In 2017, Gazprom increased exports to Europe to record levels - 193 billion cubic meters, writes Financial Times. As the publication notes, Russian fuel continues to be popular on the continent, despite attempts by some EU members to “reduce energy dependence” on Moscow.
Last year exports Russian gas to Europe grew by 8.1%, reaching record levels of 193 billion cubic meters. All this happened despite growing competition and concerns about the country's dominance in the European market, writes the Financial Times.
According to the publication, the largest gas producing company in the world, Gazprom, supplies almost 40% of blue fuel to Europe. But in last years it had to cut prices to maintain market share. This is especially relevant against the backdrop of the aspirations of some EU members " reduce dependence" from Moscow.
Thus, Poland, Lithuania and other countries are building terminals for storing liquefied gas. natural gas in order to increase its exports from the USA and Qatar. In addition, some eastern members of the European bloc are trying to block Gazprom’s energy projects, including Nord Stream 2. They claim that in this way they will be able to " weaken the Kremlin and punish it for the annexation of Crimea».
However, despite all these difficulties, Gazprom reports record exports to Europe for the second year in a row. The consumption of Russian gas compensates for the decrease in domestic production in the Netherlands and other countries of the continent, the publication explains.
« The trend of increasing record figures for the second year in a row, on the one hand, demonstrates the actively growing need European countries in Russian gas, on the other—its reliable supply in the required volumes“said Alexey Miller, Chairman of the Board of Gazprom.
In an attempt to maintain export sales, which make up most of its income, Gazprom has increased investment in the construction of new pipelines. In particular, the company spent $55 billion on the Power of Siberia pipeline, which should begin supplying gas to China next year, the publication notes.
The construction of Nord Stream 2 was delayed due to its protests in the EU. The project is also threatened by American sanctions, which could limit the financial participation of European companies. In addition, Gazprom faces internal competition from Novatek, which recently launched the Yamal LNG plant, the Financial Times emphasizes.
source Financial Times UK Europe tags- 07:15
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They increased by 8.1% compared to 2016 and amounted to 193.9 billion cubic meters. m. Export
- to Germany grew by 7.1%,
- to Austria – by 25.0%,
- to the Czech Republic - by 28.0%,
- to Slovakia – by 24.5%,
- to France - by 6.8%,
- to the Netherlands – by 4.6%,
- to Denmark – by 1.9%.
Also, the target markets of the Turkish Stream project continued to demonstrate a growing trend in demand for Russian gas. Export
- to Turkey increased by 17.3%,
- to Hungary – by 21.3%,
- to Bulgaria – by 4.7%,
- to Greece – by 9.3%,
- to Serbia - by 21.2%.
LNG exports to Asia-Pacific countries in 2017 increased in volume terms by 5.3% to 15.5 million cubic meters (10.9 million tons).
The price of Russian gas on the border with Germany in December 2017 increased by 6.1% compared to last year and amounted to 176.7 euros/thousand cubic meters (166.49 euros/thousand cubic meters in December 2016).
2016
34% share of the EU market
Forecast of zeroing out exports to Europe via Ukraine and Belarus
According to Gazprom, in the first seven months of 2016, Russian gas exports to non-CIS countries increased by 9.5 billion cubic meters, or 10.7% (compared to January-July 2015).
Basic scenario for gas exports from Russia to Europe (Forbes Russia, December, 2016)
In the maximum scenario of new Russian gas pipelines to Europe, both branches of Nord Stream 2, as well as both branches of the Turkish Stream, are built. In this scenario, the Ukrainian gas transportation system becomes unnecessary. Moreover, Russian gas supplies to Europe through Belarus and Poland also become nominally redundant after 2025, which undoubtedly explains Poland’s strong reaction to the prospects for increasing the use of Nord Stream 1 capacity and plans to build Nord Stream 2 " The point is not at all about gas security in Europe, but about the potential loss of transit volumes and the growing dependence of Poland on Germany as a new transit country for Russian gas for Eastern European countries.
2015: Russian exports 211.5 billion cubic meters - No. 1 in the world
Europe remains the largest consumer of Russian gas.
In addition, Gazprom supplies LNG to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India and China.
In 2015, European sales of Russian gas increased to 158.6 billion cubic meters.
2012: Plan for growth of exports to Europe to 154 billion cubic meters
Gas exports to Europe, according to Gazprom calculations, were expected to increase in 2012 to 154 billion cubic meters. m with 150 billion cubic meters. m in 2011
Significant volumes of supplies to foreign countries should be achieved in the longer term. In particular, in accordance with the gas industry development scheme until 2030, Russia will increase gas production by 1.5 times - up to 1 trillion cubic meters. m per year, and exports should increase to 455-520 billion cubic meters. m per year.
At this time, Russia is preparing to increase oil and gas production and exports. Hydrocarbon producing companies are actively taking up the development of undeveloped and little-studied offshore projects in the Arctic, completing the construction of gas and oil pipelines, and also planning new projects in this area. There are also plans to develop new sales regions, in particular the Asia-Pacific direction.
2011: Export of 203.9 billion cubic meters (+11%), with production of 670 billion
In 2011, Russian gas exports, as planned, increased significantly. This process was mainly influenced by some economic recovery in European countries and Cold winter. In January-December 2011, 203 billion 936.2 million cubic meters were exported from the Russian Federation. m, which is 11% more than a year earlier with production of 670 billion cubic meters. m.
2007: Gazprom officially receives a monopoly on gas exports
In 2007, the previously existing de facto unified gas export channel was formalized by law and the implementation of the state monopoly on gas exports was entrusted by the state to the owner of the Unified Gas Supply System (UGSS) represented by Gazprom.
1991: Russia inherits from the USSR the system of gas contracts with European companies
Russia inherited the system from the USSR gas contracts between the Soviet Ministry of Oil and Gas and European companies. Gas delivery points in contracts with Europeans approximately corresponded to the former western borders of the countries of Eastern Europe, part of the socialist bloc. Gazprom became the legal successor to these export contracts and supplemented them with new ones.
After the breakup Soviet Union Challenges arose in Russia's gas trade with Europe, the need to respond to which shaped Russia's gas export strategy over the next 25 years.
Transit risk
The first and most serious was the unprecedented dependence of Russian gas exports on transit through third countries, primarily through Ukraine. In the early 1990s, more than 90% of Russian gas exports to Europe were carried out through export gas pipelines created in Soviet time on the territory of Ukraine. By the end of 2016, as a result of the implementation of a program to build new gas pipelines, only 40% of Russian gas exports go to Europe through Ukraine.
Changing the rules of the game in Europe
The second challenge was the formation of a single European economic space and liberalization of the European gas market, which changed the traditional relationship between
EU members, Ukrainians and Russians have gathered to agree on future gas supplies through Ukraine in light of Europe's growing consumption of Russian gas, despite its desire to reduce dependence on Moscow.
Demand for natural gas in Europe declined between 2010 and 2014. Things have changed since then as Europe's gas production continues to decline, especially in the Netherlands.
Europe's growing gas needs are a concern of Russia and its company Gazprom, which controls 17% of the world's gas reserves and has a monopoly on pipelines. The state controls 50.2% of the company's shares, so it is often called a powerful geopolitical lever of the Kremlin.
The Gazprom company provides about 35% of gas consumption on the European continent. This figure has increased in recent years, despite the EU's determination to reduce European countries' dependence on energy supplies from Moscow.
Gas exports to Europe reached record levels in 2016 and 2017, especially during the harsh winter season. Gazprom also reported an increase in gas exports by 6.6% in the first quarter of this year.
Context
Is Germany a hostage to Russia?
The New York Times 07/12/2018Russia has a strong trump card in the trade war
Dunya 06.06.2018Russian gas lights up Europe
Il Foglio 05/30/2018Nord Stream 2 is a poison pill for Europe
iDNES.cz 05/30/2018 Currently, Russia exports gas to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which stretches to Germany. Two pipelines deliver gas to Poland through Belarus, four pipelines through Ukraine. In addition, there is a pipeline through Turkey and direct gas supplies to Finland and the Baltic states.However, Gazprom is seeking to develop other pipelines whose projects are sponsored by large European financial groups in order to maintain the market and minimize the transit of gas through Ukraine.
European finance groups hope to begin work on two new pipelines bypassing Ukraine by the end of 2018: Turkish Stream through Turkey and Nord Stream 2 across the Baltic Sea.
However, the European Commission remains wary of this project, although it cannot influence its implementation. She wants the laws of the European energy market to be respected, especially in terms of competition, while Poland and Eastern European countries oppose the implementation of Nord Stream 2.
Fighting competition
Despite Europe's announcements of its intention to diversify its energy supply sources, alternative sources continue to remain uncompetitive.
European efforts have fueled the growth of the liquefied natural gas market, which has heightened tensions between Brussels and Moscow since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in 2014. Europe fears that Moscow will use gas supplies for geopolitical purposes.
The United States is the world's largest natural gas producer and has finally begun to seek new gas markets under the leadership of President Donald Trump.
However, today transporting liquefied natural gas by sea is much more expensive than supplying Russian gas through pipelines.
In July, the British company British Petroleum began developing a large gas field in Azerbaijan known as the South gas corridor", which will allow Europe to receive gas through Turkey, Greece, Germany and the Adriatic Sea.
The project is expected to be completed in 2020, but experts say the project, which began at the turn of the new millennium, will cover only 2% of European gas demand.
InoSMI materials contain assessments exclusively of foreign media and do not reflect the position of the InoSMI editorial staff.
The main objectives of PJSC Gazprom in the European market are to maintain its leading position, ensure reliable gas supply, and increase the efficiency of sales activities.
European countries have been the most important consumers of Russian gas for more than 40 years.
Gazprom is the largest gas exporter to the European market.
In 2017, the Gazprom Group sold 242.0 billion cubic meters to non-CIS countries. m of gas (includes both gas exports from Russian Federation, as well as the sale of gas volumes purchased by the Group outside the Russian Federation). At the same time, net sales proceeds (less excise tax and customs duties) amounted to RUB 2,221.2 billion.
Gas exports from the Russian Federation to non-CIS countries reached a record volume in 2017 - 194.4 billion cubic meters. m of gas (under contracts with Gazprom Export LLC and Gazprom Schweiz AG). This is by 8.4% or 15.1 billion cubic meters. m more than in 2016.
Gazprom uses long-term contracts with oil products and a “take-or-pay” condition as the basis for its activities in the European gas market. New forms of trading are also used based on short- and medium-term sales, as well as exchange transactions and one-time transactions.
Single export channel
A fundamental element of Gazprom’s export strategy is the system of a single export channel. According to Russian law on gas exports, Gazprom was granted the exclusive right to export gas through gas pipelines. The law allows for coordinated production and marketing policies and is an additional legal guarantee of the reliability of Russian gas exports.
Long-term contract system
Gazprom exports gas to the countries of Central and Western Europe mainly within the framework of long-term contracts for a period of up to 25 years, concluded, as a rule, on the basis of intergovernmental agreements.
Long-term contracts with oil products and a take-or-pay clause are the basis for the stability and reliability of gas supplies. Only such contracts can provide the manufacturer and exporter with a guarantee of recoupment of the multibillion-dollar capital investments required for the implementation of large gas export projects, and the importer with a guarantee of reliable and uninterrupted gas supply over a long period of time.
To date, Gazprom's portfolio of signed long-term contracts ensures the sale of 4 trillion cubic meters at the level of minimum obligations. m of gas to non-CIS countries for the period until the expiration of contracts.
Among the main features of long-term contracts are the following:
- a price formula that takes into account changes in prices for petroleum products over the previous 6-9 months;
- conditions preventing unilateral termination of contracts, except in cases of prolonged force majeure;
- Take-or-pay terms covering significant contracted volume, which provide that the buyer pays for the unselected volumes for the year and can subsequently withdraw them with an appropriate additional payment after delivery of the minimum annual volumes stipulated by the contracts in the relevant year.
Long-term contracts are essentially service contracts that provide the buyer with daily flexibility, uneven supply throughout the year and an obligation on the part of the seller to subsequently replenish the buyer for amounts previously paid under take-or-pay terms. In addition, long-term contracts provide buyers with a guarantee of gas supplies for a significant period. Spot gas is, in fact, a completely different product, and direct comparison of contract and spot prices is unlawful.
At the same time, contracts with oil product indexation remain relevant. Oil indexation is an indispensable long-term business planning tool that serves the interests of the buyer and seller of gas. It ensures the continuity and sustainability of the investment cycle in the industry along the entire vertical - from the well to the end consumer. The use of petroleum product indexation has been tested over more than 40 years of development of the global gas market and is also used by other major exporters. IN modern conditions petroleum products in the gas formula play the role of a universal deflator. Their presence does not allow the price of gas to break away from the prices of other raw materials.
Average price of gas sales to non-CIS countries (less VAT, including excise tax and customs duties)
* Data are not part of the financial statements and are calculated using exchange rates at the end of the relevant period.
European gas market
The dynamics of Russian gas supplies to the European market depends on a number of factors, including the rate of economic growth, the dynamics of domestic gas production, the price environment for other energy resources - especially in the electricity sector - and the cost of gas in other world markets.
Sales of natural gas by the Gazprom Group in 2017 to non-CIS countries (billion cubic meters)| A country | Volumes |
|---|---|
| Under contracts of Gazprom Export LLC and GAZPROM Schweiz AG | |
| Austria | 9,1 |
| Bulgaria | 3,3 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0,2 |
| Great Britain | 16,3 |
| Hungary | 7,0 |
| Germany | 53,4 |
| Greece | 2,9 |
| Denmark | 1,8 |
| Italy | 23,8 |
| Macedonia | 0,3 |
| Netherlands | 4,7 |
| Poland | 10,5 |
| Romania | 1,2 |
| Serbia | 2,1 |
| Slovakia | 4,6 |
| Slovenia | 0,6 |
| Türkiye | 29,0 |
| Finland | 2,4 |
| France | 12,3 |
| Croatia | 2,8 |
| Czech | 5,8 |
| Switzerland | 0,3 |
| Total | 194,4 |
| Other sales of the Gazprom Group | 47,6 * |
| Total | 242,0 ** |
* Trading operations and sales of gas to end consumers, including LNG.
** According to the consolidated financial statements of PJSC Gazprom prepared in accordance with IFRS.
Increasing the reliability of gas supplies to Europe
Gazprom is implementing a set of measures to improve the reliability of gas supplies to European consumers, which includes systematic work on contracting gas transmission capacities, optimizing and redistributing ordered capacities, carrying out exchange operations, minimizing the consequences of gas pipeline shutdowns and other emergency situations.
In order to increase the reliability of supplies, Gazprom initiated the implementation of new gas transportation projects Nord Stream, Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream.
Nord Stream, the first gas pipeline in history to directly connect the gas transportation systems of Russia and Europe, reached its design capacity in 2012. Nord Stream 2 will be put into operation by the end of 2019.
Turkish Stream is a new gas export pipeline from Russia to Turkey across the Black Sea. The first line of the gas pipeline is intended to supply gas to Turkish consumers, the second - to supply gas to the countries of Southern and South-Eastern Europe. Construction " Turkish Stream"started in 2017.
The use of underground gas storage facilities (UGS) in European countries can also significantly increase the reliability of export supplies and ensure an increase in sales of Russian gas.
On March 25, data on Russian gas exports for the past year, 2015, traditionally appeared on the website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (publishes data from Rosstat and the Federal Customs Service). Its volume (to non-CIS countries) amounted to 144.7 billion cubic meters. Let us remind you that a little earlier Gazprom Export published its figures - according to them, the volume of the same export amounted to 158.6 billion cubic meters.
This contradiction, when Gazprom Export’s data turns out to be 15-30 billion cubic meters more than the volumes according to the Federal Customs Service (FCS), has been discussed among observers for several years.
What's the matter?
According to one version, Gazprom Export data reflects not only gas supplies from the Russian Federation, but also marketing operations (i.e. purchase and sale) with “European” gas. In our opinion, this version is not true. Gazprom is indeed engaged in trading operations with gas, but total sales (supplies from the Russian Federation + other gas) are given in separate statistics. For example, in 2013, such sales amounted to 172,6 billion cubic meters. For comparison, gas supplies from Russia this year turned out to be equal 161,5 billion according to Gazprom Export and 138 billion according to the Federal Customs Service. Those. Gas trading operations account for another 10 billion cubic meters of gas. But, by and large, these “trading” volumes really shouldn’t worry us. So why are the data from Gazprom Export and the Federal Customs Service different?
The fact is that Gazprom is still engaged in re-exporting certain volumes of Central Asian and Azerbaijani gas to Europe. They are taken into account by Gazprom Export, because These volumes are part of securing Russian contracts for gas supplies to the EU, but are not taken into account in the Federal Customs Service, because Export duties are not calculated on these volumes.
Russia's volumes of Central Asian gas purchases amounted to about 30 billion cubic meters in the early 2010s, and as we know, in recent years, against the backdrop of an excess of gas, Russian production began to decline (and a few months ago, Gazprom completely terminated the contract with Turkmenistan). In line with this trend, the difference between the data of Gazprom Export and the Federal Customs Service is decreasing: from 31.2 billion cubic meters in 2010 to 13.9 billion in the past year, 2015. We can expect that by the end of this year this difference will be even smaller.
The reader may have a question: why then really not focus only on the data of the Federal Customs Service, why do we need the data from Gazprom Export, since the main income comes only from directly Russian gas. There can be two answers here.
Firstly, gas re-export volumes are declining and will continue to decline, being replaced by Russian supplies. At the same time, it is the volumes provided by Gazprom Export that demonstrate to us the real market niche for gas supplies from Russia.
Secondly, and this is most important, the volumes published by Gazprom Export reflect the physical transportation of gas through transit gas pipelines from Russia to the EU. Accordingly, it is they who need to be guided when assessing the required capacity of transit gas pipelines.
To be fair, we note that some questions remain within the framework of such an interpretation of the features of statistics. In particular, the volume of Central Asian and Azerbaijani gas, for example, in 2014 amounted to 26.6 billion cubic meters (Gazprom reporting for 2014), while the difference in the data of the Federal Customs Service and Gazprom Export this year is 20. 4 billion cubic meters. As a possible explanation, it can be assumed that part of the Central Asian volumes is not processed on re-export terms, so these volumes fall into the base subject to export duties.