On Monday, December 26, the summits of the Eurasian Economic Council (EAEC) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) are being held in St. Petersburg. Initially, Alexander Lukashenko also planned to take part in the events.

The first to report that Lukashenko’s visit may not take place was RBC TV channel citing three sources at once on Sunday evening. The press service of the President of Belarus did not answer calls on Sunday. Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov also did not respond to RBC’s request.

On Monday morning, Alexander Lukashenko held a meeting in Minsk on attracting external financing. The press service did not report what the head of state was doing in the afternoon.

At this time, Dmitry Peskov commented on the absence of the President of Belarus at the summits:

The absence of Alexander Lukashenko at the EAEU and CSTO summits will not interfere with the discussion of issues related to integration, RIA Novosti quotes the press secretary of the Russian President. According to him, “all the documents” that will be signed on Monday “were fully agreed upon during the board meeting with the Belarusian partners.” Peskov noted that the signed documents will simply be sent to Minsk so that Lukashenko “can sign them there.”

Speaking about the reasons for the absence of the Belarusian leader, Peskov did not agree with the opinion that in this way Lukashenko allegedly “skimps” (carelessly - Author) with his participation in the relevant meetings:

I don’t think the word “skimps” is appropriate here,” the TASS agency quotes the press secretary of the Russian President.

Indeed, our Belarusian colleagues reported that President Lukashenko will not be able to take part in today’s summits. I think that it would be incorrect for us to talk about the reasons; after all, this should be done by the press service of the President of Belarus,” Peskov told reporters, emphasizing that “Belarus was, is and continues to be our closest ally and partner.”

AND AT THIS TIME

The presidential Boeing-737 took off from Minsk, but returned soon

Interestingly, according to the aviation service Flighradar24, at approximately 15:00 Minsk time, the presidential Boeing-737 took off from Minsk-2 airport and headed for St. Petersburg. However, after a few minutes the plane turned towards Mogilev, turned around in the Bykhov area and returned to Minsk. It is unknown whether Lukashenko was on board; perhaps the plane was simply making some test flights, as required by regulations. The second presidential plane, a Boeing 767, did not take off on Monday.

HAVE A QUESTION

Why didn’t the Belarusian president go to the summits?

Today in Moscow, Vladimir Andreichenko (Chairman of the House of Representatives of the National Assembly of Belarus - Author) spoke out that no important decisions are made in the EAEU, and the union itself is turning into a political project, political scientist Yuri Shevtsov told Komsomolskaya Pravda. - In my opinion, by his non-participation in these summits, Alexander Lukashenko proves the statement that if relations between Belarus and Russia on many economic problems are not finally settled, then the process of Eurasian integration may be slowed down. At least that's what it looks like.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, contrary to expectations, did not go to Brussels for the summit" Eastern Partnership", although he received a personal invitation from the EU leadership. The Belarusian delegation was headed by Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei.

Lukashenko responded to the invitation to visit Brussels only three days before the start of the forum; it was sent to Minsk in early October. A columnist for the Belarusian service of Radio Liberty discusses why the Belarusian leader refused to go to the Eastern Partnership summit.

– we talked about the fact that President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko received a direct invitation from the European Union to participate in the Eastern Partnership summit. However, he did not come to the summit, although he had not been to the EU countries for quite some time. Can this be considered as some kind of demarche?

– As a kind of demarche – of course, it’s possible. And here I wonder what exactly the demarche is against. One of the most important factors is Russia’s position. It’s not that Russia categorically forbade Belarus or anyone else from participating in the Eastern Partnership project. However, her generally negative attitude is no secret. This follows from statements on this subject by Minister Lavrov, Prime Minister Medvedev, and many, many others official representatives Russia.

In Russia, the Eastern Partnership is seen as a kind of way to undermine Moscow’s position, a way to wrest post-Soviet countries from its sphere of influence. I repeat once again, Russia is using different ways. It is known what methods she used in Ukraine. On the other hand, for example, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan went to the Eastern Partnership summits and has now also gone, despite the fact that Armenia is both a political and military ally of Russia. However, there is a general negative background. If Lukashenko went to the UN just to see the beauty of New York, then Russia would have nothing against it. With Brussels the situation is a little different. In addition, during preparations for the summit, it turned out that the “Belarusian case” for this summit is empty. There are a couple of issues that Belarus would be interested in resolving. For example, in reducing visa prices. Belarus has the worst conditions for obtaining visas. And not only in comparison with Ukraine and Georgia, which have no visa at all. Belarus has the most expensive visas. Belarusians pay 60 euros.

– How much do they usually pay for visas in post-Soviet countries?

– In Russia – 35 euros, in Uzbekistan – 35, in Azerbaijan – 35. These countries are by no means the most democratic in the world, but nevertheless. The fact is that in 1996, Lukashenko held a constitutional referendum in Belarus. The West condemned this referendum and did not recognize its results. And as a result, the then standard partnership and cooperation agreement, which provided for visas for 35 euros, was not ratified. The situation is absurd: the general framework of relations between Belarus and the EU now is an agreement between Soviet Union and also by the European Economic Community from 1989! Belarus and united Europe are living virtually according to the laws of the Cold War. However, no proposals were made to conclude a new agreement. There was talk that perhaps a meeting between Lukashenko and Merkel would take place. But Merkel now, in general, has no time for Lukashenko. And among other Western leaders there were no particularly willing to shake Lukashenko’s hand. And so - well, they invited and invited.

– But if Lukashenko arrived, he still had the opportunity to establish new contacts and make progress in solving the problems that you mentioned...

- The decisions of the summits are prepared in advance, the draft final resolution has been “walking” for a long time, so it was already clear that Lukashenko would leave with nothing. It is not a fact that Lukashenko decided not to go as soon as he was invited. Perhaps some negotiations about what awaits him, what he can count on in Brussels, took place during these one and a half months. But the result was, as in Lermontov’s famous story, “when the smoke cleared, Grushnitsky was not on the edge of the cliff.” When Alexander Grigoryevich saw that he had nothing special to offer except the fact of the visit, the Russian factor prevailed. In Moscow they would still say “feh” to him. The point here is not even that this “fe” in itself is significant. Now, if it could be balanced with something, in your own eyes, in the eyes of your people, in the eyes of your elite, in the eyes of Russia itself, then, most likely, the visit would have taken place. Well, since it turned out that there was nothing, Minister Makei went.

​– We discussed the fact that Moscow will look askance at Lukashenko’s possible visit to Brussels last time. During this time, something happened in Russian-Belarusian relations that made Lukashenko think even more about the advisability of a trip to Brussels, and then abandon it?

- In my opinion, no. Some believe that such a noisy, loud Ukrainian spy (in quotes or without quotes) in Belarus was some kind of pebble on these scales - to go, not to go. But I doubt it. It had already been determined that he would not go. Well, there is another “beautiful” coincidence - a week later Putin comes to Minsk, comes to the CSTO summit. Perhaps Lukashenko did not want such a combination - he was just in Brussels with the “enemies of Russia”, and now he shows that he is a friend of Russia. So, let’s decide, Alexander Grigorievich, who are your friends? If this CSTO summit were in two months, this would not be a problem. But when two such different summits take place almost simultaneously, especially when Lukashenko is the host of the CSTO summit, the President of Belarus most likely said to himself: “Oh, it’s better not to go, it will be calmer,” believes Yuri Drakokhrust.

The final declaration of the summit on relations with Minsk states the following: “The summit welcomes interaction with Belarus, which has become more comprehensive, including the work of the EU-Belarus Coordination Group, dialogue on human rights and dialogue on trade.”

"Eastern Partnership" - project European Union, which has the main stated goal of developing integration ties between the European Union and six countries former USSR: Ukraine, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia and Belarus. The idea of ​​the project was presented by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland Radoslaw Sikorski with the participation of Sweden at the EU Council on general issues and external relations on May 26, 2008, the first summit was held in 2009 in Prague. The previous Eastern Partnership summit took place in May 2015 in Riga.

Old Man's demarche is associated with the "gas war"

It seems that Vladimir Putin has only one reliable and predictable ally left in the post-Soviet space - the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev. The leader of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, for unknown reasons, did not come to the traditional final summits of the Eurasian economic union and the CSTO to St. Petersburg. And Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev almost dealt a crushing blow to Eurasian integration by publicly refusing to sign two key EurAsEC documents: Customs Code and a trade development statement.

It became known the day before that one of the main ideologists of Eurasian integration will not come to St. Petersburg for the EurAsEC and CSTO summits. Journalists did not find Lukashenko’s name on the list of participants in the ceremonial meeting and joint photography. On Monday morning, Dmitry Peskov confirmed the suspicions that had arisen, but refused to disclose the reasons for Old Man’s absence. “This should be done by the press service of the Belarusian president,” he said. However, despite persistent calls and requests from the media, official Minsk continued to maintain a significant silence.

Journalists, meanwhile, recalled that this is not the first time Lukashenko has missed important joint events, calling into question the thesis of indestructible friendship. In particular, at the height of the “milk wars” with Russia in 2009, he also ignored the CSTO summit, but this did not prevent the other members of the military bloc from signing an agreement on the creation of rapid reaction forces and a number of other documents. This time, Lukashenko’s demarche is most likely associated with the next stage of the “gas war”, in which Minsk has not yet been able to break the Kremlin’s resistance and achieve the write-off of the debt ($425 million) accumulated due to incomplete payment for fuel already supplied to the republic, and a reduction in purchase price. On the eve of the meeting in St. Petersburg, Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said that the negotiations were unsuccessful and a judicial solution to the conflict cannot be ruled out. However, the Kremlin refuses to consider Old Man’s whims a demarche. “I don’t think that the word ‘skips on events’ will be appropriate,” Dmitry Peskov told reporters. According to him, the absence of the Belarusian leader “de facto will not prevent us from discussing substantive issues related to integration.” Moreover, Belarus continues to be Russia's closest ally and important partner.

In the absence of Lukashenko, Vladimir Putin was practically inseparable from the President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, for two days. On Sunday, as MK wrote, the leaders visited two St. Petersburg enterprises, and on Monday, before the summits, they held separate negotiations in the Konstantinovsky Palace. As a result, an agreement on cooperation at the Baikonur Cosmodrome until 2025 was signed. In addition, the presidents, according to Nazarbayev, discussed the upcoming meeting on the inter-Syrian settlement in Astana. “We will accept everyone and create the necessary conditions for work,” the leader assured.

From the Konstantinovsky Palace, Putin and Nazarbayev flew by helicopter to the center of St. Petersburg, where the two remaining members of the Eurasian Economic Union - the presidents of Armenia and Kyrgyzstan - were already waiting for them. A minute of silence for the victims of the TU-154 crash was not announced before the meeting. However, all speeches by CIS leaders began with condolences to the families and friends of the victims. Vladimir Putin, as host of the summit, briefly listed the main achievements of Eurasian integration in 2016: a single market has been formed medicines, the concept of forming common markets for gas, oil and petroleum products by 2025 was adopted, and the development of universal rules for electricity trade and regulation in the antimonopoly field began. “Much has been done to prepare a new Customs Code, which contains a number of important legal innovations that meet the most advanced world practices,” VVP emphasized.

It was planned that the leaders of the EurAsEC would endorse the Customs Code and other documents in St. Petersburg, after which they would be sent to the absent member of the union in Minsk for signature. “Belarusian partners took an active part in their preparation, there should be no problems with signing,” the summit organizers assured. However, trouble came from unexpected places. President of Kyrgyzstan Almazbek Atambayev first stated that the Kyrgyz people are dissatisfied with the way Kyrgyzstan's integration into the EurAsEC is proceeding. And then he completely refused to sign two key documents - the Customs Code and the joint statement on trade development. “Unfortunately, negativity prevails, and this naturally leaves a negative imprint on the economic effect of Kyrgyzstan’s accession to EurAsEC,” Atambaev said apologetically. As you know, the key problem for Kyrgyzstan is the conflict with Kazakhstan over the supply of Kyrgyz agricultural products. Contrary to the existing agreements within the union, Astana refuses to lift veterinary controls on the border with what it considers an unreliable neighbor. As a result, Kyrgyz products cannot enter not only Kazakhstan, but also the markets of other EurAsEC countries.

However, exactly half an hour later it became clear that Atambayev’s decision was not final. And in the absence of the press, colleagues still managed to convince the Kyrgyz leader not to worsen the atmosphere of the pre-New Year meeting, already tarnished by Lukashenko’s absence. Chairman of the Eurasian Economic Commission Tigran Sargsyan told reporters that the Customs Code was eventually signed by all four presidents who attended the summit in St. Petersburg. And the statement on the development of trade will be agreed upon by them in the near future after clarification of a number of minor formulations.

Saint Petersburg.

Alexander Lukashenko missed the CSTO and EAEU summits in St. Petersburg, thereby depriving them of quorum. But he received a Western emissary in Minsk with a call to “not look at each other like a wolf.” Recently, four pro-Russian activists were taken into custody in Minsk. Although the “father” has long been trying to balance between East and West, this time he “crossed the line,” political scientists say.

The presidents of Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Armenia gathered on Monday for the EurAsEC (EAEU) summit in St. Petersburg. They signed the Customs Code of the Union, but the document has not yet entered into force. The fact is that the summit was missed by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, to whom the agreement will now be sent for signature. But in the absence of Lukashenko, the remaining leaders of the EurAsEC approved the launch of negotiations on the creation of a free trade zone with four countries at once: Iran, Egypt, India and Singapore.

“Moscow decided to refrain from a public reaction, but these arrests were a serious blow to the image of Russia in the eyes of the Belarusian population”

Next, a CSTO summit was scheduled in St. Petersburg, at which it was planned to appoint a new secretary general, but the issue was postponed - not for the first time. Initially, it was on the agenda of the October summit in Yerevan. “This issue was not considered today due to the fact that there was no quorum: you know that one of the delegations of the organization’s member states did not participate in these working meetings,” noted the current Secretary General of the organization Nikolai Bordyuzha, adding that the issue was moved to the next summit: for April – May.

"Don't look at each other like a wolf"

Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov on Monday did not agree with the opinion that Lukashenko is “skimping” on his participation in the summit meeting of the EAEU and the CSTO. “Indeed, our Belarusian colleagues reported that Lukashenko will not be able to take part in today’s summits,” Peskov said.

Lukashenko’s absence will not affect the signing of the prepared documents, he assured. “De facto, this will not prevent us from discussing substantive issues related to integration. All the documents that are being signed today were previously fully agreed upon with our Belarusian partners,” Peskov said, explaining that these documents will then be sent to Minsk for Lukashenko’s signature. “Belarus was, is and continues to be our closest ally and partner,” Peskov emphasized.

While the heads of the EAEU were meeting in St. Petersburg, in Moscow, at a session of the parliamentary meeting of the Union of Belarus and Russia, the chairman of the lower house of the National Assembly of Belarus, Vladimir Andreichenko, suddenly sharply criticized this organization. “No important decisions are made in the EAEU, and the union itself is turning into a political project,” the speaker was quoted as saying by Novosti Belarus. Moreover, “protectionist decisions are made that contradict legislative framework Union State and the EAEU, and this is done almost regularly,” Andreichenko complained.

Let us recall that on Friday the Deputy Chairman of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, Kent Harsted, visited Minsk to discuss with Lukashenko the final report of the OSCE ODIHR on the recent parliamentary elections. At the same time, Lukashenko called on the EU countries “not to look at each other like a wolf,” not to talk, as before, “over the fence,” but to establish full contact.

It is noteworthy that on the eve of Harsted’s visit, the Belarusian Foreign Ministry summoned Vadim Gusev, Minister-Counselor of the Russian Embassy, ​​to the carpet. The reason was a remark made by the director of RISI, Leonid Reshetnikov. The Foreign Ministry noted that Reshetnikov’s statements absolutely do not correspond to the strategic nature of relations between Minsk and Moscow. As the portal Afn.by added, the message from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not say what statements were being protested against. But a day earlier, the Nasha Niva publication published Reshetnikov’s words that the Belarusian language was created in 1926 by the decree of the Central Committee of the All-Union Communist Party of Bolsheviks “On the creation of the Belarusian language.” In addition, he called Belarus a “historical part of Russia” and part of the Russian people.

Earlier, a video appeared on the Internet in which Reshetnikov stated that in Belarus “everything is moving according to the Ukrainian scenario.” “And this line of sort of separating Belarusians from Russians ideologically, historically, ideologically, and even to some extent spiritually, it is simply obvious,” the Kommersant director was quoted as saying. Let us note that Reshetnikov in the past held the post of head of the information and analytical department of the SVR with the rank of lieutenant general, but today he is no longer an official by status, but simply a scientist. Previously, Minsk did not allow itself to call Russian diplomats on the carpet because of statements by unofficial persons.

State Secretary and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Grigory Karasin told TASS that Reshetnikov’s words surprised him. Reshetnikov himself later explained that his words were misinterpreted by the press - he was talking about history, not modernity.

We moved from friendship to banal bargaining

Senior Researcher RISI Oleg Nemensky believes that difficult relations have indeed developed between Moscow and Minsk. “I would not yet give an unambiguous assessment of Lukashenko’s absence at the forum in St. Petersburg, but mutual tension is really present,” the expert told the VZGLYAD newspaper. In his opinion, the relationship has been reduced to a banal bargaining, where the principle “you to me, I to you” operates, which is why contradictions arise.

Nemensky recalled that in early December several pro-Russian publicists were arrested in Belarus. “Moscow decided to refrain from a public reaction, but these arrests were a serious blow to the image of Russia in the eyes of the Belarusian population and among the elites in the post-Soviet space. Lukashenko has never allowed himself anything like this before. We can say he crossed the line,” the expert believes.

In addition, in relation to the crisis in Ukraine, Lukashenko maintains neutrality in words, but in reality he is inclined to the position of Kyiv, Nemensky believes. “They couldn’t help but notice this in Moscow. How could they not fail to notice the evolution of Lukashenko’s own views. Against this background, the European Union is showing increasing interest in Belarus,” Nemensky believes. The political scientist also recalled Lukashenko’s reluctance to host a Russian airbase in his country.

As the newspaper VZGLYAD wrote, in early December, three authors of Russian online media were detained in Belarus - for “extremism” admitted in articles on the resources Regnum, Lenta.ru, Eurasia Daily - Dmitry Alimkin, Yuri Pavlovets and Sergei Shiptenko. Russian Ambassador to Minsk Alexander on business. At the same time, he assessed the articles of the arrested as “driving wedges” between Moscow and Minsk.

And in mid-December in Minsk, at the request of Azerbaijan, Alexander Lapshin, a blogger, famous traveler, citizen of three countries - Russia, Ukraine and Israel, was arrested for two months. Baku accuses him of visiting Lapshin Nagorno-Karabakh and “promoted the separatist regime.” It is worth noting that Baku has brought similar accusations against many Russian politicians and publicists who also came to the self-proclaimed republic and publicly supported its fight against the Azerbaijani state. If Minsk from now on is guided by such criteria as in the case of Lapshin, then in Belarus it is now forbidden for, for example, the famous political scientist and State Duma deputy Konstantin Zatulin to appear, otherwise he, too, risks being put behind bars in the fraternal republic - with the prospect of extradition to Azerbaijan.

Lukashenko is afraid of the “Russian world”

Q Why the EAEU summit did not live up to expectations. Lukashenko did not come to St. Petersburg

Drawing. This is what the Belarusian nuclear power plant in Ostrovets should be like if the Rosatom project is not torpedoed by external and internal opponents of the unity of the Eurasian allies.

Original taken from stanislav_05 in Why the EAEU summit did not live up to expectations.

Only three countries that attended the EAEU summit signed the Customs Code of the Eurasian Economic Union. Kyrgyzstan did not put its signature on the statement on the development of the union’s trade policy, and although it signed the Customs Code, it did not immediately. Belarus did not take part in the meeting at all.

photo kremlin

Pravda.Ru asked the head of the strategic planning service of the Association of Cross-Border Cooperation, member of the expert council of the Center for Strategic Conjuncture, Alexander Sobyanin, to comment on the situation .

- What are the delays?

“We all saw the wrong preparation on the Russian side. Because the absence of Belarus at the joint summit of the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union is a blatant fact. We were talking about signing the code. Instead of this document, projects were signed general solutions. Because what solutions can there be without Belarus? This is much more serious than Kyrgyzstan’s refusal.

Why did it happen so? There was a huge diplomatic scandal in connection with the director’s brutal speech Russian Institute strategic studies, Lieutenant General Leonid Reshetnikov that Belarusians are not a nation, they are part of the Russian people, the Belarusian language does not exist, it was created artificially and Belarus should become part of Russia. This is unacceptable in every sense from the mouth of the director of RISI, since this is a leading research and analytical center established by the President of the Russian Federation.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus gave an official note, very harsh, but consistent in emotions. It all came out in the media, that is, there was a big wave. If everything had stopped there, perhaps the Belarusians would have come. But Reshetnikov gave another interview, where he continued to persist. And his words for everyone are the position of the Russian state.

This is the first point. The second point is related to the fact that Eurasian integration V Last year It stalls very much and goes towards propaganda. Because the Russian side has outplayed the rest with a more efficient bureaucracy, which causes serious discontent among the Kyrgyz, Kazakhs, Belarusians, and Armenians. This background is extremely unfavorable.

And what is connected with the Kyrgyz people is a much smaller issue, related to the fact that the President of Kyrgyzstan is now under great political pressure and regularly makes contradictory statements that can be fully interpreted as both anti-Russian and anti-Eurasian. And then he does exactly the opposite. Kyrgyzstan and I have serious problem on the suspension of the construction of the Upper Naryn cascade of hydroelectric power stations due to corruption.

— A new constitution was adopted in Kyrgyzstan. For what? Kyrgyzstan is one of the most unstable states in the region. Why can’t the Kyrgyz “settle”?

— I would not say that Kyrgyzstan is an unstable state. How to measure? If measured by public revolutions, it is unstable. If we measure the stability of the state, then Kyrgyzstan is no different from other republics. Not a single revolution in Kyrgyzstan has led to any colossal changes in, say, foreign policy or economic realities.

What, Kyrgyzstan is weaker than Tajikistan? No. Or is Kyrgyzstan turning towards the US and China? Not so either. It’s just that Atambayev is leaving now, and he wants to retain his main influence through his Social Democratic Party. Therefore, they transformed the super-presidential republic into a presidential-parliamentary one, with a very large influence of the parliament, so that after leaving it could retain influence. But these are private, internal political issues.

— The President of Kazakhstan proposed creating an EAEU anti-crisis council. In connection with what? What issues may be on the agenda first?

- IN Eurasian space There is a fund of stressed assets, and the anti-crisis fund has been created for a year and a half. It’s just that countries, even with successful economies, for example, Belarus, due to their small scale, are more vulnerable to possible attacks on their economies and financial systems.

And Kazakhstan is the most vulnerable in this regard: it is Kazakhstan among all Soviet countries, including Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Georgia, that has the largest public debt in relation to the gross product and 2.5 times greater corporate debt.

Having a formally very stable and very prosperous economy, Kazakhstan, due to its colossal dependence on external loans and external conditions, is the most vulnerable. Therefore, it is Kazakhstan, more than Belarus, Kyrgyzstan or Armenia, that is interested in the emergence of an anti-crisis instrument in which Russia would act as an economic and political guarantor. This is entirely consistent with Russia's interests.