Changing of the climate- fluctuations in the climate of the Earth as a whole or its individual regions over time, expressed in statistically significant deviations of weather parameters from long-term values ​​over a period of time from decades to millions of years. Changes in both average weather parameters and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events are taken into account. The science of paleoclimatology studies climate change. Climate change is caused by dynamic processes on Earth, external influences such as fluctuations in solar radiation intensity, and, more recently, human activities. Changes in the modern climate (toward warming) are called global warming.

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✪ Theory of anthropogenic climate change – Nikolay Dronin

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Manifestations of climate change

Weather is the state of the lower layers of the atmosphere at a given time, in a given place. Weather is a chaotic nonlinear dynamic system. Climate is the average state of weather and is predictable. Climate includes things like average temperature, rainfall, number of sunny days, and other variables that can be measured at a particular location. However, processes also occur on Earth that can affect the climate.

Glaciations

• changes in size, relief and relative position of continents and oceans,
• change in the luminosity of the Sun,
• changes in the parameters of the Earth's orbit and axis,
• changes in the transparency and composition of the atmosphere, including changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases (CO 2 and CH 4),
• change in the reflectivity of the Earth's surface (albedo),
• change in the amount of heat available in the depths of the ocean, [ ]

Non-anthropogenic factors and their impact on climate change

Plate tectonics

Over long periods of time, tectonic movements of plates move continents, form oceans, create and destroy mountain ranges, that is, create the surface on which climate exists. Recent research shows that tectonic movements exacerbated the conditions of the last ice age: about 3 million years ago, the North and South American plates collided, forming the Isthmus of Panama and closing the path for direct mixing of the waters of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

Solar radiation

Changes in solar activity are also observed over shorter time periods: the 11-year solar cycle and longer secular and millennial modulations. However, the 11-year cycle of sunspot occurrence and disappearance is not explicitly tracked in climatological data. Changes in solar activity are considered an important factor in the onset of the Little Ice Age, as well as some of the warming events observed between 1900 and 1950. The cyclical nature of solar activity is not yet fully understood; it is different from the slow changes that accompany the development and aging of the Sun.

Milankovitch cycles

Over the course of its history, planet Earth regularly changes the eccentricity of its orbit, as well as the direction and angle of inclination of its axis, which leads to a redistribution of solar radiation on the Earth's surface. These changes are usually called “Milankovitch cycles”; they are predictable with high accuracy. There are 4 Milankovitch cycles:

1. Precession- rotation of the earth's axis under the influence of the gravity of the Moon, as well as (to a lesser extent) the Sun. As Newton found out in his Principia, the oblateness of the Earth at the poles leads to the fact that the attraction of external bodies rotates the earth's axis, which describes a cone with a period (according to modern data) of approximately 25,776 years, as a result of which the seasonal amplitude of the intensity of the solar flux changes by the northern and southern hemispheres of the Earth;
2. Nutation- long-period (so-called secular) fluctuations in the angle of inclination of the earth’s axis to the plane of its orbit with a period of about 41,000 years;
3. Long-period fluctuations in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit with a period of about 93,000 years;
4. The movement of the perihelion of the Earth’s orbit and the ascending node of the orbit with a period of 10 and 26 thousand years, respectively.

Since the described effects are periodic with a non-multiple period, fairly long epochs regularly arise when they have a cumulative effect, reinforcing each other. They are considered the main reasons for the alternation of glacial and interglacial cycles of the last ice age, including explaining the Holocene Climatic Optimum. The precession of the Earth's orbit also results in smaller changes, such as the periodic increase and decrease in the area of ​​the Sahara Desert.

Volcanism

One strong volcanic eruption can affect the climate, causing a cold snap lasting several years. For example, the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 significantly affected the climate. The giant eruptions that form the largest igneous provinces occur only a few times every hundred million years, but they influence the climate for millions of years and cause species extinctions. It was initially assumed that the cause of the cooling was volcanic dust released into the atmosphere, since it prevented solar radiation from reaching the Earth's surface. However, measurements show that most of the dust settles on the Earth's surface within six months.

Volcanoes are also part of the geochemical carbon cycle. Over many geological periods, carbon dioxide has been released from the Earth's interior into the atmosphere, thereby neutralizing the amount of CO 2 removed from the atmosphere and bound by sedimentary rocks and other geological CO 2 sinks. However, this contribution is not comparable in magnitude to anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide, which, according to US Geological Survey estimates, is 130 times greater than the amount of CO 2 emitted by volcanoes.

Anthropogenic impact on climate change

Anthropogenic factors include human activities that change the environment and influence the climate. In some cases the cause-and-effect relationship is direct and unambiguous, such as the effect of irrigation on temperature and humidity, in other cases the relationship is less obvious. Various hypotheses of human influence on climate have been discussed over the years. At the end of the 19th century in the western part of the USA and Australia, for example, the theory “rain follows the plow” was popular.

The main problems today are: the increasing concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere due to fuel combustion, aerosols in the atmosphere that affect its cooling, and the cement industry. Other factors such as land use, ozone depletion, livestock farming and deforestation also influence the climate.

Interaction of factors

The influence of all factors, both natural and anthropogenic, on the climate is expressed by a single value - radiative heating of the atmosphere in W/m2. [ ] Volcanic eruptions, glaciations, continental drift and the Earth's pole shift are powerful natural processes that influence the Earth's climate. On a scale of several years, volcanoes can play a major role. As a result of the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, so much ash was thrown to a height of 35 km that the average level of solar radiation decreased by 2.5 W/m2. However, these changes are not long-term; the particles settle down relatively quickly. On a millennium scale, the climate-determining process is likely to be the slow movement from one ice age to the next.

On a scale of several centuries for 2005 compared to 1750, there is a combination of multidirectional factors, each of which is significantly weaker than the result of an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, estimated as a warming of 2.4-3.0 W/m 2. Human influence is less than 1% of the total radiation balance, and the anthropogenic enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect is approximately 2%, from 33 to 33.7 degrees C. Thus, the average air temperature at the Earth's surface has increased since the pre-industrial era (since about 1750) by 0.7 °C

Cyclicity of climate change

35-45 year climate change cycles

The alternation of cool-humid and warm-dry periods in the interval of 35-45 years was put forward in late XIX V. Russian scientists E. A. Brikner and A. I. Voeikov. Subsequently, these scientific principles were significantly developed by A.V. Shnitnikov in the form of a coherent theory about intra- and multi-century climate variability and the general moisture content of the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. The system of evidence is based on facts about the nature of changes in mountain glaciation in Eurasia and North America, the filling levels of inland water bodies, including the Caspian Sea, the level of the World Ocean, the variability of ice conditions in the Arctic, and historical information about the climate. .

One of the worst droughts in the Middle East. Photo: NASA

97% of the world’s climatologists admit that the main cause of global warming observed since the mid-20th century is humans. “Climate of Russia” has collected the ten hottest facts about climate change, which literally make you feel stuffy.

1. Global warming and climate change are not the same thing

These are two different but related concepts. Global warming is a manifestation of climate change, so the former is a symptom and the latter is a diagnosis.

When we talk about warming, we mean a constant increase in the average temperature on Earth. Scientifically, this is called “anthropogenic warming.” It is caused by human activity, as a result of which gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxides, chlorofluorocarbons, etc.) accumulate in the atmosphere, enhancing the greenhouse effect.

Climate change is a change in weather conditions over a long period of time, tens or hundreds of years. It manifests itself as a temperature deviation from the seasonal or monthly norm and is accompanied by dangerous natural phenomena, among them - floods, droughts, hurricanes, heavy snowfalls, heavy rains. At the same time, the number of anomalous phenomena, many of which turn into terrible disasters, is growing every year. However, even small climate changes have a negative impact on flora and fauna, the possibilities of agriculture and livestock breeding, and the usual way of life.

1. 2016 promises to be the hottest year yet

So far, the absolute record belongs to 2015. But scientists have no doubt that 2016 will be able to beat it. It is not difficult to predict this, because, according to NASA, temperatures have been rising for 35 years: each of the last 15 years has been the hottest in the history of meteorological observations.

Abnormal heat and drought have already become a serious problem for residents of different parts of the planet. Thus, in 2013, one of the most destructive typhoons in human history, Yolanda, hit the Philippines. Last year, California experienced its worst drought in 500 years. And in the future, the number of natural disasters may increase significantly.

1. Permafrost is no longer permanent

60% of Russia's territory is covered with permafrost. The rapid melting of the ice layer under the soil is becoming not only an environmental, but also an economic and social problem. The fact is that the entire infrastructure in northern Russia is built on icy soil (permafrost). In Western Siberia alone, several thousand accidents occur a year due to deformation of the earth's surface.

And some areas, for example, in the Yakutia region, are simply periodically flooded. Since 2010, floods have occurred here every year.

With melting permafrost There is another threat involved. Permafrost contains huge amounts of methane. Methane traps heat in the atmosphere even more than CO 2, and is now being released rapidly.

An atoll in the Pacific Ocean that could repeat the fate of Atlantis. Photo: un.org

1. Sea levels could rise by almost a meter

With the melting of permafrost and glaciers, more and more water is formed in the World Ocean. In addition, it becomes warmer and gains more volume - so-called thermal expansion occurs. During the 20th century, the water level rose by 17 centimeters. If everything continues at the same pace as now, then by the end of the 21st century we can expect an increase to 1.3 meters, writes the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the journal of the US National Academy of Sciences.

What does it mean? According to the UN environmental program, half the world's population lives within 60 kilometers of the coast, including three-quarters of the largest cities. These populated areas will be exposed to the elements - typhoons, storm surges, erosion. In the worst case, they are at risk of flooding. Scientists predict such a fate for many cities, for example San Francisco, Venice, Bangkok, and some island states - such as the Maldives, Vanuatu, Tuvalu - may even disappear under the water in this century.

Typhoon: view from space. Photo: NASA

1. Climate refugees - a harsh reality

There are still climate refugees today. But calculations by the UN refugee agency suggest that by 2050 their numbers will increase sharply. 200 million people will be forced to seek new housing due to the effects of climate change (eg sea level rise). Unfortunately, the countries most vulnerable to climate threats are also the poorest in the world. Most of them are Asian and African states, including Afghanistan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Nepal, Kenya, Ethiopia, etc. An increase in the number of refugees by 20 times compared to today will exacerbate many far from environmental issues.

1. The oceans are acidifying

“Excess” greenhouse gases are not only in the atmosphere. From there, carbon dioxide enters the ocean. There is already so much carbon dioxide in the ocean that scientists are talking about its “acidification.” Last time this happened 300 million years ago - in those distant times it killed up to 96% of all species marine flora and fauna.

How could this happen? Organisms whose shells are formed from calcium carbonate cannot withstand acidification. This, for example, includes most mollusks - from snails to chitons. The problem is that many of them form the basis of food chains in the oceans. The consequences of their disappearance are not difficult to predict. Carbon dioxide also disrupts the development of the skeletons of coral reefs, which are home to almost a quarter of all sea inhabitants.

1. About 1 million species could become extinct

Changes in temperature, habitat, ecosystems and food chains leave more than one sixth of the plant and animal world no chance to survive. Unfortunately, poaching only increases these numbers. Scientists predict that by 2050, over a million species of animals and plants may disappear.

The devastating effects of Typhoon Guyana in the Philippines, 2009. Photo: Claudio Accheri

1. Climate warming cannot be stopped, it can only be slowed down

Even if we completely stopped carbon dioxide emissions tomorrow, it would make little difference. Climatologists agree that the mechanism of climate change has been launched hundreds of years into the future. In the event of a sharp reduction in emissions, the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere will remain for a long time. This means that the ocean will continue to absorb carbon dioxide (see fact 6), and the temperature on the planet will continue to rise (see fact 2).

1. You can die due to climate change

The World Health Organization predicts an increase in deaths of 250 thousand people between 2030 and 2050. The main reasons are the consequences of climate change. Thus, not all older people will survive increased heat waves, and children from poor regions will survive malnutrition and diarrhea. Malaria will be a common problem for everyone, outbreaks of which will occur due to the expansion of the habitat of mosquito vectors.

However, WHO takes into account only a number of possible health consequences. That's why real numbers deaths could be much higher.

Infrared map of the world by 2100. Graphics: NASA

1. 97% of climate scientists confirm the anthropogenic nature of global warming

In 2013, out of almost 11 thousand scientific papers, only two denied the human influence on the rise in average global temperature. Today, 97% of climate scientists accept the anthropogenic contribution to global warming. At the same time, about half of the population of Russia and the United States do not believe that the climate is changing, and that it is caused by humans. Which affects not only their daily habits, but also the politics of entire countries.

The ecological and biological systems of our planet are directly related to the characteristics of its climatic zones. Over time, in certain regions and natural areas, as well as throughout the climate as a whole, certain fluctuations or deviations from statistically recorded weather parameters occur. These include average temperatures, the number of sunny days, precipitation and other equally important variables.

Thanks to many years of documented observations by scientists, such a phenomenon as global climate change was noted. This is one of the most frightening natural processes that interests the vast majority of the world's inhabitants these days.

Why does the weather change?

Changing weather parameters throughout the planet is a non-stop process that has been going on for millions of years. Climatic conditions have never been constant. For example, to the vivid manifestations of such natural changes include well-known periods of glaciation.

Paleoclimatology has been studying climatic conditions and their characteristics from ancient times to the present day. Scientists conducting research in this scientific field have noted that the weather is influenced by several important factors. The climate, in general, changes due to the following dynamic processes:

• changes in the earth's orbit (the parameters of the orbit and the earth's axis change);
• intensity of solar radiation and solar luminosity;
• processes occurring in the oceans and glaciers (these include the melting of ice at the poles);
• processes caused by human activity (for example, an increase in the content of gases in atmospheric layers causing the greenhouse effect);
• natural volcanic activity (the transparency of air masses and their chemical composition changes significantly when volcanoes awaken);
• tectonic shift of plates and continents on which the climate is formed.

The most destructive was the impact of human production and economic activity on the climate. And the combination of all the above factors, including natural processes, leads to warming on a global scale (the so-called radiation warming of the atmosphere), which does not have the most favorable effect on most of the earth’s ecological systems and causes understandable concern for the entire scientific world.

At the same time, one scientific theory, capable of shedding light on all the causes of changes in the earth's climate, still does not exist.

The cyclical nature of the changes taking place

Natural fluctuations in climate conditions on the planet are cyclical. This feature was noted by A.I. Voeikov and E.A. Brickner back in the 19th century. Cool and fairly humid periods on earth regularly alternate with drier and warmer ones.

Approximately every 30-45 years, climate conditions change noticeably. The process of warming or cooling can occur either in one century or affect several centuries (be centuries old). As a result, the areas of permafrost change, the boundaries of vegetation shift both along meridians and altitude in the mountains, and the ranges of animals shift.

Anthropogenic influence on climate is constantly increasing and is associated, first of all, with the social evolution of mankind. Energy development, industrial production, agriculture irreversibly changes the weather conditions on our planet:

• Carbon dioxide and other industrial gases entering the atmosphere cause the greenhouse effect.
• Thermal energy generated as a result of industrial and economic activities also penetrates the air masses and heats them.
• The contents of aerosol cans, detergent solvents and gases used in refrigeration units destroy the ozone layer. As a result, so-called atmospheric holes appear at altitudes of up to 35 kilometers, allowing ultraviolet light to pass freely through the atmosphere.

Consequences of global changes

The “curtain” formed by the concentration of gases (hazardous substances include methane, nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbon) does not allow the earth’s surface to cool. It seems to block infrared radiation in the lower layer of air, causing it to warm.

The consequences of warming predicted in the near future are extremely serious. This:

• An unnatural mixing of previously established ecological systems, accompanied by the migration of wild animals to the northern territories of the continents.
• A change in the usual seasonality of the development of agricultural plants and, as a consequence, a decrease in the productivity of land over large areas.
• Declining water quality and quantity of water resources in many countries around the world.
• Changes in the average amount of precipitation (for example, there will be more in the northern regions of Europe).
• An increase in water salinity at the mouths of some rivers, caused by an increase in the overall level of the World Ocean due to melting ice.
• Shift of ocean currents. Already today the Gulf Stream is gradually sinking to the bottom. Further cooling of this current will lead to a sharp deterioration in the climate in Europe.
• An increase in swamp areas and flooding of fertile lowlands, which threatens the potential loss of former human habitation areas.
• Oxidation of ocean waters. Nowadays, carbon dioxide saturation is about 30% - these are the consequences of human industrial activity.
• Active melting of polar and arctic ice. Over the past hundred years, the level of the World Ocean has regularly risen by an average of 1.7 millimeters per year. And since 1993, this increase in ocean waters has amounted to 3.5 millimeters annually.
• Threat of famine due to food shortages caused by population growth and climate-induced loss of agricultural land around the world.

The combination of all these unfavorable factors will have a catastrophic impact on human society and farming. The global economy will suffer, causing social instability in many regions.

For example, the increasing frequency of dry spells will reduce agricultural efficiency and also increase the likelihood of famine in African and Asian countries. The problem of water supply in hot tropical areas will provoke a dangerous spread of infectious diseases. In addition, warming trends across the planet will lead to problems with natural disasters - weather conditions will become more unpredictable and changeable.

According to the expert opinion of members of the Intergovernmental Panel (IPCC), adverse changes in climate conditions are observed on all continents and oceans. The experts outlined their concerns in a report dated March 31, 2014. Many ecological systems are already affected, posing a threat to human health and the global economy.

Ways to solve the problem

In recent decades, meteorological and environmental monitoring has been strengthened, which will make it possible to make a more accurate forecast of climate deviations in the near future and avoid environmental problems.

According to the worst assumptions of scientists, the temperature on the planet could rise by another 11 degrees, and then the changes will become irreversible. To prevent possible climate problems, a United Nations convention was created more than 20 years ago, ratified by 186 countries around the world. This agreement provides all the main measures to combat global warming, as well as ways to control the weather and its changes.

Many developed countries that recognized this document as relevant have created common programs to combat the emission of climate-damaging greenhouse gases into the air. Important projects also include a systematic increase in the area of ​​green spaces around the world. And states with economies in transition undertake obligations to reduce the volume of harmful gases entering the atmosphere as a result of industrial activities of enterprises (this is evidenced by the so-called Kyoto Protocol, signed in 1997).

In Russia, by 2020, it is planned to reduce the emissions of hazardous gases that cause the greenhouse effect to 25% compared to 1990 due to their absorption by special storage tanks and absorbers. It is also planned to introduce technologies for energy conservation and the use of alternative sources that are environmentally safe. Solar and wind energy have proven themselves to be excellent, used to generate electricity and heat residential and industrial premises.

Currently, disagreements between states with different economic levels of development do not allow the adoption of a single legal document indicating the exact volumes of reduction of harmful gas emissions for each country party to the treaty. Therefore, climate doctrine is developed by states individually, taking into account their financial capabilities and interests.

Unfortunately, anthropogenic influence on climate is often viewed in political or even commercial terms. And instead of fulfilling their obligations in practice, the governments of individual states are engaged only in commercial trade in various quotas. And important international documents serve as leverage in trade wars and as a way to put pressure on the economy of a particular country. There is an urgent need to change the policy of consumer attitudes towards natural resources. And all orders of the modern political elite should be aimed, among other things, at a comprehensive solution to environmental problems.

Climate change is a reality. The average annual temperature on the planet increased by 0.8 degrees Celsius, and the level of the world's oceans rose by one meter. The catastrophic consequences of global warming are already visible today. The first extinct species of animals, the disappearance of island waters, the increase in floods and droughts around the world - the Climate of Russia portal presents: 10 real consequences of climate change.

Fact No. 1. Death of rare animals

Just a couple of years ago, scientists were only hypothesizing about which representatives of flora and fauna would disappear from the face of the Earth as a result of climate change. Today, temperature fluctuations are reshaping the composition of flora and fauna.

The first victim of global warming was the mosaic-tailed reef rat. The animal lived in Australia, in the Torres Strait, on the Bramble Cay coral reef measuring 340 by 150 meters. Scientists agree that the reason for the extinction of this animal is rising sea levels.

The mosaic-tailed rat is the first animal species to become extinct due to climate change. Photo: bbc.com

Two years ago, zoologists set traps, but never caught a single mosaic-tailed rat. Due to the fact that the reef was repeatedly flooded, the animals lost up to 94 percent of their range, and the island's vegetation area decreased from 2.2 to 0.065 hectares. “This case is the first documented extinction of mammals due to anthropogenic climate change,” the scientists say.

Fact No. 2. More than a third of Great Barrier Reef corals are dying

The photo on the left shows healthy corals of the Great Barrier Reef. After death, corals lose their color and become white, as in the photo on the right. Photo: uq.edu.au

As a result of global warming, the water temperature in the Coral Sea has increased. This destroyed 35 percent of the corals in the northern and central parts Great Barrier Reef, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The water has warmed, which has led to “bleaching” and death of sensitive organisms, experts at James Cook University concluded. This is the name of the process in which corals weaken and lose the colorful algae covering them - a source of oxygen and nutrients.

Scientists estimate that it will take at least ten years to restore the algae layer. It will take even more time for new corals to grow on the Great Barrier Reef to replace their dead relatives.

Fact No. 3. Temperature anomalies in the Arctic

A starved polar bear in the Arctic. Melting ice threatens the lives of northern animals: seals, polar bears, walruses and others. Photo: Kerstin Langenberger Photography

This year, temperature records on the planet were set repeatedly. Thus, according to the Hydrometeorological Center, April 2016 became the warmest in the entire history of weather observations in the Northern Hemisphere. For exactly one year, since May 2015, the absolute maximum monthly average air temperature has been recorded here. The most serious anomalies were recorded in the Arctic: in the Kara and Barents Seas, on Novaya Zemlya and Yamal - up to +8ºС and above. In western Greenland and Alaska - up to +6ºС.

Between 1980 and 2012, the area of ​​Arctic ice decreased by more than 2 times. Photo: climatechangenews.com

Fact No. 4. Nine trillion tons of melted ice in Greenland

Today, glaciers are disappearing literally before our eyes. You can see this thanks to the project of American photographer James Balogh Extreme Ice Survey. In 2007, he installed cameras next to the glaciers and, together with his assistants, began observing them. Last December, project participants published the result of an eight-year investigation: an edited video in a few seconds demonstrates the catastrophic rate of melting of the Mendenhall Glacier in Alaska. Over the course of eight years, the glacier retreated more than half a kilometer.

Large-scale reduction of the Greenland ice sheet from 1979 to 2007. Photo: occupy.com

Scientists are sounding the alarm: glaciers around the world are melting at an alarming rate. For example, over the past 100 years, Greenland has lost over nine trillion tons of ice. NASA estimates that the island's ice sheet is losing about 287 billion tons each year. Between August 13 and August 19, 2015, a piece with an area of ​​12.5 square kilometers broke off from the Jakobshavn glacier in Greenland. According to experts, this volume is enough to cover the entire Manhattan with a layer of ice almost 300 meters thick.

The area of ​​glaciers is decreasing all over the world. The photo shows the melted Uppsala glacier in Argentina. Melting glaciers are the main cause of rising sea levels. Photo: bartholomewmaps.com

Fact No. 5. Part of the Solomon Islands went under water

Hundreds of thousands of people are forced to leave their homes - many Pacific islands have gone under water due to rising sea levels. Photo: abc.net.au

Five small areas of land included in the Solomon Islands archipelago have disappeared due to rising sea levels and erosion, Australian researchers have concluded. This is the first scientific evidence that climate change is affecting coastlines in the Pacific Ocean.

a) Changes in the coastline of Sogomou Island (Solomon Islands) between 1947 and 2014
b) View of the eastern part of Sogomou Island (2013)
c) Changes in the coastline of Calais Island between 1947 and 2014. In 2014, the island was completely submerged.
Photo: iopscience.iop.org

The Solomon Islands are several hundred pieces of land. Their population is almost 640 thousand people. Over the course of two decades, the sea level in this archipelago has risen by up to 10 millimeters per year. The missing islands, covering an area of ​​one to five hectares, were not inhabited - unlike six other reefs that were partially hidden under water. On these islands there were villages that were abandoned by people. So, Nuatambu served as a home for 25 families. Since 2011, they have lost half the island's area.

Fact No. 6. Four-year drought in California

Dry Lake Oroville in California. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Staff/Getty Images

Dry Lake Oroville in California. Photo: Forbes.com

Global warming is not to blame for California's record drought, according to researchers at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. But temperature fluctuations increased the intensity of the dangerous weather phenomenon by 15-20%. If temperatures on Earth continue to rise, drought will create a critical situation in the region. Lack of rain provokes forest fires that destroy all life in their path. In recent years, California's forests have lost millions of trees due to drought and bark beetle infestations caused by a warming climate. Over four years, about 58 million trees in California were missing nearly a third of the water they needed in the forest canopy.

Fact No. 7. Natural disasters

Severe flood in Paris, 2016. The level of the Seine River rose 6.5 meters above normal. Thousands of people were evacuated, dozens were injured, and major city attractions were closed. Photo: bloomberg.com

At the end of May, Western Europe was hit by heavy rains and caused floods, which became a real disaster for Germany and France. In Paris, the water level of the Seine has reached its highest level in 30 years. After four days of continuous rain, the water level in the river within the borders of Paris rose 4.15 meters above normal. Navigation on the Seine was stopped, and many Parisian metro stations ceased operation. Due to the risk of flooding, the world famous Louvre and Orsay museums were closed. In total, more than five thousand people were evacuated in France. “Heavy rainfall in Paris, uncharacteristically for June, is a reminder of the need to take urgent action to curb climate change,” the country’s president said Francois Hollande.

Global warming has played a huge role in these natural disasters in France, confirm climatologists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) project. The main thesis of their work is that over the past 50 years, climate change has almost doubled the likelihood of multi-day rainfall in the homeland of Flaubert and Joan of Arc.

More boreal forests are disappearing in the Northern Hemisphere's wildfires. Photo: BLM Alaska Fire Service

In 2015, according to the Ministry of Natural Resources, 232 natural fires occurred in Russia in the territories of 31 nature reserves and 19 national parks. In total, more than 50 thousand hectares of forest burned. The most damage was caused in the Siberian Federal District, where 129 fires were recorded in four national parks and eleven state reserves.

The number of natural disasters in the world is increasing every year. Chart according to the international insurance company Munich RE. Photo: Munich RE

Fact No. 8. Climate change is one of the reasons for the war in Syria

Since 1990, the average annual temperature in Syria has increased by 1-1.2ºС. This has reduced the rainfall season, vital for crops, by 10 percent. Local farmers find themselves in a difficult situation. Harvests have fallen, and lack of water in the Fertile Crescent has killed off animals. As a consequence of this, unemployment worsened, grain prices rose by almost a third, and famine set in.

Al Zaatari camp for temporary housing of 80,000 Syrian refugees. Photo: sputniknews.com

The severe drought that lasted in Syria from 2006 to 2010 was one of the reasons that triggered the civil war in the country. American climatologists came to this conclusion. The study was published in the prestigious journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Map of precipitation and vegetation in southern countries. Prolonged drought and water shortages are forcing people to protest and participate in illegal armed groups. Photo: independent.co.uk

These factors, the researchers concluded, added to the country's already dire situation caused by government corruption, social protests and population growth. As a result, one and a half million rural residents flocked to the crowded cities, sparking civil conflict.

Fact No. 9. Over 19 million climate refugees

Climate refugees are trying to get the last of the water from a dry well.

Temperature fluctuations provoke devastating floods, fires and droughts, forcing people to leave their homes. In 2014, more than 19 million people from one hundred countries were forced to leave their homes due to natural disasters caused by climate change. These numbers will grow rapidly in the future. Scientists estimate that by mid-century the number of so-called environmental refugees will grow to 200 million.

Climate change is forcing people to leave their homes in search of a prosperous life. Photo: earthjournalism.net

However, the 1951 Geneva Convention relating to the Status of Refugees still does not include the concept of “climate” or “environmental refugee”, which makes it difficult to maintain statistics on this type of migrant. In May of this year, residents of Ile de Jean Charles in Louisiana (USA) became the first officially recognized “climate refugees”. The land, which was inhabited by Indian tribes for hundreds of years, is now turning into a salt marsh and is gradually sinking into the sea due to floods. A state government program has forced the community of about 60 people to leave the island due to climate change.

Fact No. 10. Epidemic outbreaks

This year, humanity is faced with another threat - the Zika virus. To date, the disease has been detected in 23 countries and is rapidly spreading throughout the planet.

Women infected with the Zika virus with their children. Photo: images.latinpost.com

Zika virus - infection, which is transmitted primarily through mosquitoes. Cases of sexual transmission of the virus have also been reported. The virus is most dangerous for pregnant women, as it causes microcephaly in the fetus with potential severe brain damage.

Scientists say global warming is one of the reasons for the rapid spread of the disease. Climate change has created favorable living conditions for the mosquitoes that carry the virus and larger breeding areas.

Changing of the climate- fluctuations in the climate of the Earth as a whole or its individual regions over time, expressed in statistically significant deviations of weather parameters from long-term values ​​over a period of time from decades to millions of years. Changes in both average weather parameters and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events are taken into account. The science of paleoclimatology studies climate change. Climate change is caused by dynamic processes on Earth, external influences such as fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation, and, according to one version, more recently, human activity. Recently, the term "climate change" is commonly used (especially in the context of environmental policy) to refer to changes in the modern climate (see global warming).

Climate change is caused by changes in the Earth's atmosphere, processes occurring in other parts of the Earth, such as oceans, glaciers, as well as effects associated with human activities. External processes that shape climate are changes in solar radiation and Earth's orbit.

• changes in the size and relative position of continents and oceans,
• change in sun luminosity,
• changes in the parameters of the Earth's orbit,
• changes in the transparency of the atmosphere and its composition as a result of changes in the Earth’s volcanic activity,
• changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4) in the atmosphere,
• change in the reflectivity of the Earth's surface (albedo),
• change in the amount of heat available in the depths of the ocean.

Climate change on Earth

Weather is the daily state of the atmosphere. Weather is a chaotic non-linear dynamic system. Climate is the average state of the weather and, on the contrary, it is stable and predictable. Climate includes indicators such as average temperature, precipitation, number of sunny days and other variables that can be measured in a particular location. However, processes also occur on Earth that can affect the climate.

24.Chemical and radioactive pollution of the environment. "Green capitals" of Europe.

The presented work is devoted to the topic "Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)."
The problem of this study has relevance in the modern world. This is evidenced by frequent examination of the issues raised.
The topic “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)” is studied at the intersection of several interrelated disciplines. For current state science is characterized by a transition to a global consideration of problems on the topic “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)”.
Many works are devoted to research questions. Basically, the material presented in educational literature is of a general nature, and numerous monographs on this topic examine narrower issues of the problem of “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic).” However, it is necessary to take into account modern conditions when studying the problems of the designated topic.
The high significance and insufficient practical development of the problem “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)” determine the undoubted novelty of this research.
Further attention to the issue of “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)” is necessary in order to more deeply and substantively resolve particular current problems of the subject of this study.
The relevance of this work is due, on the one hand, to the great interest in the topic “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)” in modern science, and on the other hand, to its insufficient development. Consideration of issues related to this topic is of both theoretical and practical significance.
The results can be used to develop an analysis methodology for “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)”.
The theoretical significance of studying the problem “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)” lies in the fact that the problems chosen for consideration are at the intersection of several scientific disciplines.
The object of this study is the analysis of the conditions “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)”.
In this case, the subject of the study is to consider individual issues formulated as the objectives of this study.
The purpose of the study is to study the topic “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)” from the point of view of the latest domestic and foreign research on similar issues.
As part of achieving this goal, the author set and solved the following tasks:
1. Explore theoretical aspects and identify the nature of “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)”;
2. Talk about the relevance of the problem “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)” in modern conditions;
3. Outline the possibilities for solving the topic “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)”;
4. Outline the trends in the development of the topic “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)”;
The work has a traditional structure and includes an introduction, a main part consisting of 3 chapters, a conclusion and a bibliography.
The introduction substantiates the relevance of the choice of topic, sets the goal and objectives of the research, characterizes research methods and sources of information.
Chapter one reveals general issues, reveals the historical aspects of the problem “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)”. Basic concepts are defined and the relevance of the issues “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)” is determined.
Chapter two examines in more detail the content and modern problems of “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic).”
Chapter three is of a practical nature and, based on individual data, an analysis of the current state is made, as well as an analysis of the prospects and development trends of “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)”.
Based on the results of the study, a number of problems related to the topic under consideration were revealed, and conclusions were drawn about the need for further study/improvement of the state of the issue.
Thus, the relevance of this problem determined the choice of the topic of the work “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)”, the range of issues and the logical scheme of its construction.
The theoretical and methodological basis for the research were legislative acts and regulatory documents on the topic of the work.
The sources of information for writing a work on the topic “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)” were basic educational literature, fundamental theoretical works of the largest thinkers in the field under consideration, results of practical research by prominent domestic and foreign authors, articles and reviews in specialized and periodical publications devoted to the topic “Environmental pollution (including chemical, toxic and radioactive, biological and genetic)”, reference literature, and other relevant sources of information.

The European Commission has established a new European Green Capital award to evaluate European cities in terms of ecology, environmental conditions and ecotourism development prospects.
As a result of comparing many parameters, eight finalists were selected from 35 cities that applied for the “green award”: Amsterdam, Bristol, Copenhagen, Friborg, Hamburg, Munster, Oslo and Stockholm.

But there were two absolute winners: Stockholm will become the “Green Capital of Europe” in 2010 and Hamburg in 2011.

Sweden's capital, built on an archipelago of 14 islands, is surrounded by forested oases that are easily accessible from the city center thanks to a very efficient transport system. The two “green hearts” of Stockholm are Djurgården and Ekoparken. Ecoparken - the world's first urban national park, with an area of ​​more than 30 square kilometers, is of particular environmental value. By 2050, Stockholm should completely switch to alternative energy sources and become completely independent from non-renewable energy sources such as gas, oil and coal. The second largest European port and the greenest city in Germany, it is no coincidence that Hamburg will bear the title of “Green Capital” in 2011. Environmentalists note the effective environmentally friendly technologies of urban management, and tourists note the abundance of plants in Hamburg. In addition, the Planten un Blomen park located in the city includes a huge botanical garden, a tropical greenhouse and the largest Japanese garden in Europe. And the municipal Standpark is considered the largest “green theater” - there is an open stage in the park, as well as a large planetarium.

Factors influencing climate

Climatic conditions play an important role in people's lives. The existence of more than a dozen climate-forming factors is generally accepted. The most significant are the following:

· concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, etc.);

movement of air masses

· concentration of tropospheric aerosols;

· solar radiation;

· volcanic activity causing pollution of the stratosphere with aerosols of sulfuric acid;

· self-oscillations in the atmosphere-ocean system (El Niño-Southern Oscillation);

· parameters of the Earth's orbit.

The impact of these factors on the radiation balance over the course of a decade and the last century was analyzed.

One of the most important factors influencing the climate of the planets is solar radiation falling on the planet. Solar radiation falling on the planet is partially reflected into outer space and partially absorbed. The absorbed energy heats the planet's surface.

An extremely important factor influencing the climate of planets is the presence or absence of an atmosphere. The atmosphere of the planet affects the thermal regime of the planet. The planet's dense atmosphere affects climate in several ways:

a) the greenhouse effect increases surface temperature;

b) the atmosphere smoothes out daily temperature fluctuations;

c) the movement of air masses (atmospheric circulation) smoothes out the temperature difference between the equator and the pole.

When considering secular climate variability, it turned out that it was the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that determined the increase in average global temperature by 0.5°C. However, the explanation of current and future climate change solely by the anthropogenic factor rests on a very shaky foundation, although its role is certainly increasing over time.

The greenhouse effect is an increase in the temperature of a planet's surface and the planet's lower atmosphere due to the atmosphere allowing solar radiation to pass through (the atmosphere is said to be transparent to solar radiation) and trapping the planet's thermal radiation. Why might this happen? The planet's thermal radiation is delayed (absorbed) by complex molecules, such as carbon dioxide CO2, water H2O and others. (The atmosphere is transparent to solar radiation and opaque to the thermal radiation of the planet). It is due to the greenhouse effect that the temperature of Venus rises from T = - 44 C° to T = 462 C°. Venus is, as it were, covered with a layer of carbon dioxide, like vegetables in a greenhouse - with plastic film.

The greenhouse effect plays a very important role in shaping the Earth's climate. For example, on Titan, due to the greenhouse effect, the temperature rises by 3 - 5 C°.

Solar radiation is solar radiation. The level of solar radiation is measured on 1 m2 of the earth's surface per unit of time (MJ/m2). Its distribution depends on the latitude of the area, which determines the angle of incidence of the sun's rays, and the length of the day, which in turn affects the duration and intensity of sunshine, indicators of total solar radiation and the average air temperature for the year.

20% of solar radiation reaching the Earth is reflected by the atmosphere. The rest of it reaches the earth's surface - this is direct solar radiation. Part of the radiation is absorbed and scattered by drops of water, ice, dust particles, and clouds.

Such radiation is called scattered. Direct and scattered make up the total. Some of the radiation is reflected from the Earth's surface - this is reflected radiation.

Movements of air masses. Air mass is a large volume of air in the troposphere, which has characteristic properties (temperature, humidity, transparency). The formation of various types of air masses occurs as a result of uneven heating of the earth's surface. The entire system of air movement is called atmospheric circulation.

Between the air masses there are transition areas several tens of kilometers wide. These areas are called atmospheric fronts. Atmospheric fronts are in constant motion. At the same time, the weather changes, the air masses change. Fronts are divided into warm and cold fronts.

A warm front forms when warm air steps on the cold one and pushes it aside. Cold front is formed when cold air moves towards warm air and pushes it away.

A warm front brings warmer temperatures and precipitation. A cold front brings cooler temperatures and clearer weather. The development of cyclones and anticyclones is associated with atmospheric fronts.

The underlying earth's surface affects the distribution of solar radiation and the movement of air masses.

Warm biosphere analysis Cretaceous period as an analogue of projected warming, showed that the effects of the main climate-forming factors (besides carbon dioxide) are insufficient to explain warming of this magnitude in the past. The greenhouse effect of the required magnitude would correspond to a multiple increase in the CO2 content in the atmosphere. The impetus for the enormous climate changes during this period of the Earth’s development was most likely a positive feedback between the increase in the temperature of the oceans and seas and the increase in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

The response of young pine trees, young orange trees, and wheat to an increase in CO2 content in the environment in the range from 400 to 800 ppm is almost linear and positive. These data can be easily transferred to different levels of CO2 enrichment and to different plant species. The impact of increasing amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere also includes an increase in the mass of US forests (by 30% since 1950). CO2 growth has a greater stimulating effect on plants growing in drier (stressful) conditions. And the intensive growth of plant communities, according to the authors of the review, inevitably leads to an increase in the total mass of animals and has a positive impact on biodiversity as a whole. This leads to an optimistic conclusion: “As a result of increasing atmospheric CO2, we live in more and more favorable environmental conditions. Our children will enjoy life on an Earth with many more plants and animals. This is a wonderful and unexpected gift from the industrial revolution.”

Of course, fluctuations in CO2 levels in the atmosphere have occurred in past eras, but never have these changes occurred so quickly. But if in the past the climate and biological systems of the Earth, due to gradual changes in the composition of the atmosphere, “managed” to transition to a new stable state and were in quasi-equilibrium, then in the modern period, with intense, extremely rapid changes in the gas composition of the atmosphere, all earth systems leave the stationary state. And even if we take the position of the authors who deny the hypothesis of global warming, we cannot help but note that the consequences of such a “leaving the quasi-stationary state,” in particular climate change, can be the most serious.

In addition, according to some forecasts, after reaching the maximum concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, it will begin to fall due to a decrease in anthropogenic emissions and absorption of carbon dioxide by the World Ocean and biota. In this case, the plants will again have to adapt to the changed environment.

In this regard, some results of mathematical modeling of the complex consequences of possible changes in the Earth's climate are extremely interesting.

Experiments with a three-dimensional model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system conducted by American researchers showed that in response to warming, the thermohaline North Atlantic circulation (North Atlantic Current) is slowing down. The critical value of CO2 concentration causing this effect lies between two and four pre-industrial values ​​of CO2 content in the atmosphere (it is equal to 280 ppm, and the modern concentration is about 360 ppm).

Using a simpler model of the ocean-atmosphere system, experts carried out a detailed mathematical analysis the processes described above. According to their calculations, when the concentration of carbon dioxide increases by 1% per year (which corresponds to modern rates), the North Atlantic Current slows down, and when the CO2 content is equal to 750 ppm, its collapse occurs - a complete cessation of circulation. With a slower increase in carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere (and air temperature) - for example, by 0.5% per year, when the concentration reaches 750 ppm, the circulation slows down, but then slowly recovers. With accelerated growth of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and associated warming, the North Atlantic Current collapses at lower CO2 concentrations of 650 ppm. The reasons for the change in current are that warming of the land air causes an increase in the temperature of the surface layers of water, as well as an increase in saturated vapor pressure in the northern regions, and therefore increased condensation, which causes an increase in the mass of desalinated water on the surface of the ocean in the North Atlantic.

Both processes lead to increased stratification of the water column and slow down (or even make impossible) the constant formation of cold deep waters in the North Atlantic, when surface waters, cooling and becoming heavier, sink to the bottom areas and then slowly move towards the tropics.

Studies of this kind of consequences of atmospheric warming, recently carried out by R. Wood and his colleagues, provide an even more interesting picture of possible events. In addition to a reduction in the overall Atlantic transport by 25%, at the current rate of growth of greenhouse gases, convection will be “switched off” in the Labrador Sea, one of the two northern centers of formation of cold deep waters. Moreover, this may take place already in the period from 2000 to 2030.

These fluctuations in the North Atlantic Current can lead to very serious consequences. In particular, if the distribution of heat flows and temperatures deviates from the current one in the Atlantic region of the Northern Hemisphere, the average surface air temperatures over Europe may decrease significantly. Moreover, changes in the speed of the North Atlantic Current and heating of surface waters can reduce the absorption of CO2 by the ocean (according to the calculations of the mentioned experts - by 30% when the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air doubles), which should be taken into account both in forecasts of the future state of the atmosphere and in scenarios greenhouse gas emissions. Significant changes can also occur in marine ecosystems, including fish and seabird populations, which depend not only on specific climatic conditions, but also on nutrients that are carried to the surface by cold ocean currents. Here we want to emphasize the extremely important point mentioned above: the consequences of increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, as can be seen, can be much more complex than uniform warming of the surface atmosphere.

When modeling carbon dioxide exchange, it is necessary to take into account the effect on gas transfer of the state of the interface between the ocean and the atmosphere. For a number of years, the intensity of CO2 transfer in the water-air system has been studied in laboratory and field experiments. The effect on gas exchange of wind-wave conditions and a dispersed medium formed near the interface between two phases (spray above the surface, foam, air bubbles in the water column) was considered. It turned out that the rate of gas transfer when the nature of the disturbance changes from gravity-capillary to gravity increases significantly. This effect (in addition to increasing ocean surface temperatures) may further contribute to the flow of carbon dioxide between the ocean and the atmosphere. On the other hand, a significant sink of CO2 from the atmosphere is precipitation, which, as our studies have shown, intensively washes away carbon dioxide, in addition to other gaseous impurities. Calculations using data on the content of dissolved carbon dioxide in rainwater and annual precipitation showed that 0.2-1 Gt CO2 can enter the ocean annually with rain, and the total amount of carbon dioxide washed out of the atmosphere can reach 0.7-2.0 Gt.

Since atmospheric carbon dioxide is partially absorbed by precipitation and surface fresh water, the CO2 content in the soil solution increases and, as a consequence, acidification of the environment occurs. In experiments carried out in the laboratory, an attempt was made to investigate the specific effects of CO2 dissolved in water on the accumulation of biomass by plants. Wheat seedlings were grown on standard aqueous nutrient media, in which dissolved molecular CO2 and bicarbonate ion in various concentrations served as additional sources of carbon, in addition to atmospheric carbon. This was achieved by varying the time of saturation of the aqueous solution with gaseous carbon dioxide. It turned out that an initial increase in CO2 concentration in the nutrient medium leads to stimulation of the ground and root mass of wheat plants. However, when the content of dissolved carbon dioxide was 2-3 times higher than normal, inhibition of plant root growth was observed with a change in their morphology. It is possible that with significant acidification of the environment, a decrease in the assimilation of other nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, magnesium, calcium) occurs. Thus, the indirect effects of elevated CO2 concentrations must be taken into account when assessing their effect on plant growth.

The data on the intensification of growth of plants of various species and ages given in the appendix to the petition leave unanswered the question of the conditions for the provision of the objects of study with nutrients. It should be emphasized that changes in CO2 concentration must be strictly balanced with the consumption of nitrogen, phosphorus, other nutrients, light, and water in the production process without disturbing the ecological balance. Thus, enhanced plant growth at high CO2 concentrations was observed in an environment rich in nutrients. For example, in wetlands in the Chesapeake Bay estuary (southwestern USA), where mainly C3 plants grow, an increase in CO2 in the air to 700 ppm led to intensified plant growth and an increase in the density of their growth. An analysis of more than 700 agronomic works showed that with high concentrations of CO2 in the environment, grain yields were on average 34% larger (where sufficient amounts of fertilizers and water were added to the soil - resources available in abundance only in developed countries). To increase the productivity of agricultural crops in conditions of increasing carbon dioxide in the air, it will obviously be necessary not only significant amount fertilizers, but also plant protection products (herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, etc.), as well as extensive irrigation work. It is reasonable to fear that the cost of these activities and the environmental consequences will be too significant and disproportionate.

Research has also revealed the role of competition in ecosystems, which leads to a decrease in the stimulating effect of high CO2 concentrations. Indeed, seedlings of trees of the same species in temperate climates (New England, USA) and the tropics grew better at high concentrations of atmospheric CO2, but when seedlings of different species were grown together, the productivity of such communities did not increase under the same conditions. It is likely that competition for nutrients inhibits plant responses to rising carbon dioxide.

The study of the adaptive strategy and response of plants to fluctuations in the main factors influencing climate change and environmental characteristics has made it possible to clarify some forecasts. Back in 1987, a scenario was prepared for the agroclimatic consequences of modern climate change and CO2 growth in the Earth’s atmosphere for North America. According to estimates, with an increase in CO2 concentration to 400 ppm and an increase in the average global temperature at the earth's surface by 0.5°C, the wheat yield under these conditions will increase by 7-10%. But an increase in air temperatures in northern latitudes will be especially evident in winter and will cause extremely unfavorable frequent winter thaws, which can lead to weakening of the frost resistance of winter crops, freezing of crops and damage by ice crust. The predicted increase in the warm period will necessitate the selection of new varieties with a longer growing season.

As for the forecasts for the yield of main agricultural crops for Russia, the ongoing increase in average surface air temperatures and the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere, it would seem, should have a positive effect. The impact of only an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can ensure an increase in the productivity of leading agricultural crops - C3 plants (cereals, potatoes, beets, etc.) - by an average of 20-30%, while for C4 plants (corn, millet, sorghum , amaranth) this growth is insignificant. However, warming will obviously entail a decrease in the level of atmospheric moisture by about 10%, which will complicate farming especially in the southern part of the European territory, in the Volga region, in the steppe regions of Western and Eastern Siberia. Here we can expect not only a decrease in the yield of products per unit area, but also the development of erosion processes (especially wind), deterioration in soil quality, including loss of humus, salinization, and desertification of large areas. It was found that the saturation of the surface layer of the atmosphere up to 1 m thick with excess CO2 can respond with a “desert effect”. This layer absorbs rising heat flows, so as a result of its enrichment with carbon dioxide (1.5 times compared to the current norm), the local air temperature directly at the earth's surface will become several degrees higher than the average temperature. The rate of evaporation of moisture from the soil will increase, which will lead to its drying out. Because of this, the production of grain, feed, sugar beets, potatoes, sunflower seeds, vegetables, etc. may decrease throughout the country. As a result, the proportions between the distribution of the population and the production of main types of agricultural products will change.

Terrestrial ecosystems are thus very sensitive to an increase in CO2 in the atmosphere, and, by absorbing excess carbon during photosynthesis, they, in turn, contribute to the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Soil respiration processes play an equally important role in the formation of CO2 levels in the atmosphere. It is known that modern climate warming causes increased release of inorganic carbon from soils (especially in northern latitudes). Model calculations carried out to assess the response of terrestrial ecosystems to global changes in climate and CO2 levels in the atmosphere showed that in the case of only an increase in CO2 (without climate change), the stimulation of photosynthesis decreases at high CO2 values, but the release of carbon from soils increases as it increases. accumulation in vegetation and soils. If atmospheric CO2 stabilizes, net ecosystem production (the net flow of carbon between biota and the atmosphere) quickly drops to zero as photosynthesis is compensated for by plant and soil respiration. The response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change without the impact of rising CO2, according to these calculations, may be a decrease in the global flow of carbon from the atmosphere to biota due to increased soil respiration in northern ecosystems and a decrease in net primary production in the tropics as a result of a decrease in soil moisture content. This result is supported by estimates that the effects of warming on soil respiration outweigh the effects on plant growth and reduce soil carbon storage. The combined effects of global warming and rising atmospheric CO2 can increase global net ecosystem production and carbon sinks into biota, but significant increases in soil respiration can compensate for this sink in winter and spring. It is important that these predictions of the response of terrestrial ecosystems depend significantly on species composition plant communities, nutrient availability, age of tree species and vary significantly within climatic zones.

Non-climatic factors and their impact on climate change

Greenhouse gases

It is generally accepted that greenhouse gases are the main cause of global warming. Greenhouse gases are also important for understanding the Earth's climate history. According to research, the greenhouse effect, which results from the warming of the atmosphere by thermal energy trapped by greenhouse gases, is a key process regulating the Earth's temperature.

Over the past 600 million years, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have varied from 200 ppm to more than 5,000 ppm due to the influence of geological and biological processes. However, in 1999, Weiser et al. showed that over the past tens of millions of years there is no strong correlation between greenhouse gas concentrations and climate change and that tectonic movement of lithospheric plates plays a more important role. More recently, Royer et al. used the CO2-climate correlation to derive a value for “climate sensitivity.” There are several examples of rapid changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere that have a strong correlation with strong warming, including the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum, the extinction of Permian-Triassic species, and the end of the Varangian snowball earth event.

Rising levels of carbon dioxide have been considered the main cause of global warming since 1950. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere in 2005 was 379 ppm3, in the pre-industrial period it was 280 ppm3.

To prevent dramatic warming in the coming years, carbon dioxide concentrations must be reduced to pre-industrial levels of 350 ppm (0.035%) (currently 385 ppm and increasing by 2 ppm (0.0002%) in year, mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation).

There is skepticism about geoengineering methods for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, particularly proposals to bury carbon dioxide in tectonic fractures or inject it into rocks on the ocean floor: removing 50 ppm of gas using this technology would cost at least $20 trillion. which is twice the US national debt.

Plate tectonics

Over long periods of time, plate tectonic movements move continents, form oceans, create and destroy mountain ranges, and create the surface on which climate exists. Recent research shows that tectonic movements exacerbated the conditions of the last ice age: about 3 million years ago, the North and South American plates collided, forming the Isthmus of Panama and closing the path for direct mixing of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

Solar radiation:

The sun is the main source of heat in the climate system. Solar energy, converted into heat on the Earth's surface, is an integral component that shapes the earth's climate. If we consider a long period of time, then within this framework the Sun becomes brighter and releases more energy as it develops according to the main sequence. This slow development also affects the earth's atmosphere. It is believed that in the early stages of Earth's history, the Sun was too cold for water on the Earth's surface to be liquid, which led to the so-called. “paradox of the faint young Sun.” Changes in solar activity are also observed over shorter time periods: an 11-year solar cycle and longer modulations. However, the 11-year cycle of sunspot occurrence and disappearance is not explicitly tracked in climatological data. Changes in solar activity are considered an important factor in the onset of the Little Ice Age, as well as some of the warming events observed between 1900 and 1950. The cyclical nature of solar activity is not yet fully understood; it is different from the slow changes that accompany the development and aging of the Sun.

Orbital changes: In their impact on climate, changes in the Earth's orbit are similar to fluctuations in solar activity, since small deviations in the position of the orbit lead to a redistribution of solar radiation on the Earth's surface. Such changes in orbital position are called Milankovitch cycles, they are predictable with high accuracy, since they are the result of the physical interaction of the Earth, its satellite Moon and other planets. Orbital changes are considered to be the main causes of the alternating glacial and interglacial cycles of the last ice age. The result precession the earth's orbit are also smaller-scale changes, such as the periodic increase and decrease in desert area Sahara.

Volcanism: One strong volcanic eruption can affect the climate, causing a cold snap lasting several years. For example, the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 significantly affected the climate. Giant eruptions forming largest igneous provinces, occur only a few times every hundred million years, but they influence the climate for millions of years and cause extinction species. At first, scientists believed that the cause of the cooling was volcanic dust emitted into the atmosphere, since it prevented solar radiation from reaching the Earth's surface. However, measurements show that most of the dust settles on the Earth's surface within six months.

Volcanoes are also part of the geochemical carbon cycle. Over many geological periods, carbon dioxide has been released from the Earth's interior into the atmosphere, thereby neutralizing the amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere and bound by sedimentary rocks and other geological CO2 sinks. However, this contribution is not comparable in magnitude to anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide, which, according to US Geological Survey estimates, is 130 times greater than the amount of CO2 emitted by volcanoes.

Anthropogenic impact on climate change:

Anthropogenic factors include human activities that change the environment and influence the climate. In some cases the cause-and-effect relationship is direct and unambiguous, such as the effect of irrigation on temperature and humidity, in other cases the relationship is less obvious. Various hypotheses of human influence on climate have been discussed over the years. At the end of the 19th century in the western part of the USA and Australia, for example, the theory “rain follows the plow” was popular. The main problems today are: the increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere due to fuel combustion, aerosols in the atmosphere, affecting its cooling, and the cement industry. Other factors such as land use, ozone depletion, livestock farming and deforestation also influence climate

Fuel combustion: Beginning to rise during the Industrial Revolution in the 1850s and gradually accelerating, human fuel consumption has caused atmospheric CO2 concentrations to rise from ~280 ppm to 380 ppm. With this increase, the projected concentration at the end of the 21st century would be more than 560 ppm. It is known that CO2 levels in the atmosphere are now higher than at any time in the last 750,000 years. Together with increasing methane concentrations, these changes predict a temperature increase of 1.4-5.6°C between 1990 and 2040.

Aerosols: Anthropogenic aerosols, especially sulfates emitted by fuel combustion, are thought to contribute to atmospheric cooling. It is believed that this property is the reason for the relative “plateau” in the temperature graph in the middle of the 20th century.

Cement industry: Cement production is an intensive source of CO2 emissions. Carbon dioxide is formed when calcium carbonate(CaCO3) heated to produce cement ingredient calcium oxide(CaO or quicklime). Cement production is responsible for approximately 5% of CO2 emissions from industrial processes (energy and industrial sectors). When mixing cement, the same amount of CO2 is absorbed from the atmosphere during the reverse reaction CaO + CO2 = CaCO3. Therefore, the production and consumption of cement changes only the local concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere, without changing the average value.

Land use : Land use has a significant impact on climate.

Irrigation, deforestation and agriculture are fundamentally changing the environment. For example, the water balance changes in an irrigated area. Land use can change the albedo of a given area because it changes the properties of the underlying surface and thereby the amount of solar radiation absorbed. For example, there is reason to believe that the climate of Greece and other Mediterranean countries changed due to large-scale deforestation between 700 BC. e. and the beginning of AD e. (wood used for construction, shipbuilding and as fuel), becoming hotter and drier, and the types of trees that were used in shipbuilding no longer grow in the area. According to a 2007 study by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the average temperature in California has increased by 2°C over the past 50 years, and in cities this increase is much higher. This is mainly a consequence of anthropogenic changes to the landscape.

Cattle breeding: According to the 2006 UN report "Long Shadow of Livestock", livestock is responsible for 18% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. This includes changes in land use, i.e. clearing of forests for pasture. In the Amazon rainforest, 70% of deforestation is for pasture, which was the main reason why the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) included land use under the influence of pastoralism in a 2006 agricultural report. In addition to CO2 emissions, livestock farming accounts for 65% of nitrogen oxide and 37% of methane emissions, which are of anthropogenic origin. This figure was revised in 2009 by two scientists from the Worldwatch Institute: they estimated the contribution of livestock to greenhouse gas emissions at 51% of global emissions.

Interaction of factors: The influence on the climate of all factors, both natural and anthropogenic, is expressed by a single value - radiative heating of the atmosphere in W/m2.

Volcanic eruptions, glaciations, continental drift and the shift of the Earth's poles are powerful natural processes that affect the Earth's climate. On a scale of several years, volcanoes can play a major role. As a result of the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, so much ash was thrown to a height of 35 km that the average level of solar radiation decreased by 2.5 W/m2. However, these changes are not long-term; the particles settle down relatively quickly. On a millennium scale, the climate-determining process is likely to be the slow movement from one ice age to the next.

On a scale of several centuries, in 2005 compared to 1750, there is a combination of multidirectional factors, each of which is significantly weaker than the result of an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, estimated as a warming of 2.4–3.0 W/m2. Human influence is less than 1% of the total radiation balance, and the anthropogenic increase in the natural greenhouse effect is approximately 2%, from 33 to 33.7 degrees C. Thus, the average air temperature at the Earth's surface has increased since the pre-industrial era (since about 1750) by 0.7 °C

Biosphere. Its boundaries.

The biosphere is a complex shell of the Earth, covering the entire hydrosphere, the upper part of the lithosphere and the lower part of the atmosphere, populated by living organisms and transformed by them. The biosphere is a global ecosystem with interconnections, the circulation of substances and the transformation of energy.

The biosphere consists of living, or biotic, and nonliving, or abiotic, components. The biotic component is the entire set of living organisms (according to Vernadsky - “living matter”). An abiotic component is a combination of energy, water, certain chemical elements and other inorganic conditions in which living organisms exist.

Life in the biosphere depends on the flow of energy and the circulation of substances between biotic and abiotic components. The cycles of substances are called biogeochemical cycles. The existence of these cycles is ensured by the energy of the Sun. The Earth receives approx. 1.3-1024 calories per year. About 40% of this energy is radiated back into space; 15% is absorbed by the atmosphere, soil and water; the rest of the energy is visible light, the primary source of energy for all life on Earth.

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The influence of plants on climate and water regime

Photosynthesis is the main source of oxygen in the earth's atmosphere. Plants create breathing conditions for billions of living beings, including humans. The oxygen needs of just one person over 70–80 years of life amount to several tens of tons. If you imagine that photosynthesis on the planet will cease, all the oxygen in the atmosphere will be consumed in just 2000 years.

The absorption and evaporation of water by terrestrial plants affects water regime their habitats and the climate in general. In an hour, up to 2.5 g of water is released from each square decimeter of foliage. This amounts to many tons of water per hectare every hour. A birch tree alone evaporates up to 100 liters of water per day.

Humidifying the air, delaying wind movement, vegetation creates a special microclimate , softening the conditions for the existence of many species. In the forest, temperature fluctuations throughout the year and day are less than in open spaces. Forests also greatly change humidity conditions: they lower the groundwater level, retain precipitation, promote the deposition of dew and fog, and prevent soil erosion. A special light regime arises in them, allowing shade-loving species to grow under the canopy of more light-loving ones.