Vladimir Putin celebrated his 62nd birthday in the deserted taiga, and one can understand him: what vengeful enemies and annoying friends have gotten to him! The full truth, however, is perhaps that not only Vladimir Vladimirovich fenced himself off from the world, but the world also isolated him from itself - these are counter processes. On October 7, while the president was walking through the Siberian mountains, we published material with expert statements that Putin will emerge victorious both in the foreign policy arena and as a national leader. Today, when the congratulatory greetings have already died down, we suggest looking at his prospects from the opposite point of view.
“The ideal scenario for the United States is Putin’s departure”
Alexander Dugin gives a global panorama: America does not intend to part with the status of world hegemon and the project of establishing a New World Order, and a growing Russia is like a guest in its throat. Hence the Maidan, whose task is to tear Ukraine and Crimea away from Russia, to disrupt the “processes Eurasian integration"(as you know, Dugin is the leader of the International Eurasian Movement, the ideologist of the reconstruction Russian Empire in her next reincarnation). But Putin thwarted these plans by annexing Crimea and, in addition to the United States and its “geopolitical allies, including the global financial oligarchy,” he made two more enemies - Kiev and national traitors inside Russia (Alexander Gelyevich names China, Donbass and Russian patriots, and even more broadly, the people as Putin’s allies).
But in Lately, with the adoption of the Minsk agreements, this, as Dugin puts it, “the Brzezinski-Kissinger-Primakov plan,” the situation changed dramatically again: Putin, like someone else, stops the war: “My forecast is pessimistic: Putin is captured by a group of people who carry out the order of external centers according to his blocking. He is disoriented, misinformed, and has come under some form of blackmail, namely geopolitical blackmail, by representatives of these global circles and their networks, who have managed, in fact, to radically change Russia’s internal information policy. And since Putin is a patriot and the leader of the Russian world and the initiator of the Russian Spring, I think that a conspiracy is being prepared against him to overthrow him... The surrender of Novorossiya is necessary to overthrow Putin.” Understand, Vladimir Vladimirovich, abandon your own - you will disgrace yourself in the eyes of 85% of your now enthusiastic compatriots, convinces Dugin, who has done so much to ensure these same 85%.
Sergey Stepashin: " The purpose of the sanctions is to change power in the Kremlin"
The real food for his reasoning is provided by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who now lives in Switzerland, who in an interview with Vedomosti signals to us: Putin’s “third term” demonstrates that the system has grown old, has lost its flexibility and can no longer be reformed. And this increases the risk of dying under its rubble.”
Therefore, there is great interest external forces It’s not just Dugin, the philosopher and theorist, who speaks about Putin’s misfortunes. Practitioners say the same thing. Sergei Stepashin: the goal of the new sanctions is no longer so much to help Ukraine as to change power in the Kremlin. “The ultimate goal [of sanctions] is regime change,” this is seen not only by the former State Duma deputy from United Russia, political scientist Sergei Markov, but also by the non-party chairman of the presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy Fyodor Lukyanov. “A more long-term goal, although they don’t talk about it and won’t talk about it, I think, is a change in the political situation inside Russia, if you like, a regime change,” he shares on Lenta.ru. - After everything that happened in the spring and summer, normal contacts between Moscow and Washington are top level, in my opinion, are impossible. And not only for Obama, but, most likely, for his successor. The Kremlin also perceives the United States as an outright enemy. Therefore, the ideal scenario for the United States is the departure of President Putin... We are, of course, not talking about direct intervention, but the deterioration of the situation in Russia through sanctions is seen as a long-term means of weakening the ruling group.”
“People who are able to speak directly with Putin should explain to the president...”
According to again, both domestic and foreign observers, the “elite” will act as a striking force against Vladimir Putin - big business, the bureaucracy, which is having a hard time due to the geopolitical initiatives of the president: not only is property (stocks, companies) becoming cheaper, not only are contracts being broken; the authorities demand to return to their homeland with capital, and better yet, with their families - and the entire life strategy is disrupted.
This is noticeable from the barely concealed regret expressed in a famous interview with ITAR-TASS by one of Vladimir Putin’s friends, businessman Gennady Timchenko. In the conversation, he, a citizen of Finland, lovingly talks about his son, who was born in Helsinki and is now studying in Switzerland, and sadly admits that “now he has actually become restricted from traveling abroad. The family went to the south of France for the summer, where we traditionally vacation every year, and I found myself cut off from all this. From relatives, from a beloved dog... Formally, nothing prevents it. I can even get on a plane today and fly to Paris, Geneva or London... Alas, there is reason to seriously fear provocations from the US intelligence services. Believe me, this is not speculation, but quite specific information.”
Gennady Timchenko: “The family went to the south of France, and I found myself cut off”
“These are huge losses because we are no longer considered people, that is, full members of the West, which Russia has been striving for since Gorbachev’s perestroika for 25 years, and now suddenly it is moving into a dead end and into the ditch of this whole situation only because Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin decided to confront the terrible American lawlessness... The matter smells of kerosene. It smells like kerosene,” Stanislav Belkovsky concludes on Ekho Moskvy and advises the Russian elites to go to a single office for a conversation - the Novoogaryovsky residence, “since no one decides anything in any other offices.”
And Evgenia Albats simply persuades them to dare and show character: “People, those who are able to speak directly with Putin must put aside their petty fears(the business will be taken away) and explain to the president that day X has come, the day of choice - his choice. That the time has come to leave these boyish charms, like “they won’t give up their own,” and remember that there are more important things at stake - the country. And that his, Putin’s, future depends on this choice. Because the boys, as they believe, will not forgive him for his softness and deflection before the West and sooner or later they will grab him by the throat. But today he still has a chance not to cross the line. And today is exactly the moment when the elite must show that they are the elite, and not a bunch of greedy and fearful people, for whom girls and the number of zeros in their bank accounts are the horizon beyond which there is nothing else.”
“It’s a myth that Russians have stopped keeping their money in the US”
The same Alexander Dugin would probably have laughed badly at such a remark, since he considers our oligarchy and part of the state apparatus to be a “sixth” column - an agency of Western influence, which does not need to be persuaded. But what again attracts attention is that the same views are professed not only by him, but also by American Senator Carl Levin, who reminds in the influential journal Foreign Policy: “It is simply a myth that Russians have stopped storing their money in the United States. There are billions of dollars in America" In other words: if you hold back these billions “earned by back-breaking labor,” the elites will not only be forced to convert, but will rush to Novo-Ogarevo themselves.
As Herbert Meyer, a former assistant director of the CIA, so eloquently puts it, “We need to make the Russian oligarchs and executives targeted by Western sanctions understand that Putin is their problem, not ours... It probably won’t take them long.” "to gather for a quiet conversation - for example in a Moscow office or, more likely, on a yacht somewhere off the Cote d'Azur - in order to... well, let's say, decide what will be best for the future of Russia."
"America is ready to invest up to 10 billion dollars in the Russian revolution"
The further course of events is considered by another prominent representative of the Anglo-Saxon world, honorary professor of political economy at the University of Warwick (UK), member of the House of Lords and the British Academy Robert Skidelsky. “Leaders whose foreign policy adventures end in failure usually do not remain in office for long. They are overthrown either by formal or informal means... They will put pressure on him [Putin] to step aside; they will say that the country does not need to go to the bottom with him. Such a scenario would have been unimaginable a few months ago, but now, as the Ukrainian drama draws to a close, it may already be looming. The Putin era may end sooner than we think,” Slon.ru quotes Skidelsky.
According to Valery Korovin, a member of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation, in Russia, with the help “sixth column” West will play out the same “Maidan” scenario, as in Ukraine, Hong Kong, Egypt, etc. “Maidan technology has been tested. And Russia is no exception. Eat social laws“, there are formulated and refined instructions, there are dissatisfied elites who are losing money, there are agents of the West - its ideological supporters, plus networks purchased over the last twenty years that will become the engine of the revolution,” Korovin foresees. According to the head of the Anti-Fascist Anti-Maidan Council Yevgeny Shabaev, America is ready to invest up to $10 billion in the Russian revolution.
“In exchange for resources, Putin wants loyalty and control”
Moreover, experts point out that a split has developed in the president’s inner circle. According to Bloomberg, “one of the groups has gathered around Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, it is concerned Russia's distance from global financial systems. Another group, including heads of state-owned companies like Rosneft's Igor Sechin and intelligence service veterans, advocates for state control of the economy." (Other commentators include in this group Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov, First Deputy of the Presidential Administration Alexei Gromov). Groups fight while Putin concentrates on foreign policy, and thus slow down the adoption of decisions necessary under the conditions of sanctions, since “Medvedev himself cannot decide on anything.” There is also a dispute over specific assets - the scandal surrounding AFK Sistema and Bashneft is a clear confirmation: “Yevtushenkov is closely connected with Medvedev and his associates, the publication’s sources said, and the latter are in conflict with the security forces in politics, including the head of the presidential administration Sergei Ivanov "
"Medvedev will lose this battle"
Which of the rivals will sit in the saddle? “The conflict is taking place in conditions of limited resources, and in exchange for resources, Putin wants loyalty and control,” explains Olsha Kryshtanovskaya, an expert on Russian elites. From which, apparently, it should be concluded that the president will determine the “survivors”, and, most likely, it is clear who he will prefer. “When economic efficiency and rationalism come into conflict with control and the supremacy of power, Putin always chooses the latter,” Bloomberg quotes political analyst Masha Lipman as saying. " Medvedev will lose this battle, and Bashneft will repeat the fate of YUKOS“, - Stanislav Belkovsky specifies. But the process will not stop there. “While the president is busy with Ukraine, “Putin loyalists” from among the leaders of Rosneft, Rostec, VTB and Sberbank are expanding their influence on the country’s economy to compensate for losses due to sanctions,” Bloomberg quotes the opinion of the director of the International Institute of Political Science examination of Evgeniy Minchenko.
“Putin tried to force Medvedev to work, but what to do with him?”
The famous economist Mikhail Delyagin, in turn, insists that the mistrust of the head of state is explained not by the fact that there is a quarrel over assets behind his back, but by the fact that Medvedev's government is objectively failing to fulfill its responsibilities- This is why Putin, for example, had to head the Military-Industrial Commission. “The leader of the state should not head the Military-Industrial Commission, because he has a lot of other things to do, the military-industrial complex should be headed by a trusted person, and trying to blame everything on Putin is managerial sabotage,” Delyagin laments. - Imagine how Comrade Putin, if he heads this commission, will deal with issues of strategic rearmament and plan this for the horizon of 15-20 years, when his Ukraine is on fire, the economy is a mess, social sphere and a bunch of other problems." The president nevertheless headed the commission. “Putin tried to force Prime Minister Medvedev and many other people to work. But what to do with it? - Delyagin is annoyed again.
“If he is removed from the post of prime minister, the last support of the rationalists will disappear.”
And Alexander Dugin also chalks up the “draining” of “Novorossiya” to the sins of the Medvedev team: as soon as the supervision of the project passed from the hands of Sergei Glazyev and Vyacheslav Volodin to Vladislav Surkov, “Strelkov’s resignation followed, change of leadership of the DPR and LPR... As a result, the “sixth column,” acting on instructions from Washington, managed to neutralize the “Russian Spring” scenario, which was deadly dangerous for the New World Order, by September.
In response, “the desire of the “statists” to fully resolve all issues intensified, this trend became irreversible. Medvedev is in danger, and if he is removed from his post as prime minister, the last support of the rationalists will disappear,” Bloomberg verdicts.
“This is a classic Zugzwang position, Putin has no good moves”
There are more than enough forecasts, but, as we see, Vladimir Vladimirovich is in no hurry to make fundamental decisions, does not hand over the Medvedev government to be “eaten up” by the “siloviki”, “patriots” and the masses. What's the matter? The president’s critics interpret it this way: “He is in no hurry to surrender to folk hands, knowing that then, receiving kicks in the back (although at first it seemed like friendly pats), it would be necessary to return the death penalty, introduce price regulation, revise the results of privatization, and imprison the oligarchs. But that's not all. You will have to cast your menacing gaze on your “friends”, alienate some, bring others closer, and imprison others. It’s one of two things: either you’re with the people or with your friends. But you can’t be friends with friends against the people either. Friends are bloodthirsty and thieving. To save them is to lose the people. And then there are sanctions,” writes Tatyana Stanovaya from the Center for Political Technologies on Slon.ru.
“By retreating, he will lose authority both in the eyes of those around him and in his own eyes. And by going even further along the path of confrontation, he accelerates the process of economic collapse. Both scenarios in the future lead to his loss of power in a fairly visible perspective, adds Andrei Piontkovsky on Radio Liberty. - I am not the first and will not be the last to say that this is a classic zugzwang position. He doesn’t have any good moves.”
Sergei Aleksashenko: “This is Putin’s main secret - he has neither a medium-term, nor even a long-term strategy for the country’s development”
According to economist Sergei Aleksashenko, who now lives in America, the whole point is that the head of state does not have a development strategy, and the movement is carried out by tactical steps, by touch: “Putin has everything to begin the full development of the country. The “fifth column” has been driven into an extra-systemic field, the elections are a plebiscite on trust in the presidential favorites, human rights activists are “ foreign agents", The media are patriotic, bloggers are responsible. What's next? And then - nothing. Absolutely nothing. Because this is Putin’s main secret: he has neither a medium-term, nor even a long-term strategy for the development of the country.”
Representative of the opposite camp Yegor Prosvirnin, “Sputnik and Pogrom” (and the truth, they say, is somewhere in the middle): “The lack of plans for the country’s development and a vision of the future is one of the key features Russian elite».
"ABOUTn became the last soldier of the Empire»
This cannot continue forever and for a long time; the energy of expectations and the conflicts generated by them will find a way out. Stanislav Belkovsky even names a specific date - March 2017. (Note that in March 1917, Nicholas II abdicated the throne, with whom, due to the indecisiveness of both, we have recently been comparing Vladimir Putin). And we are not alone. “The people supported the tsar in 1917. I did the right thing. But how did it all end if the Tsar does not take sufficient and correct steps to save the Fatherland? It is clear that he knows better than the people, but the tsar himself - our last tsar - apparently had the opportunity to think about this more calmly in Yekaterinburg on the eve of the execution - “who knows best.” By the way, in such a situation it is generally impossible to exclude both a palace coup and the murder of Putin: the “sixth column” is too close to him, and his true guard, his supporters from the people are too far away, removed, suspended, slandered in his eyes. Nothing personal: it's just Russian history. The same motives are often repeated there,” Alexander Dugin ominously prophesies.
It is impossible to say exactly what Putin’s future political fate will be like. However, all these foreign policy defeats are visible to those around him. This is the hardest path for dictators...
Negotiations with Merkel and Trump were unsuccessful for Putin, Russian political scientist Andrei Piontkovsky pointed out today in an interview with Apostrophe. Let's start with Trump: this was a continuation of the endless Moscow saga that the great Putin and the great Trump will meet and divide the world and Ukraine as well. It started with the euphoria over Trump's election. They announced to us that they were about to meet in Reykjavik, about to meet in Slovenia. They said that Trump would fly to some special European country to meet with Putin. And Moscow clearly sought this meeting to show how great Putin is, with whom Trump dreamed of meeting.
Now we see that the American president has met with all the leaders, and is now going on a trip to Europe and the Middle East. For the first time, it was emphasized that the call to Trump was at the initiative of the Russian president. In general, Putin again wanted to force himself on a meeting, and the most he got was a meeting somewhere on the sidelines of the G20 - and even then it was uncertain. Here you can recall how at a G20 meeting somewhere in Turkey, Obama and Putin met in a corridor near the toilet and talked for a few minutes. For now, the American administration is offering this format to Putin, which once again emphasizes the failure of the entire operation “Trump is ours” and Moscow’s gigantic plans for a second “Yalta”, division of the world, and so on.
Putin had a conversation with Merkel: she simply lectured him about the persecution of gays in Chechnya and that events in Ukraine did not begin at all as he described to her, that Ukraine has a legally elected democratic government.
And there flashed one very significant moment. Putin understood that his entire bet was on the Minsk agreements and their interpretation in such a way as to push “Lugandonia” (the occupied areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions) into Ukraine as cancerous tumor, failed. He understands this. He had a phrase that many people paid attention to: that, apparently, under this government (in Ukraine) there will be no progress in the Minsk agreements. Essentially, this is a continuation of the same process: a failure of the second plan has occurred.
The first failed plan was to create “Novorossiya” from eight regions (south and east of Ukraine). The second plan, which he pushed quite stubbornly for three years, is an illusion territorial integrity Ukraine with the same bandits, Russian troops. They wanted to integrate all this (the occupied areas of Donbass) into Ukraine, thereby eroding the Ukrainian state. He really hoped so. Moreover, at one time Hollande and Merkel, out of stupidity, due to some misunderstanding, pushed Ukraine in this direction, recommended changing legislation, and so on. But this plan failed. And Putin has already developed a strategy for the third approach: to increase the subjectivity of the occupied territory as independent. The Russian ruble, recognition of “passports” (the so-called DPR-LPR), redirection of property - this is his area of activity.
Putin can, of course, expect elections in Ukraine, first parliamentary and then presidential, in 2019. But I don’t think he has every chance of politically surviving these events. And this is felt in Moscow: a statement of the failure of the entire Ukrainian campaign. The West is taking a very tough stance on sanctions; hopes for Trump have failed. In both the Ukrainian and Syrian directions, Moscow is at a clear dead end. She doesn’t have any fresh ideas other than implementing old ideas—to spoil Ukraine as much as possible.
In Syria, Putin is playing the game. Together with Turkey and Iran, he poses as a peacemaker there. This also continued for several years: truces were declared while Moscow and Assad continued to destroy not ISIS, but the non-ISIS opposition to Assad. I don’t think there will be much prospects here. Although Trump does not yet have any clear strategy regarding Syria. Except two very important facts: the strike on the airfield (by Assad’s troops after the chemical attack in Syria) changed almost nothing militarily, but politically and psychologically it changed everything. He showed that America is ready to use force if necessary, this is not Obama. The United States has one idea regarding Syria: limit Iran's role. It would be nice to throw Iran out of Syria and from the Arab East too. This is where the positions of Russia (recognized as an aggressor country on January 27, 2015 by the Verkhovna Rada) and America will be irreconcilable; Russia should not hope for any improvement in relations with the United States.
Now Moscow is foolishly getting involved in yet another matter, opening a very serious front of confrontation - in Afghanistan, where it has begun to actively support the Taliban with weapons and advisers. The same ones who fight America and kill American soldiers. That is, nothing good can happen for Putin here either.
It is impossible to say exactly what Putin’s future political fate will be like. However, all these foreign policy defeats are visible to those around him. This is the hardest path for dictators. The entire elite, the upper bourgeois class, begin to think: why do we need all this? What did we get in Ukraine, in Syria? What will we get in Afghanistan? So far we have received economic sanctions, while our accounts are being seized and added to the Magnitsky list. And this is connected with one person. Do we need such a person?
This is the classic atmosphere of a palace coup. Moreover, it is no coincidence that rumors have been circulating for several months, spread by part of the power structures, that Putin has not decided whether he will go to the polls, or that he is tired, or sick, and so on. In any case, he does not have any positive outlook. Even if somehow he and his entourage decide that he should go to the polls and be declared president, all the same, as a smart person, he understands that he is dooming himself to six years of deadlock and a slide towards an even greater catastrophe, which is nothing personal Doesn't bode well for him.
“Echo of Moscow,” which often (and helpfully) keeps pace with the foreign (mostly English-language) information “international” (and sometimes gets ahead of itself, anticipating “party policy”), has been pumping up the topic of a “palace coup in the Kremlin” for several months now.
It all started almost a year ago with Belkovsky and Suzdaltsev.
Andrey Suzdaltsev (Deputy Dean at the National Research University Higher School of Economics)_ 15.09.2014: It is not known why in the article on Echo “The European “Glass House”” in the chapter “The Collapse of Russia” the phrase appears:
“now the main version [in the world? in Europe?] of the future collapse of Russia is considered to be a “palace coup” in the Kremlin against the backdrop of an undoubted Russian social revolution.” Whose version? Who formulated it and where?
S. KORZUN - business is clearly not interested in sanctions, except, probably, for a small group... S. BELKOVSKY - ...a split is possible, and sanctions - they can lead to palace coups... the elites are irritated, frightened and plunged into panic by these sanctions, and here even, most likely, those who have not yet come under sanctions, because the unrealized threat is worse unrealized, as is known. Well, not to mention the fact that there are not only subjective ideas associated with the destruction of the life strategies of the majority of representatives of the Russian elite. I think that Vladimir Putin, however, views the prospect of a palace coup as an urgent threat, because in recent years the number of guards has increased greatly and the leadership has changed. The leadership of the Federal Security Service and the Presidential Administration, which is responsible for the facilities where the president lives and works, is changing. You see that the President has become very selective in his foreign trips. It is planned to create national guard on the basis of the internal troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs under the leadership of the former head of the presidential security service, General Zolotov.
Starting from this broadcast, mentions of the snuffbox, Mikhailovsky Castle, Paul I, the palace coup begin to occur regularly in programs and articles on Echo (it’s not for nothing that Belkovsky is a political consultant)
Of course, there are also “palace coups”, but they still lead to agreements with the same opposition and in modern world usually end in fair elections.
Again Belkovsky hammers the topic into the minds of listeners and editors with nails.
S. BELKOVSKY - . ..a change of power is possible only within the framework of some emergency scenario. There are two emergency scenarios. This is a revolution and a palace coup. A revolution in Russia always occurs after the fall of power, and not before, as is known. Therefore, we need to consider only the scenario of a palace coup. It seems to me that Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin himself views it as relevant. It is no coincidence that the size of its security service has grown significantly in recent years, and its leadership has changed
V.KARA-MURZA:
There are people who are “decent” and “advanced.” They dream of Putin's weakness, they dream about it. This cherished thought keeps them awake at night. Here's one solution for you global problem Russia. Second: a palace coup led by former oligarchs who were fed up with these terrible sanctions generated by Putin’s Ukrainian policies.
Coups are actively discussed in historical programs on Echo (at least about Japan in 1945 - broadcast on November 15):
In conditions when some disagreements arose between the military and the two branches of military power, the palace group became more active. I remember this very well, I wrote a thesis about it at the institute. A group of such imperial bureaucrats who felt in this situation an opportunity to act as peacemakers, pacifists, anti-fascists and anything else.
Troitsky, November 24: Of course, a palace coup, given the general misfortune and, in general, horror and the fact that the country is really going to hell, naturally, a courtyard coup by courtyard hooligans against the “boss” would be absolutely logical
December 13, 2014. Mikhail Khodorkovsky does not rule out that Vladimir Putin could be removed as a result of a “palace coup.”
And here is "Broken Focus" with Khodorkovsky.
Almost the entire scenario is spelled out here
A. Venediktov: And, you know, in one of your interviews you said that either the street, this forceful method, or a palace coup. A palace coup may be carried out by conditional security officials, yes, that is, by those people who will continue to follow the path of tightening the screws. I think that Putin here is not the one who is close to the wall, as they say, on the right. And maybe the so-called liberals, those who believe that history should be different, right? Do you see what the probabilities are in the current scenario?
M. Khodorkovsky - I believe that any further tightening of the screws after Putin will be possible only to the extreme a short time. Putin will undoubtedly, by the end of his reign, reach the maximum limit in the area of tightening the screws, because, well, we see the trend towards which he is moving, and we see that for such big country, like ours, there is, in general, not much left to go through.
So, if those who advocate further tightening the screws come to power - well, probably the scenario that will further develop is the one we just talked about: problems in national autonomies, problems in regions adjacent to national autonomies. And, as a result, another turn of the bloody wheel. I really wouldn't want that.
I really hope that we will succeed - we, in this case I say, the European-oriented part Russian society- it will be possible to offer society a different model. This is what we are offering now. And in order for society to agree with this model, we propose that it be divided into two stages.
First stage: colleagues, we are not discussing the issues of Crimea, the social obligations of the state, the role of the state in the economy. That's how it is, that's how it is, right? We are resolving the issue of the rule of law and preparing elections. Then you come to the polls, dear citizens, and decide what you want. But you are already deciding this in fair elections, when all participants in these elections have the opportunity to offer you their programs and honestly defend them. Maybe as a result of this we will choose someone, just like Hungary, there, chose - well, okay, then ours, or rather Olesya, your generation will have to pay for their mistake.
British bookmaker Paddy Power has begun accepting bets that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be removed by the end of next year.December 18.
Big press conference of Vladimir PutinAlexey Anishchuk, Reuters (the same Reuters to which Khodorkovsky told about the palace coup, to which Belkovsky had previously told and to the Higher School of Economics)
How confident are you in your environment that it unconditionally supports you? And to what extent do you see the risks of a state or even palace coup? Do you have a plan in case of betrayal by those around you and a palace coup?
L. Ryabtseva: There are two possible scenarios development of changes in the country, let's call it that. That is, either it is from the bottom up, that is, from the people, the people, as you say, will go to the Winter, or the second is a palace coup.
And now on January 22, 2015 “Echo” and others behind them liberal media publish "top 5 unsuccessful attempts on Russian rulers"
March 12, 2015 Nina Khrushcheva declares: One hope remains: a palace coup. Behind her are Svanidze, Akunin, Larina...And
Albats, Gelman, Muladzhanov, again Belkovsky and again Shenderovich, D. Gudkov, G. Gudkov pick up the topic.
Almost a year after the start of pumping, this topic has already acquired a certain hysterical completeness.
Everyone who spoke about her begins to say the same thing in a new circle, in almost the same words, sometimes poeticizing, camouflaging and aggravating)
S. Belkovsky:
They still love their money more than their Motherland, but they do not have any real mechanisms of influence on the leader, except for one thing: the palace coup itself. But still, in order to carry out a palace coup, you need to have some extensive connections in Vladimir Putin’s security...
M. Koroleva - Dmitry asks: our elite is capable of a palace coup, as it once was.
G. Satarov - Oh, elites of any quality, as history shows, are capable of a palace coup. In regimes like ours, such a condition that sharply increases the likelihood is the presence of protest within the establishment, the presence of part of the elite ready to act. AND external conditions called an authoritative, united opposition. This second condition is not yet fulfilled. And this is the answer to the question why this opposition cannot be allowed to become strong and authoritative.
G. Gudkov already declared on July 31, “The option of a “soft palace coup” can also become the first step towards broad agreements and reforms of the “system”.”
(quoted in part)
Vladislav Bulahtin
Putin was only gone for a week, and even if he didn’t die, it appears he has nowhere to return.
The Russia he left no longer exists.
No matter what anyone says about fishing, about another plastic surgery on a hopelessly disfigured face, or about the birth of an heir to the throne - Putin really no longer exists!
Even if he is released onto the political stage, it will be a different Putin, namely his low-fat, diet, castrated version
There was a coup in the country and there is plenty of evidence of it:
The flag was lowered at the Grand Kremlin Palace.
Coincidence? Well, let's move on!
Kadyrov is almost crying that he has not been able to contact President Putin for the last two days.
Was Putin offended by Kadyrov for his desire to curry favor and take the blame for Nemtsov’s death?
The FSB decided to sew white slippers for an arrogant highlander?
The Kremlin is surrounded on all sides by trucks that came from nowhere
Many, of course, say that these trucks brought equipment to celebrate the year since the occupation of Crimea, but could this not be a “planned” evacuation?
But why didn’t anyone prepare for such a significant anniversary?
Why doesn't anyone know about him?
Why is the media silent?
Maybe Putin was just allowed to leave?
Perhaps Putin was allowed to take his favorite slippers and leave quietly?
Do you remember how Yanukovych “planned” his way out of Mezhyhirya, surrounded by trucks with simple belongings?
Yanukovych with a truck, and Putin stole more - are there really enough trucks?
It will be interesting if, with his departure, Putin manages to change his nickname, which has become a brand, with the letter “X” to something more similar to his FSB-driven “Mol” - for example, Putin “Quiet”, as if as a sign that they leaked him quietly?
But this doesn’t mean anything, are you ready? Read:
Today in Moscow they killed a general who headed Putin’s security for 13 years!
They killed General Viktor Zolotov, who not only led the internal troops of the Russian Federation, but also provided personal security for the president!
Putin did not go about big or small without Zolotov!
Putin's "shadow" was killed! Can a person live without a shadow?
Zolotov is not at all an ordinary person, and when last year he was appointed commander-in-chief of the internal troops, in fact, he was given full power over the country’s security.
Nothing could be decided without Zolotov!
This appointment of Zolotov completely excluded the possibility of any opposition to Putin.
So General Zolotov, who headed the Security Service of the President of the Russian Federation for 13 years, was killed a few days before Putin was supposed to announce his decision to appoint General Zolotov as head of the FSB at the FSB Board!
Also a coincidence?
Blatant insinuation?
The purge is underway, and Zolotov’s death is proof of this...
So, I repeat, even if Putin is returned, it will be a completely different Putin, his castrated version...
Why falling oil prices threaten Putin with a palace coup
Against the backdrop of a growing economic crisis and a rapid decline in cash reserves, rumors have emerged about a split in the ranks of the Kremlin elite, which could undermine the foundations of the president’s power.
When Vladimir Putin was asked during his annual annual meeting whether he was afraid of a “palace coup” that could happen at some point in the future, Russian President forced a smile and replied: “ As for palace coups - calm down, we don’t have palaces, so there can’t be a palace coup" And immediately after that they went viral photographs of the luxurious estates of some members of Putin’s inner circle taken from the air by anti-corruption activists.
However, behind this question lies a very serious and important topic. While the likelihood of a popular uprising against corrupt officials in Russia has always been fairly slim, what might be the consequences of a potential split within the Russian elite?
Falling oil prices, combined with the fallout from Western sanctions, have triggered the most serious economic crisis in Putin's 15 years in power. A sharp decline in oil revenues, on the one hand, will demonstrate how little was done to diversify the Russian economy during the favorable period, on the other hand, will lead to a sharp reduction in the amount of money distributed.
One of the arguments in favor of introducing sanctions against members of Putin's inner circle was that it would deal a significant blow to them and force them to put pressure on the country's leader. If the economic situation continues to deteriorate and political unrest continues, some observers say Putin could face serious problems, and they will come from his own environment.
Most Russian officials are of the view that the West is to blame for fueling the Maidan protests, but many have privately admitted that they are deeply concerned about Putin's reaction. As a result of the sanctions, some representatives of Putin’s entourage lost their business, real estate in the West, as well as the opportunity to travel there. In public, these people are trying in every possible way to prove that their personal losses are a small price they pay for revival Great Russia, but what they actually think is a completely different question. Even among Putin's ideological allies, their loyalty to the leader may falter if their wealth is threatened.
Meanwhile, the “vertical of power” that Putin has built connects everyone. It is impossible to remove the top link without destroying the entire system, and there is no sign yet that anyone in Putin's circle is considering the possibility of starting to plan for a post-Putin future. And the greatest concern is precisely the fact that so far no one even imagines what the post-Putin future could be like. Theoretically, the president could remain in power until 2024. One Western diplomat said: “It is inconceivable that he would simply step down from power. Any scenarios of a change of power in Russia look extremely dangerous and, at least at the moment, highly unlikely.”
Some opposition figures see Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once the richest man in Russia, as the force that can unite people in the anti-Putin movement. Khodorkovsky, who spent 10 years in prison, was released a year ago on Putin's orders to spend time with his seriously ill mother. Khodorkovsky promised that he would not enter politics, but now he says he is considering becoming president after Putin leaves, “for a transition period.”
Ordinary Russians don't take kindly to the oligarchs who made incredible fortunes in the 1990s, when most of the country was struggling to make ends meet, but Khodorkovsky's decade-long imprisonment may have provided some form of redemption for him. That is why he is, perhaps, the only person who, purely theoretically, is capable of uniting individual groups of the elite and more radical opposition groups. However, he is now in exile in Switzerland, and if he returns to Russia, he will be arrested again. Any scenario in which he could mount a serious challenge to Putin's power seems completely implausible.
The liberal street protests of 2011 and 2012 were ruthlessly suppressed by the Kremlin, and many believe that if there is an uprising in Russia, it will be the “senseless and merciless” riot that Alexander Pushkin wrote about. The nationalist forces that the Kremlin had always tried to keep under tight control were released from the bottle as a result of the unrest in Ukraine, where a number of military commanders carried out the Kremlin's orders while dreaming of bringing about a revolution in Russia as well. “I voted for Putin in 2000, and I campaigned for him among my soldiers in Chechnya. Now I'm ashamed,” one influential militia commander, a former Russian officer, told Guardian reporters earlier this year. - I would like what happened here to happen in Russia. A people’s revolution that will help get rid of corrupt officials and establish the power of the military.”
This is another scenario that could theoretically develop among many members of the population that supports Putin, as well as among certain members of the elite, but in the current climate this is extremely unlikely. Commanders such as nationalist Igor Strelkov were quickly removed from eastern Ukraine once they became too popular. As even those closely associated with the Kremlin admit, the main force shaping public opinion is state television. Speaking to the Guardian earlier this year, one former Kremlin official with personal knowledge of Putin said: “Who controls the television controls the country. If the communists take it over, Russia will become communist within three months. If the fascists take control of it, it will become fascist. This is exactly the country we live in.”
Apparently, Putin really enjoys enormous , although a prolonged economic downturn could pose a serious test for him. Meanwhile, it was quite interesting to see how Putin avoided answering the question about the split within the elite. When a Reuters journalist told him that some in his circle were often inclined to blame the president for economic and political problems that had arisen over Last year, Putin laughed and said: “Name me by name!”
Of course, it was a joke, but the president did not even try to insist that the journalist was mistaken. Perhaps Putin, who has an aversion to the idea of a popular revolution and has been building his policy for many years to make it impossible in Russia, should take a closer look at those people who are in his immediate circle.