greenhouse effect, the influence of which on climate change in the last two centuries is 8 times higher than the influence of changes in solar activity.

2. CONCEPT AND ESSENCE OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT

The greenhouse effect is the delay of the planet's thermal radiation by the Earth's atmosphere. Any of us has observed the greenhouse effect: in greenhouses or greenhouses the temperature is always higher than outside. The same thing is observed on a global scale: solar energy, passing through the atmosphere, heats the surface of the Earth, but is emitted by the Earth thermal energy cannot escape back into space because the Earth's atmosphere traps it, acting like polyethylene in a greenhouse: it transmits short light waves from the Sun to the Earth and traps long thermal (or infrared) waves emitted by the Earth's surface. A greenhouse effect occurs. The greenhouse effect occurs due to the presence of gases in the Earth's atmosphere that have the ability to trap long waves. They are called “greenhouse” or “greenhouse” gases.

Greenhouse gases have been present in the atmosphere in small quantities (about 0.1%) since its formation. This amount was enough to maintain the Earth's thermal balance at a level suitable for life due to the greenhouse effect. This is the so-called natural greenhouse effect; if it weren’t for it, the average temperature of the Earth’s surface would be 30°C lower, i.e. not +14° C, as it is now, but -17° C.

The natural greenhouse effect poses no threat to either the Earth or humanity, since total greenhouse gases were maintained at the same level due to the cycle of nature, moreover, we owe our lives to it.

But an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to an increase in the greenhouse effect and disruption heat balance Earth. This is exactly what happened in the last two centuries of civilization. Coal-fired power plants, car exhaust, factory chimneys and other human-made sources of pollution emit about 22 billion tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere each year.

What gases are called “greenhouse” gases?

The most well-known and widespread greenhouse gases include water vapor(H 2 O), carbon dioxide(CO2), methane(CH 4) and laughing gas or nitrous oxide (N 2 O). These are direct greenhouse gases. Most of them are formed during the combustion of organic fuel.

In addition, there are two more groups of direct greenhouse gases, these are halocarbons And sulfur hexafluoride(SF6). Their emissions into the atmosphere are associated with modern technologies and industrial processes (electronics and refrigeration). Their quantity in the atmosphere is absolutely negligible, but their influence on the greenhouse effect (the so-called global warming potential/GWP) is tens of thousands of times stronger than CO 2 .

Water vapor is the main greenhouse gas, responsible for more than 60% of the natural greenhouse effect. An anthropogenic increase in its concentration in the atmosphere has not yet been observed. However, an increase in the Earth's temperature, caused by other factors, increases the evaporation of ocean water, which can lead to an increase in the concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere and to an increase in the greenhouse effect. On the other hand, clouds in the atmosphere reflect direct sunlight, which reduces the energy input to the Earth and, accordingly, reduces the greenhouse effect.

Carbon dioxide is the best known of the greenhouse gases. Natural sources of CO 2 are volcanic emissions and the vital activity of organisms. Anthropogenic sources include the combustion of fossil fuels (including forest fires), as well as a number of industrial processes (for example, cement production, glass production). Carbon dioxide, according to most researchers, is primarily responsible for global warming caused by the greenhouse effect. CO 2 concentrations have increased by more than 30% over two centuries of industrialization and are correlated with changes in average global temperature.

Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. Released due to leakage during coal mining and natural gas, from pipelines, during biomass combustion, in landfills (as a component of biogas), as well as in agriculture (cattle breeding, rice farming), etc. Livestock farming, fertilizer use, coal combustion and other sources produce about 250 million tons of methane per year. The amount of methane in the atmosphere is small, but its greenhouse effect, or global warming potential (GWP), is 21 times greater than CO 2.

Nitrous oxide is the third most important greenhouse gas: its impact is 310 times stronger than CO 2, but it is found in very small quantities in the atmosphere. It enters the atmosphere as a result of the vital activity of plants and animals, as well as during the production and use of mineral fertilizers, and the operation of chemical industry enterprises.

Halocarbons (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) are gases created to replace ozone-depleting substances. Mainly used in refrigeration equipment. They have exceptionally high coefficients of influence on the greenhouse effect: 140-11,700 times higher than that of CO 2. Their emissions (release into the environment) are small, but are increasing rapidly.

Sulfur hexafluoride – its release into the atmosphere is associated with electronics and the production of insulating materials. While it is small, the volume is constantly increasing. The global warming potential is 23,900 units.

3. GLOBAL WARMING AND HUMAN IMPACT ON IT

Global warming is a gradual increase in the average temperature on our planet caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere.

According to direct climate observations (temperature changes over the past two hundred years), average temperatures on Earth have increased, and although the reasons for this increase are still the subject of debate, one of the most widely discussed is the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. An anthropogenic increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere disrupts the natural thermal balance of the planet, enhances the greenhouse effect, and, as a result, causes global warming.

This is a slow and gradual process. Thus, over the past 100 years the average temperature The Earth increased by only 1 o C. It would seem not much. What, then, is alarming the world community and forcing the governments of many countries to take measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?

Firstly, this was enough to cause the melting of polar ice and a rise in sea levels with all the ensuing consequences.

And secondly, some processes are easier to start than to stop. For example, as a result of the melting of permafrost rocks in the subarctic, huge amounts of methane enter the atmosphere, which further enhances the greenhouse effect. And the desalination of the ocean due to melting ice will cause changes warm current Gulf Stream, which will affect the climate of Europe. Thus, global warming will trigger changes that will in turn accelerate climate change. We started a chain reaction...

How big is the human impact on global warming?

The idea of ​​humanity's significant contribution to the greenhouse effect (and therefore to global warming) is supported by most governments, scientists, public organizations and the media, but is not yet a definitively established truth.

Some argue that: the concentration of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere since the pre-industrial period (since 1750) has increased by 34% and 160%, respectively. Moreover, it has not reached this level for hundreds of thousands of years. This is clearly related to the increase in consumption of fuel resources and the development of industry. And it is confirmed by the coincidence of the graph of the increase in carbon dioxide concentration with the graph of the increase in temperature.

Others object: 50-60 times more carbon dioxide is dissolved in the surface layer of the World Ocean than in the atmosphere. Compared to this, the human impact is simply negligible. In addition, the ocean has the ability to absorb CO 2 and thereby compensate for human impacts.

However, recently more and more evidence has emerged in favor of the influence of human activities on global climate change. Here are just a few of them.

1. The southern part of the world's oceans has lost its ability to absorb significant quantities carbon dioxide, and this will further accelerate global warming on the planet

2. The flow of heat coming to the Earth from the Sun has been decreasing in the last five years, but the earth is experiencing not cooling, but warming...

How much will the temperature rise?

According to some climate change scenarios, by 2100 the average global temperature could rise by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius - unless steps are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, periods of hot weather may become longer and more extreme in temperature. However, the development of the situation will vary greatly depending on the region of the Earth, and these differences are extremely difficult to predict. For example, for Europe, a not very long period of cooling is predicted at first due to the slowdown and possible change in the Gulf Stream.

4. CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBAL WARMING

Global warming will greatly affect the lives of some animals. For example, polar bears, seals and penguins will be forced to change their habitats because polar ice will disappear. Many species of animals and plants will also disappear without having time to adapt to the rapidly changing environment. 250 million years ago, global warming killed three-quarters of all life on Earth

Global warming will change the climate on a global scale. An increase in the number of climate disasters, an increase in the number of floods due to hurricanes, desertification and a reduction in summer precipitation by 15-20% in the main agricultural areas, an increase in ocean levels and temperatures, and the boundaries of natural zones are expected to shift to the north.

Moreover, according to some forecasts, global warming will cause the onset of the Little Ice Age. In the 19th century, the cause of such cooling was volcanic eruptions, in our century the cause is already different - desalination of the world's oceans as a result of melting glaciers

How will global warming affect humans?

In the short term: shortage of drinking water, increase in the number infectious diseases, problems in agriculture due to droughts, an increase in the number of deaths due to floods, hurricanes, heat and drought.

The biggest blow may fall on the poorest countries, which are least responsible for exacerbating the problem and least prepared for climate change. Warming and rising temperatures may ultimately reverse all the hard work of previous generations.

Destruction of established and customary agricultural systems under the influence of droughts, irregular rainfall, etc. could actually bring about 600 million people to the brink of famine. By 2080, 1.8 billion people will experience severe water shortages. And in Asia and China, due to melting glaciers and changes in precipitation patterns, an environmental crisis may occur.

An increase in temperature by 1.5-4.5°C will lead to a rise in sea level by 40-120 cm (according to some calculations, up to 5 meters). This means the inundation of many small islands and flooding in coastal areas. About 100 million people will be in flood-prone areas, more than 300 million people will be forced to migrate, and some states will disappear (for example, the Netherlands, Denmark, part of Germany).

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the health of hundreds of millions of people could be at risk as a result of the spread of malaria (due to an increase in the number of mosquitoes in flooded areas), intestinal infections (due to disruption of water supply systems), etc.

In the long term, this may lead to the next stage of human evolution. Our ancestors faced a similar problem when the temperature rose sharply by 10°C after the Ice Age, but this is what led to the creation of our civilization.

Experts do not have accurate data on what humanity’s contribution to the observed increase in temperatures on Earth is and what the chain reaction may be.

The exact relationship between rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising temperatures is also unknown. This is one reason temperature forecasts vary so widely. And this gives food to skeptics: some scientists consider the problem of global warming to be somewhat exaggerated, as are the data on the increase in average temperature on Earth.

Scientists do not have a consensus on what the final balance of positive and negative effects of climate change may be, and according to which scenario the situation will develop further.

Some scientists believe that several factors may reduce the effect of global warming: As temperatures rise, plant growth will accelerate, which will allow plants to take more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Others believe that the possible negative consequences of global climate change are underestimated:

· droughts, cyclones, storms and floods will become more frequent,

An increase in the temperature of the world's oceans also causes an increase in the strength of hurricanes,

· the rate of glacier melting and sea level rise will also be faster…. And this is confirmed by the latest research data.

· Already, the ocean level has increased by 4 cm instead of the predicted 2 cm, the rate of glacier melting has increased 3 times (the thickness of the ice cover has decreased by 60-70 cm, and the area of ​​non-melting ice of the Arctic Ocean has decreased by 14% in 2005 alone).

· It is possible that human activity has already doomed the ice cover to complete disappearance, which could result in a several times greater increase in sea level (by 5-7 meters instead of 40-60 cm).

· Moreover, according to some data, global warming may occur much faster than previously thought due to the release of carbon dioxide from ecosystems, including from the World Ocean.

· And finally, we must not forget that global warming may be followed by global cooling.

However, whatever the scenario, everything suggests that we should stop playing dangerous games with the planet and reduce our impact on it. It is better to overestimate the danger than to underestimate it. It’s better to do everything possible to prevent it than to bite yourself later. He who is forewarned is forearmed.

5. MEASURES NEEDED TO PREVENT GLOBAL WARMING

The international community, recognizing the danger associated with the constant increase in greenhouse gas emissions, agreed to sign the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at the 1992 Rio de Janeiro Conference on Environment and Development.

In December 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto (Japan), which obliges industrialized countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5% from 1990 levels by 2008-2012, including European Union should reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 8%, the USA - by 7%, Japan - by 6%. Russia and Ukraine are content to keep their emissions below 1990 levels, and 3 countries (Australia, Iceland and Norway) may even increase their emissions because they have forests that absorb CO 2 .

For the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force, it must be ratified by states that account for at least 55% of greenhouse gas emissions. To date, the protocol has been ratified by 161 countries (more than 61% of global emissions). In Russia, the Kyoto Protocol was ratified in 2004. Notable exceptions were the United States and Australia, which make a significant contribution to the greenhouse effect, but refused to ratify the protocol.

In 2007, a new protocol was signed in Bali, expanding the list of measures that need to be taken to reduce the anthropogenic impact on climate change.

Here are some of them:

1. Reduce burning of fossil fuels

Today, 80% of our energy comes from fossil fuels, the combustion of which is the main source of greenhouse gases.

2. Use renewable energy sources more widely.

Solar and wind energy, biomass energy and geothermal energy, tidal energy - today the use of alternative energy sources is becoming a key factor for the long-term sustainable development of humanity.

3. Stop destroying ecosystems!

All attacks on pristine ecosystems must stop. Natural ecosystems absorb CO 2 and are important element in maintaining CO 2 balance. Forests are especially good at this. But in many regions of the world, forests continue to be destroyed at catastrophic rates.

4. Reduce energy losses during energy production and transportation

The transition from large-scale energy (hydroelectric power plants, thermal power plants, nuclear power plants) to small local power plants will reduce energy losses. When transporting energy over long distances, up to 50% of the energy can be lost along the way!

5. Use new energy-efficient technologies in industry

Currently, the efficiency of most technologies used is about 30%! It is necessary to introduce new energy-efficient production technologies.

6. Reduce energy consumption in the construction and housing sector.

Regulations should be adopted requiring the use of energy-efficient materials and technologies in the construction of new buildings, which will reduce energy consumption in homes by several times.

7. New laws and incentives.

Laws should be adopted that impose higher taxes on enterprises that exceed CO 2 emission limits and provide tax incentives for producers of energy from renewable sources and energy-efficient products. Redirect financial flows to the development of these technologies and industries.

8. New ways to travel

Today at big cities Vehicle emissions account for 60-80% of all emissions. The use of new environmentally friendly safe species transport, support public transport, develop infrastructure for cyclists.

9. Promote and encourage energy conservation and careful use natural resources residents of all countries

These measures will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by developed countries by 80% by 2050, and by developing countries by 30% by 2030.

Z CONCLUSION

Recently, the problem of the greenhouse effect has become more and more acute. The global climate situation requires urgent action. Proof of this can be seen in some of the consequences of the greenhouse effect that are already evident today.

Wet areas become even wetter. Continuous rains, which cause a sharp increase in the level of rivers and lakes, are becoming more frequent. Overflowing rivers are flooding coastal settlements, forcing residents to flee their homes to save their lives.

Intense rains occurred in March 1997 in the United States. Many people died, and damage was estimated at $400 million. This continuous rainfall is becoming more intense and is caused by global warming. Warm air may contain more moisture, and there is already much more moisture in Europe's atmosphere than there was 25 years ago. Where will the new rains fall? Experts say areas prone to flooding should prepare for further disasters.

In contrast, dry areas have become drier. The world is experiencing droughts as intense as they have not been seen for 69 years. Drought is destroying corn fields in America. In 1998, corn, which typically grows two meters or more, only grew to a person's waist.

However, despite these natural warnings, humanity does not take measures to reduce emissions into the atmosphere. If humanity continues to behave so irresponsibly towards its planet, then no one knows what other disasters this will result in.

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– this was established during the XX-XXI centuries. direct instrumental observations of global and regional climate warming under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors.

There are two points of view that determine the main causes of global warming.

According to the first point of view , post-industrial warming (an increase in the average global temperature over the last 150 years by 0.5-0.7 °C) is a natural process and in amplitude and speed is comparable to those parameters of temperature fluctuations that took place in certain intervals of the Holocene and Late Glacial. It is argued that temperature fluctuations and variations in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the modern climatic era do not exceed the amplitude of variability in the values ​​of climatic parameters that have occurred in the history of the Earth over the past 400 thousand years.

Second point of view adhere to the majority of researchers who explain global warming by the anthropogenic accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere - carbon dioxide CO 2, methane CH 4, nitrous oxide N 2 O, ozone, freons, tropospheric ozone O 3, as well as some other gases and water vapor. The contribution to the greenhouse effect (in%) of carbon dioxide is 66%, methane - 18, freons - 8, oxide - 3, other gases - 5%. According to the data, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the air have increased since pre-industrial times (1750): CO 2 from 280 to almost 360 ppmv, CH 4 from 700 to 1720 ppmv, and N 2 O from about 275 to almost 310 ppmv. The main source of CO 2 is industrial emissions. At the end of the 20th century. humanity burned annually 4.5 billion tons of coal, 3.2 billion tons of oil and petroleum products, as well as natural gas, peat, oil shale and firewood. All this turned into carbon dioxide, the content of which in the atmosphere increased from 0.031% in 1956 to 0.035% in 1992 and continues to rise.

Emissions into the atmosphere of another greenhouse gas, methane, have also increased sharply. Methane until the beginning of the 18th century. had concentrations close to 0.7 ppmv, but over the past 300 years there has been a slow and then accelerating increase. Today, the growth rate of CO 2 concentration is 1.5-1.8 ppmv/year, and CH 4 concentration is 1.72 ppmv/year. The growth rate of N 2 O concentration is on average 0.75 ppmv/year (for the period 1980-1990). A sharp warming of the global climate began in the last quarter of the 20th century, which in the boreal regions was reflected in a decrease in the number of frosty winters. The average temperature of the surface layer of air over the past 25 years has increased by 0.7 °C. In the equatorial zone it has not changed, but the closer to the poles, the more noticeable the warming. Temperature of subglacial water in the area North Pole increased by almost 2 °C, as a result of which the ice began to melt from below. Over the past hundred years, the global average temperature has increased by almost one degree Celsius. However, most of this warming occurred before the end of the 1930s. Then, from about 1940 to 1975, there was a decrease of about 0.2 °C. Since 1975, temperatures began to rise again (the maximum increase was in 1998 and 2000). Global warming is 2-3 times stronger in the Arctic than in the rest of the planet. If current trends continue, within 20 years, due to decreasing ice cover, Hudson Bay may become unsuitable for polar bears. And by the middle of the century, navigation along the Northern Sea Route may increase to 100 days a year. Now it lasts about 20 days. Studies of the main climate features over the past 10-15 years have shown that this period is the warmest and wettest not only in the last 100 years, but also in the last 1000 years.

The factors that actually determine global climate change are:

• solar radiation;
• orbital parameters of the Earth;
• tectonic movements that change the ratio of the areas of the Earth's water surface and land;
• gas composition of the atmosphere and, above all, the concentration of greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide and methane;
• the transparency of the atmosphere, which changes the Earth's albedo due to volcanic eruptions;
• technogenic processes, etc.

Forecasts of global climate change in the 21st century. show the following.

Air temperature. According to the ensemble of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) forecast models, average global warming will be 1.3 °C by the middle of the 21st century. (2041-2060) and 2.1 °C towards its end (2080-2099). On the territory of Russia in different seasons the temperature will change over a fairly wide range. Against the background of general global warming, the greatest increase in surface temperature in the 21st century. will be in winter in Siberia and the Far East. The temperature increase along the Arctic Ocean coast will be 4 °C in the middle of the 21st century. and 7-8 °C at the end.

Precipitation. According to the ensemble of IPCC AOGCM models, the average estimates of the global increase in mean annual precipitation are 1.8% and 2.9%, respectively, for the middle and end of the 21st century. The average annual increase in precipitation throughout Russia will significantly exceed the indicated global changes. In many Russian catchment areas, precipitation will increase not only in winter, but also in summer. In the warm season, the increase in precipitation will be noticeably less and will be observed mainly in the northern regions, Siberia and the Far East. Predominantly convective precipitation will increase in the summer, indicating the possibility of increased frequency of showers and associated extreme weather patterns. in summer southern regions In the European territory of Russia and Ukraine, the amount of precipitation will decrease. In winter, the share of liquid precipitation will increase in the European part of Russia and its southern regions, and the amount of solid precipitation will increase in Eastern Siberia and Chukotka. As a result, the mass of snow accumulated over the winter in the west and south of Russia will decrease and, accordingly, additional accumulation of snow in central and eastern Siberia will decrease. At the same time, the number of days with precipitation will increase in its variability in the 21st century. compared to the 20th century. The contribution of the heaviest precipitation will increase significantly.

Soil water balance. With climate warming, along with an increase in precipitation in the warm season, evaporation from the land surface will increase, which will lead to a noticeable decrease in the moisture content of the active soil layer and runoff throughout the entire territory under consideration. From the difference in precipitation and evaporation, calculated for the modern climate and the climate of the 21st century, it is possible to determine the total change in the moisture content of the soil layer and runoff, which, as a rule, have the same sign (i.e., with a decrease in soil moisture, a decrease in the total drain and vice versa). In regions free of snow cover, a trend towards a decrease in soil moisture content will be revealed in the spring and will become more noticeable throughout Russia.

River flow. An increase in annual precipitation with global warming will lead to a noticeable increase in river flow in most catchments, with the exception of the catchments of southern rivers (Dnieper - Don), where the annual flow by the end of the 21st century. will decrease by approximately 6%.

The groundwater. With global warming at the HS (at the beginning of the 21st century), there will not be any significant changes in the supply of groundwater compared to modern conditions. In most of the country they will not exceed ± 5-10%, and only in part of the territory of Eastern Siberia they can reach + 20-30% of the current norm for groundwater resources. However, already by this period a tendency will appear in an increase in underground flow in the north and its decrease in the south and southwest, which is in good agreement with modern trends noted from long-term series of observations.

Cryolithozone. According to projections made using five different climate change models, in the next 25-30 years the area " permafrost"may decrease by 10-18%, and by the middle of the century by 15-30%, while its border will shift to the northeast by 150-200 km. The depth of seasonal thawing will increase everywhere, on average by 15-25%, and on the Arctic coast and in certain areas of Western Siberia up to 50%. In Western Siberia (Yamal, Gydan), the temperature of frozen soils will increase by an average of 1.5-2 °C, from -6... -5 °C to -4... -3 °C, and there will be a danger of the formation of high-temperature frozen soils even in areas Arctic. In areas of permafrost degradation in the southern peripheral zone, permafrost islands will melt. Since the frozen strata here have a small thickness (from a few meters to several tens of meters), complete thawing of most of the permafrost islands is possible over a period of about several decades. In the coldest northern zone, where “permafrost” underlies more than 90% of the surface, the depth of seasonal thawing will mainly increase. Here they can also arise and develop large islands non-through thawing, mainly under water bodies, with the detachment of the permafrost roof from the surface and its preservation in deeper layers. The intermediate zone will be characterized by intermittent distribution of frozen rocks, the density of which will decrease during the warming process, and the depth of seasonal thawing will increase.

Global changes in the Earth's climate will have significant influence on the main sectors of the economy.

Agriculture. Climate change will reduce crop yield potential in most tropical and subtropical regions. If the average global temperature rises by more than a few degrees, crop yields in mid-latitudes will decrease (which cannot be compensated by changes in high latitudes). Dry lands will be hit first. An increase in CO 2 concentration could potentially be a positive factor, but most likely it will be more than “compensated” by secondary negative effects, especially where Agriculture carried out using extensive methods.

Forestry. Estimated climate changes for a period of 30-40 years lie within the range of acceptable changes in the growing conditions of tree flora in natural forests. However, the expected climate change can disrupt the established course of relationships between tree species at the stage of natural regeneration of forests after logging, fires, in hotbeds of diseases and pests. The indirect impact of climate change on tree species, especially young trees, is an increase in the frequency of short-term extreme weather conditions (heavy snowfalls, hail, storms, droughts, late spring frosts, etc.). Global warming will cause an increase in the growth rate of soft-leaved tree stands of the order of 0.5-0.6% per year.

Water supply. In any case, unfavorable trends in water supply will cover a relatively small part of the territory of Russia; in most of it, the possibilities for water supply for any type of economic activity will improve due to a harmless increase in water withdrawal from underground water bodies and all major rivers.

Human health and vital activity. The health and quality of life of the majority of Russians should improve. The climate comfort will increase and the area of ​​the favorable living area will increase. Labor potential will increase, and positive changes in working conditions in the northern regions will be especially noticeable. Global warming, coupled with the rationalization of the Arctic development strategy, will lead to an increase in average duration life by about one year. The greatest direct impact of heat stress will be felt in cities, where the most vulnerable (old people, children, people suffering from cardiac diseases, etc.) and low-income groups will be in the worst situation.

Sources: Assessments of global and regional climate changes in the 19th-21st centuries based on the IAP RAS model, taking into account anthropogenic impacts. Anisimov O.A. and others. Izv. RAS, 2002, FAO, 3, No. 5; Kovalevsky V.S., Kovalevsky Yu.V., Semenov S.M. Impact of climate change on groundwater and the interconnected environment // Geoecology, 1997, No. 5; Coming Climate Change, 1991.

Global warming and other irreversible changes in the environment cause concern among many scientists.

How does climate change threaten Russia? Bias climatic zones, insect invasions, destructive natural disasters and crop failures - in the RIA Novosti selection.

Climate change has led to a tick infestation in Russia

Climate change has led to a strong increase in the number and rapid spread of ticks in central Russia, the North, Siberia and the Far East, reports the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Russia.

“Increasingly more frequent than previously warm winters and springs lead to the fact that a larger percentage of ticks successfully overwinter, their numbers grow, and they spread over an ever larger territory. Climate change forecasts for the coming decades clearly indicate that trends will not change, which means that the ticks themselves will not crawl away and die, and the problem will only worsen,” says Alexey Kokorin, head of the Climate and Energy program at WWF Russia, whose words are quoted by the fund.

According to WWF, in regions where ticks have always been present, there are more of them. These are the Perm region, Vologda, Kostroma, Kirov and other regions, Siberia and the Far East. But what’s worse is that ticks have appeared where they are “not known.” They are spreading to the north Arkhangelsk region, and the west, and even the south of Russia. If previously only the two northernmost districts of the Moscow region - Taldomsky and Dmitrovsky - were considered dangerous in relation to tick-borne encephalitis, now ticks have been spotted in the middle part of the region and even in the south, WWF notes.

"The most dangerous months, when ticks are most active, are May and June, although outbreaks of activity also occur at the end of summer. The most dangerous places are small forests of deciduous trees - young birch and aspen forests, edges and areas of forest with tall grass. Coniferous forests are much less dangerous, especially if there is little grass in them,” the foundation emphasizes.

As ecologists add, the “infection” of the ticks themselves, which carry very serious diseases: encephalitis, Lyme disease (borreliosis), has not changed. As before, only 1-2 ticks out of a thousand are carriers of the most dangerous disease - encephalitis. There are several dozen other diseases out of a thousand. But the number of ticks themselves has increased and, most importantly, they have appeared in new places.

The positive effect of climate change for the Russian Federation will be short-lived

The positive consequences of climate change for Russian agriculture, which were previously stated in an interview by the head of the Ministry of Agriculture Nikolai Fedorov, will apparently be short-term and may disappear by 2020, the coordinator of the climate and energy program of the World Wildlife Fund told RIA Novosti (WWF) Russia Alexey Kokorin.

Agriculture Minister Nikolai Fedorov said in an interview on Wednesday that climate change and, in particular, warming will be in the interests of the country, since the territory of permafrost, which today accounts for about 60% of the territory of the Russian Federation, will be reduced, and the area of ​​land favorable for farming agriculture, on the contrary, will increase.

According to Kokorin, the Institute of Agricultural Meteorology of Roshydromet in Obninsk analyzed in sufficient detail possible climate change scenarios and their impact on the conditions for farming in the country for all macro-regions of Russia.

“It turns out that, indeed, for some time there may be a so-called positive effect on the conditional climate yield. But then, in some cases from 2020, in some from 2030, depending on the scenario, it still goes down.” , - said Kokorin.

"That is, of course, some catastrophic things that are predicted, say, for Uzbekistan or for certain African countries, not expected. Moreover, a small positive and short-term effect is expected - but here it is always necessary to make a reservation, firstly, what period of time we are talking about, and secondly, that then, unfortunately, it will still be negative,” the expert added.

Kokorin recalled that one of the consequences of climate change will be an increase in the scale and frequency of hazardous weather events, which can cause very significant damage to farmers in a particular region. This means that it is necessary to improve the insurance system in agriculture, which, according to Kokorin, “on the one hand, is already working, on the other, it is still working with glitches.” In particular, it is necessary to establish interaction between agricultural producers, insurance companies and regional divisions of Roshydromet.

Winter temperatures in Russia may rise by 2-5 degrees by mid-century

Winter temperatures throughout Russia may increase by two to five degrees Celsius due to global climate change by the middle of the 21st century, warns the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations.

“The greatest warming will affect winter... in the middle of the 21st century, an increase of 2-5 degrees is predicted throughout the country,” says the forecast of the Antistihia center for 2013. According to its experts, in most of the European territory of Russia and western Siberia, the increase in winter temperatures in the period until 2015 could amount to one or two degrees.

“The increase in summer temperatures will be less pronounced and will amount to 1-3 degrees by mid-century,” the document notes.

As previously reported, the rate of warming in Russia over 100 years is one and a half to two times faster than throughout the world, and over the past decade the rate of warming in the country has increased several times compared to the 20th century.

The climate in Russia has been warming almost twice as fast as the rest of the world for a century now.

The rate of warming in Russia over 100 years due to global climate change is one and a half to two times faster than throughout the world, warns the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations.

“Over the past 100 years, the average increase in temperature across Russia has been one and a half to two times higher than global warming on Earth as a whole,” says the Antistihia center’s forecast for 2013.

The document notes that in the 21st century, the bulk of Russia's territory "will be in an area of ​​more significant warming compared to global warming." “At the same time, warming will significantly depend on the time of year and the region, this will especially affect Siberia and the subarctic regions,” the forecast states.

IN last years the number of dangerous natural phenomena and major man-made disasters is steadily growing. Emergency risks arising in the process of global climate change and economic activity pose a significant threat to the population and economic facilities of the country.

According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, in areas of possible impact damaging factors During accidents at critical and potentially dangerous facilities, over 90 million Russians, or 60% of the country's population, live. Annual economic damage (direct and indirect) from emergencies of various types can reach 1.5-2% of gross domestic product - from 675 to 900 billion rubles.

Climate warming leads to more snow in Siberia

Global climate change is leading to an increase in snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and Siberia, said Vladimir Kotlyakov, director of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, speaking at the World Snow Forum on Thursday.

“A paradox arises - with warming, which is now typical, there is more snow on Earth. This happens in large areas of Siberia, where there is more snow than there was one or two decades ago,” said Honorary President of the Russian Geographical Society Kotlyakov.

According to the geographer, scientists have been observing the trend of increasing snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere since the 1960s, when satellite observations of the distribution of snow cover began.

“Now is the era of global warming, and as the air temperature increases, the moisture content of air masses also increases, so the amount of snow falling in cold areas increases. This indicates the great sensitivity of the snow cover to any changes in the composition of the atmosphere and its circulation, and this must be remembered when assessment of any anthropogenic impacts on the environment,” the scientist explained.

In general, there is much more snow in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, where its distribution is hampered by the ocean. Thus, in February, 19% of the globe’s area is covered with snow, including 31% of the Northern Hemisphere and 7.5% of the Southern Hemisphere.
“In August, snow covers only 9% of the entire globe. In the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover changes more than seven times during the year, and in the Southern Hemisphere it changes less than twice,” Kotlyakov added.

According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in December 2012, the total area of ​​snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere became the largest in more than 130 years of observation - it was almost 3 million square kilometers higher than the average and 200 thousand square kilometers higher. exceeded the 1985 record. On average, according to American meteorologists, the area of ​​snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere in winter grew at a rate of about 0.1% per decade.

European Russia will not receive bonuses from warming, scientist said

Calculations of global warming processes in the 21st century on the East European Plain and Western Siberia indicate that climate change will not have any positive environmental and economic consequences for these regions, said Alexander Kislov, head of the department of meteorology and climatology of the Faculty of Geography of Moscow State University, speaking at international conference"Problems of adaptation to climate change."

Kislov, Dean of the Faculty of Geography of Moscow State University Nikolai Kasimov and their colleagues analyzed the geographical, environmental and economic consequences of global warming on the East European Plain and Western Siberia in the 21st century using the CMIP3 model.

In particular, changes in river flow, the state of permafrost, the distribution of vegetation cover, and the characteristics of the incidence of malaria in the population were considered. In addition, it was studied how the volumes of hydropower and agroclimatic resources react to climatic processes, and how the duration of the heating season changes.

“Climate change is almost nowhere leading to positive results from an environmental and economic point of view (except for lower heating costs), at least in the short term. Significant deterioration of hydrological resources is expected in the southern part of the East European Plain,” the scientists conclude.

Moreover, the consequences of climate change are much more pronounced on the East European Plain than in Western Siberia.

“The response of individual regions to global changes is very different... each region is dominated by its own natural-ecological process caused by climate change, for example, the thawing of permafrost or desertification processes,” concluded Kislov.

The International Conference "Problems of Adaptation to Climate Change" (PAIC-2011) is held on behalf of the Government of the Russian Federation by Roshydromet with the participation of other departments, the Russian Academy of Sciences, business and public organizations with the support of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNESCO, the World bank and other international institutions.

The meeting, the organizing committee of which is headed by the head of Roshydromet Alexander Frolov, will be attended by the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Rajendra Pachauri, the UN Secretary General's Special Representative for Disaster Risk Reduction Margareta Wallström, WMO Secretary General Michesh Jarraud, representatives of the World Bank, UNEP, Russian and foreign climatologists and meteorologists , politicians, officials, economists and businessmen.

The duration of the fire danger period in the Russian Federation will increase by 40% until 2015.

The Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation predicts an increase in the duration of the fire hazardous period in middle lane Russia by 40%, that is, almost two months, due to global climate change.

“The duration of the fire season in the middle latitude zone of Russia may increase by 50-60 days, that is, by 30-40%, in comparison with the existing long-term average values,” Vladislav Bolov, head of the Anti-Emergency Center of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, told RIA Novosti on Friday.

According to him, this will significantly increase the threats and risks of large-scale emergencies associated with natural fires.

"The duration of the fire hazard situation will increase most significantly in the south of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, in Kurgan, Omsk, Novosibirsk, Kemerovo and Tomsk regions, Krasnoyarsk and Altai territories, as well as in Yakutia,” Bolov said.

At the same time, he noted that “compared to current values, the number of days with fire danger is predicted to increase to five days per season for most of the country.”

Last summer and part of the fall, large-scale wildfires caused by abnormal heat burned across large parts of the country. In 19 federal subjects, 199 settlements were damaged, 3.2 thousand houses burned down, and 62 people died. The total damage amounted to over 12 billion rubles. This year, the fire also engulfed large areas, primarily in the Far East and Siberia.

Forest-steppe may come to Moscow by the end of the century due to climate change

Moscow and the Moscow region, 50-100 years after the end of the current “transitional” period of warming, will be similar in climatic conditions to the forest-steppes of the Kursk and Oryol regions with dry summers and warm winters, says Pavel Toropov, senior researcher at the Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University.

“After the end of the transitional climate process that is currently occurring, the climate will return to its new warmer state in 50-100 years natural areas may change. Judging by existing forecasts, climatic conditions will be closer to the landscapes and natural conditions of forest-steppes, which are currently observed in the Kursk and Oryol regions,” Toropov said at a press conference at RIA Novosti.

According to him, Moscow and the region will not be left without snow as a result of climate warming, but there will be hot, dry summers and warmer, milder winters.

“The climate of the region will change significantly, apparently, but in the next 50 years we will not be left without snow and will not start growing apricots and peaches,” Toropov added.

Russia could lose up to 20% of grain annually due to climate change

Russia may annually lose up to 20% of its grain harvest in the next five to ten years due to global climate change on the planet and increasing aridity in the southern regions Union State Russia and Belarus, says the assessment report on the consequences of climate change for the Union State, published on the website of Roshydromet.

The report “On strategic assessments of the consequences of climate change in the next 10-20 years for the natural environment and economy of the Union State” was considered at a meeting of the Council of Ministers of the Union State on October 28, 2009.

According to Rosstat, as of December 1, 2009, the grain harvest in all categories of farms amounted to 102.7 million tons in bunker weight. This corresponds to 95.7 million tonnes by weight after processing, with an average unused grain waste share of 6.8% in 2004-2008.

The report states that the most important negative feature of expected climate change is the increase in aridity that accompanies warming processes in the southern regions of the Union State.

"The expected increase in climate aridity may lead to a decrease in yields in the main grain-producing regions of Russia (potential annual losses in grain harvest volumes, while maintaining the existing land cultivation system and the selection species used, may in some years reach 15-20% in the next five to ten years gross grain harvest), but will not, apparently, have a significant negative impact on agriculture in the fairly humid Non-Black Earth Zone,” the report notes.

According to the report, in Belarus and a number of regions of the European territory of the Russian Federation, conditions for the growth and formation of crops of medium and late varieties of potatoes, flax, vegetable crops (cabbage), and second cutting of grass will worsen.

The document proposes to use additional heat resources to increase the share of more heat-loving and drought-resistant crops, expand stubble (mowing) crops and the volume of irrigation work, and introduce drip irrigation systems.

The permafrost boundary in the Arctic has retreated up to 80 km due to warming

The permafrost boundary in the Arctic regions of Russia has retreated up to 80 kilometers in recent decades due to global warming, which has intensified the processes of soil degradation, the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations reported on Tuesday.

The total area of ​​permafrost areas in Russia is about 10.7 million square kilometers, or about 63% of the country's territory. More than 70% of proven oil reserves, about 93% of natural gas, significant deposits of coal are concentrated here, and an extensive infrastructure of fuel and energy complex facilities has also been created.

“Over the past few decades, the southern border of the VM has shifted to a distance of 40 to 80 kilometers... Degradation processes (soil) have intensified - areas of seasonal thawing (taliks) and thermokarst phenomena have appeared,” says the forecast of the emergency situation in the Russian Federation for 2012 , prepared by the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations.

The agency also records changes in the temperature regimes of the upper layer of permafrost over the past 40 years.

"Observational data demonstrate an almost universal increase, since 1970, in the average annual temperature of the upper layer of the VM. In the north of the European territory of Russia it was 1.2-2.4 degrees, in the north of Western Siberia - 1, Eastern Siberia - 1.3, in central Yakutia - 1.5 degrees,” the document reports.

At the same time, the Ministry of Emergency Situations notes the impact of permafrost degradation on the stability of various structures, primarily residential buildings, industrial facilities and pipelines, as well as automobile and railways, runways and power lines.

“This was one of the main prerequisites for the fact that in recent years the number of accidents and various damages to the above-mentioned objects has significantly increased on the territory of the Military District,” the forecast notes.

According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation, in the Norilsk industrial complex alone, about 250 structures suffered significant deformations, almost 40 residential buildings were demolished or planned for demolition.

The problem of climate imbalance has become acute recently. Over the first 10 years of the 21st century, the volume of emissions of harmful gases increased 4 times. For this reason, there is now a persistent increase in ambient temperature.

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Global warming: myth or reality?

The issue of global warming is receiving more and more attention. Every day new theories and facts appear, old ones are refuted or confirmed. Publications contradict one another, which often leads to misconceptions. Let's try to figure this issue out.

Global warming is understood as the process of increasing the temperature of the environment (averaged indicators for the year), ocean waters, and the surface of the planet, caused by changes in the activity of the Sun, an increase in the emission of harmful gases in the atmosphere and other factors that arise as a by-product of human activity. Let's figure out what threatens us with a change in temperature.

Consequences of global warming

TO The consequences of global warming include:

• climatic changes, which are manifested by abnormal temperatures. Here are some examples of this process: severe frosts in winter alternate with quite high temperature during warming periods, abnormally hot or cold summers;
• reduction of water supplies suitable for consumption;
• decreased yields of many crops;
• melting glaciers, which increases water levels in the oceans and leads to the appearance of icebergs;
• an increase in the number of natural disasters: prolonged droughts, heavy rainfalls in certain regions where this was not typical; destructive hurricanes and tornadoes;
• desertification and increase in areas unsuitable for life;
• reduction in diversity biological species due to the inability to adapt to new living conditions.

Whether this is dangerous for humanity or not, it is impossible to say for sure. Question in how quickly he can adapt to new conditions. There is an acute imbalance in quality of life in different regions. Less populated but more developed countries The Earth is trying with all its might to stop the process of destructive anthropogenic influence on the environment, in while in densely populated, less developed countries in The first priority is the problem of survival. Global climate change could lead to further increase this imbalance.

Scientists track signs of ongoing changes using the results of studies of the chemical composition of the atmosphere and ocean waters, meteorological observations, changes in the rate at which glaciers are melting, and a graph of changes in ice areas.

The rate of iceberg formation is also being investigated. Predictions based on the data obtained provide insight into the consequences of human influence on ecosystems. Evidence obtained from research shows that the threat lies in the fact that the rate of climate change is increasing every year, so the main challenge is the need to implement environmentally friendly safe ways production and restoration of natural balance.

Historical facts about climate change

Analysis of paleontological data suggests that periods of cooling and warming have accompanied the Earth at all times. Cold periods were replaced by warming periods and vice versa. In the Arctic latitudes in summer the temperature rose to +13 o C. In contrast, there was a time when there were glaciers in tropical latitudes.

The theory confirms that humanity has witnessed several periods of climate change. There is evidence in historical chronicles that in the 11th-13th centuries there was no ice cover on the territory of Greenland, for this reason Norwegian sailors called it “green land”. Then a period of cooling came, and the territory of the island was covered with ice. At the beginning of the 20th century, a period of warming began again, as a result of which the areas of glaciers in the mountains and the ice of the Arctic Ocean decreased. In the 1940s, there was a short-term cooling, and since the 1980s, an active increase in temperature began throughout the planet.

In the 21st century, the essence of the problem is that the influence of anthropogenic factors has been added to the natural causes of changes in environmental temperature. The pressure on ecosystems is constantly increasing. Its manifestation is observed in all regions of the planet.

Causes of global warming

Scientists are not ready to say with precision why climate conditions are changing. Many theories and hypotheses have a right to exist. The most common hypotheses are:

1. The world's oceans influence the climate. It accumulates solar energy. Changing currents have a direct impact on the climatic conditions of coastal countries. Air masses, which are formed under the influence of these currents, regulate temperature and weather many countries and continents. The circulation of heat in ocean waters has been little studied. The formation of hurricanes, which then come to continents with destructive force, is a consequence of disruptions in heat circulation in the oceans. Ocean water contains carbon dioxide and other harmful impurities, the concentration of which is several times higher than in the atmosphere. Under certain natural processes, these gases can be released into the atmosphere, which causes further climate changes on the planet.
2. The smallest changes in solar activity directly affect the climate on Earth. Scientists have identified several cycles of changes in solar activity lasting 11, 22 and 80-90 years. It is likely that the increased activity at the present time will decrease, and the air temperature will drop by several degrees.
3. Volcanic activity. According to studies, during large volcanic eruptions an initial decrease in air temperature is observed, which is due to the release of large volumes of soot and sulfuric acid aerosols into the air. Then there is significant warming, which is caused by an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide resulting from the volcanic eruption.
4. Climate change is the result of anthropogenic influence. This hypothesis is the most popular. Comparing the rate of economic and technological growth, population growth and trends in climate change, scientists came to the conclusion that everything is connected with human activity. A side effect of the active pace of industrial development has been the emission of harmful gases and air pollution. According to research results, the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere creates a so-called shell, which leads to disruption of the planet’s heat exchange and a gradual increase in the temperature of the air, the Earth’s surface, and ocean waters.

Ways to solve the problem of global warming

According to a number of scientists, if people take on the problem of global warming in the coming years, the rate of climate change can be reduced. If people's lifestyle remains unchanged, it will not be possible to avoid the fate of dinosaurs.

Scientists offer different ways to fight and stop global warming. Ways to solve the problem of climate change and reduce the burden on the environment are very different: from landscaping areas, breeding new varieties of plants adapted to changing conditions, and ending with the development of new technological processes that will have less impact on nature. In any case, the struggle should be aimed not only at solving current problems, but also at preventing negative consequences in the future. Not the least role here is given to reducing the use of non-renewable energy sources and the transition to the use of renewable ones. Many countries are already switching to geo- and wind energy.

Much attention is paid to the development regulatory documents, whose main task is to reduce emissions of harmful gases into the atmosphere and preserve biological diversity. This requires significant investment, but as long as people put their own well-being first, it will not be possible to get rid of the problem of climate change and prevent its consequences.