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Payback period: formula and calculation methods, example. Transport business plan

They say that happiness is the absence of choice. The piquancy of our situation is that interested legal or individuals are forced to choose, even if only from three positions: their own, hired transport, or both together in a certain proportion. When the choice is correct, business is booming.

The decision-making process is broken down by many more questions: what is the optimal ratio of own and hired transport in a company, depending on the profile of its activity? What factors influence the choice of brands and models of cars for the company's rolling stock? Where to repair your vehicle fleet - build your own repair zone or use external services? How can a cargo owner avoid making a mistake when choosing a transport or forwarding partner company?

These are just a few questions; in practice there are many more. How the leaders of motor transport companies approach solving this multifaceted problem and the way to achieve economic happiness was discussed in September of this year at the Third International Motor Transport Forum in Moscow at Crocus Expo at the “Practice of Professionals” conference.

Is own transport always more profitable than hired transport?

Schneider Electric method engineer, Candidate of Economic Sciences, independent logistics expert Roman Bespalov presented his vision of the question: “is own transport really always more profitable than hired transport?”

According to R. Bespalov, own transport is more profitable than hired transport, but only if the transport fleet is scalable, an effective system for monitoring and managing transport business processes is built, as well as with proper staff motivation. In a situation where cargo transportation is a non-core function for an enterprise, it is logical to pose the question in exactly the opposite direction: what set of measures should be taken to ensure that your own transport is not less profitable than hired transport? Let us immediately make a reservation that we will be talking about enterprises that have at their disposal at least fifty heavy-duty vehicles.

Analysis of the pros and cons of own and hired vehicle fleets

Advantages of own vehicle fleet:

clients are provided with the maximum high level service due to flexible regulation of the timing and frequency of cargo dispatch;
full control of the technical condition and location of vehicles (provided they are equipped with radio stations, RFID tags, GPS devices, etc.), which ensures a high level of accuracy in meeting delivery deadlines;
the possibility of using flexible motivational schemes for drivers and forwarders.

The disadvantages of own transport fleet include:

forced long-term freezing of financial resources spent on the purchase of vehicles and real estate for the organization of garages, repair shops, warehouses for storing fuels and lubricants, spare parts, etc.;
increase in the tax base;
depreciation of fixed assets;
insurance costs;
the need for regular monitoring of the technical condition of cars (the cost of car maintenance and repairs is approximately 60% of total number vehicle fleet costs);
vehicle administration costs;
costs of hiring additional transport in case of lack of your own;
idle mileage and downtime during periods of seasonal downturns, vehicle repairs;
dissipation of efforts and financial resources on non-core activities.

Advantages of a hired vehicle fleet:

complete absence of disadvantages inherent in own transport;
ease of management of the delivery process.

Disadvantages of a hired transport fleet:

costs for compensation for the supply of vehicles for loading;
risks when choosing service providers;
the need to constantly monitor the market for more profitable cooperation options;
errors made by a third-party transport company still fall on your company;
lack of flexibility transport company- service provider if previously unplanned deliveries are necessary;
insufficient development of the transport services outsourcing market;
high cost of transport services.

Regarding the last point - the high cost of hired vehicle services - we can say that it seems so until the costs of maintaining your own transport fleet are calculated.

Possible options for creating your own transport fleet

This can be a purchase with a lump sum payment of the full cost of the cars. There are no hidden risks here, but significant financial resources will be withdrawn from working capital. This will limit the company’s investment opportunities, and there will be an automatic increase in the tax base.

You can consider purchasing vehicles on credit. In this case, it is not necessary to extract the entire amount of money from the company’s turnover at a time, but there are some negative factors. A package of documents on the financial condition of the enterprise will need to be submitted to the financial institution. An additional financial burden on the company will be the mandatory CASCO insurance for each vehicle. Until the loan is fully repaid, the vehicles will be pledged to the bank, which will deprive the company of the opportunity to perform any actions with the vehicles. For example, it will no longer be possible to sell a car until the loan is repaid. A bank that doubts the financial reliability of the company may require additional collateral. In addition, after signing the loan agreement, all risks associated with vehicle ownership are transferred to the borrower.

If you use financial leasing, the cost savings compared to direct purchase and purchase of a vehicle on credit are up to 20% of the cost of the car due to some features. In leasing, there are opportunities to legally reduce tax payments, simplified Accounting, administrative costs are minimized. Leasing allows you to avoid moral and physical wear and tear of your vehicle fleet.

Possible options for transportation by third parties

Here the field for maneuver is much wider - you can completely outsource the process of managing a transport fleet. Even greater efficiency can be achieved by simultaneously outsourcing warehouse functions (using the services of 3PL operators).

There is also such a service as operational leasing. This means that in addition to the vehicle itself, the lessor provides a set of additional services related to service, technical, administrative and other maintenance of the vehicle. This may include driving a vehicle. But due to the fact that this market has not yet been developed in the post-Soviet space, according to various estimates, operational leasing is 10 - 20% more expensive than full outsourcing.

You can also use the services of freight forwarding companies or trucking companies. It is practiced to hire (with the execution of contracts) individual vehicle owners.

The use of the services of forwarding companies, trucking companies and drivers - individual vehicle owners - is most widespread in the work of enterprises. Based on the principle of relationships, these options are similar, with the only difference being that when signing contracts with vehicle owners, the level of control is much higher.

Selection criterion - own or hired transport?

Among the factors influencing the choice (to deliver cargo using your own or someone else’s transport), the most important role is given to the economic factor.

The economic assessment consists of two stages.

1. It is necessary to determine the optimal ratio of the amount of work for your own and hired fleet. One of the most important reasons for reducing the efficiency of your own fleet is downtime due to seasonal sales. Avoiding losses of this kind is one of the main tasks in managing your own fleet. Therefore, the most efficient transport fleet cannot consist only of its own transport, but must be supplemented by hired ones. When choosing this work option, the need for transportation to calculate the number of required units of own transport is determined as the minimum value of the possible volume of work.

At the stage of creating your own vehicle fleet, alternative possibilities for using “extra” transport should be considered (for example, selling transportation services with available vehicles).

Here we compare the possible costs of own transport with the costs of hired transport in the following sequence:

the market analysis of transport service providers is carried out and those that best meet existing requirements are selected;
based on existing market tariffs, the average cost of transportation is calculated (for example, per hour of work);
the costs of using your own vehicle fleet are calculated;
Based on the calculations, graphs are constructed, at the point of intersection of which there is the same point of indifference.

When calculating the costs of maintaining your own transport, the following expense items should be taken into account:

fixed costs - wage fund (if payment is piecework, this item will be included in variable costs), repairs and maintenance, wear and tear, repairs and storage car tires, general business expenses, depreciation of fixed assets, taxes, risk insurance;
variable costs - fuel, lubricants and other operating materials, unforeseen expenses.

For example, own fixed costs are equal to $37,984, and own variable costs are $1.4/hour. The carrier's average market tariff is $5/hour. The indifference point is at approximately 11,100 hours. This means that with a standard eight-hour working day and a thirty-day working month, approximately 46 vehicles will handle this flow of cargo (number of vehicles = 11100308 ≈ 46.25). In other words, if the volume of transportation needs is greater than 11,100 hours per month, then a more economical option would be to organize your own fleet.

Ensuring effective management and control of the vehicle fleet

There are many factors that reduce the efficiency of a transport fleet. They can be associated both with external influences (for example, traffic jams) and with errors of one’s own personnel. The lack of special controls will inevitably lead to financial losses.

To ensure the required level of management and control, the following methods can be used:

use of geographic information applications for planning delivery routes;
use of operational communication equipment with the vehicle (radio stations), monitoring and navigation along the route (GPS-based systems);
use of information systems for accounting and analysis of transport costs;
introduction of effective motivational schemes for personnel at all levels.

Corporate development strategy

It is necessary to understand that a decrease in working capital may prevent the company from achieving its key performance indicators. It has been proven by practice that the opening of new areas of activity by an enterprise brings a significantly lower return compared to investing the same funds in the development of its core activity.

So, for example, a trading company organizing its own transport division when best case scenario will bring an increase in profitability by 10 - 15%, while opening new stores with an investment of the same amount of money can provide an increase in profitability of up to 30%.

In addition, we can say with confidence that at first - three to six months - the efficiency of your own fleet will be lower than the services of professional carriers due to the lack of experience among staff and the need to resolve many organizational, administrative and legal aspects of activity.

The question often arises: does the company need special transport (cranes, tanks, concrete mixers, cash-in-transit vehicles) and how regularly is it expected to be used? Obviously, if special transport is often needed, it is better to own it, since the cost of renting it is high. There is also a high probability that special equipment service providers may not have any vehicles available at the right time.

And one more important aspect in building a company’s development strategy: you need to immediately determine what is more important for the company - the highest possible service for the client or minimal logistics costs? Our own fleet of vehicles will allow us to fulfill customer orders with maximum efficiency, but it is obvious that it will not be cheap. If the specifics of the company’s activities are such that it is more profitable to satisfy the client’s needs as much as possible, rather than saving on logistics, then the choice should definitely be made in favor of its own fleet of vehicles (or at least having several vehicles, at least for urgent deliveries). Otherwise, it is more profitable to entrust the task of delivering cargo to professionals.

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MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

(MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT OF RUSSIA)

FEDERAL AIR TRANSPORT AGENCY

(ROSAVIATION)

FSBEI HPE "ST. PETERSBURG STATE

CIVIL AVIATION UNIVERSITY

COURSE WORK

by discipline

“Economic assessment of investments in transport”

Topic: “Comparative assessment of the economic efficiency of an investment project for the acquisition of vehicles.”

Completed by: Levitskaya A.V.

Saint Petersburg

Introduction

The purpose of this course work is to consolidate the theoretical knowledge of the discipline and master the practical aspects of the issues discussed in the work:

1. Generate the cost of transportation by brand of selected vehicles.

2. Determine the efficiency of purchasing vehicles when various sources financing by calculating the criteria “Net present value” and “Discounted payback period” (graphically).

3. Compare the effectiveness of investment projects and draw conclusions.

To complete the course work based on data on the volume of cargo transportation, the nature of the cargo and the characteristics of vehicles (Table 1), we will select the model of the car (vehicles) and their number.

Motor vehicles can be purchased according to various schemes:

Ownership (including lending);

Under a financial leasing agreement

Table 1. Vehicle characteristics

Table 2. Initial data for calculation

Indicator name	Option number

Volume of cargo transportation, t.
Nature of the cargo
Terms (period) of transportation
Average length of transportation route, km
Nature of transportation

Legend:

Art. - cargo that does not require a special temperature regime, standard cargo (standard packaging sizes, cargo does not require a constant transportation temperature)

EDN - daily (on weekdays); UNM - weekly

D - intracity transportation (total length of the door-to-door route)

1. Calculation of the required quantity, vehicle and amount of projected capital investments

When choosing a vehicle, additional restrictions must be taken into account:

The average speed of vehicles within the city is 30 km/h

The working day for a driver is 8 hours

Driver work schedule 5 days / 2 days).

Based on the characteristics of the selected type of vehicles and their quantity, we will determine the total amount of projected capital investments (Table 3).

Let's determine the required number of cars:

The volume of cargo transportation according to the condition is 20 tons. daily, the carrying capacity of one vehicle is 5 tons, since the average length of the route is 120 km, and average speed, vehicle 30 km/h, then

the duration of one flight is:

120/30=4 hours, the driver’s working day is 8 hours, which means there are 2 flights per day of 5 tons. one car equals 10 tons, which means we need 2 cars.

Table 3

Amount of projected capital investments

2. Calculation of the cost of transportation by road

When choosing types of vehicles or when using different schedules for their operation, the calculation of cost by item is carried out for each type of vehicle separately and then summed up.

Calculation of costs for fuel and lubricants.

Fuel consumption rates increase under the following conditions:

Operation of motor transport in cities with a population of over 3 million people - up to 25%, we will take 20%

The standard cost for lubricants is: for foreign-made cars - 4.5%.

The cost of 1 liter of diesel fuel at the time of current expenses is on average 33 rubles.

The final calculation of costs for fuel and lubricants is presented in the form of a table (Table 4).

Table 4. Calculation of costs for fuel and lubricants (2 vehicles)

Indicator name	Meaning	Note
Fuel consumption rate, l/100 km
Increase in consumption rate, l/100km
Total fuel consumption rate, l/100km
Vehicle mileage per trip, km
Duration of voyage with cargo, h
Fuel cost, rub/l
Fuel costs per flight, thousand rubles.		Calculation under the table.
Cost rate for lubricants, %		Calculation under the tab
Costs for lubricants per trip, thousand rubles.
Fuel consumption during operation of the refrigeration unit per hour, rub.
Fuel consumption during operation of the refrigeration unit per flight with cargo, thousand rubles.
Number of flights per year		Calculation under the tab
Expenses on fuel and lubricants for the year, thousand rubles.		№11*(№6+№8)

Calculation of fuel costs for 1 flight:

120km*18l/100km =21.6l for 1 flight

21.6l*33r=712.8r =0.7 thousand rubles

Calculation of lubricant costs per trip:

0.7*4.5%=0.03 thousand rubles

Calculation of the number of flights per year (2 cars):

According to the condition, drivers have a five-day workday, which means one vehicle makes 2 trips per day, 10 trips per week (including weekends), 40 trips per month and 480 trips per year, we have 2 vehicles, which means the total number of trips per year is 960

Expenses for driver salaries and travel expenses

The driver's salary for intracity transportation is 15,000 rubles per month. The insurance premium rate is 30% of the drivers' wage fund, the insurance rate for insurance against industrial accidents (class 6 professional risk) is 0.7% of the drivers' wage fund.

Calculation of drivers' wages and insurance premiums is carried out according to the form (Table 5).

Table 5. Calculation of costs for wages and social insurance contributions

Indicator name	Meaning	Note
Amount of monthly salary of 1 driver, thousand rubles.
Number of drivers
Amount of monthly expenses for wages, thousand roubles.
Social insurance expenses per month, thousand rubles.
Total amount of expenses for wages and social insurance for the month, thousand rubles.
Total amount of expenses for wages and social insurance for the year, thousand rubles.

3. Costs for wear and tear of car tires

The standard tire mileage is on average 70,000 km (regardless of the type and brand of tires).

For light and medium-duty vehicles, the purchase of “winter tires” is required.

The initial purchase of tires is reflected in the amount of investment resources.

Calculation of costs for tire wear and retreading is presented in the form (Table 7).

Table 7

Calculation of tire wear and retreading costs

The current average cost of one tire is 8 thousand rubles,

1 car has 6 wheels, two sets (winter, summer) make up 12 tires per car, which means 24 tires are needed for 2 cars.

Let's calculate the vehicle's mileage per year and compare it with the standard:

A car makes 2 trips per day = 240 km, per year 240 working days * 240 km = 57.6 thousand km

We get 2 sets of tires according to the standard, enough for 2 years of use, which means for 1 year: 12 * 8 = 96 thousand rubles.

4. Depreciation of a vehicle (semi-trailer)

The useful life of a truck and semi-trailer is 5 years. Depreciation is determined linear method(Table 8).

Annual depreciation is equal to the ratio of the original cost of the car to its useful life.

The average annual cost of a car is defined as the arithmetic average between the initial and residual value of the car.

Table 8

Calculation of depreciation and residual value of a vehicle

Initial cost, thousand rubles.	Amount of accrued depreciation, thousand rubles.	Residual value, thousand rubles.	Average annual cost, thousand rubles.

5. Calculation of costs for scheduled maintenance (MOT) of vehicles and car insurance under CASCO

Calculation of planned maintenance is carried out on the basis of initial data on its average cost maintenance and overhaul mileage (see Table 1). The number of maintenance units per month (year) is determined by calculation (Table 9). When calculating the number of maintenance units for a period, rounding up to an integer value is performed.

According to the condition, scheduled maintenance is every 20 thousand km, the mileage of 1 car per year is 57.6, which means for 1 car per year 3 maintenance, for 2 cars 6 maintenance per year.

Table 9

Calculation of costs for scheduled maintenance

Calculation of insurance payments for CASCO is carried out on the basis of interest rates (see Table 1) and the residual value of the car (see Table 8) for each year (Table 10). The CASCO rate does not change as the depreciation of the car increases.

Table 10

Calculation of payments under CASCO (2 vehicles)

Calculation of tax payments

The transport tax rate is 40 rubles. for 1 l/s, that means transport tax will be:

130hp*40r=5.2 thousand rubles *2 cars=10.4 thousand rubles.

Property tax is determined based on the average annual cost of the car. The tax rate is 2.2%

Income tax is determined based on gross profit reduced by the amount of property tax and car insurance under CASCO. The income tax rate is 20%.

Calculation of the total cost of transportation

The annual increase in fuel prices is planned by 0.5% per year, and driver wages by 1% per year.

Other costs account for 10% of the total costs for the year (excluding depreciation).

To calculate the financial result (Table 13) it is necessary:

Income is defined as the product of the total cost (including depreciation) by a factor of 1.21, which takes into account the increase in the rate of profit. The rate of return invested in the price is 20%

Gross profit is defined as the difference between income and the total cost of production;

Profit from the sale of transportation is gross profit reduced by corporate property tax and CASCO payments.

6. Calculation of the economic efficiency of the project

The implementation of a vehicle acquisition project is possible under various conditions:

Acquisition of property using own funds;

Acquisition of property using credit resources;

Purchase under a leasing agreement.

IN course work a comparative calculation of the efficiency of purchasing vehicles using credit resources and under a leasing agreement is considered.

To determine the economic efficiency of an investment project in the course work, it is necessary to calculate the criteria “net present value” and “discounted payback period”.

The calculation is based on determining the net cash flow by year of project implementation. To determine net cash flow you need to:

Transfer relevant data from tables to appropriate rows;

Net flow is defined as the difference between the inflow and outflow of the project.

Table 12

Calculation of the cost of transportation, thousand rubles.

Index

Fuel and lubricant costs
Driver wage costs with deductions
Travel expenses
Tire wear and retreading costs
Expenses for scheduled maintenance
Transport tax
other expenses
Total cost (without depreciation)
Depreciation deductions
Total costs including depreciation (full cost)

Table 13

Calculation of financial results, thousand rubles.

Index

Cost without depreciation
Depreciation deductions
Full cost
Income (taking into account profit margin)
Gross profit
Property tax

Profit from the sale of transportation

Discounting is the time value of money.

Net present (discounted) value (NPV - net present value of cash flows) is the sum of cash flows discounted over the years for all periods of the project:

where r is the interest rate used for this investment project;

T - period of project implementation.

Net present value shows the real value of the results at different times from the implementation of a specific project. The rule for selecting projects based on the net present value criterion states: a project is acceptable to an investor if its net present value is greater than zero. A positive net present value indicates not only full reimbursement of the costs of the investment project at the projected level of return on capital, but also the receipt of additional income, that is, an increase in the assets of the enterprise as a result of the adoption of the project.

For further calculations, the discount rate is taken at a rate of 14% per year.

The discounted payback period is determined graphically, where the horizontal axis is the serial number of the year the project was implemented, and the vertical axis is the sum of the net present value for a given year.

6.1 Calculation of the efficiency of purchasing cars when using credit resources

The loan is repaid in differentiated payments based on the outstanding balance under the agreement. The annual repayment of the principal debt is carried out evenly.

The loan balance for the first year is determined as the amount of investment resources taking into account the share of use of credit resources. The loan balance in subsequent years is determined as the difference between the loan balance for the previous period and the principal amount for the current year. The amount of accrued interest is calculated as the product of the loan balance and the interest rate on the loan. Loan repayment is calculated according to the form (Table 15).

3270-100% 2943-90% 327-10%

2943:4 years=735.75t.r.

At 11% per annum

The net present value is calculated according to the form (Table 16). Based on the data in the table, it is necessary to construct a schedule for the payback period of the project.

6.2 Calculation of the efficiency of purchasing cars under a leasing agreement.

Calculation of leasing payments is made annually in equal parts based on the calculation of the total amount of the leasing payment. The sequence for calculating lease payments is as follows.

1. The amount of leasing payments is calculated by year if the leasing agreement is for a period of more than one year

2. The total amount of leasing payments for the entire term of the leasing agreement is calculated as the sum of payments by year.

3. The amount of leasing payments is calculated in accordance with the frequency of payments chosen by the parties (annually).

The total amount of leasing payments (excluding VAT) is calculated using the formula

LP = AO + PC + CV + DU, (2)

where LP is the total amount of leasing payments;

AO - the amount of depreciation due to the lessor in the current year;

PC - payment for the credit resources used by the lessor for the acquisition of property - the object of the leasing agreement; KV - commission remuneration to the lessor for the provision of property under a leasing agreement;

DU - payment to the lessor for Additional services lessee, provided for in the leasing agreement.

Depreciation charges are determined by the ratio of the original cost to the useful life

AO = initial cost / useful life

The payment for credit resources used by the lessor for the acquisition of property - the subject of the agreement is calculated according to the formula

PC = Q x KR x STk / 100%, (3)

where PC is the fee for used credit resources, rub.; Q is a coefficient that takes into account the share of borrowed funds in the total cost of the acquired property. If only borrowed funds are used to purchase property, coefficient Q = 1 or 100%;

KR - the amount of credit resources, rub.;

STk - loan rate, % per annum.

It is meant that in each accounting year, the payment for the used credit resources is correlated with the average annual amount of the outstanding loan in that year or with the average annual residual value of the property - the subject of the agreement:

KRt = (OCn + OCk) / 2 (4)

where KRt are credit resources used for the purchase of property, payment for which is made in the accounting year, rub.;

OCn and OCk - the estimated residual value of the property at the beginning and end of the year, respectively, rub.

The commission fee (CF) is calculated from the average annual residual value of the property using the formula

KWt = ((OSn + OSk) /2) x STv / 100, (5b)

where Stv is the commission rate, set as a percentage of the average annual residual value of the property - the subject of the contract. Those

KV1=2943x6/100=176.58

KV2=2289x6/100=147.94 etc. by year

The fee for additional services in the billing year is calculated using the formula:

DUt = (P + P + ... Pn) / T, (6)

DUt - fee for additional services in the accounting year, rub.; P, P, .., Pn - the lessor's expense for each service provided for in the contract, rub.;

T - contract term, years.

Additional services include property insurance (CASCO), local taxes (for example, property tax), etc.

The conditions for purchasing cars under a leasing agreement are presented in the table (Table 14).

Table 14. Terms of the loan agreement

Table 15

Calculation of loan repayment, thousand rubles.

The conditions for using credit resources are formulated earlier in the table (except for the term of the loan agreement) (see Table 14). Loan payments are calculated using formulas (3) and (4).

The amount of additional services includes property tax and CASCO insurance.

Payment of leasing payments (included in costs) is carried out annually in equal shares.

The total amount of leasing payments is presented in the form (Table 18).

The amount of the annual leasing payment is calculated using the formula

LVg = LP: T, (7)

where LVg is the amount of the annual leasing payment, rub.;

LP - total amount of leasing payments, rub.;

T is the term of the leasing agreement, years.

Based on the calculations made, a cash flow table is generated, in which the “net present value” criterion is calculated for the project, where the amount of capital investments will be the amount of the advance payment (Table 19).

Table 16

Cash Flow Table

Index
Inflow, thousand rubles
Outflow, thousand rubles
Capital investments

Income tax
Property tax

Loan payments
CF (net flow), thousand rubles.
DCF (discounted net flow), thousand rubles.
NPV, thousand rubles

Graphical method for determining the payback period of a project.

car transportation leasing credit

Two projects:

1-Blue graph - acquisition of property using credit resources;

2-Green schedule - purchase under a leasing agreement.

Table 17

Conditions for execution of a financial leasing agreement

Table 18

Calculation of leasing payments for the entire period of the contract, thousand rubles.

Depreciation	Payment for credit resources	Commission remuneration	Additional services	Total payment for the year

Table 19

Cash flow table, thousand rubles.

Index


Capital investments
Cost without depreciation
Lease payment
Income tax
CF (clean flow)
DCF (Discounted Net Flow)

We calculated the possibility of purchasing vehicles for two projects:

1-acquisition of property using credit resources;

2 - purchase under a leasing agreement.

We determined the discounted payback period in both projects and showed the obtained data in the graph in Fig. 1

After analyzing the data, we can draw the following conclusions.

Project 1 payback period (profit=0) was 4.2 years

Project 2 payback period (profit=0) was 4.6 years

The graphs converged at one point at around 3.7 years at NPV= -42.0t.r.

Over a period of 5 years, project No. 1 brought a profit of 18.3 thousand rubles, and project No. 2 - 34 thousand rubles.

Despite the fact that project No. 1 had smaller losses in the years before reaching mark 0, project No. 2 paid off over the same period and, moreover, brought in almost twice as much profit.

Based on this, the conclusion is that an investment project for the acquisition of vehicles under a leasing agreement is more effective for the enterprise.

List of used literature

1. Tax Code of the Russian Federation. Part 2.

2. Federal Law of the Russian Federation “On insurance premiums in Pension Fund Russian Federation, Foundation social insurance Russian Federation, Federal Mandatory Fund health insurance and territorial compulsory health insurance funds" No. 212-FZ dated July 24, 2009 (with subsequent amendments).

3. Order of the Ministry of Health and Social Development of the Russian Federation dated December 18, 2006 No. 857 “On approval of the classification of species economic activity by occupational risk classes.”

4. Order of the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation dated March 14, 2008 No. AM-23-r “On bringing into force methodological recommendations“Consumption standards for fuels and lubricants in road transport.”

5. Investments: Textbook. /Ed. V.V. Kovaleva. - M.; Prospect, 2006.

6. Orlova E.R. Investments: Tutorial. - M.; OMEGA-L, 2008.

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The meaning of the calculation

One of the most important indicators when determining the effectiveness of investments is the payback period. Its formula shows over what period of time the income from the project will cover all the one-time costs of it. The method makes it possible to calculate the time for repayment of funds, which the investor then correlates with his economically advantageous and acceptable period.

Economic analysis involves the use of various methods in calculating the mentioned indicators. It is used if a comparative analysis is carried out to determine the most profitable project. It is important that it is not used as the main and only parameter, but is calculated and analyzed in conjunction with the others, showing the effectiveness of a particular investment option.

Calculating the repayment period as the main indicator can be used if the company is aimed at a quick return on investment. For example, when choosing ways to improve the company.

Other than that equal conditions The project with the shortest return period is accepted for implementation.

Return on investment is a formula that shows the number of periods (years or months) during which an investor will return his investment in full. In other words, a refund. It should be remembered that this period should be shorter than the period of time during which external loans are used.

What is needed for calculation

The payback period (the formula for its use) requires knowledge of the following indicators:

project costs - this includes all investments made since its inception;
net income per year is the proceeds from the implementation of the project received in a year, but minus all costs, including taxes;
depreciation for a period (year) - the amount of money that was spent on improving the project and methods of its implementation (modernization and repair of equipment, improvement of equipment, etc.);
duration of costs (meaning investment).

And to calculate the discounted return on investment, it is important to take into account:

the receipt of all funds made during the period of time under consideration;
discount rate;
the period for which to discount;
initial investment amount.

Formula for calculating payback

The return on investment period is determined taking into account the nature of the project's revenue. If it is assumed that cash flows are received evenly throughout the entire duration of the project, the payback period, the formula of which is presented below, can be calculated as follows:

Where T is the return on investment period;

I - attachments;

D - the total amount of profit.

In this case, the full amount of income consists of depreciation.

It will help to understand how expedient the project under consideration is when using this methodology, the fact that the resulting value for the return period of the invested funds should be lower than that set by the investor.

In real conditions of the project, the investor refuses it if the return period for investments is higher than the limit value he has set. Or he is looking for methods to reduce the payback period.

For example, an investor invests 100 thousand rubles in a project. Income from the project:

in the first month amounted to 25 thousand rubles;
in the second month - 35 thousand rubles;
in the third month - 45 thousand rubles.

In the first two months, the project did not pay off, since 25+35 = 60 thousand rubles, which is less than the amount of investment. Thus, we can understand that the project paid for itself in three months, since 60+45 = 105 thousand rubles.

Advantages of the method

The advantages of the method described above are:

Easy to calculate.
Visibility.
The ability to classify investments taking into account the value specified by the investor.

In general, using this indicator it is possible to calculate the risk of investments, since there is inverse relationship: if the payback period, the formula of which is indicated above, decreases, the risks of the project also decrease. And vice versa, as the waiting period for the return on investment increases, the risk also increases - investments may become irrevocable.

Disadvantages of the method

If we talk about the disadvantages of the method, then among them are: the inaccuracy of the calculation, due to the fact that the time factor is not taken into account when calculating it.

In fact, the revenue that will be received outside the return period does not in any way affect its period.

In order to correctly calculate the indicator, it is important to understand by investment the costs of formation, reconstruction, and improvement of fixed assets of the enterprise. As a result, their effect cannot occur immediately.

An investor, when investing money in improving any area, must understand the fact that only after some time he will receive a non-negative cash flow of capital. Because of this, it is important to use dynamic methods in calculations that discount flows, bringing the price of money to one point in time.

The need for such complex calculations is due to the fact that the price of money at the start date of investment does not coincide with the value of money at the end of the project.

Discounted calculation method

The payback period, the formula of which is presented below, involves taking into account the time factor. This is a calculation of NPV - net present value. The calculation is carried out according to the formula:

where T is the refund period;

IC - investment in the project;

FV - planned income for the project.

This is taken into account and therefore the planned income is discounted using a discount rate. This rate includes project risks. The main ones include:

inflation risks;
risks of non-receipt of profit.

All of them are determined as percentages and summed up. The discount rate is determined as follows: + all risks for the project.

If the cash flow is uneven

If the proceeds from the project are different every year, the cost recovery, the formula of which is discussed in this article, is determined in several steps.

First, it is necessary to determine the number of periods (and it must be an integer) when the amount of profit on an accrual basis becomes close to the amount of investment.
Then it is necessary to determine the balance: from the amount of investments we subtract the amount of accumulated income from the project.
After this, the amount of the uncovered balance is divided by the amount of cash inflows of the next period of time. The main economic indicator in this case is the discount rate, which is determined in fractions of a unit or as a percentage per year.

conclusions

The payback period, the formula of which was discussed above, shows over what period of time the full return on investment will occur and the moment will come when the project begins to generate income. The investment option with the shortest return period is selected.

For calculations, several methods are used, which have their own characteristics. The simplest one is to divide the amount of costs by the amount of annual revenue that the financed project brings.

Payback period equipment is an economic indicator that must be calculated during analysis and planning economic activity. It characterizes the time during which the money spent on purchasing another means of production will be returned in full through the use of the unit.

First, determine the amount that the company is willing to allocate for the purchase of a new equipment. Include directly the cost of acquisition, as well as costs associated with installation and commissioning. For example, if you plan to acquire an additional conveyor, which will allow you to redistribute the load, then in the “Capital Investments” parameter, calculate the price of the device, the amount of delivery, the cost of installation and startup work. However, if all preparatory activities were carried out staff member company, and therefore the organization managed to avoid additional costs, then there is no need to add anything beyond the purchase costs.

Calculate the amount of gross income received from the use equipment. For example, if a loaf of bread is baked in a new oven per month and sold at a price of 20 rubles per unit of goods, and the cost of raw materials per loaf is 5 rubles, then the gross profit will be equal to 7 rubles (7 = (20 rubles - 5 rubles ) *). In this case, the costs of maintaining the salary fund are not taken into account, but if for maintenance equipment additional staff will be hired, then payments to newly hired employees must be taken into account. Tax deductions should be ignored - in any case, they will depend on the final amount of income. Thus, gross income is the difference between the selling price and the cost of production, in trade - the amount of markups.

Substitute the found indicators into the formula: T = K / VD, where T is the payback period; K – capital investments; VP – gross income. When calculating the payback period, you can take any time interval. If a quarter is selected, then the amount of gross income is also taken based on 3 calendar months.

Instead of the profitability indicator, you can substitute the amount of savings that will become possible after the introduction of an additional unit equipment, because according to folk wisdom, “Saving means earning.”

About the ability to calculate payback
The development of a project, as a rule, ends with the calculation of its payback.
The payback period is the time interval
How to calculate the payback period
Payback is one of the indicators that reflects the efficiency of a company's economic activities.
The essence of the payback period of capital investments
Payback period calculation
To assess the effectiveness of an investment project in financial management, various methods and criteria are used.
Calculation of simple payback period
Calculation of discounted payback period

To think that only economists and businessmen should have the ability to calculate payback is fundamentally wrong. Every family invests money in apartments, houses, cars and bank deposits. All this can increase in price after some time and bring benefits to its owners. Therefore, you can talk about the return on investment with friends, colleagues, and neighbors on the landing. And it’s not surprising if they don’t know the phrase “return on investment,” because not everyone is cut out to be economists and businessmen.

- calculator
- pen
- paper

For domestic use, the calculation of payback is extremely simple and straightforward. To calculate the payback, you need to divide the amount of invested funds by the amount of profit received. The resulting value will indicate the period of time during which the payback will occur.

For example, we bought an apartment on the first floor of a residential building for RUB 3,000,000. We spent another 600,000 rubles on repairs, bureaucratic procedures and landscaping of the surrounding area. After which, after submitting an advertisement, we rented out this premises to a tenant who would pay monthly public utilities and an amount of 40,000 rubles.

Thus, our investments amounted to 3,600,000 rubles. And the monthly profit from the project is 40,000 rubles. To fully recoup the investment, we will need to rent out our premises for (3,600,000 / 40,000) 90 months, or 7.5 years.

One more example. A friend suggests we get into cargo transportation. To do this, you will need a GAZelle car, which you will have to purchase. Let’s assume that the monthly profit from cargo transportation after all costs for repairs and fuel is expected to be about 40,000 rubles. Let's say we buy a used GAZelle for 300,000 rubles.

Thus, the return on investment will occur in (300,000 / 40,000) 7.5 months of work.

In addition, the return on investment can be compared by choosing more profitable opportunities. Let's compare the income from a GAZelle from the previous example with the income from a bank deposit at a rate of 10.5% per annum.

For ease of comparison, let’s take a deposit amount equal to the cost of the GAZelle, 300,000 rubles. Let us assume that, according to the bank's terms, interest is paid at the end of the term. Thus, after 1 year, the amount of our investments will increase by (300,000 * 10.5%) 31 rubles. And we will have 331 rubles in our hands.

For 12 months of work in cargo transportation, we will receive (40,000 * 12) 480,000 rubles. From a mathematical point of view, this means that in our examples it is more profitable to invest money in cargo transportation rather than in a bank.

We hope you will now make even more rational financial decisions.

Internet access
calculator
Notepad and pen
scales (to determine the weight of the cargo)
measuring tape or tape measure (to determine the size of the load)

Determine the distance between delivery points. If transportation is carried out intercity and by car, then this distance must be multiplied by two, since the return journey is also included in the delivery cost.

Find out the cost of transportation per kilometer. The easiest way to find out is to go to the Internet or call a company that will transport the cargo. You can also use various printed publications or ask friends who recently ordered cargo delivery.

Determine the weight of the load. If it exceeds the permissible standards, then the cost will be slightly higher, since the parcel will be transported under different conditions. For example, on another vehicle capable of carrying more weight.

Pay attention to the dimensions. For oversized cargo you will also have to pay extra due to the replacement of transport.

Determine how urgently the package needs to be delivered. If you need to do this as quickly as possible, it is better to use express delivery. Almost all companies currently have the opportunity to do it. But the delivery price will increase significantly.

Determine the need for additional services, the presence of which will increase the payment. The range of additional services provided varies significantly among different companies. This could be packaging, cargo security, insurance, paperwork by the company itself. This situation often arises when transporting bulky and heavy cargo.

Calculate the total shipping cost. The distance is multiplied by the cost of one kilometer of transportation, then multiplied by the weight of the parcel and an additional cost is added for excess weight, oversized cargo or additional services (if any).

Video on the topic

If for some reason the project is considered unpromising, its economic indicators change (for example, costs for materials decrease). How can you calculate the payback of a project and what is required for this?

calculator, pen, notepad, economic indicators of project implementation

Calculate the payback period of the project, that is, the time interval after which the project begins to make a profit. T = K/P, where

T – payback period, K – annual capital investments, P – project profit. Let’s say that in the first year of the project, the enterprise purchased new equipment in the amount of 15 million rubles. In the second year of the project, the company carried out major renovation workshops to improve the work of the department. 2 million rubles were spent on repairs. In the first year, the profit from the project amounted to 5 million rubles, and in the second - 17 million rubles. If cash flows are not the same throughout the year, quarter or month, it is worth calculating the payback period for each of the above time intervals. In the first and second years it will be respectively:

T1 = 15/5 = 3 years

T2 = 2/17 = 0.11 year or in about a month the project will pay off with a similar amount of profit.

Calculate a simple rate of return or an indicator that indicates what part of the investment is repaid through profit. PNP = PE / IZ, where

PNP – simple rate of return, PP – net profit, IZ – investment costs.

According to our example, the simple rate of return in the first and second year will be, respectively:

PNP1 = 5/15 = 0.33 million rubles,

PNP2 = 17/2 = 8.5 million rubles. In other words, in the second year of project implementation, it can be argued that the investments have paid for themselves, the project is considered promising.

Compare the results obtained according to the simple rate of return and payback period. In our example, in the second year of project implementation, investments begin to make a profit. In about two years and one month, the project will fully pay for itself, which means that it can be argued that the investment in the project was not in vain.

Often these indicators are not enough to calculate the payback of complex projects that are implemented in stages and in different areas (for example, construction and sales of goods). In this case, the indicators are calculated for each specific type of activity and taking into account changes in cash receipts in a separate reporting period.

The payback period is the time interval during which the investments made in the project will pay for themselves in full. Typically, this time interval is measured in months or years. But how to find the payback period and what might be required for this?

table indicating time (e.g. year) and corresponding capital investment in the project, calculator, notepad and pen

Make a table of investments (investments) and planned income from the project for each year. For example, the company plans to implement Project X, the cost of which is estimated at 50 million rubles. In the first year of implementation, the project required additional investments in the amount of 10 million rubles. In the second, third, fourth and fifth years it is planned that the project will begin to generate profits in the amount of 5, 20, 30 and 40 million rubles, respectively. Then the final table will look like this:

Time period and Investments and profits

0 - 50 million rubles

1 - 10 million rubles

2 + 5 million rubles

3 + 20 million rubles

4 + 30 million rubles

5 + 40 million rubles

Determine the accumulated discounted flow, that is, the amount of investment that changes according to planned income. Let’s say that at an enterprise project “X” the return on the project or the discount rate is 10%. Calculate the accumulated discounted flow up to the first positive value using the formula:

NDP = B1 + B2/(1 + SD) + B3/(1 + SD) + B4/(1 + SD) + B5/(1 + SD), where

NDP – accumulated discounted flow, B1-5 – investments for a certain period of time, SD – discount rate.

NDP1 = - 50 – 10 / (1+0.1) = - 59.1 million rubles.

In a similar way, we calculate NDP2,3,4 and so on until we get a zero or positive value.

NDP2 = - 54.9 million rubles

NDP3 = - 36.7 million rubles

NDP4 = - 9.4 million rubles

NDP5 = 26.9 million rubles

Thus, the investments made in the project will pay off in full only in the fifth year of the project’s implementation.

Calculate the exact payback period of the project using the formula:

T = CL + (NS/PN),

Where T is the payback period, CL is the number of years preceding the payback, NS is the unrecovered cost of the project at the beginning of the payback year, that is, for the 5th year (the last negative amount of the NDP), PN is the cash inflow in the first year of payback (40 million rubles).

In our example, T = 4 + (9.4 / 40) = 4.2 years.

In other words, the project will pay for itself in 4 years, 2 months and 12 days.

note

The payback period allows you to determine, even at the development stage, in which cases (given known costs and the amount of profit) the project will be profitable.

The speed of return on investment is a key criterion for the attractiveness of an investment project. The payback period allows the investor to compare different variants business and choose the most suitable one that matches his financial capabilities.

Remember that the payback period of a project is the period of time from the initial stage (implementation of the project) until the moment when it is fully paid off. The payback moment is the time after which the financial flow from the project acquires positive value and remains so.

The method of calculating the payback period of an investment is to determine the period it will take to recoup the initial cost of the investment. The payback period is an indicator of whether or not the initial investment will be recouped within life cycle project.

There are two ways to calculate the payback period. If the cash receipts from the project are the same for all years, then the payback period can be calculated as follows:

PP = I/CF, where:

РР – project payback period,

I – initial volume of investment in the development of the project,

CF is the average annual cost of cash receipts from the project.

If the cash flow is not the same over the years, then the payback period is calculated in several stages. First, find an integer number of periods over which the cumulative total of the project's revenues will be closest to, but not greater than, the original investment. Then calculate the uncovered balance - the difference between the amount of investment and the amount of cash received. Then divide the uncovered balance by the amount of cash receipts for the next period.

Please note that these methods have some disadvantages. They ignore the difference in the value of money over time and the existence of cash flows after the end of the payback period. In this regard, the discounted payback period is calculated, which is understood as the length of the period of time from the initial moment to the moment of payback, taking into account discounting.

Remember that discounting is the determination of the present value of cash flows that we will receive in the future. In other words, it is the transfer of the future value of money to the present. In this case, the discount rate is determined based on the percentage on risk-free investments based on the percentage on borrowed capital, according to expert estimates, etc.

The discounted payback period is the most adequate criterion for assessing the attractiveness of an investment project, since it allows one to incorporate into the project some risks, such as a decrease in income, an increase in costs, the emergence of alternative, most profitable areas of investment, thereby reducing its nominal efficiency.

One of important tasks at the design stage of ventilation, air conditioning and heating of a building - calculation of the thermal load. Design power is the amount of energy that needs to be delivered to (or removed from) a room to maintain the required temperature and humidity.

- calculator;
- thermometers;
- initial data.

When calculating power, it should be taken into account that there are two types of thermal load: sensible cooling load (dry or sensible heat) and latent cooling load (latent or wet heat). The magnitude of sensible heat is found using the “dry” thermometer, and latent heat - using the “wet” thermometer. These two quantities are taken into account when calculating the thermal load.

The amount of dry heat is influenced by the following factors: the presence of windows and doors in the room, heating, the nature of lighting, the thickness of the walls, the presence of people in the building, air exchange through cracks and cracks, etc. Sources of damp heat: people, equipment installed in the room, and air flow coming from outside through cracks in the wall.

Knowing the factors influencing indoor air temperature and humidity, analyze them. Thus, the entry of solar energy through a window depends on the time of day and year, external shading devices, and also on where the window faces. In addition, the influx of solar energy enters through the roof and walls of the building, so the structural features of the building and the material used for its construction significantly affect the rate of transfer of thermal energy.

The hourly heat input due to thermal conductivity can be calculated using the formula: qi=U*A*(te-trc), where qi is the energy input due to surface thermal conductivity, U is the total surface thermal conductivity coefficient, A is the surface area, trc is the design temperature indoor air, and te is the temperature of the external surface at a certain hour.

To calculate the heat flow entering through the walls or roof, the following formula is used: qQ = c0qiQ + c1qiQ-1 + c2qiQ-2 + c3qiQ-3 +…+ c23qiQ-23, in which qQ is the hourly heat input, qiQ is the amount of heat, received during the last hour, Q-n – heat input n hours ago, c0, c1, c2, etc. - time of heat arrival.

Calculating the thermal load allows you to identify the individual components that have the greatest impact on the total load and, if necessary, adjust the design power.

note

Be careful when making calculations! Mistakes are unacceptable!

The design outside air temperature is defined as average temperature coldest five-day period.

It characterizes how competently and successfully capital investments are used.

In economic analysis there are different approaches to determine the payback period. This indicator is used as part of a comparative analysis when determining the most profitable investment option. It is worth noting that it is used only in complex analysis; taking the payback period as the main efficiency parameter is not entirely correct. Determining the payback period as a priority is only possible if the company is focused on a quick return on investment.

On the other hand, other things being equal, preference is given to those projects that have shortest term payback.

When implementing a project with borrowed funds, it is important that the payback period is shorter than the period of using external borrowings.

The indicator is a priority if the main thing for an investor is the fastest possible return on investment, for example, choosing ways of financial recovery of bankrupt enterprises.

The payback period refers to the period during which the capital expenditures. This is achieved by obtaining additional income(for example, when introducing more productive equipment) or savings (for example, when introducing energy-efficient production lines). If we're talking about about the country, then compensation occurs due to the increase in national income.

In practice, the payback period is the time period during which the company's profit, secured by capital investments, is equal to the amount of investment. It can vary - month, year, etc. The main thing is that the payback period does not exceed standard values. They differ depending on the specific project and industry focus. For example, for the modernization of equipment at an enterprise there is one standard period, but for the construction of a highway it is different.

The calculation of the payback period should be made taking into account the time lag between capital investments and the effect of them, as well as changes in prices and other factors (inflationary processes, rising costs of energy resources, etc.). According to this approach, the payback period is the time period after which, at the discount rate under consideration, the positive cash flow (discounted income) and negative cash flow (discounted investment) will equalize.

In a simplified form, the payback period is calculated as the ratio of capital investments to the profit from them. However, this approach does not take into account the time assessment of investment costs. This leads to an incorrect, underestimated payback period.

It is more correct to analyze the investment attractiveness of projects taking into account inflationary processes, alternative investment options, and the need to service borrowed capital.

Therefore, the payback period is equal to the sum of the number of years that preceded the payback year, as well as the ratio of the unrecovered cost at the beginning of the payback year to the cash inflow during the payback year. The calculation algorithm is as follows:

Calculation of discounted cash flow based on the discount rate;

Calculation of accumulated discounted cash flow as the sum of costs and income for the project - it is calculated to the first positive value.

All that remains is to substitute the indicated values into the formula.

The easiest way to assess the attractiveness of a project is to calculate the payback period.

The simple payback period method is one of the easiest ways to evaluate a project. To calculate this indicator, it is enough to know the net cash flow for the project. Taking this indicator into account, the balance of accumulated cash flow is calculated. When choosing between several investment projects, the project with the shortest payback period is accepted for implementation.

Let's assume that the initial investment for the project amounted to 180 million rubles. The project will be implemented over 5 years and will annually generate cash flows:

1 year: 40 million rubles

Year 2: 30 million rubles

3rd year: 50 million rubles

Year 4: 70 million rubles

Year 5: 90 million rubles

Using the presented data, it is necessary to create an analytical table. The payback period for a project is calculated by adding up the annual cash flows until the total cash inflows equal the initial investment costs.

The table shows that the balance of the accumulated cash flow becomes positive in the period between the 3rd and 4th year of the investment project. The following formula will help you calculate the exact payback period:

In this example, the payback period will be: 3 years 10 months

The main disadvantage of this method is that the calculation does not apply the discounting procedure, and therefore does not take into account the decrease in the value of money over time.

The discounted payback period is the period over which discounted cash flows cover the initial costs associated with the investment project. The discounted payback period is always less than simple, since over time the value of funds always decreases. The discounting procedure allows you to take into account the cost of capital used in your calculations.

Let's assume that the initial investment for the project amounted to 150 million rubles. The discount rate is 15%. The project will be implemented over 3 years and will annually generate cash flows:

1 year: 30 million rubles

Year 2: 120 million rubles

3rd year: 15 million rubles

Using the presented data, it is also necessary to create an analytical table. At the first stage, discounted cash flow is calculated in each period. The discounted payback period for a project is calculated by summing the annual discounted cash flows until the amount of cash inflows equals the value of the initial investment costs.

The table shows that the balance of the accumulated discounted payback period does not take a positive value, therefore, within the framework of the project, payback will not be achieved.

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