In September, maintenance of the new railway will begin from Baku (Alyat port) through Tbilisi to the Turkish city of Kars. The length of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) highway was 826 km. Construction of this line began back in 2008. And they wanted to finish it in three years, but they are only finishing it now. In July of this year, the start of a test drive of the railway was finally officially announced, reports the Turkish publication Daily Sabah.

BTK is expected to begin full operation at the end of 2017 or early 2018. And it should become an integral part of the “New Silk Road” - the Chinese mega-project “One Belt - One Road”, designed to connect China with a high-speed and safe trade corridor with Europe.

In the first years of operation, the highway is expected to transport 1 million passengers and 6.5 million tons of cargo; at the second stage, the volume of cargo transportation can reach 17-20 million tons and up to 2 million passengers per year.

Georgia: they don’t skimp on ambitions

The idea of ​​building the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway was discussed back in the 90s of the last century, after the collapse of the USSR. Implementation began only in November 2007 from the territory of Georgia. The project was launched at a ceremony with the participation of the presidents of the three participating countries.

The then President of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili, immediately characterized the project as a “great geopolitical revolution” and linked it with China.

Saakashvili said that “all Chinese cargo that arrives today in Europe through Russian territory will go along this road.” At the initial stage, it was planned to transport no more than 4-5 million tons along this road. This called into question the profitability of the entire project. But Saakashvili assured his partners that he would help Kazakhstan out. Allegedly, Astana decided to redirect 10 million tons of cargo going to Europe through Russia and Belarus to this section.

The Georgian part of the highway is the road from Tiflis to Kars, which was built by order of the Russian Emperor Nicholas II. For the new construction of a railway here, Georgia took a loan from Azerbaijan. The volume of the credit line is $775 million. The State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan issued the first tranche in the amount of $200 million for 20 years to Georgians at a symbolic 1% per annum.

The second tranche in 2011 of $575 million already cost 5%, and the repayment period was extended over 25 years. In pre-crisis times, less expensive projects were discussed in Georgia, three times cheaper, but Saakashvili decided not to skimp on his ambitions.

Azerbaijan dreams of becoming Dubai

The most interesting thing is that even after the loan is repaid, Georgia will not have the right to establish a tariff policy on its part of the BTK route. Azerbaijan intends to set exclusive tariffs for the transportation of goods via the BTK, with the unconditional support of Turkey.

Like neighboring Georgia, Azerbaijan is trying to use its geographical position to extract transit rent. But Baku also had to spend money to make the BTK transport corridor effective and attract the attention of the global beneficiary - China. In Azerbaijan, in the same 2007, they decided to expand the bottleneck of the future trade route - the seaport on the Caspian Sea.

The existing port in the center of Baku was not suitable for such a role and was moved 65 km from the capital, to the village of Alyat. Now here on an area of ​​20 square meters. km, a port and a terminal for road and rail transport are being built for container transportation. Alyat also became a free trade zone. The new Baku port will be the largest logistics center connecting China with Europe, East with West.

The Alyat Free Port is being created following the model of the Jebel Ali Free Zone (JAFZA) in Dubai. There it is not just a transport hub, but an entire conglomeration with industrial enterprises, banks, and the residential sector. The first part of the Alyat project is designed to transport 10 million tons of cargo and 50 thousand TEU (20-foot equivalent container capacity). The second part of the project, starting in 2017, will increase the port’s capacity to 17 million tons of cargo and 150 thousand TEU.

The master plan for the Alyat port was developed by the Dutch Royal HaskoningDHV, taking into account the experience of the largest European ports - Rotterdam and Hamburg. The project consultant is DP World, which participated in the development of the Khorgos special economic zone in Kazakhstan. Khorgos is also considered part of the New Silk Road project.

Transit rent beckons

The completion of the highway to Turkish Kars means that the route from China to Europe has now become more convenient, because there is no need to transship goods across the Black Sea. A railway connection has already been established from Kars to the border with Europe (via Greece and Bulgaria).

Almost every country whose geographical location allows it dreams of making money on the transit of goods from China to Europe. Not only Azerbaijan or Turkey, not only Russia or Kazakhstan, Mongolia, but also Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine would like to take over the “Silk Road”. Last year, Ukrainian Railways announced the launch of trains to China, bypassing Russia.

Ukrainian railway workers promised to deliver cargo to the border with the EU in 11 days. But in the end it took 15 and a half days for delivery.

China will try to be friends with all countries that may be geographically related to the New Silk Road project, promising to fill the routes with goods, notes InfraNews CEO Alexey Bezborodov.

So far, Russia has outperformed Azerbaijan and Turkey due to the relative cheapness of transportation.

In addition, their cost is off the charts. It's not profitable. “Today, transporting one container only by sea, on one section - through the Caspian Sea - costs $1,200. For this money you can transport a container from Vladivostok to Moscow,” says Bezborodov.

This is not the UN Security Council

Nevertheless, experts do not rule out that Russia may drop out of the New Silk Road project in the next few years. China is trying to test different ways of transporting goods to Europe and diversify them. Each of them has advantages and disadvantages. Most of the cargo to the EU goes by sea. Overland transport of goods from China accounts for only 5-6% of its cargo. The bulk of them goes along the Russian Trans-Siberian Railway (1.5 million tons) at a cost of $6-7 thousand per container.

“But the problem rests on the congestion of the Trans-Siberian Railway with internal Russian cargo and the low capacity of the line. It is difficult to withstand large-scale additional transit from China,” says Mark Goikhman, leading analyst at TeleTrade Group.

The second significant problem for increasing transit through Russia and Kazakhstan to Europe is the speed of movement of freight trains. average speed along the Trans-Siberian Railway - approximately 12 km/h, there are many “narrow sections” where traffic is slowed down, recalls Goikhman. According to Bezborodov, the speed of container deliveries within China and for export is 40 km/h.

China understands this, but is in no hurry to invest in Russia’s transport infrastructure, experts say.

The Chinese like to say that China and the United States have cool political relations, but hot economic ties. All the largest US trading companies and banks have long been registered in China. With Russia it's the other way around. Ideologically, the two countries are close to each other, which is repeatedly proven, for example, by the results of voting on the UN Security Council agenda. But economic integration is developing with difficulty.

This is not a camel road

“One of the main problems that happened to Russia in last years, is that it has become a difficult to predict country, with unpredictability foreign policy“says Alexey Makarkin, first vice-president of the Center for Political Technologies.

It is not surprising that many of Russia’s partners, even seemingly politically loyal ones, strive to look at alternative options just in case, the expert adds. China has now used at least six options for delivering goods to the EU.

The Chinese themselves, when asked what the problem is, why the currently revived “Silk Road” from China to Europe cannot run through neighboring Russian territory, answer philosophically and evasively. “The Silk Road is not a line on a map, not the delivery of goods from point A to point B. “The Silk Road” is not a road with camels,” said the Plenipotentiary Minister of the Chinese Embassy in Russia, a participant, in an interview with Gazeta.Ru Eastern Economic Forum Zhang Di. This is the path to growth and excellence. Anyone has the right to join this path. And Russia is involved in it, the Chinese official reassured.

The route should become fully operational after the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway (Turkey) is put into operation. In mid-October, the head of Azerbaijan Railways CJSC, Javid Gurbanov, called the delivery date November 2016. For now, cargo containers from China delivered to the Kazakh port of Aktau and then on to Baku will proceed from there to the ports of Georgia, and then be transported by container ships to Turkey.

The trial launch of the route took place back in February 2015, Garibashvili spoke at the Tbilisi forum of the “Silk Road Economic Belt” in September. In July, the Nomadexpress test container train traveled along the route Shihezi (China) - Dostyk (Kazakhstan) - Aktau - Alyat (Azerbaijan), covering 3.5 thousand km through Kazakhstan and the Caspian Sea in five days. It delivered flat cars designed to transport 82 containers weighing 20 tons each.

“The Trans-Asian-Caucasian train can reduce travel time by five times compared to sea transportation. If, for example, sea transport from China requires 40-45 days, then along the new railway route cargo will arrive from China to Georgia within nine days,” he indicated in his report “The Role of Transport and Transit Corridors in Ensuring International Cooperation for sustainable development" (*.pdf) in September this year by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. In the document, he referred to data provided, among other things, by the Georgian government.

In November of this year, cooperation went further: in Istanbul, representatives of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, China and Turkey established a joint consortium to transport goods from China to Europe, bypassing Russia. The enterprise included Mishgeng Logistics (China), the Kazakh subsidiary of KTZ Express (the Kazakhstan Temir Zholy railway company), the Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company, the Azerbaijani Karvan Logistics and Trans Caucasus Terminals (a subsidiary of the Georgian Railway). Türkiye is represented in the consortium as an associate member. The train that arrived in Tbilisi from China on Sunday was the first test train; the railway operator was a consortium.

As Igbal Huseynov, deputy head of Azerbaijan Railways, suggests, up to 54 million tons of cargo per year can pass along the trans-Caspian route. By 2020, up to 300-400 thousand containers could be delivered to Turkey and Europe this way, he said at the beginning of December at a conference in Odessa. From 2016, the consortium expects to begin transporting goods through Ukraine to Northern and Eastern Europe— the governor of the Odessa region, Mikheil Saakashvili, insists on using the capacity of the Odessa port.

Silk nets

The Trans-Caspian route is not the only promising railway route from China to Europe in development. Since 2011, communication has been established between Chinese Chongqing and German Duisburg: the total length of the route is 11.2 thousand km, and before reaching Germany, chinese train passes through the territory of Kazakhstan, Russia and Poland. Since the launch of communication in this direction, China has transported goods worth a total of $2.5 billion along it. A total of 11 Chinese cities, the largest industrial hubs, have freight rail connections with Europe.

The impetus for the development of infrastructure projects was given by the ambitious concept of the “Silk Road Economic Belt”, formulated by Chinese President Xi Jinping in September 2013 during his tour of the countries Central Asia.

This concept involves the development economic cooperation on the continent through the construction of transport infrastructure. Increasing its efficiency, coupled with the elimination of trade barriers, should lead to an increase in the volume of mutual trade in the region, as well as increase the role of national currencies, primarily the Chinese yuan, in mutual economic transactions. In addition, the implementation of infrastructure projects should give impetus to the development of China's sparsely populated and economically lagging inland provinces, from Inner Mongolia to the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.

To develop infrastructure projects, at the initiative of China, a $40 billion Silk Road Fund was established, co-founded by the Central Bank of China, other state banks and state corporations.

Beijing is placing its main bet on railway communication - this industry has been chosen as the main export industry. “It is expected that railways will be the locomotive for increasing the export of Chinese high-tech equipment,” wrote (*.pdf) Deputy Director of IMEMO RAS Vasily Mikheev, Sector Head of the same institute Sergei Lukonin and Korean researcher Jae Sung Hong.

Following the Chinese railway workers, equipment manufacturers should come to the regions, software, providers of engineering and other services, as well as banks, insurance and other companies, experts describe the expansion strategy of the PRC.

“The Silk Road strategy is a strategy to stimulate Chinese exports,” Jonathan Holslag, a professor at the Free University of Brussels, explained to RBC. “Most of the railways and infrastructure projects built with Chinese assistance are part of a trade pattern in which China runs a trade surplus and other countries run trade deficits.” Beijing will work on this strategy for the next 10-15 years.

In addition, according to Mikheev and his colleagues, the tasks of the Silk Road also include ensuring China’s energy security - the country is highly dependent on energy supplies. Thus, in 2013, according to estimates of the Ministry of Land and natural resources China, China's dependence on oil supplies was 57%, and by 2020 this figure could rise to 66% with the prospect of further increase.

At the end of 2013, according to official data, China imported 280 million tons of oil. Of these, 10.17 million tons (86 million barrels) were in Kazakhstan. The raw materials were supplied through a pipeline connecting Central Kazakhstan and North-West China, its length is 745 km. In 2013, Turkmenistan provided 52% of China's gas needs. In 2014, China bought up to 100 billion cubic meters. m of gas from the Central Asian states. In the spring of 2014, it became known that the Chinese oil and gas company CNPC intends to invest $4 billion in an industrial zone in the south of Turkmenistan.

The Russian government this week approved an intergovernmental agreement with China on the purchase of a 9.9% stake in Yamal LNG from NOVATEK, said the head of the Federal Antimonopoly Service Igor Artemyev. The buyer was the Silk Road Fund.

Together with Gazprom

In addition, China cooperates with the Russian Gazprom. In May, the head of Gazprom, Alexey Miller, and the vice-president of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Wang Dongjin, signed an agreement on the basic conditions for gas supplies from Russia to China via the western route.

The framework agreement on supplies via the western route was signed in November 2014 and provides for the annual supply of 30 billion cubic meters to China. m of gas from the fields of Western Siberia via the Altai gas pipeline.

Place of Russia

The Silk Road and the concept promoted by Russia Eurasian integration based on the Eurasian economic union, despite all the mutual assurances from Beijing and Moscow, can hardly be considered complementary. At the same time, the Chinese leadership constantly emphasizes that the project implies exclusively economic cooperation and does not aim at any political integration.

Economically, the interests of the two projects are already colliding. Thus, Beijing is concerned about the Customs Union created on the initiative of Moscow in the CIS space (the Customs Union, in addition to Russia, it includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan). The formation of uniform tariffs for the import of Chinese products into these countries may negatively affect the prospects for growth in the volume of mutual trade between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan with China. As experts from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development calculated back in 2012, an increase in tariffs by 2% could lead to a reduction in Chinese imports to the CU countries by 2-3%.

As IMEMO notes, the CU is gradually tightening its trade regime with China. In recent years, the Eurasian Economic Commission has repeatedly launched investigations against Chinese manufacturers, imposing anti-dumping duties on them. Only in 2015, the EEC introduced anti-dumping duties, among other things, on Chinese seamless steel pipes (used for drilling and operating oil and gas wells), tires for trucks, flat cold-rolled stainless steel products, crawler bulldozers and citric acid.

At the same time, Russia has been losing economic competition to China in Central Asia for several years now. The volume of bilateral trade between China and the countries of Central Asia in 2013 amounted to $50.3 billion, in 2014 against the backdrop of an economic slowdown - $46 billion. At the same time, last year Beijing approved the allocation of an investment package of $30 billion to Astana, Tashkent received a $15 billion deal , the total amount of economic assistance to Kyrgyzstan amounted to $3 billion.

The volume of Russian investments in the region in 2013-2014 amounted to only $15 billion, and the volume of trade turnover, according to Rosstat and the Federal Customs Service, was $30.5 billion in 2013 and $27.8 billion in 2014.

IMEMO experts believe that one of the challenges of the Chinese project is the final transformation of Russia into “player No. 2” in this region. “For the first time, Russia finds itself in the role of a follower player, that is, China will more firmly defend its economic interests,” they argue.

Even the very development of the region’s railway network in the forms in which Beijing sees it can significantly affect the prospects for the inclusion of the Far Eastern regions of Russia in economic cooperation with Europe. “In the event of the likely passage of the main railway line of the Silk Road along Russian territory via Orenburg or Chelyabinsk, the rest of the Trans-Siberian Railway and BAM will remain unused. Kazakhstan will receive the majority of transit payments,” IMEMO experts say.

One-man theater

But it is too early to talk about transport and infrastructure breakthroughs in China. In 2014, China's bilateral trade volume with the European Union, according to the European Commission, amounted to €466 billion ($619 billion at the average annual rate). Of this, rail transportation ordered by cargo owners, according to Chinese customs authorities, accounted for only $4.9 billion, The South China Morning Post indicated in November.

Due to many factors, rail communication along this route is unprofitable and inferior to sea transportation, says RBC Stapran. As The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) notes, railroads will never replace shipping. A train can carry at most several hundred containers, while container ships can carry a load of 18 thousand containers.

The maximum cargo weight of a typical 40-foot container is 9.6 tons. The cost of transporting such a container by rail is $8 thousand. Transporting the same container by sea would cost about $3 thousand, and delivering an equivalent cargo by air would cost $37 thousand, calculated specialized publication JOC.com.

“The tradeoff between price and speed makes rail shipments viable for high-value goods China exports to Europe, such as laptops, or imports from there, such as car components,” the WSJ noted. In the case of the Chongqing-Duisburg route, China, for example, supplies components for Hewlett Packard products.

Moreover, Stapran argues, if we take the Silk Wind project, then at present this direction is not equipped with the appropriate infrastructure, for example, unloading terminals. “A long road is only a hundredth part of what is needed for efficient and profitable transportation of goods. For now, this can only be considered as a pilot project,” the expert tells RBC.

SCMP concludes that the Silk Road has had a "slow start" so far. Logistics companies have faced difficulties in European cities filling empty containers with goods exported from EU countries. According to China Railways, in the first half of 2015, 200 trains were sent from China to Europe, and only 50 arrived back with cargo.

“Only a few containers are returned within a month, we can’t even fill the train,” the publication quotes Gong Qinghua, sales director of one of the freight carriers operating on the Yiwu (Zheqiang Province) - Madrid route. Eight full trains a month depart from this industrial city specializing in the production of souvenirs towards Spain. There is simply no demand for European products in Yiwu, says Gong.

Another factor is the structure of European imports to China: while it is easy to deliver consumer goods by rail to the EU, deliveries of European heavy engineering products by rail cannot be carried out in the opposite direction. According to the European Commission (*.pdf), in the structure of Chinese exports to the EU in 2014, 12.3% were textile goods (second position after engineering products - 46.6%), and another 9.2% were “various finished products " The European Union exported primarily machinery and equipment (31.8%), and secondarily transport equipment (26.3%). The wariness of Europeans towards Chinese logistics companies also plays a role, SCMP cites the opinion of the head of the consulting company Silk Route Rail, Darryl Hadaway.

According to Li Gang, a fellow at the Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy social sciences, for at least the next three to four years, rail transport between China and Europe will not be commercially profitable. Until now, this mega-project has been a “one-man show” for Beijing, but the Silk Road is a long-term strategy for China, says Li Gang. According to him, the potential of China's railway connection with Europe is enormous, since relations between China and the EU are "entering a golden era."

With the participation of Alexander Ratnikov

The domestic market of China, with a decrease in the overall level of world trade during the economic crisis, is not able to consume the amount of goods that it produces. The growth of economic indicators such as wage and the cost of doing business, increases the price of products, therefore, in order to avoid sharp fluctuations in the Chinese economy and maintain the level of GDP growth, the PRC government has chosen the path of soft expansion to the rest of the world.

Having put forward in 2013 the idea of ​​​​restoring the ancient transport route from Asia to Europe as the New Silk Road under the motto “One Belt - One Road”, China simultaneously opens up access for its goods to European markets, strengthens its influence in the world and contributes to the development of other regions, according to the territories of which this logistics route will pass.

Elena Prikhodko, logistics expert, CEO Petite Logist company

Main transport routes between China and Europe

The historical trade route from China to Europe, in its current manifestation as the New Silk Road (NSR) project, represents a serious infrastructural modification, and in some places the creation from scratch of all types of transport routes and the adjacent territory. Countries that will be involved in this project in any way accept it as a transport and economic one. However, China, as the initiator and main customer of the project, put forward a concept under the motto “One Belt – One Road,” namely the creation of a full-fledged space for economic cooperation along the entire length of transport routes with deepening interstate and interregional interaction.

Currently, the New Silk Road project is a door for Chinese manufacturers to the European market for selling their goods with fast delivery times. At the same time, the cost of goods is reduced due to the use straight path and low transit rates, which the Chinese government will start talking about as soon as the first infrastructure facility in another country financed by Chinese investors is built.

The concept of “One Belt – One Road” places the main emphasis on the development of transport routes between China and Europe, which experts combine into three groups.

1. Northern route

The first group includes routes passing through the territory of China, Kazakhstan and Russia. The distance from Urumqi (China) to the western border of Russia is 7,500 km by rail and 6,900 km by road. The cost of delivering goods along this route depends on the type of transport: about $1,300 per TEU (equivalent to a 20-foot container) by rail and at least $3,000 per TEU by road. Design power this path, one of the largest among all those presented, is about 300 thousand TEU per year. So far, the route is used at only 20% of the total capacity.

The most developed route option is the Western China – Western Europe", passing through the cities of Lianyungang, Zhengzhou, Lanzhou, Urumqi, Khorgos, Almaty, Kyzylorda, Aktobe, Orenburg, Kazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Moscow and St. Petersburg with access to the ports of the Baltic Sea.

This route - the only one of all - is already in operation, and most of the existing transit flow goes through it. An important advantage of the route is passing through only one customs border, which is between China and Kazakhstan. But the main problem of the route remains its limited capacity.

2. Sea route

The second group includes routes passing through the territory of Kazakhstan and using the ports of the Caspian and Black Seas for transit - Aktau, Makhachkala, Novorossiysk, Constanta.

The cost of transportation with reloading onto container ships is currently about $4,000 per TEU when transporting to the EU. There is also another delivery option for this route, which differs slightly from the first: from Makhachkala the cargo goes by road to Tbilisi then to the port of Poti. The cost of delivering cargo from China to Georgia using this method is $3,700 per TEU.

The routes of the second group are less powerful than the first: the theoretical capacity of the route Urumqi - Aktau - Makhachkala - Novorossiysk - Constanta (taking into account the capacity of the ports and the available fleet) is 100 thousand TEU per year, and the route Urumqi - Aktau - Makhachkala - Tbilisi - Poti - Constanta (also taking into account the capacity of the ports and the available fleet) - 50 thousand TEU per year.

One of the problems in the development of this group of routes is that Russian ports in the Caspian Sea are not ready to service these transit cargoes; this requires a serious modernization of port facilities.

3. Southern route

The third group includes routes going south of Russian territory. The route Urumqi – Aktau – Baku – Poti – Constanta is the most expensive and one of the least powerful among all listed (practically untested). The cost of delivering one TEU reaches $5,000 when using rail and up to $4,000 when delivering by road and ferry. The theoretical capacity of the route (taking into account the capacity of ports and the available fleet) is 50 thousand TEU per year. This route will also require large investments for the completion and reconstruction of infrastructure.

The land route currently being launched through Iran and Turkey Urumqi – Dostyk – Almaty – Shymkent – ​​Tashkent – ​​Ashgabat – Tehran – Istanbul is much cheaper and more powerful, and the Iranian market is very promising, especially in light of the realization of Iran’s high potential after the lifting of sanctions. The cost of delivery by rail is $1,700 and for delivery by road – about $2,700 per TEU. The potential capacity of this route is the largest among all of the above and is equal to 300 thousand TEU per year.

Rice. 1. The main promising directions of the economic belt of the New Silk Road (http://valdaiclub.com)

Russia and the New Silk Road

In addition to the currently operating route from China to Europe along the Trans-Siberian Railway, along which 68.5 thousand TEU were transported in transit in the first half of 2016, China is also interested in other options for cooperation with Russia in the transport sector within the framework of the NSR. This is a high-speed railway (HSR) Beijing - Moscow with the launch of regular container trains. The railway distance will be 8,000 km, and the delivery time of goods will be reduced from 5 days to 30 hours.

Among others, the Chinese corporation China Railway Eryuan Engineering Group Co, Ltd was hired to design and carry out engineering work. The first section of the route on the Russian side - the Moscow-Kazan high-speed line - is planned to be completed by 2021. The second planned section, which is also integrated into the Moscow-Beijing high-speed transport corridor, was announced by the government of the Chelyabinsk region - the Yekaterinburg-Chelyabinsk high-speed railway project (standard construction and launch dates have not yet been determined).

Unfortunately, the memorandums and agreements of JSC Russian Railways do not contain specific information about the completion dates of construction, the volume of planned cargo transportation, or the manufacturing companies of light container trains that should run along the route.

Construction of the first stage of the road was postponed to 2017, and the launch of the first trains to 2021. Although, according to the Russian Railways subsidiary OJSC "High-Speed ​​Railways", which is the customer for the design of the Moscow-Kazan high-speed railway, the start of construction was planned for 2014, and completion for 2018. Failure to meet deadlines for the completion of facilities within the framework of the NSR project gives an undeniable advantage to competing countries in the struggle to attract transit cargo flows.

Another option for cooperation under the motto “One Belt, One Road” can be considered the integration of the Northern Sea Route through the Arctic into the program for the development of transit transportation from China. Technically, transit through the Northern Sea Route is possible; it will reduce the delivery time of goods from China to Europe by two weeks compared to transportation through the Suez Canal. Trial shipments of cargo were transported by the Chinese company COSCO in 2013 and 2015. The total volume of freight transportation of transit goods along the Northern Sea Route in 2015 did not exceed 100 thousand tons.

The main problems of this route are the limited shipping period - four months a year, the need to maintain an icebreaker fleet to escort merchant ships and unpredictable ice conditions even in summer. An undeniable advantage is that the entire Northern Sea Route is located in the water area Russian Federation, and therefore is not subject to any sanctions or external restrictions on shipping.

However, the lack of modern equipped deep-sea ports on the Northern Sea Route as transport hubs for trans-Arctic shipping, as well as the infrastructure for navigation, ship maintenance and rescue, reduces the prospects for the development of this route more than foreign policy factors.

Competitors and challenges of Russia

China will seek to extract maximum benefits from the project, both economically and politically. According to the strategy for the development of all transport routes of the NSR, investments, technologies, materials and equipment for the construction of railways, logistics terminals, highways and any infrastructure should be predominantly Chinese.

This strategy implements the main goals of the project set by China: expanding the sales market and, as a result, reducing the problem of excess capacity within the country; promoting the economic development of China's interior, especially Xinjiang Uygur and Inner Mongolia, as transit container train routes pass through these areas; expanding the internationalization of the yuan; increasing the export of high-tech products, for example, for the construction of highways.

Russia may face persistent attempts by China to impose favorable terms of cooperation on it in the field of infrastructure renewal, construction of new transport routes and cargo terminals.

If we consider the issue of competition between Russia and other countries participating in the project in terms of the choice of transportation routes, then for rail shipments Kazakhstan may act as a competitor if it quickly develops its roads and provides favorable tariffs for the transit of goods. If cargo from China enters Russia through Orenburg or Chelyabinsk, using Kazakhstani railways for transportation, and not through Far East, Zabaikalsk or Novosibirsk, then the Trans-Siberian Railway will receive less transit cargo and profit for their transportation.

An alternative transit route through Kazakhstan, bypassing the territory of Russia, is also competitive - the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor, the participating countries of which are China, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. The Kazakh authorities announce an increase in transportation volumes on this route to 300 thousand TEU by 2020.

Currently held in Kazakhstan economic policy“Bright Path”, designed for 2014-2019, which is aimed at creating transport and logistics corridors within the country. One of the priorities of this policy is to attract transit cargo transportation from China to Europe with transshipment at the port of Aktau and further shipment along the Caspian Sea through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey to Europe. Experts believe that those countries where cargo is transshipped from one mode of transport to another receive the greatest benefits from transit, which is why Kazakhstan is actively modernizing the port and access roads to it.

If we do not take into account the difference in the cost of delivery through the territory of Russia and bypassing it, which can be leveled through agreements between other transit countries, then until transit routes in Kazakhstan are fully modified, cargo will enter the territory Customs Union through the Zabaikalsk railway border crossing, which allows loading the Trans-Siberian Railway and delivering cargo to Europe through the port of St. Petersburg. Competitive advantage This border crossing is that for transit container trains from China there is priority in terms of customs clearance. In addition, further delivery to the final recipient of the cargo occurs across the territory of one country without additional transshipments to another mode of transport.

A competitor to Russian ports in the Caspian Sea, in addition to the Kazakh Aktau, accordingly, is the Azerbaijani port of Baku. Was built in 2014 new complex Baku International Sea Trade Port, while a ferry terminal was put into operation as part of the first stage of the project. Work is currently underway to reconstruct the railway infrastructure, international highways, and energy supply systems to bring communication and signaling systems into compliance with international standards. Completion of the project is planned for 2017, then the total throughput of the port will be 21-25 million tons of cargo per year, including 1 million TEU.

When transporting transit cargo from China via the southern route, Russia is not included in the cargo turnover at all. The presence of such competition between potential transit countries makes it possible for China to obtain favorable conditions for itself in all countries included in the project.

Summary

The multivariate development of the project from China’s point of view is an undeniable advantage in negotiations with Russia in the field of defending its interests. China's ability to use alternative transit routes through other countries will allow it to insist on receiving more favorable conditions from the Russian Federation.

It will be necessary to search for levers of influence that will not directly depend on changes in the transport services market in the NSR countries. These could be decisions made within the EAEU that level out imbalances in the provision of transit transport services by countries that simultaneously participate in the New Silk Road project and are members of the EAEU.

Russia's absolute advantage should be the ability to quickly offer the most diverse transit options with a flexible approach to tariff pricing, simplified customs clearance procedures for goods traveling to Europe, and the use of unified carriage documents.

At the same time, it is necessary to show sufficient rigidity in meeting the deadlines for the implementation of federal programs for the modernization, construction and development of transport infrastructure. The choice of contractors for construction should be in favor of Russian companies, and the involvement of foreign workers should be clearly regulated. It is also important to try to provide projects as much as possible with materials and equipment produced in Russia, accepting mainly investments and technologies from Chinese partners. This approach will stimulate the development of the Russian economy and help increase business activity, the growth of industrial production within the country and the improvement of the socio-economic situation of the regions.

Seaports No. 9 (2016)

Dina Bogdashova

China has launched a major economic project: the government has decided to create a new Silk Road - an economic corridor that will connect continents with each other through a chain of infrastructure projects. This project could change the economic map of the world and is perceived by many as the first “bell” about the beginning of the battle between East and West for supremacy in Asia, observers say.

In September 2013, Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited the capital of Kazakhstan. In Astana, he agreed on China's purchase of a stake in Kashagan, one of the largest oil fields in the world. It was then that the Chinese leader voiced the idea of ​​the “One Belt, One Road” project - this is a land and sea version of the new Great Silk Road.

The New Silk Road is not just some highway or railway. This is a rather daring idea in its scope. When its construction is completed, it will connect Asia, Europe, Africa and even Latin America. A chain of infrastructure projects will create the world's largest economic corridor. The project will cover 4.4 billion people, and the volume of industrial production within its borders will amount to $21 trillion.

According to the China Development Bank, about $900 billion will be invested in the One Belt, One Road project, and investment plans cover 60 countries. Attractive instruments have been created to promote the project, the main one being the $40 billion Silk Road Development Fund with the possibility of additional capitalization.

China is considering the development of six key corridors: China - Mongolia - Russia; New Eurasian Bridge; China - Central and Western Asia; China - Indochina Peninsula; China - Pakistan; Bangladesh - China - India - Myanmar.

On land, a high-speed rail network is planned, starting in Yunnan province and connecting to Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Another network of roads, railways and energy pipelines will start in Sinai and go west, all the way to Belgium, writes The Quartz.

Sea routes should connect the South China Sea with the Indian Ocean and the South Pacific. China will begin to defend its own sea ​​routes- the corresponding strategy has already been presented. It states that the Chinese Navy is moving from protecting territorial waters to protecting China's interests in the world's oceans.

Photo: The Quartz

It should be noted that China does not need to build all these thousands of miles of railways and other facilities - much of the infrastructure already exists. The trick is to tie it all together.

The New Silk Road is an extremely ambitious, long-term project that reflects China's aspirations as a new, rising superpower. Beijing certainly wants to capitalize on this investment. In addition, China hopes to strengthen political contacts and create a transport network from Pacific Ocean to the Baltic Sea, reduce barriers to trade and investment, expand payment systems in national currencies. Experts believe that China is now clearly emerging as a global power.

How did this idea even come about? Over the past 20 years, China has grown rapidly due to government investment in infrastructure. This boom has created huge industries that create millions of jobs. But the model has exhausted itself - China has already basically built everything, and there is a need to bring all these companies to foreign markets in order to support economic growth and keep people busy, writes Forbes.

But perhaps not everything planned is destined to happen. At the end of 2014, Mexico abruptly canceled a deal with China to build a railway. The cost of the contract was estimated at $3.75 billion. Japan also began to challenge the Chinese plans. It has begun submitting competing bids to build high-speed rail and other projects in Indonesia, Thailand and several other countries, offering low-interest loans and sometimes better technology.

A strong move by China, in turn, was the creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which included 57 founding members. This international financial organization was created to stimulate financial interaction in the Asia-Pacific region, implement infrastructure projects, and expand integration processes. Representatives of the bank's 57 founding countries will gather in Beijing on June 29 to sign an agreement to launch the organization by the end of the year. Given China's contribution to the bank's total capital ($100 billion is the largest), it can be expected to lobby for its interests in developing projects as part of the grand idea of ​​creating global infrastructure.

What projects are already underway?

China's global trade project to create a new Silk Road has started in Hungary. In early June, the Foreign Ministers of Hungary and China, Peter Szijjártó and Wang Yi, signed a memorandum of understanding on the construction of the “Silk Road Economic Belt” and the “Maritime Silk Road of the 21st Century” as part of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative. At the same time, Wang Yi promised Hungary the role of “the locomotive and development leader” of the project and noted: “History will show that this will be wise and the right choice".

Xi Jinping promised to invest $250 billion in South America over the next 10 years. IN Latin America China mines copper and oil, builds houses and hydroelectric dams, highways and railways. From 2000 to 2013, trade turnover between China and the countries of this region increased more than 20 times. The key to increasing China's role in the region could be the construction of a transoceanic canal in Nicaragua.

In January, China and the African Union agreed on a plan to develop roads, railways and airports to link all 54 countries. African countries. And these plans are already underway, including an 875-mile coastal railway in Nigeria ($13 billion), a 500-mile railway connecting the Kenyan cities of Nairobi and Mombasa ($3.8 billion), and railways in Ethiopia and Chad ($4 billion). and $5.6 billion). China's maritime ambitions are also concentrated here, which include the creation of modern ports in a number of states. All these offshore and onshore projects are on a par with resource investments. Thus, the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has large oil projects in Chad and Mozambique. Chinese manufacturers are also building factories on the continent, counting on cheap labor.

Pakistan is critical to China's New Silk Road. China has already invested $42 billion in the country's infrastructure projects. Yes, the countries have always been allies. But China has a specific goal here: it wants to contain Uyghur separatists who have been fomenting violence in the western province of Xinjiang. Some of these separatists have refuge in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and Beijing has been pressing both countries to hand over Uyghurs living there to authorities. In addition, transporting goods through Pakistan will help China eliminate the need to use the Strait of Malacca. Beijing fears that if relations with Washington become truly hostile, the US could block the narrow strait and leave the country without an important trade route.

China's influence is also growing in Central Asia, as a result of which Russia's traditional dominance in the region is being called into question. Turkmenistan, for example, supplies more than half of the gas imported by China; China takes oil from Kazakhstan (the country has a $5 billion stake in the Kashagan oil field). The republic also signed $15 billion in gas and uranium contracts with Uzbekistan.

Cooperation with Russia

Russia is considered a “key partner” in Beijing within the framework of the New Silk Road project. However, this idea promises the country not only opportunities, but also risks. Recently, a Russian-Chinese conference on the issue of integration was held at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Chinese representatives claim that the new Silk Road will allow Russian producers to enter the markets of Cambodia, Burma, Thailand and Malaysia. In addition, new logistics centers will appear on the territory of the Russian Federation. Russian experts point out risks. “The Russians have a joke: what is the difference between a man and a male? A man is the one who has money. Not having the same financial resources as China, Russia will be uncompetitive in this belt, although Beijing does not at all want to bring us harm,” believes Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Svetlana Glinkina (quote from Nezavisimaya Gazeta). In fact, Russia today is 4.5 times more dependent on China than China is on Russia.

The Russian-Chinese agreements cover eight projects, starting with , which will link Moscow with Kazan and will continue to Beijing, connecting the two countries with Kazakhstan. The contract was won by the Chinese Railway Group. At the same time, another high-speed railway will connect the Chinese province of Girin with Vladivostok, the main Far Eastern port of Russia. Cooperation between the two countries in the field of energy is also actively developing. For example, in May, the Chinese Three Gorges entered into an agreement to build a hydroelectric power station near the Russian-Chinese border.

The first bell

“Great powers love not only to create their own clubs, but to transform their economic power into geopolitical weight. By developing its ties with neighboring and more distant countries, China is setting its own parameters,” writes the Financial Times. According to the publication, China does not intend to turn the established world order upside down. At least for now. Despite competition from the US East Asia, China will become the leading power of Eurasia. And the West will have to decide whether it is ready to take part in someone else’s project, the FT summarizes.

"The project (new Silk Road - ed.) is aimed at revolutionary changes economic map of the world. For many, it is perceived as the first signal about the beginning of the battle between East and West for supremacy in Eurasia,” writes OilPrice. “Will the United States join this attempt? If the creation of a new Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, which deliberately excludes Russia and China, can shed light on what is happening, then US participation (in the Chinese project - ed.) is unlikely. Opposition to it is obvious,” the publication continues. At the same time, in his opinion, most of the world business community will certainly join the new Silk Road - otherwise it risks not keeping up with the new “gold rush” flaring up in Asia. Unlikely that many international companies will miss out on such a promising idea, which, if successfully implemented, will contribute to the rapid growth of the global economy and help overcome the consequences of the economic crisis, the article says.

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Comments

Andrey Betker 23:56, 06/16/2015

Valery Volozhin 13:44, 06/16/2015

Valery Volozhin del-comment 23:00, 06/16/2015

Del-comment andreev110951yandexru 06:43, 06/17/2015

China is ready to continue to fulfill its role as one of the world's leaders. This country cares more than most national interests and their effectiveness. However, China's global initiatives, such as New Silk Road, have the potential to catalyze the entire global economy. Only the process of creating the infrastructure of this project will bring dividends to all participating countries. The Chinese government launched an initiative "One Belt and One Road" in 2013. It is one of the main tasks economic development and the country's diplomacy. The goal of the project is to connect Asia, Africa and Europe with China through five different routes.

China's internal goal in the New Silk Road project

China's advanced regions are located along the country's east coast. Connecting the underdeveloped western regions with Europe and Asia will create opportunities for progress and economic growth. The development of an economic corridor from Beijing to Eastern Europe has brought significant benefits to the Chinese economy. Over the past 3 years, more than 40 agreements have been concluded in 10 key areas. These contracts contributed more than US$3.1 trillion to the economy.

Penetration into new markets

The Trump administration is actively promoting protectionist policies, and the United States is one of the main importers of Chinese goods. Thus, the idea of ​​deepening and expanding new trade relations is a matter of survival for China. Project "Economic Belt" is already bearing fruit. For example, exports of goods to participating countries exceed income from trade with Europe and the USA. Project participants also receive an increase in the supply of imported goods and opportunities for the development of international trade.

Increasing the role of the yuan in international payments

China is actively promoting its national payment system and has opened clearing banks in eight countries. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Silk Road Investment Fund are used for international expansion. This trend will change global trade and reduce the importance of the US dollar on the international stage.

Connecting economic zones through the New Silk Road

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) serves good example combinations of transport and energy projects. Under CPEC, the development of a port in Gwadar will give China direct access to the Indian Ocean. This will significantly reduce the time of transportation by sea to Europe and the fast-growing markets of Africa.

The New Silk Road will eventually reveal its full significance for the international community. Already, the first projects are creating new routes, opening sales markets and changing current logistics connections.