Russia's unique position, with European countries on one side and Asian countries on the other, allows it to trade both goods at the same time. Now a huge amount of cargo can be delivered bypassing our country, but, as a rule, this is not always done. And the new Silk Road still remains relevant. In ancient times, when there were practically no alternative options, overland trade with China brought huge profits. And now this situation remains at approximately the same level.

Story

It is not known exactly when exactly such a definition arose and trade began. However, according to many sources, this is unlikely to have happened later than the 2nd century AD. By that time, China had already become a huge empire, uniting previously disparate states, and an era of prosperity had begun. Despite the rather closed economy and policy of rejection of foreigners, the need for trade with the outside world was obvious. However, nearby neighbors could not provide practically anything that was not available in the Empire itself. It was then that the Silk Road arose, linking Europe and Asia together.

Silks, porcelain, jewelry and many other goods flowed from China to the west, and leather, furs, carpets and so on were sent in the opposite direction. All this contributed to the prosperity of all regions located in close proximity to the caravan route and, as a consequence, the states to which these lands belonged. Including Russia. The new economic Silk Road has become a logical continuation of ancient ties, quite for a long time torn apart by the policies of both China and Russia. Nowadays such trading may not be as significant as in ancient times, but it still remains very profitable.

Definition

The New Silk Road, the route of which runs straight from China to Europe, is a transport network. It includes all the necessary infrastructure, including the Trans-Siberian Railway used, and the remaining elements necessary for the non-stop movement of many tons of cargo. As of 2007, the total volume of goods shipped from Asia was valued at US$600 billion. Of these, $6,000,000,000. USA is transported by land. Even though this is a small part of the total mass, the amount itself is very significant.

Modern Silk Road

It's no secret that most of the world's industry is concentrated in China. Due to the low cost of labor, production there is incredibly profitable. However, for constant development it is necessary to increase the number of buyers and deliver goods as quickly as possible. This is what caused the creation of the new Silk Road and even formed the basis for the planned growth of the Chinese economy. Thus, it is assumed that, based on the experience already available in antiquity, this trade route will contribute to the development of remote areas of the PRC, which traditionally lag far behind the center. In addition, the increase in cargo traffic and infrastructure development will benefit other countries on whose territory all this will take place. Actually, just like in ancient times. Naturally, such a policy was gladly accepted in Russia, Kazakhstan and other states related in one way or another to this trade.

One belt - one way

This is the name by which this concept is known in China. The New Silk Road, as we usually call it, was proposed by the Chairman of the People's Republic of China back in 2013. In 2015, rapid development began, aimed at maximizing the efficiency of growth in cargo traffic and increasing trade volumes. For example, a unique, longest railway route was launched, which starts in Harbin and ends only in Hamburg. This has never existed in the world before. A very important fact is that transportation time with its help has been reduced by almost half, compared with other options (not counting, of course, air transportation).

Development continues in 2016, new railways are being created, old ones are being reconstructed, and so on. Russia has even created a special economic zone in which goods can remain for a long time without the need to go through customs. Of course, this also had a positive impact on the development of trade. There is still enough time left until the end of 2017, but we can already say that this project has received even more opportunities and has had an extremely positive impact on at least two main participating countries.

Benefit for Russia

Our country traditionally benefits from the development of trade. The New Silk Road gives Russia, if not more than China, then not much less:

• As part of infrastructure development, the situation of the population in such problem regions as Afghanistan, Pakistan and so on will significantly improve. This will stabilize the situation in these states and, in theory, will reduce the pressure of drug traffickers, who feel almost free there. If the population sees an opportunity to make a good profit absolutely legally, there is a possibility that they will at least partially abandon other types of activities.
• Development Far East and Siberia without huge cargo traffic is almost impossible. This is exactly what the New Silk Road offers. Sales markets are secured, the number of jobs and the flow of tourists increases, which has a positive effect on these regions of the country.
• Due to European sanctions, trade with China comes first. The more intense it is, the better for the country's economy. In addition, such a “caravan trail” improves relations between Russia and China, creating strong alliance ties that are interesting to both sides at once.
• The problem in remote areas of our country is largely due to the fact that it is simply not profitable to develop infrastructure there. Even large investments will not pay off very quickly. And this can also be solved by the New Silk Road project. If the money spent begins to return to the treasury much faster, then the growth in the welfare of the country’s regions will also be rapid.
• Freight transit brings significant profits without special investments. This system worked both in ancient times and remains absolutely relevant now. No one will refuse to receive additional income in the conditions of a permanent financial crisis in the world.

Benefit for China

As already mentioned, the main feature of the new route is its benefits for all participants. China is promoting the New Silk Road as actively as possible for the following reasons:

• China is developing its transport network at a tremendous pace. More railways and other types of roads are being built there than in the entire world combined. However, it is already clear that this cannot continue indefinitely. Ultimately, everyone employed in this area will be left without work, and this in a country where unemployment is already a huge problem. The new version of the Silk Road will allow them to offer the capabilities of their companies to other countries, and even if they receive at least part of the orders, this will ensure decades of stable work. During this time, it will be possible to find a way out of the situation.
• The Chinese economy is vitally interested in creating a direct connection between its railways and similar transport routes in other countries. For example, in 2015, this country is ready to allocate 300 billion rubles for the construction of a railway to connect with Kazan. Even in such a situation, the benefits of both parties are taken into account, and if specialists from China are supposed to be directly involved in the construction, then the rolling stock and materials are entrusted to Russia. The economies of both countries will receive their income.
• The financial system of the People's Republic of China is focused on continuous growth of production. In recent years, this development has slowed down too much due to a glut of goods. The Silk Road will provide access to new markets, which will allow us to make another breakthrough.
• The standard option for delivering goods by water takes about 45-60 days. Using land transportation it can be reduced to 10-13 days. The faster customers receive their goods, the better for both parties.

Alternative options

Georgia and Ukraine tried to implement their own versions of the Silk Road. As you know, these countries are officially on unfriendly relations with Russia. However, the railway route bypassing our country is absolutely unprofitable, much longer, and therefore did not arouse much interest. The Ukrainian version is even more expensive and takes longer. Despite the loud statements of the government of this country, the train, which somehow reached the border with China a full 16 days later, returned empty. Potential clients calculated the costs and returned to the proven option of the New Silk Road through Russia.

• The name of this trade route was formed because of the main goods exported from China. However, silk was far from the only type of cargo.
• The route passed both through deserts with their oases and through mountain passes. For people of that time, who rarely left their homes and had little idea of ​​what distant lands looked like, such a trip was almost the only way see the world in all its diversity.
• Both large caravans of 300 camels and small groups of traders moved along the Silk Road.

Conclusion

IN modern world trade has a very important and allows any countries to develop quickly. The New Silk Road is an excellent opportunity for all participants in the project to strengthen their position in the world, become richer and stronger. In addition, constant interaction between different countries makes their relations stronger.

The route should become fully operational after the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway (Turkey) is put into operation. In mid-October, the head of Azerbaijan Railways CJSC, Javid Gurbanov, called the delivery date November 2016. For now, cargo containers from China delivered to the Kazakh port of Aktau and then on to Baku will proceed from there to the ports of Georgia, and then be transported by container ships to Turkey.

The trial launch of the route took place back in February 2015, Garibashvili spoke at the Tbilisi forum of the “Silk Road Economic Belt” in September. In July, the Nomadexpress test container train traveled along the route Shihezi (China) - Dostyk (Kazakhstan) - Aktau - Alyat (Azerbaijan), covering 3.5 thousand km through Kazakhstan and the Caspian Sea in five days. It delivered flat cars designed to transport 82 containers weighing 20 tons each.

“The Trans-Asian-Caucasian train can reduce travel time by five times compared to sea transportation. If, for example, sea transport from China requires 40-45 days, then along the new railway route cargo will arrive from China to Georgia within nine days,” he indicated in his report “The Role of Transport and Transit Corridors in Ensuring International Cooperation for sustainable development" (*.pdf) in September this year by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. In the document, he referred to data provided, among other things, by the Georgian government.

In November of this year, cooperation went further: in Istanbul, representatives of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, China and Turkey established a joint consortium to transport goods from China to Europe, bypassing Russia. The enterprise included Mishgeng Logistics (China), the Kazakh subsidiary of KTZ Express (the Kazakhstan Temir Zholy railway company), the Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company, the Azerbaijani Karvan Logistics and Trans Caucasus Terminals (a subsidiary of the Georgian Railway). Türkiye is represented in the consortium as an associate member. The train that arrived in Tbilisi from China on Sunday was the first test train; the railway operator was a consortium.

As Igbal Huseynov, deputy head of Azerbaijan Railways, suggests, up to 54 million tons of cargo per year can pass along the trans-Caspian route. By 2020, up to 300-400 thousand containers could be delivered to Turkey and Europe this way, he said at the beginning of December at a conference in Odessa. From 2016, the consortium expects to begin transporting goods through Ukraine to Northern and Eastern Europe - the governor of the Odessa region, Mikheil Saakashvili, insists on using the capacity of the Odessa port.

Silk nets

The Trans-Caspian route is not the only promising railway route from China to Europe in development. Since 2011, communication has been established between Chinese Chongqing and German Duisburg: the total length of the route is 11.2 thousand km, and before reaching Germany, the Chinese train passes through the territory of Kazakhstan, Russia and Poland. Since the launch of communication in this direction, China has transported goods worth a total of $2.5 billion along it. A total of 11 Chinese cities, the largest industrial hubs, have freight rail connections with Europe.

The impetus for the development of infrastructure projects was given by the ambitious concept of the “Silk Road Economic Belt”, formulated by Chinese President Xi Jinping in September 2013 during his tour of the countries Central Asia.

This concept involves the development of economic cooperation on the continent through the construction of transport infrastructure. Increasing its efficiency, coupled with the elimination of trade barriers, should lead to an increase in the volume of mutual trade in the region, as well as increase the role of national currencies, primarily the Chinese yuan, in mutual economic transactions. In addition, the implementation of infrastructure projects should give impetus to the development of China's sparsely populated and economically lagging inland provinces, from Inner Mongolia to the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.

To develop infrastructure projects, at the initiative of China, a $40 billion Silk Road Fund was established, co-founded by the Central Bank of China, other state banks and state corporations.

Beijing is placing its main bet on railway communication - this industry has been chosen as the main export industry. “It is expected that railways will be the locomotive for increasing the export of Chinese high-tech equipment,” wrote (*.pdf) Deputy Director of IMEMO RAS Vasily Mikheev, Sector Head of the same institute Sergei Lukonin and Korean researcher Jae Sung Hong.

Following the Chinese railway workers, equipment and software manufacturers, providers of engineering and other services, as well as banks, insurance and other companies should come to the regions, experts describe the PRC’s expansion strategy.

“The Silk Road strategy is a strategy to stimulate Chinese exports,” Jonathan Holslag, a professor at the Free University of Brussels, explained to RBC. “Most of the railways and infrastructure projects built with Chinese assistance are part of a trade pattern in which China runs a trade surplus and other countries run trade deficits.” Beijing will work on this strategy for the next 10-15 years.

In addition, according to Mikheev and his colleagues, the tasks of the Silk Road also include ensuring China’s energy security - the country is highly dependent on energy supplies. Thus, in 2013, according to estimates from the Ministry of Land and Natural Resources of China, China’s dependence on oil supplies was 57%, and by 2020 this figure could rise to 66% with the prospect of further increase.

At the end of 2013, according to official data, China imported 280 million tons of oil. Of these, 10.17 million tons (86 million barrels) were in Kazakhstan. The raw materials were supplied through a pipeline connecting Central Kazakhstan and North-West China, its length is 745 km. In 2013, Turkmenistan provided 52% of China's gas needs. In 2014, China bought up to 100 billion cubic meters. m of gas from the Central Asian states. In the spring of 2014, it became known that the Chinese oil and gas company CNPC intends to invest $4 billion in an industrial zone in the south of Turkmenistan.

The Russian government this week approved an intergovernmental agreement with China on the purchase of a 9.9% stake in Yamal LNG from NOVATEK, said the head of the Federal Antimonopoly Service Igor Artemyev. The buyer was the Silk Road Fund.

Together with Gazprom

In addition, China cooperates with the Russian Gazprom. In May, the head of Gazprom, Alexey Miller, and the vice-president of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Wang Dongjin, signed an agreement on the basic conditions for gas supplies from Russia to China via the western route.

The framework agreement on supplies via the western route was signed in November 2014 and provides for the annual supply of 30 billion cubic meters to China. m of gas from the fields of Western Siberia via the Altai gas pipeline.

Place of Russia

The “Silk Road” and the concept of Eurasian integration promoted by Russia on the basis of the Eurasian Economic Union, despite all the mutual assurances from Beijing and Moscow, can hardly be considered complementary. At the same time, the Chinese leadership constantly emphasizes that the project implies exclusively economic cooperation and does not aim at any political integration.

Economically, the interests of the two projects are already colliding. Thus, in Beijing, the CIS created on the initiative of Moscow is causing concern. Customs Union(TS, in addition to Russia, it includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan). The formation of uniform tariffs for the import of Chinese products into these countries may negatively affect the prospects for growth in the volume of mutual trade between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan with China. As experts from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development calculated back in 2012, an increase in tariffs by 2% could lead to a reduction in Chinese imports to the CU countries by 2-3%.

As IMEMO notes, the CU is gradually tightening its trade regime with China. In recent years, the Eurasian Economic Commission has repeatedly launched investigations against Chinese manufacturers, imposing anti-dumping duties on them. Only in 2015, the EEC introduced anti-dumping duties, among other things, on Chinese seamless steel pipes (used for drilling and operating oil and gas wells), tires for trucks, flat cold-rolled stainless steel products, crawler bulldozers and citric acid.

At the same time, Russia has been losing economic competition to China in Central Asia for several years now. The volume of bilateral trade between China and the countries of Central Asia in 2013 amounted to $50.3 billion, in 2014 against the backdrop of an economic slowdown - $46 billion. At the same time, last year Beijing approved the allocation of an investment package of $30 billion to Astana, Tashkent received a $15 billion deal , the total amount of economic assistance to Kyrgyzstan amounted to $3 billion.

The volume of Russian investments in the region in 2013-2014 amounted to only $15 billion, and the volume of trade turnover, according to Rosstat and the Federal Customs Service, was $30.5 billion in 2013 and $27.8 billion in 2014.

IMEMO experts believe that one of the challenges of the Chinese project is the final transformation of Russia into “player No. 2” in this region. “For the first time, Russia finds itself in the role of a follower player, that is, China will more firmly defend its economic interests,” they argue.

Even the very development of the region’s railway network in the forms in which Beijing sees it could significantly affect the prospects for including the Far Eastern regions of Russia in economic cooperation with Europe. “In the event of the likely passage of the main railway line of the Silk Road through Russian territory through Orenburg or Chelyabinsk, the rest of the Trans-Siberian Railway and the BAM will remain unused. Kazakhstan will receive the majority of transit payments,” IMEMO experts say.

One-man theater

But it is too early to talk about transport and infrastructure breakthroughs in China. In 2014, China's bilateral trade volume with the European Union, according to the European Commission, amounted to €466 billion ($619 billion at the average annual rate). Of this, rail transportation ordered by cargo owners, according to Chinese customs authorities, accounted for only $4.9 billion, indicated in November The South China Morning Post.

Due to many factors, rail communication along this route is unprofitable and inferior to sea transportation, says RBC Stapran. As The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) notes, Railway will never replace sea transportation. A train can carry at most several hundred containers, while container ships can carry a load of 18 thousand containers.

The maximum cargo weight of a typical 40-foot container is 9.6 tons. The cost of transporting such a container by rail is $8 thousand. Transporting the same container by sea would cost about $3 thousand, and delivering an equivalent cargo by air would cost $37 thousand, calculated specialized publication JOC.com.

“The tradeoff between price and speed makes rail shipments viable for high-value goods China exports to Europe, such as laptops, or imports from there, such as car components,” the WSJ noted. In the case of the Chongqing-Duisburg route, China, for example, supplies components for Hewlett Packard products.

Moreover, Stapran argues, if we take the Silk Wind project, then at present this direction is not equipped with the appropriate infrastructure, for example, unloading terminals. “A long road is only a hundredth part of what is needed for efficient and profitable transportation of goods. For now, this can only be considered as a pilot project,” the expert tells RBC.

SCMP concludes that the Silk Road has had a "slow start" so far. Logistics companies have faced difficulties in European cities filling empty containers with goods exported from EU countries. According to China Railways, in the first half of 2015, 200 trains were sent from China to Europe, and only 50 arrived back with cargo.

“Only a few containers are returned within a month, we can’t even fill the train,” the publication quotes Gong Qinghua, sales director of one of the freight carriers operating on the Yiwu (Zheqiang Province) - Madrid route. Eight full trains a month depart from this industrial city specializing in the production of souvenirs towards Spain. There is simply no demand for European products in Yiwu, says Gong.

Another factor is the structure of European imports to China: while it is easy to deliver consumer goods by rail to the EU, deliveries of European heavy engineering products by rail cannot be carried out in the opposite direction. According to the European Commission (*.pdf), in the structure of Chinese exports to the EU in 2014, 12.3% were textile goods (second position after engineering products - 46.6%), and another 9.2% were “various finished products " The European Union exported primarily machinery and equipment (31.8%), and secondarily transport equipment (26.3%). The wariness of Europeans towards Chinese logistics companies also plays a role, SCMP cites the opinion of the head of the consulting company Silk Route Rail, Darryl Hadaway.

According to Li Gang, a fellow at the Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy social sciences, for at least the next three to four years, rail transport between China and Europe will not be commercially profitable. Until now, this mega-project has been a “one-man show” for Beijing, but the Silk Road is a long-term strategy for China, says Li Gang. According to him, the potential of China's railway connection with Europe is enormous, since relations between China and the EU are "entering a golden era."

With the participation of Alexander Ratnikov

China has long laid claim to a much more significant role than the one it currently plays in world politics and economics. Although even now the Chinese economy is one of the most dynamic and rapidly developing, China accounts for about 15% of world GDP (this is third place after the European Union and the United States), Beijing is seeking to strengthen the country’s position even more. One of the ways to strengthen China’s position is to implement the “One Belt, One Road” concept or simply the “New Silk Road” concept.

Xi Jinping announced the concept of “One Belt, One Road” back in 2013. It is already clear that this concept has become the basis guiding foreign policy China for the coming decades. By 2049, the centenary of the People's Republic of China, the country should firmly establish its position as a world leader. This goal is set by the leadership of the CPC and, apparently, it can really be achieved. As part of achieving this goal, China is building relations with the states of Eurasia based on the concept of “One Belt, One Road.” First of all, China is interested in developing relations with the countries of Central Asia, the Caucasus, of Eastern Europe.

In fact, the idea of ​​uniting economically less developed states around China arose a long time ago, during the reign of Mao Zedong. Chairman Mao divided the then world into the “first world” (capitalist countries of Europe, the USA), the “second world” (socialist camp) and the “third world” - developing countries. China, according to Mao’s concept, was supposed to lead the movement of the “third world” countries opposing the United States, Europe and the Soviet Union. Now Soviet Union no longer exists, and Russia is not a competitor to China. Beijing’s main task is to “overtake” the United States, and to achieve this task, the PRC seeks to establish relations with as many countries of the world as possible. Eurasian countries China is interested primarily for reasons of providing economic corridors to Europe. In the future, it is with Europe that China will develop relations, competing with the United States for the European market. But this will require economic corridors through which Chinese goods will be sent to EU countries. For the construction of such corridors, a return to the concept of the Silk Road is envisaged - from China through Central Asia and the Caucasus - to Eastern Europe and further to Western Europe.

The very idea of ​​the New Silk Road is a desire to reconstruct the Great Silk Road, which existed since the 2nd century. BC e. The most important trade route of antiquity and the Middle Ages, the Great Silk Road passed through many countries in Asia and Eastern Europe. However, at that time the Silk Road was only a trade transit route from China to Europe, and the New Silk Road is seen as a tool for strengthening China’s influence on other states. With the help of the New Silk Road, Beijing seeks to modernize the entire economic and trade system of Eurasia. Naturally, first of all, this transformation will affect the countries of Central Asia - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Chinese diplomats and businessmen are already actively working here, and ties between Beijing and the former Soviet republics of Central Asia are growing stronger.

China has begun organizing a worldwide system of transport corridors, which, according to the Chinese, should connect China with the whole world - the countries of Central Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Oceania. As part of the New Silk Road, it is planned to build roads and railways, open sea and air routes, lay pipelines and power lines. China plans to bring 4.4 billion people into its orbit of influence through the New Silk Road - more than half of the current population of the Earth.

China includes the following in the development of land routes of the New Silk Road: 1) construction of railways to Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, India, Myanmar, Thailand and Malaysia. The idea of ​​​​building a powerful railway line includes creating a tunnel under the Bosphorus Strait and organizing ferries across the Caspian Sea. The northern corridor to Europe will go through the territory of Kazakhstan and Russia, the central corridor will go through Central Asia and the Caucasus - Azerbaijan and Georgia, and southern corridor has a different direction - through Indochina and Indonesia to the Indian Ocean and further - to the countries of the African continent, to which China has already extended its political and economic influence. These routes should connect all of Asia, but the main task remains to ensure uninterrupted communication between China and other countries of the continent.

How the New Silk Road project affects world politics, is best demonstrated by the current situation in the Middle East. Initially, China planned to organize an economic corridor through Iran and further through Iraq and Syria to the Mediterranean Sea. That is, Syria was seen as a very important link in the Silk Road system. However, this path bypassed Turkey, an important player in Middle Eastern politics. Ankara has long been making plans for Turkey's role in economic exchanges between China and Europe, but the construction of an economic corridor through Syria would leave Turkey on the periphery of the New Silk Road. China was not interested in organizing communication through Turkey also because Turkey has always played a key role in supporting Uyghur separatists operating in Western China (the historical region of East Turkestan, now the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of the People's Republic of China). In addition, the construction of a corridor through Syria seemed more profitable to the Chinese leadership in economic terms.

In order for plans to organize a Syrian corridor not to be realized, it was necessary to shake up the political situation in Syria to such a state that any transit through the territory of this country would not be possible. The war in Syria has become an excellent way to block the One Belt, One Road project in the Mediterranean direction. Since the “revolutions” in the countries of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula - the so-called. Almost seven years have passed since the “Arab Spring”, but the situation in Syria has not stabilized. The war has become protracted, and the actions of armed groups make any attempts to build land routes through this country impossible. We can say that China’s opponents have achieved their goal – building a corridor through Syria is now impossible.

What path remains for China? The Syrian corridor is being replaced by a corridor from Central Asia (Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) through the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and further to Georgia, Batumi, and then to the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea. China is showing great interest in developing economic relations with Georgia and Azerbaijan, which indicates Beijing's far-reaching plans for these Transcaucasian republics. In turn, both Azerbaijan and Georgia are also interested in allowing the Chinese corridor through their territories, since this will allow them to significantly improve their economic situation, including through the construction of infrastructure and attracting investment.

At the beginning of 2018, a free trade agreement between Tbilisi and Beijing comes into force. Georgia has a similar agreement with the European Union. At the same time, Tbilisi, despite long-standing contradictions in relations with Moscow, seeks to receive dividends from cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union, in partnership with which the “One Belt - One Road” project is involved.

A number of Eastern European countries are also interested in developing relations with China. Gradually, Eastern European politicians are beginning to understand that in the European Union they will in any case be destined for a secondary place. The positions of the countries of Eastern Europe are not taken into account by European “heavyweights” when discussing even the most important issues, for example, the placement of migrants. In fact, the countries of Eastern Europe and the Balkan Peninsula are considered by the European Union as resource territories from which cheap labor can be drawn. In addition, the entry of these countries into the European Union and NATO has always been seen as preventing the spread of Russian influence over them. USA and Western Europe in 1989-1990 They didn’t win a major victory over the USSR, pushing Moscow out of Eastern Europe, only to then give up their positions.

Hungary plays a very active role in the development of relations between China and the countries of Eastern and Central Europe. Budapest is a modern “dissident” of the European Union. We know that on a number of fundamental issues Hungary takes a different position from the European Union. This applies to migration policy, attitudes towards same-sex marriage, and sanctions against Russia. It is not surprising that Budapest is seeking to develop an increasingly active relationship with China. Recently, the 16+1 summit was held in Budapest - the sixth in a row. Representatives of China traditionally took part in the summit. What is “16+1” - these are sixteen countries of Eastern and Central Europe, the Balkan Peninsula - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Macedonia, Croatia, Slovenia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Plus one is plus China. Many summit participants are members of the European Union and NATO, but they do not hide their desire to cooperate with China. For Beijing this is another diplomatic victory, but for Brussels it is a cause for concern.

The growing influence of China on the countries of Eastern and Central Europe cannot but worry the leadership of the European Union. During the Cold War, China had virtually no influence over the countries of Eastern Europe under Soviet patronage. For some time, Beijing cooperated only with Albania, Romania and Yugoslavia. In the 1990s, Eastern Europe came under the political and economic influence of the United States and the European Union. However, now the situation is changing dramatically.

Beijing is attracting Eastern European countries with promises of multibillion-dollar investments in the development of national economies. First of all, we're talking about on investments in the development of transport infrastructure and energy modernization. Investments are not only money and new opportunities, they also mean new jobs, and the problem of unemployment in most countries of Eastern Europe and the Balkan Peninsula is very acute. Therefore, regional leaders are very favorable towards the Chinese project.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban even noted that China can provide the countries of Eastern and Central Europe with opportunities that cannot be realized relying only on the resources of the European Union. And indeed it is. The key players of the European Union - France, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands - are no longer able to finance solutions to numerous problems in the countries of Eastern Europe and the Balkan Peninsula. Moreover, they are not seriously concerned about solving these problems, which was clearly demonstrated with the placement of migrants from the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, which became the cause of serious contradictions between the leadership of the European Union and the countries of Eastern Europe. China is already investing billions of dollars in Eastern European countries, and the amount of investment will only grow.

Naturally, Brussels is not very happy with this behavior of the Eastern European states. But what can be done? The world is changing, and China plays a very important role in these changes. More and more countries are beginning to understand that focusing on China in the current global political and economic situation is much more profitable than remaining eternal satellites of the United States and the European Union. Even more frightening for the leaders of the European Union is the fact that Western European countries (here we are talking about the political and cultural concept of “Western Europe”) are increasingly interested in developing relations with China. For example, Austria advocates that the Chinese “New Silk Road” must pass through its territory, fully understanding all the benefits and positive consequences of this step.

We see that China is methodically and successfully moving towards achieving its goal - expanding its economic and then political influence to the countries of Asia, Europe and Africa. The New Silk Road is just one way to expand this influence. But what can the United States do in an attempt to prevent Chinese “dominance” from asserting itself?

The countries of Central Asia are related not only by their common Soviet past. The economic situation everywhere leaves much to be desired, the level of corruption and freedom of speech ratings in all countries are approximately the same, and even population growth is similar. Although, of course, there are differences.

Uzbekistan: Agriculture is retreating

In Uzbekistan, since the collapse of the USSR, the structure of the economy has changed dramatically: previously the share of agriculture exceeded a third, but now it is not even one fifth. Over the past five years, unemployment has increased significantly in the country. The minimum salary is 36 euros, pension is 71 euros. Previously, it was Uzbekistan that “supplied” the majority of migrant workers to the Russian Federation.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Uzbekistan: Political emigrants

Under the rule of Islam Karimov, who harshly suppressed any form of dissent, Uzbekistan accounted for the largest share of political refugees from the region, primarily to Western countries. Many residents of the republic were forced to flee to escape repression after the Uzbek authorities suppressed the uprising in Andijan.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Uzbekistan: Change of President

Since 1991, there have been only two leaders in Uzbekistan. Islam Karimov ruled from 1991 until his death in 2016 (he was 78 years old). After him, Shavkat Mirziyoyev became president. Now he is 59 years old - and it is difficult to guess how long he will “stay” in power. Formally, four parties are represented in parliament plus the environmentalist movement, but independent media call the elections a “political show.”

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Tajikistan: Guest workers leave the Russian Federation

Officially, unemployment in Tajikistan is very low - about 2.5%. However, experts are convinced that this figure is underestimated by at least four times. According to fergananews.com, the average pension in Tajikistan in 2015 was much lower than in other countries - about 30 euros per month. The number of labor migrants from this country in Russia is decreasing: now less than 700 thousand Tajiks live in the Russian Federation.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Tajikistan: Islamic factor

Many foreign fighters IS recruits in Tajikistan, and then, through other countries, transports them to combat areas. Western experts believe that from the point of view of Islamism, Tajikistan is the most vulnerable country in the region. The Tajik authorities use this factor to suppress any dissent.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Tajikistan: 201st military base

The 201st military base of the Russian Federation is located on Tajik territory. In the 90s, the Russian military took part in a peacekeeping mission that stopped civil war in Tajikistan. Now the base exists to serve as a kind of “shield” for the dangers emanating from neighboring Afghanistan. Many Tajiks work at the base as civilian employees, receiving high salaries.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Tajikistan: Persecution of opposition

The head of Tajikistan is Emomali Rahmon. And although he has been in power for 22 years, he is not the first or only president of the country - before him, Tajikistan was led by Kahar Makhkamov and Rakhmon Nabiyev (each for less than a year). There are 4 parties represented in the current composition of the Tajik parliament, but there is no real opposition in the country. HRW said Tajik authorities are arresting and torturing opposition members.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Turkmenistan: Without freedom, but with resources

Turkmenistan has a relatively high average salary - about 290 euros per month (data from asgabad.net). And although more than half the population is employed in agriculture, the Turkmen economy is still extremely dependent on energy exports. The population still does not pay for gas, water and electricity. But in the press freedom ranking, Turkmenistan is in “honorable” third place... from the bottom - 178th.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Turkmenistan: Life after Turkmenbashi

Songs and legends are written about the two local presidents. Saparmurat Niyazov, the famous "Turkmenbashi" - the father of all Turkmen - has ruled (in various positions) since 1985. In 2006, he died, and Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov took over the baton. He is only 59 years old, and he has already won presidential elections three times. It is impossible to talk about any opposition in Turkmenistan, one of the most dictatorial countries in the region.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Kazakhstan: Oil Dependence

The economy of Kazakhstan is the largest in the region and the second in the post-Soviet space. However, its well-being depends closely on the prices of natural resources, including oil. In recent years, the tenge exchange rate has fallen several times. The average salary in the country is about 410 euros (according to forbes.kz).

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Kazakhstan: Astana - business card

Kazakhstan strives to be as close as possible to European culture. Capital Astana - business card countries. The main administrative institutions of the country and the offices of large companies are located here.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Kazakhstan: Under the leadership of a centenarian

Kazakhstan is ruled by the main post-Soviet centenarian - Nursultan Nazarbayev (official title - "Elbasy", leader of the nation). He has been in power since 1989. He won the next election, in 2015, with almost 98% of the vote. There is an opposition in Kazakhstan, but it is under severe pressure from the authorities.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Kyrgyzstan: Issyk-Kul and freedom of speech

Not long ago, Kyrgyzstan’s external debt increased sharply, which complicates the country’s economic situation. But this is where the famous Issyk-Kul is located - and tourism brings a lot of money to the treasury. And press freedom is not bad here: in the Reporters Without Borders ranking, Kyrgyzstan is in 89th place - above all its neighbors, the Russian Federation, Belarus and Ukraine!

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Kyrgyzstan: Bases in Manas and Kant

Kyrgyzstan made money by granting the right to place foreign military bases on its territory. Thus, at the Manas airport near Bishkek until 2014 there was a US military base - among other things, American planes flying to Afghanistan refueled here. And a Russian military base is still located in Kant.

Central Asia: everything is the same, everything is different

Kyrgyzstan: Already four presidents

Compared to other countries in the region, relative democracy reigns in Kyrgyzstan - it has already had its fourth president (including one interim) since 1990, and the first two - Askar Akayev and Kurmanbek Bakiyev - were overthrown as a result of revolutions. Many people remember the tragic events of 2010, when more than 200 people died in the south of the country. The next presidential elections will be held in November 2017.

New Silk Road(Eurasian Land Bridge) is a transport route for moving goods and passengers overland from China to European countries. The route includes the transcontinental railway—the Trans-Siberian Railway—which passes through Russia and second Eurasian continental bridge, passing through Kazakhstan. As of November 2007, about 1% of the $600 billion in goods from Asia to Europe was transported by land each year.

The proposed expansion of the Eurasian Land Bridge includes the construction of railway lines from transcontinental lines to Iran, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Pakistan, Nepal, Afghanistan and Malaysia, among other regions South-East Asia and Transcaucasia (Azerbaijan, Georgia). The route includes the Marmaray tunnel under the Bosphorus, ferry crossings across the Caspian Sea (Azerbaijan-Iran-Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan) and the North-South corridor. The United Nations has proposed further expansion of the Eurasian Land Bridge, including the Trans-Asian Railway project (in fact, it already exists in 2 options).

To develop infrastructure projects in countries along the New Silk Road and the Maritime Silk Road and to promote the sale of Chinese products, the Silk Road Investment Fund was created in December 2014.

Encyclopedic YouTube

1 / 1

Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan are building their “Silk Road”

Subtitles

“New Silk Road” through Kazakhstan and Russia (16 days) compared to the route through the Suez Canal (36 days)

New Silk Road (NSR)- the concept of a new pan-Eurasian (and in the future - intercontinental) transport system, promoted by China in cooperation with Kazakhstan, Russia and other countries. The idea of ​​the New Silk Road is based on the historical example of the ancient Great Silk Road, which operated from the 2nd century. BC e. and was one of the most important trade routes in antiquity and the Middle Ages. The modern NSR is a vital part of China’s development strategy in the modern world - the New Silk Road should not only build the most convenient and fastest transit routes through the center of Eurasia, but also strengthen the economic development of the interior regions of China and neighboring countries, as well as create new markets for Chinese goods.

China is promoting the “New Silk Road” project not just as a revival of the ancient Silk Road, a transport route between East and West, but as a large-scale transformation of the entire trade and economic model of Eurasia, and primarily Central Asia. According to Vladimir Putin, “we are talking about reaching the future new level partnership, implying common economic space throughout the Eurasian continent."

The Chinese call this concept “one belt, one road”. It includes many infrastructure projects that should eventually encircle the entire planet. The project of a worldwide transport corridor system connects Australia and Indonesia, all of Central and East Asia, the Middle East, Europe, Africa and through Latin America goes to the USA. Among the projects planned under the NSP are railways and highways, sea and air routes, pipelines and power lines, and all related infrastructure. According to the most conservative estimates, the NSR will draw 4.4 billion people into its orbit - more than half of the Earth's population.

On May 8, 2015, a joint statement was signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping on cooperation between Russia and China within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union and the trans-Eurasian trade and infrastructure project of the Silk Road economic belt. On June 13, 2015, the world's longest freight railway route Harbin - Hamburg from China to Germany through Russia was launched: trains along this route will take 15 days, which is 2 times faster than the sea route through the Suez Canal.

Project background

The Great Silk Road in ancient times

Regular caravan trade between China and Central Asia began no later than the 2nd century BC. e., when China united into a single empire and the endless internal confrontation between individual Chinese kingdoms gave way to a single foreign policy. In the north, the first Great Wall of China was built to repel the nomadic Huns, maritime trade developed in the southeast, and in the west, Chinese diplomats and merchants set out on long journeys, initially in search of allies against the Huns or for deposits of precious jade in what is now Xinjiang.

The Great Silk Road followed several branch routes:

• The southern branch is from China through the Taklamakan desert, the southern Pamirs, Bactria (Afghanistan), Parthia (Iran), India and the Middle East, from where Chinese goods reached the provinces of the Roman Empire through the Mediterranean Sea, and later to Byzantium, Arab and Western European countries.
• The northern branch is from China through the Turfan oasis, between Altai and Tibet, through the Pamirs to the Fergana Valley, through the Kazakh steppes to Eastern Europe.

China traded not only silk, but also porcelain, tea, rice, jewelry and other items in exchange for gold, silver, leather, wool, carpets, Exotic fruits and other goods from Central Asia. Along the Silk Road, technology was exchanged between East and West - this is how, apparently, gunpowder, paper and other technical achievements of China came to Europe.

The organization of caravan trade required both diplomatic efforts and the creation and support of a complex infrastructure network over thousands of kilometers, where it was necessary to dig wells, create resting and stopping places (caravanserais), arrange river crossings, etc.

Caravan trade along the Great Silk Road had a huge historical meaning. Thus, among the many possible factors and reasons for the fall of the Roman Empire, shortage is called silver coin for the maintenance of the army, which arose, among other things, due to the Romans’ exchange of silver for luxury goods from the East, including silk from China.

Apparently, the Great Silk Road also played a certain role in the emergence of the Old Russian state in the 8th-10th centuries. At that time, due to political instability in the south ( Arab conquests) a significant part of the caravan trade along the northern branch of the route went around the Caspian Sea through Khazaria and Rus' along the river system of the Russian Plain, which contributed to the growth of Russian trading cities, including Kyiv.

In the 13th century, the Mongol Empire united vast areas of Eurasia, and trade along the Silk Road boomed in the subsequent period. It was then that China was visited by the famous Italian traveler Marco Polo, who described his journey in a famous book that inspired many to search for sea routes to the east. And so, then, in the era of the Great Geographical discoveries XVI-XVII centuries, the main volume of trade between East and West began to pass by sea. However, land routes continued to play a major role.

The Great Tea Route - Siberian Highway

Russian-Chinese trade, starting from the era of Peter I, was developed first through Nerchinsk after the conclusion of the Treaty of Nerchinsk in 1689, and then through the border city of Kyakhta, specially founded for customs purposes, after the conclusion of the Treaty of Kyakhta in 1727. Cloth, manufactured goods, furs, and yuft (dressed leather) were exported from Russia to China. Silk, porcelain, gems, and mainly tea, which has since become the national drink of not only the Chinese, but also the Russians.

By the 1740s, the Kyakhta trade ensured the accelerated construction of communication routes between Moscow and Irkutsk - this is how the “Great Tea Route” arose - the Siberian Highway, which became the longest horse-drawn road in the world and anticipated the construction of the Trans-Siberian Railway and the modern network of federal highways in Russia.

New Silk Road: modern projects

Since the 1990s, the current political situation has contributed to increasingly loud statements about plans to recreate the ancient Silk Road, although their implementation continues to be hampered negative factors- basically this is an unstable and tense situation in some countries of Central Asia, especially in Afghanistan.

Since 2008, construction of the transcontinental highway “Western Europe - Western China” began as one of the first examples of the real implementation of the idea of ​​the “New Silk Road”. A sequence of high-speed highways and simply high-class roads built into a single system passes through the territory of China, Kazakhstan and Russia. In China and Kazakhstan, construction is nearing completion. In Russia, the route will include the Moscow-St. Petersburg highway currently under construction, the existing Moscow-Kazan highway, as well as sections of recently built and new highways under construction in Tatarstan and Bashkortostan. In Tatarstan, the road also passes along the longest bridge crossing in Russia - the bridge over the Kama River near the village of Sorochi Gory. The first stage of the bridge complex with a total length of 13,967 meters was commissioned in 2002, the construction of the second stage - a parallel bridge crossing - is close to completion as of 2015.

At the beginning of January 2008 in Beijing, representatives of Russia, China, Mongolia, Belarus, Poland and Germany signed an agreement on regular freight transportation on the railways of these countries with coordination of all issues of customs and border services. Less than a month later, according to this agreement, train traffic began through the territory of Russia (7 thousand kilometers and 6 days of travel). In total, the journey from Beijing to Hamburg takes 9,992 thousand kilometers and 15 days, which is at least twice as fast sea ​​route through the Suez Canal. In addition, transport risk insurance is much cheaper for overland routes. This became another project that received the name “Silk Road” in the media.

In 2009, a trial branch of the Turkmenistan - China gas pipeline was launched in transit through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. In its full form, the project is also called the “Silk Road” with the construction of gas transportation infrastructure in the space between China and Iran, that is, almost along the entire length of the ancient Silk Road.

Project "One Belt - One Road"

In September 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward the concept of the “New Silk Road” under the slogan “One Belt, One Road.” This global strategy, which includes the “Silk Road Economic Belt” and “Maritime Silk Road of the 21st Century” projects, involves the creation of an extensive infrastructure network along the route from the western borders of China through the countries of Central Asia and Iran to Europe.

The implementation of the project for the construction of transport infrastructure (railways, roads, pipelines, ports) should lead to a significant increase in intra-Eurasian trade and intensification economic development the vast inland territories of Eurasia, as well as the countries of South and Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa, where the “New Silk Road” will have to reach (at least in its maritime component). While political, informational and organizational preparation of the project is underway.

In the spring of 2015, the Silk Road Company investment fund was created to implement the project, and $40 billion was allocated - an extremely small amount by Chinese standards. In the future, it is expected that this amount will be multiplied and Islamic and European countries will participate in financing the project. Earlier, in October 2014, the Chinese created the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), an international investment bank that the media calls a competitor to the IMF and the World Bank. By May 2015, the AIIB already included almost 60 countries - most Asian countries and all key European countries.

Combining projects from different countries

On April 2, 2015, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi proposed combining the concepts of transport megaprojects existing in the three countries into a joint Chinese-Mongolian-Russian economic corridor. According to Wang Yi, “building an economic corridor means combining the Chinese idea of ​​​​building the Silk Road economic belt “one belt - one road”, the Mongolian idea of ​​the “steppe road” and the idea of ​​​​creating a trans-Eurasian corridor promoted by Russia.”

In the land part of the New Silk Road, it is planned to build three railway corridors. The northern corridor will pass through the territory of Russia, and the central and southern ones will pass through the territory of Central and Central Asia, including through Kazakhstan, which is included together with Russia in the Eurasian economic union. Subsequently, the railway corridors will be supplemented by road corridors.

The main direction of the “New Silk Road” through Central Asia is expected to be about 6,500 kilometers long, of which 4,000 will pass through Chinese territory from the Pacific coast to the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Further, the path goes through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey, and from there to Europe - through Bulgaria, Romania and the Czech Republic to Germany. Branches from the main route are also planned towards many other surrounding countries.

The sea route, like the land route, will follow an ancient trade route: from Guangzhou in China along the coasts of Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, past India to the Red Sea with branches in Persian Gulf and to Africa, and through the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean. As a separate entry point into Europe, before the Ukrainian crisis began, the Chinese were planning to build a deep-sea port in the western part of Crimea.

In addition, Russia and China are also discussing the Arctic route: the possible inclusion of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) development project in the New Silk Road strategy.

China's interests

China’s interests in the large-scale “New Silk Road” strategy it is promoting are extremely diverse:

• New transport corridors should reduce the time it takes to transport goods from China to Europe from the current 45-60 days by sea to 10-13 days by land. This will significantly optimize supplies and reduce the cost of many Chinese goods, strengthen China’s position in European and Asian markets, and also occupy new markets in Africa and the Middle East.

• Conquering new markets is extremely important for the growth of the Chinese economy, which has been slowing in recent years.. Although there are still hundreds of millions of peasants in China who are not involved in the modern economic and technological way of life, China’s human resources are not endless. Continued growth and development requires more and more widespread use of Chinese goods, technologies and investments abroad.

• China is very interested in Chinese railway and construction companies expanding far beyond their borders to keep these industries busy for decades to come. By 2014, about 16 thousand km of high-speed railway lines were built in China (60% of the entire global high-speed railway network), and by the end of the decade, the total length of the high-speed railway network in China should reach 30 thousand km. Enormous resources have been poured into the industry at an astonishing rate of high-speed highway construction, and Chinese leaders understand that China's high-speed network will soon reach saturation and economic profitability, even with its enormous population and territory. Therefore, the Chinese are making significant diplomatic and organizational efforts. Thus, in October 2014, the largest Chinese manufacturers of railway equipment CNR and CSR merged, uniting to jointly enter the world market and compete with foreign companies such as Siemens and Bombardier. The Chinese are willing to build infrastructure even in underdeveloped and unstable African countries - for example, they are planning to build a railway in East Africa through the territory of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and South Sudan, and at the end of 2014, a $12 billion contract was signed for the construction of a railway along the coast of Nigeria.

• Moreover, China is interested in building railways in its neighboring countries, in building, as far as possible, integrated with the intra-Chinese railway network. As it became known in May 2015, China is ready to invest up to 300 billion rubles in the construction of the Moscow-Kazan high-speed railway. Russia's first full-fledged dedicated high-speed railway with a length of 770 km should reduce travel time between Moscow and Kazan from 11.5 to 3.5 hours. The highway is supposed to be built using Chinese technology and with loans from Chinese banks, and materials and rolling stock will mainly be supplied by Russian companies.

Interests of Russia

Russia has the following interests in relation to the New Silk Road project:

• It is extremely important for Russia to integrate into the trans-Eurasian transport corridors of the New Silk Road, thereby strengthening its position as a major transit country. Russia must become a full-fledged “Eurasian bridge” between the countries of the East and West.
• Russia’s participation in the project and the growth of transit through its territory will dramatically increase the return on investment in transport infrastructure and, as a result, more actively develop many regions of the Asian part of Russia, making them more attractive for locating production and living.
• Against the backdrop of currently difficult relations with the West, Russia is interested in strengthening and expanding cooperation with China. Joint large projects are the most reliable way to build long-term partnerships.
• Russia needs to expand cross-border ties with China - without this, full-fledged economic development of the regions of Siberia and the Far East is hardly possible. Border regions need close markets to sell their products and flows of tourists from China.
• Russia, like China, is very interested in establishing political stability in the countries of Central Asia and the Middle East, as well as in the active economic development of these countries. We are talking about Afghanistan, Pakistan and other problem states. Both Russia and China are threatened by such phenomena as drug production in Afghanistan and related drug trafficking. No less dangerous are Islamic fundamentalist militants and uncontrolled flows of migrants that arise during military conflicts. Ultimately, these threats can be completely eliminated only through accelerated economic development of all countries in the region - only an increase in living standards can become the basis for strengthening political stability. The New Silk Road project can play an extremely important role in this regard, becoming an incentive and tool for establishing peace and economic prosperity in Eurasia.
12

However, the Trans-Caspian route - from China through Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey to Europe is economically unprofitable - after all, between China and the EU with such a route you have to cross as many as 5 customs borders and as many as 4 times carry out ferry crossings or transshipment in ports (you have to cross not only the Caspian , but the Black Sea, since the railway between Georgia and Turkey is not completed). Meanwhile, the Russian route involves crossing only 3 borders without any sea sections.

The Russian Trans-Siberian Railway is being used to its fullest and is overloaded, but is being successfully reconstructed, which creates a strong prospect for increasing cargo flow through Russian territory.

The Silk Road through Georgia and Ukraine

On January 15, 2016, Ukraine announced the launch of the first experimental flight from the Ilyichevsk seaport through Georgia, Azerbaijan, through the Caspian Sea and Kazakhstan to China. This PR project is associated with the initiatives of Odessa Governor Mikheil Saakashvili, the ex-President of Georgia. According to Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, this route “will become a new direction of the Silk Road and an alternative to delivering goods from Ukraine to these markets, bypassing Russian territory.” Ukraine says the journey from China to Europe via the Ukrainian port of Ilyichevsk could take “a maximum of 9 days” instead of “30 days via Russia.”

In reality, however, the route through Russia is designed to take only 14-15 days, while the alternative “Ukrainian” route is unlikely to be as fast as stated. The profitability of this project is very doubtful, because, as in the route through Turkey, here again it is necessary to cross as many as 5 customs offices and 2 seas. However, in connection with the restrictions introduced at the beginning of 2016 on the transit of Ukrainian goods through the FTA Eurasian Union it is possible that Ukraine will be forced to use alternative routes, even at a loss.

As in the case of the route through Turkey, we are actually talking about an attempt to revive the old failed project of the TRACECA transport corridor, giving it the name “Silk Road”, popular in connection with China’s new transport and economic strategy.