He explained why Russia cannot now recognize the DPR and LPR, despite the fact that Ukraine is openly sabotaging the Minsk agreements and demonstrating a desire to withdraw from them.
Because then the West will stop putting pressure on the current Ukrainian government to fulfill its part of the agreements, and the possibilities for resolving the conflict will sharply decrease.
“There is pressure. They try not to say this publicly, but when they communicate with Ukrainians without witnesses, and we know this for sure, they quite harshly demand everything that was agreed upon during the Minsk negotiations.”, Lavrov said in an interview with KP.
All parties to the negotiations, except Kyiv, want the consultations to continue in the previous format, emphasizing that sharp unilateral steps could bury previous efforts.
Negotiators save general ideas about the future structure of Ukraine as a single state.
On the other hand, in the unrecognized republics they refuse to take seriously the idea of reintegration into the Nazi “Independence”, which they look at with disgust.
In conditions when Kyiv is sabotaging constitutional reform, and the consequences of the war are so destructive, there can be no talk of any return, they say.
He expects that Zaporozhye and the Kharkov region will soon think about "What is more important for them - the ideas of rabid nationalism or the safety and well-being of people." If aggressive nationalism is abandoned, “Ukraine will join Russia”, the politician with whom Lenta.ru spoke is sure.
The longer Kyiv does not comply with the Minsk agreements, the more realistic this option becomes.
Ukrainian media, meanwhile, are actively disseminating the fantasies of Georgy Tuka, Deputy Minister for the “occupied territories of Ukraine”.
The official, known for his provocative statements and actions, predicts a “large-scale war” with Russia.
The head of the National Security and Defense Council also talks about it. And the first deputy of the last - Mikhail Koval- believes that " Russian troops are breaking through a land corridor" to Crimea.
"I wish it were true, noted one well-known Russian nationalist on Facebook. – But hardly".
Alexander Romanov
The article contains the following persons:
This also applies to Donbass. For many, it is unclear why Russia did not send troops to the South-East in the spring of 2014, why and how the DPR and LPR appeared, why Donbass is not included in Russia, why the Donbass army and the Ukrainian army do not advance, and why Russia “abandoned” Donbass.
For an objective assessment and analysis of these events, it is necessary, first of all, to identify and explain the reasons that led to them, and for this it is worth first briefly recalling what happened in the spring of 2014, how Donbass began and how it ended.
The coup in Kyiv and the attempt to conquer the entire Russian South-East led to mass protests in all cities from Odessa to Kharkov, which resulted in popular resistance to the putschists. In Kyiv, as in 2004, they did not take into account that an attempt to put pressure on Russians only mobilizes them and forces them to unite into a single fist.
The protesters are putting forward demands for federalization, the creation of south-eastern autonomy and the status of the Russian language. Almost no one is making demands to secede from Ukraine.
Everything happens spontaneously and unorganized, claims that the protests were organized by Russia are nonsense of Ukrainian propaganda. At this stage, I was in the thick of things, negotiating joint actions with Donetsk and Lugansk and knew the situation in the resistance movement from the inside. The Russian leadership, after solving the problem of Crimea until the summer of 2014, reacted rather passively to everything that was happening in the South-East.
At the beginning of March, the resistance movement grows with even greater force, three cities stand out for their activity - Kharkov, Donetsk and Lugansk, the seizure of regional administrations begins: March 1 in Kharkov, March 3 in Donetsk, March 9 in Lugansk. The police quickly release them, and the leaders of the protests in Donetsk and Lugansk are arrested.
After the arrests in Donetsk and Lugansk, the leaders of the first wave of the Russian Spring are pushed back from coordinating the resistance, and it comes under the control of Donetsk oligarchic structures.
At the same time, on April 6, regional administrations were seized for the second time in Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkov. With massive support from the population, the DPR was proclaimed on April 6 and the LPR on April 28, and a joint appeal of the republics to Russia to send troops was immediately issued. Thus, on the wave of sincere popular protest, two oligarchic republics were born, making provocative appeals to Russia, which did not react in any way to the proclamation of the republics and their appeal to send Russian troops.
The seizure of regional administrations in Donetsk and Lugansk took place with impunity; in Kyiv they knew very well who was behind the republics. To eliminate the “hotbed of separatism,” the Kyiv authorities would have had enough of a special forces group, but nothing is being done. In Kharkov, which did not follow the lead of the oligarchic structures, special forces from Vinnitsa harshly cleansed the regional administration, and 66 resistance activists went to prison for several years.
In the DPR and LPR, a referendum is being held on May 11, in which they vote for the sovereignty of the republics, while no mechanisms for its implementation are provided. Moscow is silent, Kyiv does not recognize the referendum, but does not take specific actions against the “separatists”.
This silent confrontation would have continued further, but suddenly the factor of Strelkov intervened, acting independently, without prompting from the Kremlin and without coordination with the republics. His attack on Slavyansk on April 12 confused everyone’s plans. Before this, Kyiv turned a blind eye to the “separatist republics,” but then, sensing the seriousness of its intentions, it instantly struck Slavyansk on April 15 and Ukrainian troops entered the Donbass.
Having gained a foothold in rebellious Slavyansk, Strelkov produces a soft palace coup in the DPR, on May 15 he becomes the Minister of Defense of the DPR, his ally Borodai is appointed prime minister. At the beginning of June, Strelkov makes a breakthrough to the Russian border, and on June 6, the militia reaches the border with Russia.
At the beginning of July, the Ukrainian army launches a general offensive on Donbass, blocks almost the entire Russian border and practically encircles Slavyansk. On July 4, Strelkov makes a brilliant maneuver to withdraw troops from Slavyansk and takes control of Donetsk.
In July, the situation in the republics becomes critical, the Ukrainian army is rapidly advancing, and on July 15, shelling of Donetsk begins. On July 25, the republics turn to Russia and ask for support, finally they receive it, and the offensive of the Ukrainian army stops.
By the beginning of August, the situation was such that peace in Donbass, or rather a truce, was needed by almost all parties to the conflict. To begin these processes, it was necessary, firstly, to remove Strelkov and his team, appointing people controlled by the Kremlin in their place, and, secondly, to force Kiev to peace by inflicting a crushing blow on the Ukrainian army, capable of bringing it to the brink of disaster.
Strelkov and his team are convinced to resign from their posts and leave the republics, Voentorg is launched at full capacity, and the militia receives support. With the resignation of Strelkov's teams on August 7–14, the republics are led by Kremlin-controlled Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky, who begin to prepare them for a truce.
The operation to force Kyiv to peace began on August 15 and ended with a crushing defeat for the Ukrainian army. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers perished in a number of “cauldrons”. The fighting continued for some time, and an inevitable disaster awaited the Ukrainian army. By the end of August, all conditions were created for the start of peace negotiations.
The negotiations ended with the signing of the Minsk agreements on September 5. Peace did not come to Donbass, and it could not come, since none of the parties to the conflict achieved their goals and all the signatories did not initially intend to fulfill the agreement.
The above chronology shows how difficult and ambiguous the situation was in the Donbass and the South-East as a whole. The events preceding the coup in Kyiv showed the steady desire of all Ukrainian elites to take the country into the sphere of influence of the West. Russian influence weakened every year, Ukrainian society was already prepared for the inevitable, and a well-prepared coup acted as a trigger.
As in 2004, the population of the Southeast did not accept the coup, and mass protests began, the scope and consequences of which no one expected. Nevertheless, they were doomed, since all the Ukrainian elites worked for the West, there was no one to unite the protests within the country, and from the outside Russia did not take concrete steps to consolidate and support them.
Realizing that Ukraine was turning into an American protectorate, Russia instantly regained what under no circumstances could have been given to the Americans - Crimea. Russia, apparently, had neither the strength nor the ability to return more. For such insolence, as Putin recently confirmed, the West, naturally, began powerful political, financial and economic pressure on Russia.
The organization of resistance led by Yanukovych, which was supposed to begin on February 22 at a congress in Kharkov, failed, and taking measures to return some more territory was clearly not part of the Kremlin’s plans.
At subsequent stages, when the protests developed into a movement of resistance to the putschists and became irreversible, Russia had to intervene in these events and act according to the situation.
It should also be noted that the events in Crimea, Donbass, Kharkov and Odessa were in no way connected with each other and were managed differently. In Crimea, the Russian state acted, in Donbass, Ukrainian oligarchic structures took control of everything, and in Kharkov and Odessa, the resistance movement was led by independent, ideologically motivated people’s leaders, who found themselves at the head of the process completely spontaneously.
In all these events, Donbass had the most difficult share; it had to go through a difficult path from peaceful confrontation to waging a full-scale war. The power in the republics changed three times, from April to May the oligarchy ruled, from May to August - Strelkov’s team, from August - the Kremlin’s representatives. Accordingly, the goals achieved were completely different.
In Donbass, the spontaneous protest of the population was intercepted by Ukrainian oligarchic structures for their own selfish purposes. To defend their business interests before the putschists, they decided to create republics under their control and, after bargaining, hand them over to the putschists on favorable terms. They carried out the same operation in 2004, creating the Ukrainian South-Eastern Republic and then successfully handing it over to Yushchenko.
The proclamation of the republics and the holding of a referendum on their secession from Ukraine was done not at the command of the Kremlin, but contrary to its recommendation not to do this. Then the Kremlin made an unsuccessful attempt in April to seize the initiative from the self-proclaimed republics with the Novorossiya project led by Oleg Tsarev, but the leadership of the DPR and LPR fiercely resisted and the project had to be closed in August.
The background of “separatism” in the Donbass was well known in Kyiv and they did not take any measures; before the Strelkov factor, the republics lived in the Donbass in some kind of their own world, parallel to the rest of Ukraine.
The oligarchic leadership, most likely, would have achieved its goal and would have surrendered the republics in bargaining with the putschists, but the Strelkov factor unexpectedly intervened and confused all plans.
Strelkov organized heroic defense Slavyansk actually proved the possibility of effective opposition of militias to advancing Ukrainian troops, providing access to the Russian border, he transferred the militia to a different quality and this became a turning point in the formation of the Donbass army.
Having taken control of the republics, Strelkov’s group began to return the DPR and LPR to the fold of popular resistance. This fairly frightened the oligarchic clans: for example, Akhmetov tried to urge the workers not to recognize the power of the DPR and start an indefinite strike, but no one listened to him.
Having become a symbol of the resistance of Donbass and having felt the taste of victories, Strelkov begins to introduce the seditious idea of creating a future army for the liberation of Ukraine on the basis of the DPR and LPR militia, which should reach Kiev and even Lvov, which became dangerous for many.
Bringing the situation in Donbass to war, apparently, was not part of the plans of Moscow, Kyiv and the oligarchic leadership of the republics, but the Strelkov factor intervened, and war became inevitable. He organized armed popular resistance to the putschists and thereby forced them to take radical retaliatory measures. Without this, it is unlikely that things would have come to war.
On the other hand, without this factor, the republics would probably have been handed over to the putschists, as was the case in 2004, and the Nazi regime would now be ruling the Donbass with all the ensuing consequences. Therefore, what is better for the residents of this region: war or mass terror from the putschists is unknown.
In the summer of 2014, the situation went too far, Russia did not provide effective military assistance to the republics, the Ukrainian army took advantage of this, went on the offensive and in July had real opportunity capture and liquidate the republics. The forces were too unequal.
Russia, naturally, could not allow this, since, firstly, the liquidation of the republics would be a deafening defeat for Russia, secondly, Nazi terror would be established in the Donbass and, thirdly, Ukraine would inevitably become a military springboard for NATO.
Apparently, it was then that the decision was made to turn on Voentorg at full capacity, remove Strelkov’s team, bring people loyal to the Kremlin to the leadership of the republics, force Kyiv to peace and sign a peace treaty. Subsequently, this is exactly what happened. As a result, the Minsk agreements were born.
Apparently, the Kremlin has set a goal to stop the active phase civil war in Donbass and freeze the military confrontation. Thus, Donbass has become an anchor that prevents Ukraine from integrating into Euro-Atlantic structures. And, in fact, the current Ukrainian regime and the West that supervises it themselves created this “anchor” by organizing a coup d’etat and unleashing a civil war.
It is clear that it is impossible to include Donbass into Russia under the current conditions. This was not originally planned. There are no necessary political and strategic prerequisites for this.
But in Donbass, after all these events, an army was formed and fired upon, the backbone of which is made up of local residents. She is combat-ready and can solve many problems. However, news offensive operations it cannot yet fight against the Western-backed Ukrainian army, and besides, this is not part of the Kremlin’s plans. But the Ukrainian army also cannot advance, because it knows that behind Donbass is the strength and power of Russia. In Kyiv they have not yet forgotten the defeat in August 2014. Only a madman can attack in such a situation.
And the time has not come to break the Nazi regime; it has not yet become so rotten as to collapse under the pressure of the people. Therefore, the DPR-LPR army is not given the order to attack. I think that much more serious tasks await her to liberate all of Ukraine. Everything has its time.
The apotheosis of Donbass’ triumph over Ukraine was the Victory Parade in Donetsk, where the winners proudly marched and a column of Ukrainian prisoners of war was driven away under escort. This became a symbol of Donbass superiority over Ukraine.
Now to the questions “did Russia surrender Donbass or not” and “why doesn’t it help him?”
To answer it, you need to understand that there are the interests of Russia and the interests of Donbass, and they do not always coincide. Putin has repeatedly stated that all his activities are aimed at ensuring the interests of Russia and its people. This is his main task.
The interests of Donbass as part of the whole can sometimes contradict the interests of Russia as a whole, and there are more than enough examples of this. It is clear that for Moscow the interests of Russia are higher than the interests of Donbass. But at the same time, the Russian leadership is doing everything possible to support and protect Donbass, but not to the detriment of Russian interests. If Moscow had not supported the self-proclaimed republics, the DPR and LPR would have long been destroyed by the Kyiv regime, and total bloody terror reigned in the Donbass. Support for popular protests in the Southeast and Russia's participation in supplying the Donbass army with weapons and ammunition provoked Western sanctions against Russia, from which the Russian economy is seriously suffering. The Russian leadership also bears political costs: Putin is not allowed to attend the summits of the leaders of the great powers, the Russian delegation was expelled from PACE, and at all international summits Russia is constantly branded for the “occupation” of Donbass.
For supporting Donbass, Russia suffers considerable losses from which its people suffer, and this must be taken into account. Russia also has its own interests in the West, it is a participant in geopolitical processes throughout the world, solves the problem of Syria and the Middle East, lays transcontinental gas pipelines and supplies Europe with gas. All this is happening with the participation of Western countries, and no one will allow relations with them to be ruined because of Donbass.
Russia, of course, provides real support to Donbass, starting from military advisers, supplies of weapons, equipment, vehicles, supplies of gas and fuels and lubricants, the introduction of the Russian ruble as the local currency, subsidizing social expenses of the republics, maintaining the local government apparatus and many other expenses, about which they simply don’t talk about. The republics survived and live mainly only thanks to the help of Russia.
Therefore, we must understand that, having suffered such losses and costs, Russia will not surrender Donbass under any circumstances. This will be its strategic defeat in the confrontation with the West. In addition, Moscow does not forget that Russian people live in Donbass. In this regard, Kyiv will have to say goodbye to the Donbass territory and population forever.
In turn, the people of Donbass, after all they endured and suffered, remained true to their ideals in the confrontation with the Nazi regime of Ukraine. The attitude towards Russia can be assessed by the huge banner hanging on one of the central avenues of Donetsk “We all have one Motherland – Russia!”, that says it all. The people of Donbass have not forgotten their historical roots and remembers well who, at the decisive moment of Nazi aggression from Kyiv, helped stop the thugs rushing to Donbass.
For courage and perseverance, low bow to the unconquered Donbass! He fights and dies for all of us, for Kharkov and Odessa, for everyone who remained on the other side of the front line! It was Donbass that became the springboard and outpost of the fight against Ukrainian Nazism; it defends the borders of the Russian world and pays with its blood for our common future!
In conclusion, a few touches to today's Donbass. Almost four years later, I ended up in Donetsk straight from a prison cell during a prisoner exchange. The city sheltered us, warmed us and treated us to the best of its ability. Donetsk impressed me with its resilience to adversity and its desire to stand to the end for your right to live freely, and not on your knees before the despised authorities. Which, by the way, is what the population of all other Ukrainian territories is doing now.
Ukrainian television feeds everyone with information that there is gang violence in Donbass, people are starving and the city is empty. In this regard, I can say that I did not see drunks, beggars or starving people on the streets of the city, and the shelves in the stores are bursting with food.
We must pay tribute to the local authorities: despite all the colossal problems, in three years they were able to keep the city from destruction, and the population from poverty and looting. Life in the republic is getting better, people work, receive salaries, pensions and benefits, and children go to school and college. Life there can hardly be called wonderful, but it is not catastrophic either.
Donbass is building its own state, it can be called a pseudo-state, a gangster government and a fiend of hell, but it chose its path and paid for it big blood and is not going to turn away from his path.
After a three-year war with Ukraine and thousands of deaths, at just one mention of a possible return to Ukraine, the answer is sharp: there is no way for us to go there, if necessary, we will all take up arms, but we will not go back!
At the foot of the height there are two villages: Saur-Mogila and Stepanovka. So, they were simply torn to pieces by shells and missiles. The southern end of Saur-Mogila was practically swept away, leaving only the foundations of houses. Stepanovka suffered even more, all along the village there were areas where only skeletons remained of groups of houses and buildings, huge gaps gaped in the walls and roofs from direct hits from shells, even chimneys could not stand, they were simply swept away by powerful explosions.
In some places, entire houses remained, and people still lived in them! I understand that there was a war here and there are no losses in war. And what are these for!? After all, these are peaceful villagers who lived peacefully on this land! And how many of them died here? And who counted them!
The two destroyed villages clearly demonstrate how dearly Donbass paid for its freedom, and it is difficult to imagine that the people and this land can be conquered by the wretched Ukronazis, who have no idea what force is opposing them.
MOSCOW, December 26 - RIA Novosti. The Ukrainian authorities, instead of carrying out the reintegration of Donbass with their own hands, are pushing the region out of the country, State Secretary and Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Grigory Karasin said in an interview with RIA Novosti.
The Kremlin denied reports of attempts to integrate the DPR and LPR into RussiaDmitry Peskov called publications about such plans of Moscow “naive” and “primitive” and emphasized that the Kremlin wants to achieve the implementation of the Minsk agreements.According to him, in accordance with the Minsk agreements, Donbass should be given a special status within Ukraine. “In reality, we see the opposite process. Instead of reintegrating the region into the common political and economic space, the Ukrainian leadership with its own hands is actually pushing the southeast out of the country,” Karasin said.
In his opinion, Kyiv acts with everyone accessible ways. As Karasin pointed out, the Ukrainian authorities do not shun openly cruel and cynical methods - “from stopping social and pension payments, turning off water supply, electricity, and right up to attempts to isolate Donbass by imposing an almost total blockade.” “All this is being done with one goal - to provoke mass discontent and force the region to capitulate, regardless of the opinion of the majority of its population, which does not want to put up with Kyiv’s policies,” he emphasized.
“Such actions run counter to the Minsk agreements (clause 8), which confirmed the need to take measures to improve the humanitarian situation and economic restoration of life in the southeast of Ukraine, and to establish trade relations with our country,” Karasin said.
Answering the question about whether Russia should recognize the independence of the self-proclaimed Lugansk and Donetsk people’s republics, the diplomat emphasized: “As for future fate Donetsk and Lugansk republics, then this should be, first of all, the choice of the people living there." In his opinion, it is the residents who must decide on those forms of state, political, economic and social coexistence with their neighbors that will be acceptable and comfortable for them "I am confident that without direct, honest and constructive dialogue between Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk, a reasonable way out of the current crisis can hardly be found. Alas, this is exactly what the Kyiv authorities are avoiding in every possible way,” Karasin said.
The DPR and LPR are self-proclaimed republics. On this moment They were not recognized by any UN member country. The only state that has recognized them is South Ossetia, but it itself does not have the status of a full-fledged state entity.
Why Russia recognized Abkhazia and Crimea, but did not recognize the DPR
Although outwardly the situation in Abkhazia South Ossetia and in Crimea is the same with the LDPR, at the state level their position is very different. South Ossetia and Abkhazia are the regions where Russian peacekeepers were initially stationed. Georgia's attack on these regions led to a "peace enforcement operation." As a result, Russia has the prerequisites not only to use force, but also to recognize the independence of these regions as a result of open aggression against the civilian population and its military personnel. If there had been Russian peacekeepers in Donetsk before 2014, the situation would have been repeated by analogy with Abkhazia. But this didn’t happen. It’s even easier in Crimea. There was originally a Russian military and naval base here. Moreover, Crimea is a separate public education- republic. Therefore, according to international standards, holding a referendum, especially after the coup in Ukraine, fully complies with UN standards.
In the case of Donetsk and Lugansk, these areas are just regions of Ukraine, they are not republics like Crimea, and there were no peacekeepers or Russian troops there. Therefore, at the official level, Russia cannot recognize the LDPR without recognizing them by the UN or other UN member countries.
In what case will Russia recognize the LDPR?
If the Minsk agreements are disrupted and Ukraine commits some kind of terrorist attack that will lead to mass casualties, or unleashes new war, this will mean Ukraine’s withdrawal from these agreements. Accordingly, Russia will have a formal reason to apply the “last argument of kings” - to recognize the independence of the LDPR and send its troops to Donbass. What will happen after Russia recognizes the LDPR. Chronicle of the collapse of Ukraine
1. Recognition of the LDPR means that in the eyes of the Russian Federation they will become full-fledged sovereign states, and not regions of Ukraine. This also means that Russia will be able to conclude formal agreements with them.2. Immediately after such recognition (due to the Ukrainian attack), two treaties will be signed. The first is the Treaty of Friendship with the LDPR. The second is an agreement on military assistance in case of aggression.
What is the US doing? - But they don’t do anything. In a military sense, even NATO will not be able to compete with Russia - no one will start the Third for the sake of Ukraine World War, especially considering the personal territorial claims to Ukraine of Poland, Hungary and Romania. It is much easier for these NATO countries to observe and “quietly” steal from Ukraine the areas that they consider their own.
3. After the entry of the regular Russian army and after the use of modern means of war, the Ukrainian army, together with the National Guard, at best, retreats, or surrenders to the Russian troops and Donbass militias (the majority of the military in the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not fight against the Russians). However, only the Armed Forces of Ukraine will surrender , but the National Guardsmen understand what awaits them in Russia investigative committee and long-term work on the development of Siberia and the Far North under the supervision of gloomy guys in blouses. At the same time, sanctions are getting stronger, there is real hysteria at the UN, but Russia and China easily block any decisions of the Security Council. Angela Merkel, as the leader of the European Union, receives assurances from Putin that the Russian army will not go to Kyiv, the panic in NATO calms down slightly. In the end, if you look at things soberly, then they have long said goodbye to Crimea and Donetsk. Kiev, in a panic, is drawing troops to the conflict zone and the Verkhovna Rada to protect the government, exposing its flanks. Of course, in the conflict zone, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are at a respectful distance from Russian armored forces and airborne forces.
4. Other regions of Ukraine receive a clear signal: if you want, you can secede from Ukraine. Believe me, there are many sensible people in Ukraine who do not write on social networks and sit quietly, because any manifestation of love for Russia can result in a prison sentence for treason national interests. They just sit and wait for the right moment.
And now such a moment comes. Millions of guns from looted military warehouses and from the conflict zone in Donbass are in the hands of the population. In addition, there will always be “businessmen” who, in the wake of patriotism, will want to “pinch off” a piece of power for themselves. And for this you need to take power.
As a result, taking advantage of the fact that Kyiv has exposed its flanks and herded troops into the “ATO” zone and towards the capital, pro-Russian forces are rising in Odessa, Kharkov, Kherson, and Zaporozhye.
The same thing is happening in the Transcarpathian region and Bukovina, but pro-Hungarian and pro-Romanian forces are rising. There are options here - the Hungarians and Romanians can send in their troops “to protect their citizens.” And there are many citizens there - tens and hundreds of thousands of Bucharest and Budapest have distributed their passports to residents of this region.
By the way, in Transcarpathia the population definitely has thousands of guns in their hands, and they can defend themselves against Ukraine there as easily as in Crimea - by blocking just a few passes in the Carpathians.
5. The Kharkov, Southern, Zaporozhye and Odessa republics are formed. Perhaps other regions will catch up too. The situation is completely out of Kyiv's control. Perhaps many functionaries of the current government, led by Mr. Poroshenko, are urgently packing their bags and flying to their villas in Spain and the USA.
6. Poland is bringing thousands of claims by Polish citizens over their lands and objects in Western Ukraine, which were taken away and nationalized after the arrival of Soviet troops there in 1939. Many publications in Poland, Russia and Ukraine wrote that these lawsuits are ready and waiting in the wings.
Western Ukraine is gradually “swimming away” towards Warsaw, where Ukrainian nationalists are ready to recall the Volyn massacre, in which hundreds of thousands of Polish women and children died.
6. The state of Ukraine is “shrunk” into several central regions. Perhaps the government is changing to a pro-Russian one. But these are already details.
In general, in this place we can confidently say - finita la commedia.
What frightens the residents of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics most now? Yes, this is a constant threat to life, which is essentially taking place in wartime conditions, fear for the future - one’s own and those of loved ones, a constant feeling of anxiety for tomorrow.
All this is true, but most of all the people who have suffered and suffered over these three years are afraid of uncertainty. Who are they, what state do they live in, and why did they turn from citizens of the state of Ukraine into its hostages, and without a specific legal status?
The other day, these people began to have, albeit still weak, hope for recognition of the republics: on February 18, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a Decree according to which documents issued on the territory of the Russian Federation will be recognized government agencies and LDPR organizations, educational institutions, as well as vehicle registration plates. The decree came into force from the date of signing.
While such actions Russian President cannot be considered as actual recognition of the DPR and LPR: the very essence of the government document speaks to this. However, let's talk about everything in order and based on the text of the Decree itself. At the same time, we will ignore idle comments and versions that managed to fill the media space a couple of days before the refusal.
Let's start with the most interesting, or rather the most interesting: what specific documents will be recognized as valid. So, first of all, these are identity documents, educational and qualification certificates, civil registration, vehicles, as well as vehicle license plates issued to citizens permanently residing in certain areas of Donbass and Luhansk region.
The most important thing is that this will give them the right to visa-free entry into the territory of the Russian Federation on the basis of internal passports of the LDPR.
The Decree is very clear in interpreting the reason for this presidential decision: to protect human rights, civil liberties and on the basis of norms international law.
There is one caveat in its text, namely: the recognition of documents is spoken of as a temporary measure established until the situation in the specified territories is resolved in accordance with.
That’s basically all – if it’s in the text. Most likely, President Putin will give the appropriate orders to prepare the necessary regulatory framework “under the Decree” and official explanations will follow, but so far only a page and a half text. At the same time, the Decree does not even contain specific names of the Republics - the concept of individual regions of the regions is applied to them, and therefore it is too early to talk about the actual recognition of the DPR and LPR. But then what is all this for?
First of all, we repeat - in order to protect human and civil rights. After all, in the Republics for three years, in addition to military operations, ordinary life flowed: people were born and died, got married and gave birth to children, ended educational establishments different levels, received qualifications and professions, passports, driver’s licenses, finally sold and bought cars. All this was also documented on the territory of the Republics - you can’t go to Ukraine for this! It is true that these documents were recognized until the publication of the Decree only in the territories of the DPR and LPR, whose residents were previously in a kind of civil legal vacuum.
And of course, this is serious moral support, and in fact, recognition of the people of Donbass and Luhansk region as subjects of civil law.
What's next or a parade of coincidences
The logical question is – what next? After all, if all of the above documents are recognized, then the bodies that issued them must also be officially recognized, and therefore the state administrative entities represented by these bodies. The answer suggests itself - most likely, that the recognition of the republics Russian Federation not far away.
However, this requires an appropriate and step-by-step legal process, during which the specified territories must first be granted a status that allows, according to international law, to claim the possibility of self-determination - for example, autonomy. This is precisely the essence of the Minsk agreements, which, although not implemented by Ukraine, oblige it to change the Constitution accordingly. In addition to the Russian Federation, Germany and France were the guarantors of this at one time.
In addition, let us pay attention to a number of events that took place at the end of January - February of this year.
First of all, this is the resumption of the offensive nature by the Ukrainian side in certain sections of the demarcation line and a significant concentration of offensive resources along its entire length. That is, Ukraine openly ignores the Minsk agreements and, moreover, clearly uses terrorist methods to physically destroy representatives of the command staff of the DPR army (the murder of Mikhail “Givi” Tolstoy).
Next... Today, armed representatives of the so-called. “organizations of ATO veterans” together with militants of radical nationalist organizations have blocked virtually all communications between the LDPR and the rest of Ukraine. Thus, the normal functioning of energy-producing enterprises (TES) is threatened; the agenda is to increase the load of nuclear power plants located on the territory of Ukraine to a critical level. Considering that the above militants have repeatedly announced the seizure of a number of nuclear power plants, this already smacks of man-made disaster continental (without exaggeration) scale.
At the same time, the security forces of Ukraine are not able to resist the militants and have admitted their powerlessness. An example of this is the personal (almost useless) visit to one of the checkpoints of the head of the police department in the Donetsk region, General Abroskin, who left there, let’s say, without a slurp.
Considering the ongoing acts of genocide against the Russian-speaking population of the east, the inactivity and helplessness of the official authorities, and the interest in destabilizing certain government agencies, politicians and people’s deputies, we can safely assume that terrorist attempts in Ukraine are currently part of the official political course.
Now about the statements of the leaders of the DPR and LPR
Recently, they both agreed on the inevitable nationalization of enterprises located on the territory of the republics. This looks like a signal to the former “owner” of Donbass, oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, whose business after nationalization will work for the GDP of the Republics.
And the last thing he said and what alarmed Kyiv and his sympathizers so much: he presented the main task today as liberation by political, and if necessary, by military means, the entire territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
What is this? Just coincidences? Or, against the background of the worsening insolvency of the Ukrainian state and the terrorist threat emanating from it, recognition of the DPR and LPR is a matter of the near future? Moreover, most likely, within the administrative boundaries of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. And it’s possible that someone else will want to “join.” Time will show…