According to the demographic forecast of Rosstat, natural population decline will increase and from 2025 will exceed 400 thousand people annually; a slowdown in population decline is predicted only closer to the 2030s. International migration (according to the forecast, the influx of migrants will be less than 300 thousand people per year) in the future will not be able to compensate for the population decline.
In December 2017, the head of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, Maxim Topilin, said that the birth rate in Russia is insufficient to ensure population growth, and in the coming years the situation will only worsen, as the number of women of childbearing age in the country will decrease by a quarter or even more.
“The number of women of reproductive age will decrease by 28% by 2032 or 2035.” Unfortunately, it is not possible to assume that in this situation the absolute number of births will remain at the level of 1.8-1.9 million,” said Topilin.
The birth rate in the Russian Federation in 2017 was the lowest in the last 10 years
(Video: RBC TV channel)
Ramilya Khasanova, a researcher at the Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting at RANEPA, explained to RBC that the birth rate will decline in the next 15 years due to the fact that most current mothers were born in the 1990s, when the birth rate was low.
“The number of women - potential mothers is small, and therefore the number of births is also falling,” the expert explained.
Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Maxim Oreshkin, classified the demographic situation in Russia as one. The minister noted that a sharp reduction in the size of the working-age population will be led by the fact that Russians born at the very end of the 1990s, when the maximum decline in the birth rate was recorded in its composition, are beginning to be taken into account.
“The generation is very small, so the negative dynamics in terms of the working-age population will continue. The situation from a demographic point of view is one of the most difficult in the world: we will lose approximately 800 thousand people of working age every year due to the demographic structure,” Oreshkin said.
In response to the challenge of low birth rates, the president talks about “rebooting” the country’s demographic policy. From January 1, two new monthly benefits appeared in Russia. At the birth of the first child and until he reaches one and a half years of age, families are provided with a monthly payment equal to the regional subsistence minimum per child (on average in 2018 it is 10.5 thousand rubles). From maternity capital funds (the program has been extended until the end of 2021), families can receive monthly payments upon the birth of a second child. Both payments are provided to families whose average per capita income does not exceed 1.5 times the regional subsistence level. In addition, for families with a second and third child, a special program for subsidizing mortgage rates (the state will cover the cost of servicing a mortgage in excess of 6% per annum).
Khasanova assessed the measures taken by the state as positive. “Maternity capital influenced a slight increase in the number of third and second births. It will increase the opportunity for young families to rise out of poverty. The benefit adopted for the first child will most likely not be such an effective way to increase the number of births, but it will affect the birth calendar: those who were planning to give birth in the next few years will hurry up,” she said.
The Russian labor market is losing its attractiveness for migrants; without them, it will not be possible to make up for the decline in the country’s working-age population, experts from the Center for Strategic Research (CSR) warn in the report “Migration Policy: Diagnosis, Challenges, Proposals,” published on January 26. The total decline in the working-age population by 2030 will range from 11 million to 13 million people, experts say. There are no reserves for the growth of internal migration and to attract foreign labor, according to experts, new migration policy measures are needed - work visas, lottery systems similar to the American Green Card, as well as contracts for the integration of migrants.
In 2015, population growth in Russia amounted to 33 thousand 700 people
In our country in January-December 2015, 1 million 944 thousand 100 babies were born. 1 million 911 400 people died. The population growth amounted to 32 thousand 700 people.
Compared to 2014, the birth rate in 2015 decreased by 3,200 people, and the death rate by 2,200. Thus, in 2014, 1 million 947 thousand 300 babies were born, 1 million 913 thousand 600 people died.
The number of registered marriages (1 million 161 thousand) in 2015 was almost 2 times higher than the number of divorces (611 thousand 600). In 2014, people got married and divorced more often than in 2015 - the number of marriages amounted to 1 million 226 thousand, the number of divorces - 693 thousand 700.
General results of the vital statistics of the Russian Federation in 2015
For the fourth year now, Russians have been overturning demographers' forecasts.
After all, after 2011, our country was predicted to have a new failure, another crossbar of the “Russian cross”.
Since 2011, there are fewer and fewer potential mothers in Russia, because girls born during the demographic hole of the nineties are reaching adulthood, and the much more populous generations of the early seventies are dropping out of the process.
However, neither the economic crisis nor the reduction in the number of young women led to a decrease in the Russian birth rate. The statistical results of 2015 indicate that natural population growth continues in the Russian Federation.
In the table it looks like this:
Natural population growth of the Russian Federation (thousands of people)
If we compare with forecasts, everything is happening exactly the opposite.
Calculations based on the number of maternal generations suggested that from 2010 to 2015, the number of little Russians born should have decreased by 150-200 thousand, and the natural decline should have reached 400 thousand people per year.
But in fact, the birth rate is increasing and for the third year in a row it has steadily, although not by much, exceeded the death rate.
An increase in the birth rate against the background of a decrease in the number of mothers means only one thing: family size is growing in Russia. There are more and more parents with two and three children, and fewer with one child.
Indeed, the total fertility rate (TFR), which shows the average number of descendants a woman will leave if the frequency of births in the country remains at the current level, changed in the 21st century as follows:
The level achieved today is still lower than that which ensures simple replacement of generations, but higher than the level of any country in continental Europe, except France.
True, in France, the increase in the birth rate in recent years has been achieved mainly by migrants. In Russia, on the contrary, the positive trend of the last decade is entirely due to Russians.
The birth rate of the peoples of the North Caucasus and southern Siberia, previously characterized by large families, is now declining, gradually approaching the Russian average level. Using the figures obtained in 2015 as an example, it looks like this:
In a group of ten national regions with traditionally high birth rates (Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Ossetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, Kalmykia, Bashkiria, Yakutia, Tuva), 8,499 fewer people were born last year than in 2014.
In the group of sixty subjects of the Federation without national status, where the absolute majority of the population is Russian, 7,525 more people were born.
The trend seems even more contrasting if we consider that the number of potential mothers in Russian regions is decreasing due to the failure of the nineties, and in most national republics, where such a deep failure was not observed in the nineties, the maternal cohort continues to grow. That is, in the Caucasus there are more women of parental age and fewer babies, but in central Russia the opposite is true.
This suggests that the difference in family size between Russians and some national minorities, which developed in the second half of the twentieth century, is now shrinking even faster than can be judged by the absolute figures given above.
Finally, here are the ten regions where the birth rate grew at the highest rates in 2015:
- Sevastopol + 12.1%
- Kaluga region + 7.8%
- Nenets Autonomous Okrug + 6.3%
- St. Petersburg + 5.2%
- Moscow region + 5.2%
- Tula region + 4.0%
- Moscow + 3.5%
- Bryansk region + 3.0%
- Vladimir region + 3.0%
- Nizhny Novgorod region + 2.5%
It is symbolic that this rating is crowned by the hero city of Sevastopol, which has returned to its homeland. No less significant is that the leaders of the demographic revival are dominated by the regions of central and northwestern Russia, which recently experienced the most severe crisis.
According to various sources, the birth rate is less than 1.5 children
per Russian woman, which is a direct symptom of depopulation or
extinction of the country's population. The minimum birth rate occurred in 2002, when Russian women reproduced 1.31 children each. Today, the influx of population is created by traditionally large Muslim families from Central Asia and the Caucasus.
In Russia, since 2002 at the time of the 2010 census, the situation has worsened by 2.5 million people. Russia is the only country that has experienced population decline in the last decade. If we consider the results of 2010 to be reliable (real facts indicate that the population size is much smaller than the official results), then if existing conditions continue, by 2030 the number of Russians will decrease to 100 million people.
The current demographic situation in Russia, subject to trends
its conservation will lead to the fact that by 2050 there will be no
no more than 90 million Russians live. The simultaneous decline in fertility and
an increase in population mortality (the so-called “Russian cross”) occurs only in
the most backward and This is the situation in Russia
against the backdrop of depopulation of the country's indigenous peoples.
The catastrophic demographic situation in modern Russia is a consequence of the decline in the birth rate below the simple replacement level of the population. The current birth rate is still far from the conditions necessary for Russia's survival. In order to ensure stable population growth, each woman must have at least 2.3-2.6 children. In modern conditions, when no citizen can be confident in his future, such indicators are impossible. The rapid depletion of human resources from the Russian Federation indicates that the country is becoming unsuitable for civilized living. According to some data, at least 15 million Russians live outside the Russian Federation. This is the most active and energetic part of society, which does not agree to put up with the existing regime in the country. The demographic situation in the Russian Federation is fundamentally different from what has happened in the country for many millennia. Just recently, Russian families with many children were not a novelty. Moreover, such families were not synonymous with poor education of children and poverty. Between 1800 and 1900 (despite high infant mortality), Russia's population more than doubled.
Depopulation in Russia began after the collapse of the USSR and is now about 0.65%. The demographic situation in Russia has no analogues in
world. Despite the fact that birth rates are falling everywhere, including countries such as
China and India, such excess mortality as in our country is not observed anywhere. Experts believe that the demographic situation in Russia is due to the low profitability of childbearing, when children are not able to provide for their parents in old age. Giving birth and raising a child is associated with poverty and deprivation. The state not only does not help in the upbringing and development of children, but also prevents this in every possible way, destroying kindergartens, sports grounds and educational institutions. Young people raised on dubious television programs do not strive to get an education or find a job. They become an unbearable burden for their elderly parents, who are forced to feed them on their meager pension.
Unlike Russia, in developed countries children are a source of wealth, so women willingly give birth, feeling the support of the state. For normal civilized countries, a family with 3-4 children is not a sign of heroism. There are no signs of a change in the situation in Russia, so parents must take care of their old age on their own. The level still exceeds the birth rate, so every future pensioner must create a “safety cushion” for themselves on their own.
“Men are becoming feminine”: why the birth rate has fallen in Russia
Demographics: Russia is being let down by the “women’s issue”»
The Federal State Statistics Service of Russia has published a Demographic Forecast until 2035. According to the forecast of Rosstat, it is expected that the population of Russia by 2036 will remain at the 2017 level - 147 million people, plus or minus a few percent. At the same time, the share of the working-age population will remain almost constant - 55−56%. Such data is not enough to ensure that the number of working age see internal changes. After all, if within these 55−56% there is an increase in the number of the young part up to the age of 40, and a decrease in the number of the older part of working age, then a favorable demographic future for Russia lies ahead. And something completely different awaits us , if, on the contrary, the young part decreases.
By developing the Rosstat forecast (by what method - more on this below), it is possible to determine the dynamics of the number of young people until 2040.
There is no particular point in separating men and women on the graphs, since the declines and rises in the dynamics of the future number of 20-year-olds, 30-year-olds and 40-year-olds are almost double. And the number of men and women aged 20 to 40 differs only by a few percent.
What does this diagram help you realize?
First. The number of 20-year-olds will increase until 2035, but only slightly.
Second. The number of 30-year-olds will begin to decline in the coming years. Moreover, in the first half of the 2020s the reduction will be very strong - about 10% annually.
Third. The number of 40-year-olds will increase until the second half of the 2020s. But this increase will be insignificant. And in the 2030s the reduction will begin, at approximately the same rate as the reduction of 30-year-olds in 2020.
So the total number of young people of working age will decrease in the period 2018–2040.
Finally
In recent years, official publications have been full of cheerful statements about the emerging long-term favorable trend in the demography of the Russian people.
In Russia, the Russian people make up about 80% of the total population. So the results of the spectral analysis of the Rosstat forecast can be extended to the Russian people.
Whether you like it or not, there is no basis for cheerful statements about the emerging long-term favorable trend in the demography of the Russian people.
Demography. The future of the country [Our country]
Why is Russia dying out? (Romanov Roman)
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Our country is one of the few countries in the world where there is a low birth rate. Combined with high mortality, it has a negative impact on demographic indicators. In recent years, the birth rate in Russia has fallen sharply. Forecasts so far are also disappointing.
General information about the population of Russia
According to Rosstat, the population of Russia in 2018 was 146 million 880 thousand 432 people. This figure puts our country in ninth place in terms of population in the world. The average population density in our country is 8.58 people. per 1 km 2.
Most of the inhabitants are concentrated in the European territory of Russia (about 68%), although its area is much smaller than the Asian one. This is clearly visible from the distribution of population density: in the west of the country it is 27 people. per 1 km 2, and in the center and east - only 3 people. per 1 km 2. The highest density value is recorded in Moscow - over 4626 people / 1 km 2, and the minimum - in the Chukotka District (below 0.07 people / 1 km 2).
The share of urban residents is 74.43 percent. There are 170 cities in Russia with a population of more than 100,000 people. In 15 of them the population exceeds 1 million.
The birth rate in Russia is quite low.
In total, over 200 different nationalities can be found in the country. They are also called ethnic groups. The share of Russians is about 81 percent. In second place are the Tatars (3.9%), and in third are the Ukrainians. Approximately a percentage of the total population consists of such nationalities as Chuvash, Bashkirs, Chechens, and Armenians.
In Russia, the predominance of the elderly population over people of working age is clearly expressed. The ratio of employed to pensioners in our country is 2.4/1, and, for example, in the USA it is 4.4/1, in China it is 3.5/1, and in Uganda it is 9/1. The figures are closest in Greece: 2.5/1.
Demographic characteristics of Russia
A gradual population decline is typical for Russia. In the 50s of the 20th century, natural increase was at the level of 15-20 people per 1000 inhabitants per year. There were many large families.
In the 60s it fell rapidly, and in the 70-80s it was only a little more than 5 people.
A new sharp drop occurred in the early 90s, as a result of which it became negative and was at a level of minus 5-6 people per thousand inhabitants per year. In the mid-2000s, the situation began to improve, and by 2013, growth entered the positive zone. However, in recent years it has worsened again.
However, the dynamics of the birth rate and mortality rate in Russia are not always interrelated. Thus, the fall in the birth rate in the 60s did not lead to a change in the dynamics of mortality. At the same time, in the first half of the 90s, mortality increased sharply, but somewhat later than the birth rate fell. In the 2000s, the birth rate began to rise, but the death rate continued to increase, but not at such a rapid pace. Since the mid-late 2000s, there has been an improvement in all indicators: the birth rate has increased and the death rate has fallen. In recent years, statistics on fertility and mortality in Russia have the following features: there has been a sharp decline in the birth rate, but mortality continues to decrease.
In general, over the past 65 years, the birth rate has fallen by about half, but the mortality rate has remained almost unchanged.
Birth rate in Russia in recent decades
If we do not take the last 2 years, the overall picture of the birth rate reflects a sharp decline in the 90s and a gradual rise since the mid-2000s. There is a clear positive relationship between the rural and urban populations, but the range of fluctuations is higher for rural areas. All this is shown by the graph of the birth rate in Russia by year.
The rapid decline in the indicator continued until 1993, after which the rate slowed sharply. The bottom was reached in 1999. Then a gradual increase in values began, which reached their maximum value in 2015. For the rural population, the maximum was passed a year earlier. Since there are more urban residents than rural ones, the average indicators more clearly reflect the dynamics of the urban population.
Population dynamics of Russia
The population size is influenced not only by natural growth, but also by migration flows. Migrants mainly come from Central Asian countries. In recent years, refugees arriving from Ukraine have also affected the growth of our country’s population.
The total population of Russia increased until 1996, after which it began a steady decline, which continued until 2010. Then growth resumed again.
General demographic situation
The demographic situation in Russia, according to UN estimates, meets the criteria of a demographic crisis. The average fertility rate is 1.539. Mortality rates are traditionally high in Russia. Characteristic of our country is the sharp predominance of deaths from cardiovascular diseases over other causes, which is directly related to the destructive lifestyle of the majority of Russians. Poor diet, physical inactivity and smoking are common causes of death. The extremely unsatisfactory state of medicine and, in some places, the depressing environmental situation also have an impact. Drunkenness is common in many regions.
In terms of life expectancy, Russia lags far behind all developed countries and even a number of developing countries.
Fertility rate in Russia by region
The distribution of this indicator on the map of our country is quite uneven. The highest values are recorded in the east of the North Caucasus and in certain areas in the south of Siberia. Here the birth rate reaches 25-26.5 people per thousand inhabitants per year.
The lowest rates are observed in the central regions of the European part of Russia. This is especially pronounced in the southeast of the Central Federal District and in some regions of the Volga region. In the very center the situation is somewhat better, which is obviously due to the influence of Moscow. In general, the worst birth rates are observed in approximately the same regions where the highest death rates are recorded.
Birth rate in Russia in recent years
Since 2016, the country has seen a sharp decline in the birth rate. The number of births this year was 10% less than in the same period last year, and in 2017 the birth rate in Russia showed the same magnitude of decline compared to 2016.
In the first 3 months of 2018, 391 thousand people were born in Russia, which is 21 thousand less than in January-March last year. However, in some regions the birth rate has increased slightly. These are the Altai Republic, Chechnya, Ingushetia, North Ossetia, Kalmykia and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug.
At the same time, mortality, on the contrary, decreased - by 2% over the year.
The reasons for the decline in the birth rate may be natural: the number of women of childbearing age is gradually decreasing, which is an echo of the recession of the 90s. Therefore, the decrease in absolute fertility is estimated at a smaller value - 7.5%, and it may reflect a change in the socio-economic situation in the country in recent years.
Due to the low birth rate, natural increase was also low. Although 63.6 thousand fewer people died in 2017 than a year earlier, the decrease in the number of births amounted to 203 thousand people. At the same time, the total population has increased slightly due to increased migration flows from Central Asia and, to a lesser extent, from Ukraine. Thus, the birth rate in Russia in 2017 and 2018 was significantly reduced.
Forecast
According to Rosstat's forecast, the demographic situation in the country will continue to deteriorate, and migration flows will no longer be able to cover the natural population decline. Prices for hydrocarbon raw materials will obviously, as before, play a major role in the future demographic fate of the country. Thus, the birth rate in Russia will be low.