The initiative survey was conducted on July 22–25, 2016 on a representative all-Russian sample of the urban and rural population among 1,600 people aged 18 years and older in 137 settlements in 48 regions of the country.The study is conducted at the respondent's home using personal interviews.The distribution of answers is given as a percentage of total number respondents along with data from previous surveys.
Statistical sampling error 1600 people(with probability 0.95) does not exceed:
3.4% for rates close to 50%
2.9% for rates close to 25%
2.0% for rates close to 10%
1.5% for indicators close to 5%
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS MOST ACCURATELY REFLECT YOUR INTENTION TO VOTE IN THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS TO THE STATE DUMA OF RUSSIA? (one answer)
|
Sep. |
Sep. |
Sep. |
Sep. |
Sep. |
Jan. |
Feb. |
Mar. |
Apr. |
May. |
Jun. |
Jul. 16 |
|
| I am sure that I will not vote in the State Duma elections | 25 | 19 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 |
| I doubt I'll vote | 13 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| I don't know whether I'll vote or not | 17 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 24 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 26 | 20 | 25 |
| Most likely, I will vote in the State Duma elections | 18 | 16 | 22 | 28 | 32 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 26 | 25 | 27 | 26 |
| Absolutely, I will vote in these elections (of course, unless nothing happens to me before that moment) | 24 | 37 | 33 | 20 | 24 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 21 | 19 | 21 | 20 |
| Difficult to answer | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
(one answer; closed question; in % of ALL SURVEY PARTICIPANTS)
| Jan.16 | Feb.16 | Mar.16 | Apr.16 | May.16 | Jun. 16 | Jul.16 | |
| United Russia (D. Medvedev) | 39 | 40 | 40 | 42 | 35 | 35 | 39 |
| 10 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 10 | |
| 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| PARNAS (M. Kasyanov) | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1 |
| Apple (E. Slabunova) | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1 |
| – | – | <1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Youth Party (V. Popov)* | – | – | – | – | – | – | <1 |
| Civil force (K. Bykanin) | – | – | – | – | 1 | 1 | <1 |
| Party of Growth (B. Titov) | – | – | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| – | – | – | – | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| 1 | <1 | 1 | 1 | <1 | 1 | <1 | |
| Homeland (A. Zhuravlev) | <1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| – | – | – | – | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| Patriots of Russia (G. Semigin) | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
| – | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| No, I don’t know which party I would vote for | – | 10 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| I wouldn't vote | 19 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| No, I don’t know if I would vote or not | – | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Difficult to answer | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
IF THE STATE DUMA ELECTIONS WERE HELD THIS SUNDAY, WOULD YOU TAKE PART IN THESE ELECTIONS, AND IF SO, WHICH PARTY WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? (one answer; closed question; in %% of those respondents WHO ARE READY TO VOTE IN THIS ELECTION AND HAVE DECIDED ON THE PARTY)
| Jan.16 | Feb.16 | Mar.16 | Apr.16 | May.16 | Jun.16 | Jul.16 | |
| United Russia (D. Medvedev) | 65 | 64 | 59 | 60 | 53 | 55 | 57 |
| Communist Party (CPRF) (G. Zyuganov) | 16 | 17 | 19 | 15 | 21 | 18 | 15 |
| Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) (V. Zhirinovsky) | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| A Just Russia (S. Mironov) | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| PARNAS (M. Kasyanov) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Apple (E. Slabunova) | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1 | 1 |
| Communists of Russia (M. Suraikin) | – | – | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Youth Party (V. Popov)* | – | – | – | – | – | – | <1 |
| Civil force (K. Bykanin) | – | – | – | – | 1 | 1 | <1 |
| Party of Growth (B. Titov) | – | – | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Russian environmental party “Greens” (A. Panfilov) | – | – | – | – | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Civil platform (R. Shaikhutdinov) | 1 | <1 | 1 | 1 | <1 | 1 | <1 |
| Homeland (A. Zhuravlev) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | <1 | 1 | <1 |
| Russian Party of Pensioners for Justice (E. Artyukh) | – | – | – | – | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Patriots of Russia (G. Semigin) | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
| She would have ruined/taken away the ballot | – | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
* For the purpose of the experiment, the respondent was offered a fictitious party on the card among the list of real parties, which received 0.3% of the votes from all respondents.
IN YOUR VIEW, THE FOLLOWING PARTIES EXPRESS THE INTERESTS OF WHICH CLASSES OF THE POPULATION?
| Communist Party of the Russian Federation | UNITED RUSSIA | LDPR | A JUST RUSSIA | APPLE | PARNASSUS | |
| 6 | 30 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 12 | |
| 6 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 7 | |
| 8 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 5 | |
| 3 | 28 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cultural and scientific elite | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 2 |
| 15 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 3 | |
| 17 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 3 | |
| 31 | 8 | 17 | 15 | 3 | 2 | |
| 23 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 1 | |
| Everyone without exception | 15 | 25 | 19 | 14 | 8 | 5 |
| Difficult to answer | 24 | 15 | 27 | 37 | 55 | 71 |
Dynamic data
IN YOUR VIEW, UNITED RUSSIA EXPRESSES THE INTERESTS OF WHICH CLASSES OF THE POPULATION? (multiple answers possible)
| Jun.03 | Jan.04 | Oct.07 | Jul.11 | Jul.16 | |
| “Oligarchs”, bankers, large entrepreneurs | 18 | 18 | 21 | 40 | 30 |
| “Siloviki”: employees of special services, army, Ministry of Internal Affairs | 12 | 22 | 16 | 32 | 28 |
| Federal and regional officials, bureaucracy | 16 | 19 | 20 | 34 | 26 |
| Everyone without exception | 5 | 14 | 16 | 20 | 25 |
| “Directorial corps”: managers of large enterprises | 15 | 19 | 19 | 32 | 23 |
| “Middle class”: people with above-average incomes | 17 | 22 | 15 | 16 | 13 |
| Intellectuals: teachers, doctors, engineers, ordinary specialists | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 8 |
| “Ordinary people”: employees, workers, rural workers | 16 | 19 | 15 | 11 | 8 |
| Cultural and scientific elite | 4 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Difficult to answer | 23 | 13 | 20 | 10 | 15 |
IN YOUR VIEW, THE INTERESTS OF WHAT STRATS OF THE POPULATION IS EXPRESSED BY THE CPRF? (multiple answers possible)
| Jun.03 | Jan.04 | Oct.07 | Jul.11 | Jul.16 | |
| “Ordinary people”: employees, workers, rural workers | 37 | 39 | 26 | 40 | 31 |
| The poorest segments of the population, the unemployed, the disadvantaged people | 29 | 27 | 20 | 30 | 23 |
| Intellectuals: teachers, doctors, engineers, ordinary specialists | 15 | 16 | 11 | 20 | 17 |
| “Middle class”: people with above-average incomes | 10 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 15 |
| Everyone without exception | 4 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 15 |
| Federal and regional officials, bureaucracy | 6 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 8 |
| Cultural and scientific elite | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| “Directorial corps”: managers of large enterprises | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| “Oligarchs”, bankers, large entrepreneurs | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| “Siloviki”: employees of special services, army, Ministry of Internal Affairs | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Difficult to answer | 22 | 21 | 38 | 23 | 24 |
IN YOUR VIEW, DO THE LDPR EXPRESS THE INTERESTS OF WHICH CLASSES OF THE POPULATION? (multiple answers possible)
| Jun.03 | Jan.04 | Oct.07 | Jul.11 | Jul.16 | |
| Everyone without exception | 4 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 19 |
| “Ordinary people”: employees, workers, rural workers | 9 | 22 | 9 | 17 | 17 |
| “Middle class”: people with above-average incomes | 9 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 16 |
| Federal and regional officials, bureaucracy | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| Intellectuals: teachers, doctors, engineers, ordinary specialists | 4 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 11 |
| “Oligarchs”, bankers, large entrepreneurs | 13 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 9 |
| “Directorial corps”: managers of large enterprises | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| The poorest segments of the population, the unemployed, the disadvantaged people | 5 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 9 |
| “Siloviki”: employees of special services, army, Ministry of Internal Affairs | 10 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| Cultural and scientific elite | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Difficult to answer | 39 | 29 | 44 | 26 | 27 |
IN YOUR VIEW, THE INTERESTS OF WHICH CLASSES OF THE POPULATION IS EXPRESSED BY A FAIR RUSSIA? (multiple answers possible)
| Jan.04 | Oct.07 | Jul.11 | Jul.16 | |
| “Ordinary people”: employees, workers, rural workers | 29 | 14 | 19 | 15 |
| Intellectuals: teachers, doctors, engineers, ordinary specialists | 15 | 8 | 18 | 15 |
| Everyone without exception | 9 | 7 | 9 | 14 |
| “Middle class”: people with above-average incomes | 15 | 10 | 15 | 13 |
| The poorest segments of the population, the unemployed, the disadvantaged people | 15 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| Cultural and scientific elite | 5 | 4 | 9 | 8 |
| Federal and regional officials, bureaucracy | 4 | 9 | 9 | 7 |
| “Directorial corps”: managers of large enterprises | 3 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| “Oligarchs”, bankers, large entrepreneurs | 3 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| “Siloviki”: employees of special services, army, Ministry of Internal Affairs | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Difficult to answer | 34 | 47 | 37 | 37 |
INTERESTS OF WHAT STRATEGES OF THE POPULATION DOES PARNAS, IN YOUR VIEW, EXPRESS? (multiple answers possible)
| Jul.11 | Jul.16 | |
| “Oligarchs”, bankers, large entrepreneurs | 8 | 12 |
| “Directorial corps”: managers of large enterprises | 4 | 7 |
| Federal and regional officials, bureaucracy | 3 | 5 |
| Everyone without exception | 3 | 5 |
| Intellectuals: teachers, doctors, engineers, ordinary specialists | 2 | 3 |
| “Middle class”: people with above-average incomes | 2 | 3 |
| Cultural and scientific elite | 1 | 2 |
| “Ordinary people”: employees, workers, rural workers | 2 | 2 |
| Poor people, unemployed, disadvantaged people | 1 | 1 |
| “Siloviki”: employees of special services, army, Ministry of Internal Affairs | 1 | 1 |
| Difficult to answer | 79 | 71 |
IN YOUR VIEW, APPLE EXPRESSES THE INTERESTS OF WHICH CLASSES OF THE POPULATION? (multiple answers possible)
| Jun.03 | Jan.04 | Oct.07 | Jul.11 | Jul.16 | |
| Oligarchs,” bankers, large entrepreneurs | 9 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| “Directorial corps”: managers of large enterprises | 9 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 9 |
| Everyone without exception | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| Federal and regional officials, bureaucracy | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| Cultural and scientific elite | 16 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 7 |
| Intellectuals: teachers, doctors, engineers, ordinary specialists | 26 | 29 | 11 | 11 | 7 |
| “Middle class”: people with above-average incomes | 19 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 6 |
| “Ordinary people”: employees, workers, rural workers | 7 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| “Siloviki”: employees of special services, army, Ministry of Internal Affairs | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 VKontakte |
It is with sadness that I publish the results of our latest survey. We, as promised, did a completely identical Moscow survey.
Each card has three results for your convenience: federal in June, federal in July and Moscow.
And with sadness, because Moscow gives democratic parties 15-20% of the total number of votes that they can generally receive in the country. The result in Moscow is absolutely critical from the point of view of passing any barriers.
Focus of the survey in the study of YABLOKO, PARNAS and the Party of Growth, as well as their leaders.
Look what happens:
Awareness of the upcoming elections in Moscow is good.
The first key difference with the rest of the country: Muscovites do not want to go to the polls. The percentage of “I will definitely go” is much lower, the percentage of “I definitely won’t go” is higher than in Russia.
I doubt that this is due to the particular laziness of Muscovites; most likely, they are simply better informed and feel more keenly that the elections are not real.
The second key difference between Moscow and Russia: the rating of United Russia here is almost two times lower.
However (see above about “sad”) this does not add anything to democratically oriented parties. APPLE - 2%, PARNASUS - 1%.
The Party of Growth does not exist at all. But there are many more “undecided” people. Muscovites don’t want to vote for EdRo, and they don’t know who to vote for.
You can try to throw out those who are undecided and calculate party ratings among those who will definitely go to vote and have made their choice. I repeat that this can be done with a very big stretch, because the votes of those who are undecided will not necessarily be distributed in the same way as the votes of those who know who they will vote for. But if you do this, then the pre-election situation looks like this:
While YABLOKO has a chance of gaining only 5% in Moscow, PARNAS - 2%. This means results of around two and one percent for the entire country.
Scroll through the slides to see the personal ratings of the leaders of YABLOKO, PARNAS and the Party of Growth. In general, the picture is similar in Moscow and Russia. We see that Muscovites are somewhat more informed about democratic politicians, they recognize them better - but this awareness increases not only the rating, but also the anti-rating (it’s clear here - television works). This is especially noticeable in Mikhail Kasyanov’s slide.
What do I want to say about the survey results? Or rather, what I want to address to PARNAS and YABLOKO, the parties on whose side my sympathies are:
- Election campaign, my friends. Where is she? There is less than a month before the elections, and I don’t see the SMALLEST trace of your election campaigns. I see some single-mandate candidates (and they, as befits single-mandate candidates, do their best to hide their party affiliation), but I don’t see your party campaigns.
Nothing will work like that. You probably think: in Moscow they don’t like United Russia, so people will automatically vote for us. Forget it. It doesn't work that way, and you've seen it yourself many times. In 2003, in 2007, in 2011. We must somehow be present in the political field. We all expect this from you.
26 days before voting. This is already very difficult, but you can still try and make a breakthrough. Involve party activists and volunteers. Take to the streets. Make important statements. That is, work as the party should do a month before the elections.
In general, I note that everything is very strange. Deputies are being elected for the next 5 years, but there is almost no sign of the elections on the streets. Everything is clear to me with the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Socialist Republic, but what about the Democrats?
Elections will become elections when we gain access to real participants.
PS
FBK thanks all the volunteers who help us with surveys. Thanks to you, we have sociology we can trust.
Every day that Russia approaches the elections on September 18, new details are emerging in the picture that clarifies the situation about who will win the State Duma elections in 2016. If earlier the forecast for the outcome of the vote was clear ─ United Russia and its leaders are again at the helm ─, then today the number of helmsmen in state power may change. According to anonymous opinion polls, young people and middle-aged people more often began to give preference to the LDPR. Older people traditionally support the Communist Party. The opposition is finding fewer and fewer sympathizers. The Parnassus party is gaining popularity every week, while the leader and majority party United Russia has lost part of the electorate due to the decline in the popularity of its leader Dmitry Medvedev. According to experts, the majority of Duma seats will, of course, go to United Russia, but for the first time their percentage will be reduced. Due to changes in the 2016 election procedure and voting for half of the candidates in single-member districts (in fact, they will vote for the individual), the final result of the September 18 elections may be a surprise to everyone.
Who will win the State Duma elections in 2016 ─ expert opinion
Today, the balance of power in the Russian political arena suggests that the State Duma, elected on September 18, 2016, will be “three-party.” “A Just Russia”, quite a bit behind the top three leaders of United Russia, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, is constantly balancing on the threshold of the five percent barrier. Moreover, with the growing popularity of the liberal democratic party, the balance was slightly upset. “A Just Russia” has lost a share of the percentage of voters who support it. Opposition parties, according to experts and political scientists, are generally likely to enter the State Duma only thanks to deputies elected in single-mandate constituencies. Today, outsider parties should think about how to most effectively campaign for their nominees in constituencies. Given high support for their candidates, each minority party's faction will increase. Thus, they will also be able to influence the outcome of further votes in the Duma and whether laws and amendments to them will be banned. Exparts believe that United Russia will win the State Duma elections in 2016 again. The “silver” winner of the race may change: the LDPR and its permanent leader Vladimir Volfovich Zhirinovsky are doing everything possible to win. Gennady Andreevich Zyuganov, who has also headed his party (the Communist Party of the Russian Federation) for many years, provides his comrades with support. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party and United Russia are the top three.
Who will win the State Duma elections in 2016 ─ forecast
You don’t need to be an experienced political scientist to make a forecast about the victory of parties in the State Duma elections. In 2016, United Russia is leading by a large margin from their rivals and future comrades and colleagues. However, it is difficult to make a forecast regarding the second and third places in the lower house of the Russian parliament until September. Even in winter, the communists (CPRF) followed the United Russia. Today the LDPR has surpassed them in this segment of the distance before the elections. Deputies elected to the State Duma of the seventh convocation will have a difficult time. The previous composition of the Duma began its work in a more favorable political and economic situation both in the country and in the world as a whole. There has not yet been a Ukrainian Maidan, which entailed a quick decision by the Crimeans to return to Russia. There was no civil war yet in Ukraine. Russia was neither under economic sanctions nor under political pressure. Now the deputies elected by the people will have a more difficult time than all the compositions of the State Duma that have ever been elected. The country needs to be pulled out of the economic crisis. You will have to learn to ignore political games. Deputies must become more loyal and wiser. Most likely, the situation in the world and in Russia will be greatly influenced by the upcoming presidential elections in the United States. In the United States, a new, 45th head of state will appear in November, and this person will be extraordinary. No matter who Russia and the Duma deputies have to deal with - the woman wife of the country’s ex-president or a billionaire clearly interested in growing personal popularity, the working conditions of the people’s elected representatives will be non-standard.
Who will win the State Duma elections in 2016 ─ opinion poll
While Western political scientists are predicting a new revolution in Russia in 2017, sociologists are conducting independent surveys of the population. They ask people on the streets who they are going to vote for on September 18th. According to updated data from sociological surveys conducted in June 2016, 44% of Russian citizens decided to definitely vote in the 2016 elections. Some of them are still hesitating, because they are not sure that their decision can affect the outcome of the election campaign. At the same time, United Russia has already lost 7-8% in the rating, and does not feel so confident as a winner. The initially planned holidays for deputies of the Duma of the 6th convocation have been cancelled: some of the old people's deputies will again claim the right to work in the lower house of the Russian parliament.
Of course, the question of who will win the State Duma elections in 2016 in any, even greatly changed, alignment of political forces has already been decided: United Russia will win the majority. V. Zhirinovsky and the LDPR party, by supporting United Russia, actually add “percentage of popularity” to themselves. Thus, according to the latest opinion polls, expert opinions and forecasts, only three parties, United Russia, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, will enter the Duma.
The upcoming elections to the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation are already the seventh in the history of the country. On September 18, 2016, citizens will once again elect those people who will initiate and pass laws, as well as represent the interests of their constituents in one of the most important government bodies.
What forecasts do experts make? Who will win the State Duma elections? Which party will get the majority? Will the representatives of United Russia be able to retain their leadership and who are called its main political competitors today?
Who will win the State Duma elections: expert forecasts
Russian politics has only existed for 25 years. During this time, a number of parties appeared (and disappeared). A narrow circle of representatives of these parties formed the (virtually unchanged) backbone of the legislative branch. The United Russia Party regularly tops ratings and polls. Competitors - the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, A Just Russia, and now the People's Freedom Party (PARNAS) actively promote their ideas during periods of active political struggle preceding each election season.
From the point of view of political scientists and analysts, the elections on September 18, 2016 will not bring surprises. The established system will change (there is a chance), but, according to political strategists, voters still believe that the government should not be changed. According to another point of view, these experts are guided by surveys of past years and do not take into account the changes that have occurred in the public consciousness. 
Representatives of United Russia will continue to dominate state politics. At the same time, the latest failures of United Russia and the falling rating of the “party in power” give reason to count on new faces in the State Duma and a new parliamentary majority.
Whether these will be candidates from the LDPR, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, or A Just Russia, time will tell. Analysts are based only on current ratings.
Who will win the Duma elections: poll results
The All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM) conducts sociological surveys on the topic of who will win the elections to the State Duma. As of September 4, 2016, the rating of parties according to VTsIOM is as follows:
- “United Russia” – 39.3%;
- LDPR – 10.4%;
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation - 8.7%;
- “A Just Russia” – 5.3;
- “For justice” – 1.6;
- “Apple” – 1.1%.
The remaining parties currently gain less than one percent. Therefore, they are not opponents of the current leaders.
The results of the VTsIOM survey correspond to the opinion of experts, but the latter recommend paying attention to the dynamics of changes in voters' preferences. When analyzing the data that VTsIOM publishes literally every week during the pre-election period, several interesting points can be observed at once. Firstly, the rating of United Russia is falling (in the long term) (up to 5% per month). The party is noticeably losing popularity, but this is not due to an increase in the ratings of its main opponents (LDPR, Communist Party of the Russian Federation, A Just Russia). Surveys show that the percentage of citizens who find it difficult to make their choice or do not intend to go to the polls on September 18, 2016 continues to grow: in August the figures increased from 10.1% to 14.6% and from 11.1% to 14.7 % respectively. All this indicates a loss of interest among Russian citizens in who will win the State Duma elections and in the election process as a whole.
Who will win the State Duma elections: psychic predictions
It is no secret that many citizens use the services of predictors and fortune-tellers and those who know the future. Politicians themselves claim close contacts with such “professional fortune tellers.” Top officials of states resort to the help of psychics, often creating secret departments of special services for this purpose. Who will win the State Duma elections according to such predictors? Psychics and sorcerers assure that the upcoming elections to the State Duma will not cause serious changes in the political map of the country. Experts, analysts, and forecasters are unanimous in their conclusions: in 2016, United Russia will again receive the majority of seats in the main legislative body of the country. This suggests that the domestic and foreign policies of the state will not change.
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Political scientists, election lawyers and other election experts gave forecasts for the upcoming Duma elections and recommendations to their participants. The main intrigue is which party will be able to take advantage of the discontent due to the crisis. And here experts predict “bonuses” for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. However, there is an option that United Russia will even strengthen its position.
The “main forks” of the 2016 elections were discussed at a conference of professional election campaign organizers at the site of the Civil Society Development Fund (CSD).
VTsIOM General Director Valery Fedorov told us what kind of electorate we will be working with. According to recent opinion polls, the number of Russians who consider themselves victims of the crisis has increased from 47 to 60% since January. Interestingly, the level of support from the federal center suffered less because of this than the overall rating of regional authorities. And the level of support for the president remained unchanged throughout the year - about 80%. As for the regional authorities, they lost 11% over the year - their overall level of support dropped to 48%, the “federals” lost 7% (to 60%).
There was no significant demand for a “political alternative.” Citizens are satisfied with the current parties - the ratings of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and A Just Russia increased by several percent even before the start of the campaign.
As for the fears of the population, VTsIOM noted an interesting trend. In the foreground is the external threat and political instability, not the internal economic one.
“People are afraid of protest psychologically, remembering the Maidan,” reasoned the president of the Center for Political Technologies, Igor Bunin. “They reason: “God forbid, this will happen to us.” And there is practically no one to stir up protest sentiments.”
However, there is still a chance to take advantage of discontent due to economic deterioration. All representatives of the parliamentary opposition will try to play on this to varying degrees. However, experts named the Communist Party of the Russian Federation as the main “beneficiary”. The Duma opposition will try to “beat the government and support the president,” reasoned the head of the Baxter Group consulting company, Dmitry Gusev. The goal will also be political “erosion” at the lower regional levels. The Socialist-Revolutionaries, according to his assessment, have a chance to rise from 5-6 to 10-12%, and the LDPR can also “earn a little extra.”
General Director of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications Dmitry Orlov agreed that the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, as well as the Socialist-Revolutionaries, will try to ride out protest sentiments, but the chances that they will succeed are slim. The chance for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is 30%, for the “Right Russia” – only 15%. Rodina will try to play on the left flank, but the chance of success, according to Orlov, is only 10%. There will be the same chance if you rely on the nationalists. The five percent barrier still cannot be overcome without strong leaders, the expert reasoned.
Orlov gave the championship to the party in power, which will gather more than 60%, even strengthening its position compared to the 2011 elections. The main “clearing” for maneuvers is single-member constituencies.
“The level of legitimacy of the system is quite high, and if protest sentiments are observed, they will be at the regional level,” Orlov concluded.
However, United Russia needs to work hard to implement a good scenario for itself. Among the conditions are reliance on real leaders of public opinion, emphasis on the anti-corruption agenda, and the legitimacy of the campaign, the political scientist said.
The head of ForGO, Konstantin Kostin, believes that United Russia will be able to earn an absolute majority (more than 50%). He agrees that the result will be better in single-member districts. The Socialist-Revolutionaries, according to his forecast, will not be able to play on social discontent - any slogans on this topic will work for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. As for non-parliamentary parties, they will appear in the Duma only as single-mandate candidates (candidates from Rodina and Patriots).
“In any case, there will be no standard solutions and slogans,” Kostin concluded. “In order to be heard, you must be different.”