House of the Government of the Russian Federation Photo: lidenz.ru
Vladimir Putin's inauguration will take place on the afternoon of May 7. According to tradition, within a few hours the president submits the prime minister’s candidacy for consideration by the Duma, then the top officials form the government within a few weeks. Thus, no later than the 20th of May, the country receives a new cabinet of ministers. Until recently, it was believed that the cabinet could be radically updated, but the closer to the inauguration, the more often the interlocutors NT The government and the Kremlin say that, most likely, the update will not be radical.
While changes will certainly be required, a new government cannot be formed from old faces, says a Kremlin source. Most likely, the weakest and most disgraced figures will leave, as well as those who have long and persistently expressed a desire to change jobs. Who will leave and who will remain in this case, correspondent NT I found out from officials of the presidential administration and government, as well as in expert and business circles close to them.
Medvedev and his team
The main thing is what the interlocutors agree on NT, - Dmitry Medvedev, contrary to numerous rumors, will remain as prime minister. A high-ranking federal official, who six months ago did not even rule out Medvedev’s early resignation, now says that “70%” Medvedev will remain prime minister. The rest of his interlocutors have much higher prospects. The prime minister himself tells his acquaintances that he plans to continue working in his current place, says a person who often communicates with Medvedev.
Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation Dmitry
Medvedev Photo: kremlin.ru
There are two arguments in favor of Medvedev. Firstly, despite some disagreements with Putin, they remain “very a good relationship" “The president trusts him,” says an official close to the head of state. According to him, Putin appreciates that Medvedev meekly agreed to return power to him in 2011, although he did not really want to do this.
The second argument is related to the current foreign policy situation. After the announcement of new sanctions and an even further deterioration in relations with the West, Putin does not want any serious changes at all, interlocutors say NT. Government sources believe that many plans, including those related to reforms and personnel changes, may be frozen over the next few years. Putin, in principle, does not like changes, and now, when the economy is stormy, they seem even more inappropriate to him.
If Medvedev remains as prime minister, then most likely his inner circle will remain with him. First of all, we're talking about about Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, who is close to him. However, Dvorkovich is unlikely to retain his current extensive powers. “Perhaps you are too overloaded,” Putin told Dvorkovich last fall, criticizing members of the Cabinet for the scandal surrounding the VIM-Avia airline. The Deputy Prime Minister, in addition to the fuel and energy complex, also oversees transport.
An interlocutor in the government believes that many plans may be frozen over the next few years, including those related to reforms and personnel changes. Putin, in principle, does not like changes, and now, when the economy is stormy, they seem all the more inappropriate to him
Interlocutors NT The arrest of an oligarch close to him, a friend with student years, which received large government contracts for the construction of stadiums and airports.
There's too much behind him important topics, and there are too many people who want to take on these powers, notes one of the interlocutors. According to him, if this is a condition for retaining one of the favorites in the Cabinet, then the prime minister will agree to it.
Deputy Prime Minister Arkady
Dvorkovich Photo: kremlin.ru
Perhaps in the new government Dvorkovich will take up the topic of sports. Since the beginning of this year, he has been overseeing preparations for the World Cup. Previously, the relevant Deputy Prime Minister was deprived of these powers Vitaly Mutko, which actually remained out of work. Apparently, Mutko will not remain in the new government, interlocutors are sure NT. However, he did not give up the fight. Recently, Mutko came to Prime Minister Medvedev with a request to load him with work and give him the opportunity to somehow participate in the preparations for the World Cup, even if not in the rank of head of the organizing committee, as before, says a government source. According to him, for some reason Medvedev succumbed to these persuasion, and now the two deputy prime ministers are working together on one event.
Another ally of the prime minister, his press secretary Natalya Timakova, will probably remain in power. True, according to sources NT in the government apparatus, Timakova is tired of working with the media, and she asks to go to another front. For example, she applied for the post of Minister of Culture, says a source in the Kremlin. However, in his opinion, she is unlikely to receive this post due to her difficult relationship with director Nikita Mikhalkov. Putin listens to his opinion on personnel policy in the cultural sphere, and it is to the director that Vladimir Medinsky owes his appointment.
Exodus of the Volodinskys
There is one minister in the government who meets several criteria for resignation at once - he quarreled with important people in his industry, and his chief lobbyist is himself in a difficult position. This is the Minister of Education Olga Vasilyeva.
Vasilyeva is called very difficult, extremely unrestrained and not always understandable to her colleagues. For example, her religiosity sometimes seems excessive, the interlocutor says (they say that she even missed important meetings due to religious holidays). In addition, she did not have a good relationship with the relevant assistant and old acquaintance of the president, Andrei Fursenko. Finally, not everyone in the government likes her commitment to Soviet standards of education and her desire to reverse many of the reforms of the last decade.
Minister of Education Olga Vasilyeva
Photo: nooov.ru
Many people call the story of Vasilyeva’s appointment mysterious. Already at the beginning of 2016, the country’s leadership had an understanding that the former Minister of Education, the unpopular Dmitry Livanov, would have to be sacrificed before the autumn elections to the State Duma. But then there was a long pause, as difficulties arose with the selection of his successor. At this moment, according to the interlocutors, several of Vasilyeva’s lobbyists came to the rescue, including the then Kremlin curator domestic policy Vyacheslav Volodin - Vasilyeva worked under his leadership in the presidential administration public projects. Another of Volodin’s subordinates, the head of the same department, Pavel Zenkovich, became her deputy at the Ministry.
However, Volodin was not the only guide of Vasilyeva to the highest government body - the Russian Orthodox Church also interceded for her, and, in addition, she has a good relationship with the prime minister’s wife, Svetlana Medvedeva, notes one of the officials.
In addition to Vasilyeva, it is likely that other Volodin creatures will also lose their positions in the government. The most talked about departure of the Minister for Far Eastern Affairs Alexander Galushka
Vyacheslav Vododin
Photo: vvolodin.ru
But at the very last years many difficulties arose. Sources NT previously they said that he stopped organizing Yuri Kovalchuk’s group, which was influential and close to Vladimir Putin. After this, he was transferred to Speaker of the State Duma - this is formally a higher post, but he now has fewer administrative capabilities. Volodin’s weakening is also indicated by the fact that soon after moving to the Duma, he lost control over the United Russia party - his protege Sergei Neverov was removed from the key post of secretary of the General Council, and was replaced in this position by the former governor of the Pskov region, Andrei Turchak. Now there are constant conflicts between the Duma and the party. In particular, Turchak did not support Volodin and the State Duma as a whole, who decided to defend the head of the international committee, Leonid Slutsky, accused by journalists of harassment. Turchak said that if Slutsky had been a member of United Russia, “we would have sorted it out quickly.”
Therefore, it is likely that Volodin’s other creatures will also lose their positions in the government. The most talked about departure of the Minister for Far Eastern Affairs Alexandra Galushki. He comes from the All-Russian popular front and was imposed on the relevant Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev. Now the government is increasingly inclined to believe that territorial ministries are no longer needed, so Trutnev has a good reason to get rid of Volodin’s protégé, says a government source.
Make way for the young
First Deputy Prime Minister Igor
Shuvalov Photo: inkazan.ru
The government is talking about a possible change of officials who have been sitting in their places for a long time and would like to change jobs themselves. These primarily include the First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov: He has held his current position for 10 years, and in total he has been in senior positions for more than 20 years. Shuvalov likes to say that he is not averse to changing jobs, the only question is what he should be after leaving the government, says his acquaintance: there are very few posts of equal status.
At the same time, the interlocutors NT We are confident that two key members of the government’s financial and economic bloc will maintain their positions (or even be promoted) - the young minister economic development Maxim Oreshkin, who is called the president's favorite in the media, and the experienced Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.
Prikhodko is tired and does not feel interested in his current job. One of his subordinates said NT, that he is preparing to leave, since he has an understanding that “the boss will not remain in the new government”
Deputy Prime Minister asks to change his field of activity Dmitry Kozak- he came to the leadership of the country at the same time as Vladimir Putin in 1999. IN Lately he periodically complained to acquaintances that he did not feel in demand for his current position in the Cabinet and asked Vladimir Putin to entrust him with more specific work, the interlocutor says.
Deputy Prime Minister and Chief of Staff
government Sergei Prikhodko
Photo: kremlin.ru
Another experienced official is the Deputy Prime Minister and the head of the government apparatus Sergey Prikhodko. He was appointed assistant to the president back in 1997. Now there is a lot of talk about his possible resignation: Prikhodko is tired and does not feel interested in work. One of his subordinates said NT, that he is preparing to leave, since he understands that “the boss will not remain in the new government.” In early February, he became involved in an investigation by Alexei Navalny - the oppositionist spoke about how the official rode on a yacht with businessman Oleg Deripaska. However, this scandal is unlikely to affect the official’s career, the source says.
Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov Photo: vevby.ru
The key post of foreign minister remains in doubt. Many media sources previously reported on the possible departure of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov - he has been in office for a long time and is not in the best physical fitness. Interlocutors NT confirm: there is a discussion of the configuration in the entire foreign policy bloc, which also includes the presidential department for foreign policy(its head Yuri Ushakov has reached retirement age). However, Kommersant later reported that the minister would retain his post for another two to three years.
Agriculture problem
Minister of Agriculture
Alexander Tkachev Photo: kremlin.ru
The most current rumor in the government is the resignation of the Minister of Agriculture Alexandra Tkacheva, say two sources in the cabinet. At the same time, none of the interlocutors knows exactly why Tkachev could be fired. Perhaps a more influential contender has appeared in his place, interlocutors say.
Formally, everything is fine in Russia in this industry - last year farmers produced a record harvest in the entire history of the country. Kachev even announced that American farmers were in a fever against the backdrop of Russia’s success. Moreover, participation in the congress of agricultural producers was included in the final part of Putin’s election program - he came to the farmers less than a week before the elections, when his schedule included only the most important and positive events from an information point of view.
In general, it is believed that anti-sanctions in the agricultural sector have worked, says a person at the market; the products of Russian farmers were partially able to replace foreign ones, he notes. According to him, in these conditions it is difficult to say that the minister is incompetent.
On the other hand, with the implementation big harvest Manufacturers have encountered problems that the state is not yet able to solve. In addition, Tkachev has many opponents among other officials who understand agriculture. These include former minister Alexei Gordeev, who led the Voronezh region for a long time, but recently returned to Moscow - he became the presidential envoy in the Central District. Therefore, it is possible that Tkachev’s enemies will convince the president to replace the minister.
Weak and scandalous
Two more criteria for resignations, interlocutors say NT, is the lack of high-ranking defenders of the minister or a large number of scandals associated with him.
Based on these criteria, at least two officials who do not have serious support may lose their posts. Sources NT include the Minister of Labor as such Maxim Topilina and the Minister of Communications Nikolai Nikiforov. For example, the latter is not taken seriously by presidential aide Igor Shchegolev. He did not play any role in the loudest scandal of this year in the industry he supervised - the blocking story. Although Roskomnadzor formally reports to the Ministry of Communications, in fact the head of the department, Alexander Zharov, coordinates his actions only with the Kremlin and the FSB, they noted in a conversation with NT officials.
In general, Vladimir Putin will have to make changes - the country needs to demonstrate renewal against the backdrop of growing problems, says a source in the Kremlin. Not in vain in the message Federal Assembly in March, the president used the phrase “new government” several times
Previous interlocutors NT they said that, most likely, the Minister of Culture would lose his post Vladimir Medinsky. This is due to numerous scandals, including those surrounding his dissertation. The Kremlin curator of domestic policy even decided to lobby his own man for this post - the head of the public projects department, Sergei Novikov.
Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin
Photo: kremlin.ru
Also in question is the fate of the curator of the military-industrial complex, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. Its prospects are doubtful due to constant problems around , whose missiles regularly fall. For a long time The industry's problems were attributed to a bad legacy, but the patience of the country's leadership was running out, interlocutors say.
Vladimir Putin will have to make changes - the country needs to demonstrate renewal against the backdrop of growing problems, says a source in the Kremlin. It is not for nothing that in his address to the Federal Assembly in March, the president used the phrase “new government” several times. Another thing is that no one has established criteria for such an update, so theoretically it will be possible to talk about this, even while maintaining the backbone of the current composition of the government, adds a source in the White House.
So, history in Russia repeats itself: with a high probability, the post of prime minister in the new government will remain Dmitry Medvedev. On May 8 - the day after the presidential inauguration - the State Duma of the Russian Federation plans to approve the candidacy of the chairman of the government. By the way, on this day the tandem Vladimir Putin— Medvedev will turn 10 years old.
The fact that the Kremlin decided not to change the prime minister “in midstream” is evidenced by Dmitry Anatolyevich’s increased self-confidence.
On April 28, he gave an extensive interview on the program “News on Saturday with Sergei Brilev", where he summed up the work of the Cabinet over the past six years. Medvedev noted that the government's activities took place in unprecedentedly difficult conditions. According to him, the consequences of the 2008 crisis, the fall in world energy prices and the introduction of sanctions against the Russian Federation in 2014 “formed such a set of shocks that our country has not experienced in any period.” modern history, even if compared with the 1998 crisis.”
But the government, the prime minister made it clear, heroically parried these shock blows. He recalled that at the end of 2015, inflation was almost 13%, and at the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2018 it became unprecedentedly low - 2.5%. The unemployment rate has also become a record low for the country: just under 5%.
According to Medvedev, the Cabinet of Ministers acted carefully and wisely. For example, I did not succumb to the temptation to increase taxes during the crisis years. Regarding the introduction of the “Platon” system, which became a de facto tax, Medvedev said that the income from it over three years is estimated at “only” 45 billion rubles. As if emphasizing that he would be in the prime minister’s chair for a long time, Medvedev announced the development of a bill to raise the retirement age. According to him, a “serious examination” has been carried out and the government is “on the threshold” of legislative changes. In the end, the prime minister admitted that he was not going to “go away on vacation.”
Medvedev in Brilev's program stands in stark contrast to Medvedev immediately after the March 18 elections. Then he behaved quieter than water, lower than the grass. Observers noted that he did not accompany Putin during his visit to the election headquarters, although the two of them came out to supporters on election night in 2012, demonstrating the strength of the tandem. This time, when asked by journalists about the fate of Dmitry Medvedev, Putin said that he was beginning to “substantively” think about this topic from today(from the evening of March 18 - “SP”), but all decisions will be made after the inauguration.
And soon a scandal broke out with the brothers Magomedov -“kings of government orders,” which certainly did not add points to the government.
However, already on April 11, during Medvedev’s report to the State Duma, there were signs that the Kremlin had decided on a candidate. In his speech, the prime minister confidently called the last six years “years of testing, testing the strength of our economy.” Why does the speaker of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin, who spoke from United Russia, called the prime minister’s report “very thorough and fundamental.” There was no criticism of the prime minister; deputies only had questions about the situation in certain sectors and the work of individual ministers.
How do Western experts differ from homegrown ones? The ones who fell silent. They, unlike ours, understand Putin’s maneuvers
Alexander Khaldey
In fact, an expert is not a narrow specialist like a gumboil, as Kozma Prutkov said, but a person who understands what is happening much more than everyone else. But regarding the appointment of a new leadership of the Cabinet of Ministers of Russia, experts agreed on one common phrase: “I don’t understand” - and further variations on this theme:
“I don’t understand why Putin appointed Medvedev”
"The sum does not change by changing the places of the terms"
"People are tired of the old lineup and need to let off steam"
"For new game We need new key team players"
"They don't change horses midstream"
“There are no new personnel, Putin has a personnel shortage”
“The same faces again for 6 years, there’s nothing to wait for, God save Russia!”
"A popular president has unpopular ministers. This is a mistake"
And to that similar statements, the depth of which raises questions - is this what the experts are really saying? Or is it a gathering of grandfathers in the yard, gathered to knock on dominoes? A gathering of pique vests discussing whether Hoover is a head or not and whether he would put his finger in Hindenburg's mouth or not? Why invite an expert for an interview if he begins with the words “I don’t understand...” I specifically do not mention the names of the experts, but there are publicists and writers, and doctors of economic sciences, and Putin’s supporters, and opponents, and neutrals, and who is not here.
It’s not even the naivety of the experts that is shocking—it’s the degree of their immaturity that is shocking. Such things can be said by idle Internet residents, wandering from blog to blog and expressing all their accumulated life wisdom in three censored words out of ten written. But experts need to see a little deeper and understand a little more. Otherwise, what kind of experts are these? These are delegates from the party of pensioners, not experts.
Their first reproach to Putin is the appointment of Medvedev. Say, twenty-five again. Weak, divorced from reality, unpopular, the largest anti-rating, boring, and so on. And the deputy prime ministers are also not new, they exchanged chairs - and that’s where all the changes ended. And we are waiting for changes, as Tsoi sang on the eve of perestroika, not by night be remembered. That's all expert wisdom. This is the main pool of popular “talking heads” who constantly comment on what is happening on YouTube.
However, all the answers to all the puzzling questions have long been given. Experts don’t even need to think - just monitor some federal analytical sites. You may not like them, but some materials are simply worth taking note of. You may not like them, you may not agree with them, but you need to know them. Just if you call yourself an expert, then go to the main sites and save Rome, taking into account all the latest news.
And it has already been said more than once - look with an unclouded look at everything that is happening around. And you will see the following: Putin created the most politically weak government for the first time. And for the first time he created the most technically powerful government. There they no longer lobby for the interests of clans, but carry out specific tasks of the president. To do this, you didn’t have to make a long trip “through Far East"and change the Constitution. 77% of the votes given to Putin in the elections were enough.
Why Medvedev? Yes, precisely because the prime minister is no longer a politician dragging his clans along with him, but a character suspended in the air, separated from all clans. Not a queen, but a hanging pawn, as they say in chess. For what? And then, now all decisions in the government are made by the president. Is this what you've wanted all these years? Here you go, get it. Now the government is not a club of interests, but an apparatus of officials without an opinion, to whom, figuratively speaking, they will say “Lie down and die!” - they will lie down and die. But they won’t put forward conditions, be capricious and bargain, “I want it or I don’t want it.” What would have happened if anyone had become prime minister instead of Medvedev? The lines of lobbyists would immediately begin. The elites would begin to believe that it would be profitable to betray Putin and undermine the new prime minister, or to wait. Is this the state with which, during a war, a country must do urgent things and be governed and united?
The Magomedov trial and the elimination of Shuvalov, Dvorkovich and Prikhodko showed that Medvedev is now not a player, but a piece on the board. It is useless to seek his protection - he no longer resolves such issues. He is now a "technical prime minister". This is right? Right. Is it so difficult to understand? Not difficult. So what's the deal? Where does this stream of whining come from?
Next, the expert, in addition to understanding the meaning of the visible process, must observe and compare. Putin weakened the government as a place of compromise between clans and strengthened it, turning it into a working body - and it’s too early to judge, since the names of ministers have not yet been named. But the role of the new government in the political process is already visible. Isn't this the action that should have been taken on the eve of serious changes? Where is your expertise, gentlemen experts?
What is Putin doing by putting the government “in a box,” as they say in the government apparatus? He issues his first Decree “On National Goals and Strategic Development Objectives” Russian Federation for the period until 2024." According to the Kremlin press service, the document contains a number of instructions that cover social, economic, environmental and other issues of the country's development. There are specific things:
1. Ensure a breakthrough in scientific, social and economic development.
2. Provide conditions for stable growth of real incomes of Russians.
3. Guarantee an increase in the level of pension provision above the level of inflation.
4. Ensure that the life expectancy of Russian citizens increases to 78 years by 2024, and by 2030 to 80 years.
5. Reduce the poverty level in the country by 2 times.
6. Improve living conditions for at least 5 million families annually. Over 6 years for 30 million people.
7. Include Russia among the five largest economies in the world.
How and due to what is another question for another conversation. If these solutions are not found, others will find them. Troubles must be resolved as they arise. Nobody will pray for this composition of the government. The role of Timoshenko, Budyonny and Voroshilov in the Headquarters of Stalin's Supreme High Command also changed as the war progressed. What interests us now is not the mode of action of the ministers, but the character of the government - whether it is new or not. There were such specific tasks earlier? Were not. There were more general ones. Because the government was not brought under complete subordination to the president. Now the task cannot be more specific. Why? Is it because for the first time since the times of Gorbachev and Yeltsin, the government is subordinate to the president without outside influence?
That is, we see that the control object has been brought into a controlled state. Roughly speaking, all the Trotskys were removed from there, and now there are solid Kaganovichs and Voroshilovs there. That is, there is no longer “every gopher is an agronomist,” but an army and a commander, as it should be. Orders are not discussed, but rather carried out. Failure to comply with an order will result in a tribunal.
The composition of the government and the content of Putin’s first Decree after his appointment tell every sober person, whether he is an expert or just out for a walk, that Putin is as serious as never before in all the previous times. He is preparing very seriously. Changes have begun, and they began not with the bringing of bright cult and charismatic figures into the government, but with the maximum muting of any brightness in the composition of the cabinet. The Cabinet of Ministers is not a congress of child prodigies and contenders for leadership in the party. The Cabinet of Ministers is routine and subordination. It’s like in the army - you don’t have to think, you have to execute. The president thinks. He also sets tasks. And those who play smart and don’t follow through will give “advice from outsiders,” as Lenin wrote.
Putin comes out of defense and goes on the offensive. He restructured the government for these tasks. Its composition is not a sacred cow. It is built in such a way that the exit is always open and people will change. But when the right time comes for this. Each stage of time has its own tasks and its own composition of the cabinet of ministers.
How do Western experts differ from homegrown ones? The ones who fell silent. They, unlike ours, understand Putin’s maneuvers. They feel the intentions for which all this is being done. They do not experience illusions or joy. Seizing control of an army is always a serious gain before a battle. Trump can only dream of such control over his government. Putin does it. We will see the results soon.
He who has eyes, let him see. And everything beyond this is from the evil one.
There will be no new government large quantity new faces. Most likely, the Cabinet of Ministers will again be headed by Dmitry Medvedev.
The government may include heads of state corporations, and presidential assistant Andrei Belousov may become the first deputy prime minister.
It is possible that Alexei Kudrin will return to power.
It is likely that Igor Shuvalov, Arkady Dvorkovich, Dmitry Rogozin, Vladimir Medinsky and some other officials will leave the government.
On Monday, May 7, the official inauguration ceremony of President Vladimir Putin, who has been elected for a fourth term, will take place. After the inauguration, the government will resign, and, in accordance with the law, a new cabinet must be formed within two weeks.
On Friday, May 4, presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that exact date nominating a new prime minister is “the exclusive prerogative of the President of Russia.” There is no reliable information about what the composition and structure of the new government will be.
Dmitry Peskov answered questions from Gazeta.Ru about candidates for the post of prime minister, about possible “losses” in the government and appointments to key posts: “it’s still okay to ask such questions.”
There is no answer even to the question of what will be published first: the presidential decree on national development goals until 2024 (it is being prepared by the head of the presidential administration, Anton Vaino) or the name of the new prime minister.
On the background complete absence Official information “Kremlin experts”, as well as numerous sources, are giving out more and more new versions of resignations and appointments. Political scientists have reached a consensus on some positions.
Fourth term prime minister
Dmitry Medvedev, it seems, will retain the post of prime minister. In an interview with the Rossiya-1 TV channel on April 28, he made it clear that the government had generally fulfilled the tasks set by the head of state. That is, it worked well, and why leave then?
Secondly, Medvedev clearly stated: “Of course, I am not going to go on vacation yet. I am ready to work and will work where I can bring maximum benefit your country."
The maximum benefit is precisely the post of prime minister, not counting the post of president. And now it’s really too early for him to rest. For example, it’s time to implement pension reform. Medvedev said that the authorities are on the verge of legislative discussions on raising the retirement age.
Finally, Medvedev invited former US President Barack Obama to look at the Russian economy “torn to shreds” as a result of the imposition of sanctions. The invitation to come to Russia suggests that Medvedev is inviting not as a private person, but as a prime minister.
Factions in the State Duma are already preparing for a meeting with Dmitry Medvedev as a candidate for the post of Prime Minister of Russia, RIA Novosti reported on May 4, citing a source in parliament.
Gazeta.Ru previously reported that, according to most sources in the government and the Kremlin, the current prime minister will retain his post.
One of the informed sources close to the Kremlin noted that Medvedev successfully structured work with the government for Putin. In addition, the emergence of a new prime minister would draw attention to him as a likely successor to the president in the 2024 elections, says another source familiar with the situation.
According to him, it is more logical to expect a repetition of the scheme tested at the end of Vladimir Putin’s second presidential term. Then, de facto, two deputy prime ministers competed for the right to become a successor: Sergei Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev.
If such a scenario is used this time, the deputy prime ministers will come under more scrutiny than the prime minister himself.
Where will the president send
If everything is more or less clear with the prime minister (although in reality the president can easily propose another candidate), then with the deputy prime ministers it is much more interesting. According to sources, several deputies will leave the government at once.
In particular, we are talking about Igor Shuvalov, who has been in the civil service since 1998, and has been working as first deputy for almost 10 years. Sources and experts are confident that Shuvalov will not be in the new government.
The media named Moscow State University as one of Shuvalov’s possible places of work. However, two facts speak against this version. The term of office of the current rector of Moscow State University, Viktor Sadovnichy, expires only at the end of 2019. In addition, Igor Shuvalov may not have sufficient qualifications to manage the scientific community - the Deputy Prime Minister did not defend his doctoral dissertation and has the scientific title of Candidate of Legal Sciences.
The most “popular” replacement for Shuvalov is considered to be Presidential Assistant for Economic Affairs Andrei Belousov, who formerly headed the Ministry of Economic Development.
Over the past year, Belousov has been busy preparing a six-year plan for the socio-economic development of the country for Putin, and in the spring, together with Anton Vaino, he worked on a decree defining “national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period until 2024.”
Shuvalov himself, in response to a direct question about his future, said that “I want to work where the president says,” adding that “I am happy with any job that the president gives.”
The plan provides for an increase in spending on healthcare, education and infrastructure by 10 trillion rubles, Bloomberg reported. Dmitry Peskov said that this figure does not correspond to reality. The head of the Accounts Chamber, Tatyana Golikova, estimated the cost of the plan at 8 trillion rubles. Belousov admitted that the “budget maneuver” was being worked out.
It is possible to increase spending on “human capital” and infrastructure by reducing spending on defense and national security, experts say. This process has already begun in Russia. The latest report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) recorded a 20% decline in defense spending in 2017.
"IN Russian army Large-scale work on technical and technological renewal has been carried out. This process is basically complete. And therefore, the peak of expenses for technological re-equipment has passed,” Peskov explained the decrease in expenses.
In addition, Belousov aimed to reduce poverty and create sustainable growth in real incomes of the population, which were declining in 2014-2017.
“This is an increase in real pensions, an increase in pensions above inflation, as the president said, and this is a halving of the poverty level by 2024. These are also very challenging goals, and they have to be achieved,” said the assistant to the head of state.
Contenders for management of the military-industrial complex
During the May holidays, information appeared in the media that Igor Sechin, the head of Rosneft, could become deputy prime minister. The company quickly denied this rumor, saying that under the terms of the contract he was required to work for the company for another two years.
Sechin's return to office is also doubtful because "" - for the first time in its history - announced plans to carry out a buy-back of its shares for $2 billion. The program will begin in the second quarter and will last until the end of 2020.
Another “vice” is the head of Rostec, Sergei Chemezov. He will oversee industry and the military-industrial complex instead of Dmitry Rogozin. He, as well as Arkady Dvorkovich, who is responsible for the agricultural industry, will probably have to leave the cabinet.
A clear hint of Dvorkovich’s departure is contained in the arrest of co-owner of the Summa group Ziyavudin Magomedov, a classmate of the Deputy Prime Minister. The Magomedov brothers (Ziyavudin and Magomed) are suspected of theft, embezzlement and organizing a criminal community.
It is being discussed that Rogozin’s place could also be taken by the current Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, retaining the post of head of the defense department.
The Ministry of Armor, if Shoigu leaves it, could be headed by the governor of the Tula region, Alexei Dyumin, or the commander-in-chief of the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation, Sergei Surovikin.
Experts and the media paint good prospects for Denis Manturov - he can retain the post of head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade and at the same time become Deputy Prime Minister.
The ex-minister is tipped to return
Alexey Kudrin, who previously served as head of the Ministry of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister, could also become deputy chairman of the government. Kudrin, who headed the Center for Strategic Research, was tasked with preparing a strategy for the country's development until 2024. The document was previously presented to the president, and in April of this year it was posted on the CSR website.
It is also likely that Kudrin may be tasked with creating and heading the Center for Public Administration Efficiency, which may report personally to the president. The ex-minister recently spoke with Dmitry Medvedev about how to modernize the state apparatus.
On Friday, May 4, the Center for Social Development presented the report “The State as a Platform,” which contains proposals for the government’s transition to digital. This will be dealt with by the same Center, which will be headed by the Deputy Prime Minister or Minister.
There is a significant obstacle to Kudrin's return to the government. He has a difficult relationship with Dmitry Medvedev. In 2011, Medvedev, as president of the Russian Federation, fired Kudrin from the government after a series of careless statements by the latter.
An alternative to a position in the Cabinet is a position in the presidential administration. British Financial Times with reference to her sources, reported that “under Kudrin” they would create the position of representative of the head of state on international affairs economic cooperation- to restore relations with the West.
Kudrin himself has not decided whether he is ready to return to the government or not. “I’m not going back anywhere and I haven’t commented on this topic for a long time. In my opinion, all these newspaper canards are ahead of the possible events that could happen,” he said. Representatives of Kudrin do not comment on rumors about his “comeback”.
Tolstoy as a mirror of Russian culture
The hottest debate in the media space arises around the figure of Vladimir Medinsky: will he be reappointed as Minister of Culture or not? There are many claims: from a doctoral dissertation allegedly compiled by Medinsky to corruption scandals and the creation of non-competitive conditions for film distributors.
And if he leaves, who will replace him? It is possible that this is Presidential Advisor on Cultural Affairs Vladimir Tolstoy. Or the creature of film director Nikita Mikhalkov - State Duma deputy Elena Yampolskaya. For the post of head of the Ministry of Culture, they are also wooing a candidate from the opposite ideological camp – the prime minister’s press secretary, Natalya Timakova.
Rumor makers are “dismissing” the Minister of Education and Science Olga Vasilyeva. She may return to the presidential administration, becoming an adviser on interfaith relations. The topic of her doctoral dissertation is “The Russian Orthodox Church in the politics of the Soviet state in 1943–1948.”
Some experts “propose” dividing the ministry into two – education, as well as the ministry of science and new technologies. Science will receive a new lobbyist, although it is not a fact that more money will be allocated from the budget for innovation. There is a “ready” candidate for the position of Minister of Science.
The list of possible contenders for the post of head of the Ministry of Education includes State Duma deputies Lyubov Dukhanina and Alena Arshinova and others. Among the “others,” the strong position is of Elena Shmeleva, director of the Sochi center “Sirius”, co-chair of the campaign headquarters of presidential candidate Putin.
The professional community is considering ex-Minister of Education Dmitry Livanov, as well as General Director of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives Svetlana Chupsheva, for the position of chief science officer.
After the tragedy in the Kemerovo shopping center “Winter Cherry,” the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, Vladimir Puchkov, has the least chance of maintaining himself in the government. Doping scandals make the prospects of remaining in the government of Vitaly Mutko miserable. The crisis in the air transportation market caused by the bankruptcy of VIM-Avia will cost Maxim Sokolov the position of Minister of Transport. His place could be taken by the head of Russian Railways, Oleg Belozerov, or the head of Aeroflot, Vitaly Savelyev.
The social bloc will most likely get a new leader. Olga Golodets’ “Vice Prime Minister’s” chair will be given to one of the “strong female leaders.” Sources talk about the head of the Accounts Chamber Tatyana Golikova, the speaker of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko. Among the candidates there are also non-obvious people. For example, State Duma deputy Olga Batalina.
Only three positions remain relatively strong in the new Cabinet: Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, who is gaining weight, the smiling Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin, and the aksakal of the foreign policy department, 68-year-old Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The last of them will leave if only he asks for rest. Instead, sources predict Dmitry Peskov.
However, everyone knows that Putin rarely makes personnel appointments under the pressure of public opinion and likes to present surprises. Old and new ministers will have to take on “unpopular” decisions - from raising the retirement age to introducing new taxes. This makes the prospects of the new cabinet to last the entire six years illusory.
We do not know who exactly acted as the “hot heads” who initiated the sharp increase in the retirement age. But this decision, if implemented, will probably lead to fatal consequences. And do you know why? Because the whole PEOPLE of Russia were offended.
What to hide - in the last five years, the standard of living and income of ordinary Russians has fallen sharply. But we all understood why this was happening. Russia began to rise to its feet - they began to choke us from all sides. If there were no Ukraine, Crimea and Syria, there would be something different. We remember the collapse of the USSR, and, practically, civil war 1994-2000. We survived it all and didn’t want to go back to the old way.
We rallied around our leader because there was no other choice.
We lived on a special emotional high and understood that the Russians (by this I mean all Russians) could not be defeated.
Life under sanctions - what other country, what other people could withstand this? North Korea It’s not worth giving an example - it’s not a country of the right size to be able to deal with sanctions differently. We are the people of a huge country, which cannot be ignored. Someone thought to take us by force - wow!
And we, tightening our belts, endured, worked, hoped. And it was not in vain that they hoped. The sanctions are already being eased, the isolation is already ending.
And what emotional shocks! The return of Crimea (remember, near Gagarin Square there was a poster on the entire wall of a huge building: “Crimea, welcome home!”?), the Olympics, the World Cup, obvious victories in Syria...
And what a patriotic and emotional upsurge occurred during the presidential elections! This result cannot be manipulated; the people of Russia have shown that this is their choice.
The Russians didn’t follow Navalny and others, not because someone forbade them or saved them from doing so, no! People thought for themselves and made their own decisions. It was not the president, not the government that saved Russia from the “color revolution” - it was all of us who saved the country from collapse, on which they bet too much overseas and considered it a done deal.
People like the Russians need to bow at their feet and thank fate for having the chance to live, work, and lead here. And then - bam! - in the gut and even right in the face. And to whom - the whole PEOPLE!
Guys, what do you think you're doing there? There is an assumption that there are people in government offices who do not understand and do not feel how people live in the country. But this is not some other country - this is RUSSIA. And you can’t do THAT with her!
The people are not stupid, they understand everything.
The fact that the retirement age increase was announced on the opening day of the 2018 World Cup was regarded by many people as meanness. What were the organizers hoping for? The fact that people will be passionate about the World Cup and they will, excuse me, not care about their fate? But it was not there! The number, as they say, did not go through.
If it weren’t for this government decision, the whole country would have rejoiced at the World Cup, because everyone was looking forward to it! Now it turns out that only the fans and young people are happy, who are still far from retirement and who cannot understand everything that is happening due to their age.
What can I say - the people were clearly offended, their best qualities were trampled, they showed that the common man is nobody in this state.
Why these hypocritical statements that now we will increase pensions annually not by 400-500 rubles, but by a thousand? So the asking price is 500 rubles? Yes, inflation will eat them up! And is this the price that people must pay with their money and their lives? Sacrifice yourself for 500 rubles a month?!
It is clear to everyone that many will not live to see the new retirement dates. Let's be frank: it looks very likely that the reform is designed to ensure that fewer Russians live to see retirement and that people live less after retirement.
They tell us: in all countries of Europe and almost the whole world, the retirement age is much higher! But this is also hypocrisy: if you compare the retirement age, compare income, standard of living, and the size of the same pensions. And this number does not work, and this cannot be deceived.
We are told that life expectancy has increased. It's true, it has increased. But the quality of life has not improved.
Unfortunately, very few men who live to age 65 and women who live to age 63 are healthy and able to work. As a rule, these are people who are no longer living, but people who are dying out - with a bunch of ailments, illnesses and other things. It is worth understanding that these people simply cannot work as efficiently and productively as young people or middle-aged people.
Let's assume the law is passed. WHERE will these people work in their last years before retirement? If someone is lucky enough to work in government agencies, then nothing. But a private owner cares about his business, and he will not keep an old man, pay sick leave, or put the entire production process at risk.
What will we get? We will get millions of old people eking out a miserable existence for several long years in the hope of surviving until retirement and eking out either odd jobs or working for pennies.
Without creating economic conditions for such a reform, without thinking through the organization of jobs for people of pre-retirement age, such a reform cannot be carried out.
In addition, they still see that there are many people in the country who live quite well for themselves, while breaking the law, underpaying the treasury, or awarding themselves fabulous salaries and bonuses. Everyone can see that the difference between the salaries of managers of individual enterprises and ordinary workers varies not even tens of times, but hundreds and thousands of times. Everyone sees that corruption has not been defeated, and many corrupt officials, including in law enforcement and law enforcement agencies, openly laugh at people and show contempt.
But there is hope that smart people sit in the Kremlin. Today it became known that Kremlin analysts are studying the situation in the country. And it is alarming: more than 80% of the population is against the government’s decisions, not only regarding the retirement age, but also regarding the increase in VAT.
A number of central media reports that the authorities fear not only disturbances, but also open protests in a number of regions. And this certainly means that the government project will not pass.
As an option, there will be mitigation: increasing the duration of the transition period, or the law starting to apply from certain years of birth, or a not so sharp increase in the retirement age.
But the correct solution would be this: to postpone this issue until the economic prerequisites are created. And work hard in this direction. Russia has a lot of reserves here. It’s just that all this is more difficult to implement than raising the retirement age.
And if the government wants to preserve the country that we all put together for so long and again made into a superpower, which the whole world reckons with again, there is probably no other way out. The sooner we start serious economic reforms, aimed at improving the quality of life of ordinary citizens, the faster it will be possible to move on to the measures that the government is proposing today.
One more thing. The Russian government's bill has already been submitted to the State Duma. Everyone understands that if it is adopted (and the majority in the Duma is known to be who), then the opposition parties do not need to conduct any campaigning before the elections to regional parliaments on September 9 - everything will be done for them. And on September 10 we can wake up in a completely different Russia...